The hype has been following Chris Burke around since about 2005, and needless to say, Burke was not worthy of any of it. After the emergence of Hunter Pence last season, Houston finally gave up on the 28 year old and traded him to Arizona. Now after an encouraging spring where he hit .371, with 4 HRs, 16 RBIs and 4 stolen bases the Diamondbacks are scrambling to figure out where to put Burke. As it looks right now, Burke will get significant at-bats bouncing between 2B, 1B and the outfield, and he could be ready to do something with the opportunity this time around.
Andre Ethier LosAngeles Dodgers OF
The Dodgers will apparently have a pleasant problem early this season in that they have four starting caliber outfielders, and only three places to put them. Matt Kemp and Andruw Jones should end up playing mostly everyday, but in a big surprise this spring, Andre Ethier (.365 average this spring) has beaten out Juan Pierre (.169 average) for the third outfield spot. Although the only real category he may help you in is batting average, and it’s hard to believe that Juan Pierre will spend too much time on the bench, Ethier is certainly worth a shot on your fantasy squad while this situation develops,
Eugenio Velez San Francisco Giants 2B,SS
He doesn’t have much history at the major-league level, but the one thing that is clear about Velez from his scattered minor league career and his 2007 spring audition is that he can steal bases like NASA can steal tax money (league-leading 16 swipes during spring training). After hitting around .300 at the A and AA minor league levels, it remains to be seen how well he can handle major-league pitching, but he did have a decent spring, batting .294 and did we mention he steals base like Homer Simpson steals donuts? Also working in his favor, Velez will be backing up Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham at the middle infield spots for the Giants, and those guys have a combined age of around 175.
Chris Snyder Arizona DiamondBacks C
If thinking about filling the catcher position on your fantasy roster makes you sleepy, that probably means you elected to skip one of the top 5 or so options like Martinez, Russell or Mauer and are resigned to let it ride with a .230, 9 HR guy who plays 3 times a week. Well, fortunately enough, there are guys that emerge every year that can at least somewhat mitigate the abject mediocrity associated with the catcher position. One of those guys this year could be Chris Snyder, who showed improvement after the All-Star break last year with .292 average vs. an awful .212 pre-break average. The progress carried over into spring training too, where he hit 5HRs with a .395 average.
Jason Bergmann Washington Nationals SP
Bergmann isn’t going to knock anyone over with his 90 MPH fastball, but he uses it effectively to set up his impressive slider and curveball. After the Nationals cut John Patterson, it is up to Bergmann and the recycled Odalis Perez to carry the pitching staff, and Bergmann is probably the safer option of the two. The Nationals do have youngsters Shawn Hill and John Lannan who could make an impact later this year, but for now, Bergmann could be a smart pickup in hopes that his strong spring (2.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) can carry over into the regular season.
Carlos VillaneuvaMilwaukee Brewers SP
The accident-prone Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff has already been hit hard by injuries, losing Chris Capuano to a possible season-ending elbow injury, and Yovani Gallardo to a knee injury. Gallardo should make it back sometime in April, but in the meantime Carlos Villaneuva and Manny Parra will assume the #4 and #5 starting assignments. Villaneuva is not a power-pitcher, with a fastball topping out in the low nineties, but he is smart, changes speeds well, and was terrific as a starter when the Brewers moved him into the rotation last September. In his 5 September starts Villaneuva produced a 2.10 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP, and he has looked decent this spring with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.
Zach DukePittsburgh Pirates SP
You probably remember Zach Duke from his outstanding 2005 rookie season when he looked like a real pitcher with 8 wins in 14 starts, a 1.81 ERA and WHIP of 1.20. In 2006 and 2007, he proceeded to pitch like Daisy Duke, with an ERA over 5, an unspeakable WHIP. He was downright horrendous last year in particular, with the league batting a Ty Cobb-esque .359 against him in 2007. In Zach Duke’s defense, he was battling elbow problems last year, and he also blames former Pirates pitching coach Jim Colborn for mucking up his mechanics in the beginning of 2006. While it may not be time to release Duke from the fantasy doghouse just yet, his elbow problems seem to be behind him for now and he did have a decent spring, with a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP (zero walks). Not to mention, former pitching coach Jim Colborn is now safely working at Sears.
The Fantasy Sports Forum.com This week's Risers & Decliners lists the players who have had their stock rise in value by emerging as winners from their spring training position battles. Conversely, you'll also find the players with declining stock, due to loss of their starting job, ineffectiveness or injury. RISERS CatcherGerald Laird won his battle over Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the primary catcher for the Rangers. If you have Laird on your team, he's a good second catcher option, but that will be temporary until Texas recalls their future star catcher from the minors. First BaseNick Johnson has emerged as the full time first baseman with Washington after missing almost all of last year recovering from injury. If you drafted him, you probably got him late or at a very low cost because of his injury history. If he stays healthy, he has the potential to hit 20 homers, knock in 90 runs and bat .300. Second BaseJason Nix won the spring training battle in a crowded competition to succeed Kaz Matsui in Colorado. Nix won the job partially due to his excellent defense, but he's never been given the chance to be a full time starter before, so if you're thin at 2B, he might be worth a flier to store on your bench. ShortstopAlex Gonzalez of Cincinnati was expected to start the season on the DL and miss the first 3-4 weeks. This news scared off many owners who considered drafting him, but he's recovered much quicker than originally projected and is reported to be ready by the end of week one. If he's available, grab him and put him on your injured list. His recent results with the Reds indicate that he is capable of hitting 20 dingers, especially playing his home games in a very hitter friendly home park. Third BaseJorge Cantu easily won the third base competition over Jose Castillo and Dallas McPherson in Florida with a huge spring. If he can come close to his 2005 numbers, when he belted 28 home runs and drove in 117 for Tampa, then he'll be a steal. OutfieldCorey Patterson was a dark-horse candidate to grab the starting spot, but he emerged the victor over rookie Jay Bruce and utility man Ryan Freel. Patterson is a Dusty Baker favorite from their days with the Cubs and if can get come close to the player who had previously displayed a power/speed combination, then he can be a valuable player in NL only leagues and a decent 4th OF in mixed leagues. Speed has always been evident with him, as he has posted SB totals of 37, 45 and 32 in three of the last four seasons. He just needs to consistently get on base. Now he'll have the chance - at least until Bruce is called up. Nate McLouth won the center field duel with Nyger Morgan in Pittsburgh. The battle wasn't even close as McLouth put together solid numbers across all categories. In just 329 at bats last season, he posted 13 HRs, 38 RBIs and 22 steals. If he can improve on that with a full season as the starter, then the Pirates may actually have a player worth talking about. However, he must do better than his .258 batting average to be considered a complete fantasy star. Scott Hairston was named the starting LF when rookie Chase Headley was sent down. Now with Jim Edmonds starting the season on the DL, Headley is assured of being a full timer in the Padres outfield. If you project his stats from last year over a full season (263 ABs, 11 HR, 36 RBIs) you may have a pretty solid player. He'll be 28 in May, so maybe his time to flourish is now. He's a solid NL only bench player, with a chance to crack a starting lineup if he gets hot. Starting PitcherJohnny Cueto made the Reds rotation and impressed many spring observers with his impressive stuff. He has great keeper potential, so he's worth watching as the season progresses. He's probably still available in many mixed leagues. Edinson Volquez will also be in the the Reds rotation after a stellar spring showing. He posted a 2.79 ERA in 20 innings and an even more impressive 26K/4BB ratio. Volquez was acquired in the Josh Hamilton trade, so it is becoming clear that the Reds got something valuable in return. Carlos Villanueva will start the season in the Brewers rotation after the release of Claudio Vargas and injury to Yovani Gallardo. In 114 innings last season (mostly as a reliever) he had 99 Ks and a respectable 3.94 ERA. He's a solid pitcher for NL only leagues. Relief PitcherJeremy Accardo will close games for Toronto until B.J. Ryan returns. Ryan suffered a minor setback in his comeback this spring and is projecting a mid to late April return, but that it uncertain. Grab Accardo and get the saves for as long as they last. Kerry Wood was named as the Cubs closer, edging out Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol. It would be optimistic to think that Wood will make it through the season without escaping the DL, since he has only pitched 110 innings in the last three years. But when he's healthy, he's very good. Just make sure that Marmol and Howry are within reach. Tom Gordon will be the Phillies closer until at least April 5th, which is when Brad Lidge is eligible to come off the DL after recovering from knee surgery. If you need saves for the first week, Gordon will fill the bill.
This is one of the teams I was really looking forward to writing about. In fact, I might even end up having a tough time choosing only five players. If it wasn't playing in perhaps the most difficult division in baseball, this team could be competing for the wild card right now. Either way, they WILL be in several years.
Dioner Navarro He's been getting quite a bit of hype after his .836 OPS in Aug/Sept, and it might be warranted. Although his contact rate has fallen in the majors to the low 80's, it was near 90 in the minors, so there is some real upside to his batting average. This is in addition to an xBA of a much more respectable .254 last year, compared to the putrid .227 he actually posted. I can't imagine a 25% hit rate happening again, so he's a very good bet to improve that average to "decent for a catcher" territory. The power is also developing, especially after an 8 HR 2nd half in 202 ABs, to go along with a PX spike to 107. He's guaranteed full-time ABs, since the Rays' backups are awful, and in a solid lineup, so his RBI and Run totals should be above catcher replacement-level. Don't bid more than a couple of bucks in a 2-catcher mixed league auction, but he's certainly a player to target in an AL-Only league.
Andy Sonnanstine I think I've mentioned him enough on this site when talking about my drafts, and maybe in some other columns, so why not one last time before the season starts? He has very James Shield-like skills, but with slightly lower strikeouts rates and more flyballs allowed. Those two reasons are why there's only a tiny chance he will match what Shields did last year. However, with better luck in the BABIP and strand rates departments (due to an improved defense and bullpen), he could put up an ERA in the low-4's, with a WHIP below 1.30. He's certainly someone to take a flier on at the end of the draft while your wading through the Doug Davis', Barry Zitos, and Jon Garlands of the world.
Jason Hammel The winner of the 5th starter competition, I know Patrick had been pimping J.P. Howell (which I absolutely endorse), so I'll change things up and look at Hammel. He's pitched 129 innings at the major league level, with ERAs over 6 and over 7, so one might be tempted to just write him off. However, his minor league stats are decent, with an '07 that saw him post a 75/28 K/BB ratio in 76 1/3 innings. The more exciting stat might be his 50% GB rate, which he duplicated in '06. He hasn't been able to match those GB%'s in the majors, though, so I'm not sure what's causing the dropoff. If he can regain his groundball magic, he has a chance to post a mid-4's ERA with strikeout numbers similar to Sonnanstine. So if you're deciding between a Paul Byrd or Hammel in your AL-Only league, I hope after reading this you know who to pick.
SPECIAL GUEST FRED LYNN ON THE FANTASY BASEBALL GURUS SHOW
Listen Sunday to discuss all sorts of topics with Fred Lynn including his thoughts on fantasy baseball, the 2008 MLB Season, the 2008 Red Sox, and how he thinks some players will do this season including JacobyEllsbury.
Patrick has asked me to finish up the Five Players series, as he is going to be unavailable for the next couple of days. So up now are the Padres, a team with a nice group of interesting players to check out.
Kevin Kouzmanoff As strong a breakout choice as any, Kouz had a big 2nd half in '07, posting a .288 xBA, increasing his power, and dramatically improving his contact rate. I've been hearing that he is slated to hit 3rd, which would sandwich him between Iguchi and A-Gonz, with Brian Giles' still solid OBP leading off. He still needs to improve his walk rate, as it was only 6% last year, as well as his BB/K ratio, which was only .34. Other than that, with a career OPS of .949 in the minors, I really like him this year, but somehow didn't end up with him on any of my 4 teams (I usually drafted Blalock instead).
Scott Hairston It seems like he's been a prospect forever, but it looks like he'll finally be getting a chance at full-time ABs this year starting in LF (CF while Edmonds is out). He has good power, posting consistent PXs in the 120-130 range the last 4 years, improved his walk rate in '06 to a solid 9%, and maintained that last season, has a little speed, and makes decent enough contact. With PETCO holding back his power, it'll be tough for him to have too much mixed league value, but he's an excellent "sleeper" (man, I'm starting to hate that word) in NL-Only leagues.
Randy Wolf I've drafted him too many times to remember, but this year he's an intriguing pick. He's coming off shoulder surgery and he's never been a model of health, but IF he's 100%, he's one heck of a buy, being that he's probably not being drafted in many mixed leagues. Before going down last year, he was posting his best K/9 since 2001 of 8.2 and also his lowest FB% over the last 4 years. He's still a FB to neutral pitcher, though, so PETCO is the perfect park for him. If healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see an ERA under 4 with a nice strikeout total.
Trevor Hoffman In what might come as a surprise, there is a real possibility that Trevor Hoffman loses his job this season. Hoffman's xERA was 4.44 last year, compared to his actual of 2.98, while his K/9 dropped for the 4th straight year to below 7 and his BB/9 increased to over 2 for the first time in 4 years. He's become an extreme FB pitcher the last couple of seasons, which serves him well in PETCO, but even that park isn't big enough for Hoffman to continue posting the 2% HR/F rate he had last year. He's 40 years old and Heath Bell was absolutely dominant last year, with all the peripherals to back up the surface stats. It's possible he hangs on to the job all year, but he could take a real ERA/WHIP hit and I'd be avoiding him in drafts.
Chase Headley Had a huge year at AA last year, posting a 1.017 OPS and 74 walks in 529 ABs. He did only have 20 HRs and Deric McKamey in the Baseball Forecaster notes that he's more of a doubles hitter. Unfortunately for Headley, Bill James' '05-'07 park factors show PETCO as by far the worst park for doubles, with only a 75 index, which means it deflates doubles by 25%. Headley was also 23 already when he posted that AA line, which isn't exactly young for the league, and he greatly benefitted from a .411 BABIP which of course is completely unsustainable. He should be a solid player for the Pads, but I don't think he'll ever become a star and I'm not too excited about his Roto prospects. Of course I would have to revisit that last assertion if he was traded to a team in a better hitting environment.
Johan Santan--MIN--Since 2004, no one has been as dominating as Santana, as he won two Cy Young awards in that time.From '04 to '06 he averaged 18 wins, 230 innings, and almost 250 strikeouts to only 48 walks.He stumbled a bit last season (a season most other pitchers would take in a heartbeat), but between moving to the NL, and getting on a team that actually scores some runs, 2008 could be a HUGE year for Santana.It is possible for him to hit 20 wins for the second time in his career, and approaching 300 strikeouts is within reach.Only two concerns come with Johan.One is he has logged so many innings over the past four years, it is possible an injury could pop up.Second, the Mets have had a knack for getting great new players who seems to under perform once they hit Flushing.I don’t see either happening, Santana is a no brainer as the first pitcher off the board.
Jake Peav--SD--Peavy won the pitcher's triple crown last year, as he led the National League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.Peavy has a dominating fastball and a slider that often has some unhittable break on it.Being in San Diego is both a blessing and a curse.His home ballpark is very spacious, keeping many balls in the yard.The curse comes from the Padres offense.Many times Peavy will end up with a loss or no decision simply because the Pads couldn't score.Peavy only gave up more than three runs five times last season as he mowed down NL hitters.His is just one year removed from a sub-.500 record and 4.00+ ERA season, however, I believe it was just a blip on his career.Although he usually doesn’t excel in the wins category, Peavy is superb in all others and should be the second pitcher taken.
Brandon Web--ARI--The 2006 NL Cy Young award winner had another successful season in '07.In fact, Webb was even better, as he collected three more wins, 16 more K's, and his ERA dropped.Webb goes deep into games, and his 3.01 ERA was second behind Peavy.He neared 200 strikeouts, while keeping his home runs (12) down with quite possibly the best sinker in the MLB.Well in his prime, and with a young, improving team, Webb's numbers should remain among the NLs elite.It isn't unrealistic to expect 17 wins, 185 Ks, with a 3.10 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
C.C. Sabathia--CLE--The '07 AL Cy Young winner had a spectacular season, making it two straight among the majors' best.He was second in wins with 19, and struck out over 200 batters to only 37 walks.Although his weight has always been a concern (290 pounds), Sabathia has turned himself into an ace in Cleveland, and he won’t turn 28 until July.He topped 15 wins for the first time since he was a rookie, and now that the Indians appear to be contenders into the future, Sabathia’s win totals should remain high.
Josh Beckett--BOS--After struggling mightily in his first year in Boston, it appears Beckett has the American League figured out.Beckett powered the Red Sox to their first division title in quite a while, and then was nearly perfect in leading them through the playoffs.Continuing his career on a championship caliber team can only help Beckett's numbers stay at an elite level.Don't expect him to win 20 games again, but 17 wins, 180 Ks, 3.20 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP keeps Beckett as one of the top pitchers in fantasy The Next Five
Eric Bedard, SEA
Cole Hamels, PHI
Aaron Harang, CIN
John Lackey, LAA
Justin Verlander, DET
Rising Star--Justin Verlander--DET--Maybe he has already risen, but Verlander is one of the more exciting pitchers in baseball.This highly touted prospect has not disappointed fans in Motown, to the tune of a 35-15 record in his two seasons.He reached much higher strike out total in 2007, along the lines as what was expected from a guy that routinely hits 100 on the radar gun.Verlander showed that he arrived last season, when he pitched a no hitter against the Milwaukee Brewers.Verlander could be a 20 game winner this season if things break well for him, and he will be spoken about as one of the elite by the end of this year.
Also deserving consideration:Fausto Carmona, CLE.
Falling Stock--Barry Zito--SF--The Cy Young award he received in 2002 seems a long way away. Zito has never been able to recapture the magic from that 23-5 season.Outside of his contract year (how convenient!), Zito has been a .500 pitcher.After signing a 7 year/$126 million contract Zito went out and had his worst season as a pro.Zito's strikeouts have dropped, his ERA has risen, and quite frankly, his team stinks.Stay away from Zito, his best days are in the rear view mirror.
Also deserving consideration:Mike Mussina, NYY.
Make or Break Year--Dontrelle Willis--DET--Once thought to be one of the bright young arms in the majors, the shine on Willis has started to fade.If you really look at Dontrelle's career, he's only had two good seasons.Outside of his rookie year and 2005, Willis has been rather ordinary.He always goes out every five days and gives you plenty of innings, but has been prone to the long ball, and the long inning.On the plus side, Willis is finally out of Florida and on a team that actually wins games (and has more than 50 people in the stands).Dontrelle needs to prove this year that his 5.17 ERA and inflated 1.60 WHIP were the exception, not the rule to his career.However, I am starting to doubt that.
Also deserving consideration:Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS.Is he worth the money?
Risky Pick--Rich Harden--OAK--When Harden has been on the mound, he has been dynamic.However, that has been his problem.Harden has only been on the mound 16 times in two years, and unfortunately can’t seem to stay healthy.It has gotten to the point where Harden needs to put a good, long stretch of good health to get back on fantasy owners good side.In the last round or two he is still worth a flyer, there are reports he has been throwing this week and feels “great.”We’ll see how long that lasts.
Also deserving consideration:AJ Burnett, TOR; Ben Sheets, MIL.
Top Prospect--Yovani Gallardo--MIL--Gallardo was one of the best prospects to come out of Milwaukee since Ben Sheets, and barring a few horrendous games in August, Gallardo did not disappoint.His strikeout rate was slightly below what he had in the minors, but how do you keep up 110 Ks in just 77 innings?Many expect the Brewers to compete for the division crown, and if they do Gallardo has to be a big part of it.
Also deserving consideration:Tim Lincecum, SF.On a better team, he’s ranked higher.
As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, nearly 20 million Americans are now playing fantasy sports with a total market estimated at more than $1.5 billion, including sponsorships, endorsements, contest management and advertising.
For those of you scoring at home, that's a lot of people ... and a crap-ton of money. Give your boss those statistics next time he catches you scouring the waiver wire at work.
Fantasy baseball, more so than any other rotisserie sport, has benefited greatly from the data storing spoils of the Internet revolution. (God bless you, Al Gore, for inventing the Internet). Given the sheer volume of players, games and extensive statkeeping baseball naturally engenders, fantasy baseball could never have grown as much as it has without the Internet.
In the spirit of Internet-based statistical analysis, let's take a look at the some of the most popular fantasy baseball websites in the world, according to Alexa.Com
According to the good people at Wikipedia, Alexa is a California-based subsidiary company of Amazon.com that is best known for operating a website that provides information on web traffic to other websites.
They've got some pretty interesting stuff at Alexa. You can track website traffic by country, category and keyword. You can compare several websites at once and even produce nice, complicated graphs that would make CNBC stock market vixen Maria Bartiromo blush.
Let's take a look at some of the top fantasy baseball sites out there. For simplicity, I've filtered my search results to reflect web traffic originating in the United States.
Not surprisingly, the top five websites are some of the hobby's main league management portals. Site rankings are in parentheses. Keep in mind some of the sites (like Yahoo! and ESPN, for example) have content covering several different categories, not just fantasy baseball)
In the grand scheme of things, that's a pretty darn good showing for fantasy sports, ... especially since most of the web traffic likely comes from one gender.
Here are some of the sites you might consider as "pure" fantasy baseball destinations.
Guess which slugger had the best HR/AB ratio last season? Well, it wasn't Alex Rodriguez - he finished a close second. You may be surprised to see who's ranked first, so to read about #1 and and the rest of the top 20 from 2007, click here: http://www.thefantasysportsforum.com/article.php?ID=226
We will be discussing every imaginable fantasy baseball topic under the sun before the season starts including last minute draft tips, the expert league, and news and rumors around the league. To tune in, click below:
We'd also love for you to call in with your questions. The call-in number is (646) 716-9203 or you can email us at thegurus@fantasybaseballsearch.com and we will answer your questions on the air!
Attention Category Managers: Stolen Base Blue Light Specials
This is probably going to be more relevant in July or August, after one or more of the pre-season, predicted speedsters has failed to meet expectations. For fantasy league leaders, there often comes a point in the season when even a slight boost in a single category may make the difference between finishing in the money and waiting ‘till next year. Just as with any ‘accumulation’ category, though, it is possible to find a cheap, waiver wire player to fill the role of ‘stolen base specialist’.
The following players are largely going undrafted, for various reasons (many are good ones, especially when they hurt in other categories like HR or RBI), and they may be a tipping point in deeper leagues. Whether or not you agree with the notion that speed never slumps, if you are hurting for steals, these players are all projected to swipe at least fifteen bases, and should be able to help.
1. Alfredo Amezaga, Florida. Although he turns 30 in May, and while he may only pick up 400 at-bats as a utility player, he stole 20 in 2006 and has the potential to do so again. His 3-year BA is .260, which can be an issue, but there is no doubt about his speed. 2. Erick Aybar, LAA. Currently battling with Macier Izturis for the Angel’s shortstop job, Aybar has the potential (averaged 35 per season in the minors) to swipe 25 or more should he play a full season. There is also the manager-factor, as Mike Scioscia is not shy about turning base runners loose. If he ends up with the starting job, or even in a regular platoon with Izturis, look for Aybar to turn on the jets. 3. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay. Even if he hits ninth in the Rays’ order, manager Joe Maddon is likely to give the shortstop the green light on the basepaths. With Tampa Bay’s improved offense, Bartlett will provide a fast complement to B.J. Upton on the dome’s artificial track. 4. Rajah Davis, San Francisco. Unproven, but on the post-Bonds Giants, the team will have little choice but to try to manufacture runs. That, along with Davis’ inherent speed, could add up to a 40 SB season for the outfielder. Even if he is the fourth outfielder in San Francisco, Dave Roberts is only getting older, and Davis should see considerable playing time in 2008. 5. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia. Victorino is the player on this list that is most likely to not be available. His 37 steals last year seemingly came out of nowhere, and his ability to hit in the .285-.290 range make him multi-dimensional, but he is often overlooked on draft day because of his lack of power. Given the surrounding cast of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Pat Burrell, he should also score at least 80 runs.
Four more for the hip pocket: 1. Willie Bloomquist, Seattle. 2. Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh. 3. Joey Gathright, Kansas City. 4. Norris Hopper, Cincinnati.
The Fantasy Sports Forum.com My favorite league's draft was this weekend and I found that there were some very eye-opening winning bids at our auction. This is a ten team, NL only league, head-to-head format with keepers. Here are the auction salaries of a few interesting players and my comment. You decide if these players are overpriced or a good value in a 26 player, $260 salary cap format.
Overpriced: Johan Santana, $52. Yes, Santana is a great pitcher, but is he that much better than Jake Peavey? I don't think so, and Peavey went for $40 last season, before winning his Cy Young award. While Santana will likely win about 19-20 games and get about 230 Ks, for that price he'll need to win 25 games and I don't see that happening.
Ty Wigginton, $25. Did I somehow miss when this guy became a top four third baseman? I know he also qualifies at second base, but for someone who has never knocked in more than 79 RBIs or hit higher than .277, this is a bit pricey.
Jose Reyes, $51. Since this is my player, I can't point any fingers, except at the guy who got into a bidding war with me. The only way Reyes makes this price a worthwhile value is if he combines his 75-80 steals with 20+ homers and a .300 average. His career high for HRs is 19, set in 2006.
Dan Haren, $45. Another excellent starter, but at the end of the year his total points will be about the same as the 25th ranked batter. While top end starters are hard to come by, you could get two very good ones for this price.
Miguel Tejada, $40. The numbers from Tejada in 2007 (18-81-.295 in 54 ABs) are similar to what we'll probably be see in 2008. He's going to be 32 in May and is now past his prime, but this owner paid like he was coming off his previous MVP season. Roy Oswalt, $35. His strikeouts have gone down three seasons in a row and he's coming off a 14-7 season, yet his price indicates it's still 2005. Still a very good pitcher, just not dominant anymore.
Good Value: Pedro Feliz, $6. The move from one of the most pitcher friendly parks (San Francisco) to possibly the most hitter friendly park (Philadelphia) will take a solid HR hitter (four consecutive seasons of 20+ HRs) and boost him into the 30+ homer category. If he does that, he's a steal at six bucks.
James Loney, $25. While other top end first basemen were going in the low forty dollar range, Loney was bought at a reasonable price. This could turn into a very good value if his 2007 numbers (15-67-.331 in 344 ABs) project to a full season in 2008.
Michael Bourn, $7. From his small sample of playing time last season (119 ABs), the one category which he clearly excelled in was steals, with 18. Now as the full time starter in Houston, he has the potential to rack up about 50 SBs. If he keeps his average a respectable .275-.290, then he will have been a worthy return on a small investment.
Wait and See: Albert Pujols, $41. Without a doubt, Pujols' elbow aliment has every fantasy owner concerned. If he manages to make it through the season without hitting the DL, then this is a very good price for one of the top three hitters in the majors.
Carlos Delgado, $15. Delgado's sharp decline in his power numbers from last season, as well as a hip impingement injury in the exhibition season, scared off many bidders. If he can stay healthy and get back to his usual 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs, then this will turn out to be an excellent value.
Carlos Marmol, $25. If he remains the setup man, then the high strikeouts will just not be enough to justify the price. If he becomes the Cubs closer sooner rather than later, he may end up as one of the top closers in the NL.
Kosuke Fukudome, $15. All we can go by are his Japanese league stats to give us an indication of his talent. He has the potential to drive in a plenty of runs hitting in the middle of the Cubs potent lineup and Lou Piniella has even said that he'll give the green light to steal. If all goes well, he could shine in multiple categories and his fantasy owners will be saying "aragato".
I'm back with Part 2 of the MDC ADP SP analysis. This time I'll be looking at the undervalued pitchers and those outside the top 250. For Part 1, looking at the overvalued starters, click here.
Undervalued
James Shields(109th overall, 22nd amongst SP)- It's not too surprising that a player like Shields who broke out seemingly out of nowhere last year isn't getting the full respect he deserves. However, if you looked under the surface stats, it was clear he always had the skills. In fact, to toot my own horn, I drafted him in both my leagues last year, one of which was a semi-shallow 13 team mixed league. He doesn't walk anyone and has an above average K rate, and his 3.53 xERA last season supports that he's no fluke. His only negative is he could afford to become more of a groundball pitcher as he only induced 43% on the ground last year. But with an improved Rays bullpen and defense and a solid offense behind him, I actually have him ranked as the 11th most valuable SP.
Tim Lincecum(119, 27)- I know I know, the Giants offense is horrible. Well we all know how unpredictable wins are, so I prefer to buy skills and not chase wins. Who knows, maybe the Giants score 6 R/G for Lince, but only 2 for their other starters! Anyway, back to the skills. Besides the worry of the mythical "sophomore slump", this is a skill set worthy of drooling over. A 47% GB rate and a very high K rate (9.2 K/9 in 2007) offset the elevated walk rate. If he could just get his BB/9 down to 3.5, you're looking at a low 3's ERA. Even if he just improves slightly to about 3.8 BB/9, you'd still get a mid 3 ERA. And of course we all know his stuff speaks for itself, so that isn't going to be questioned. I have him as the 20th most valuable SP.
AJ Burnett(136, 33)- The injury risk is probably keeping his ADP down. Also, I seem to always read the same ridiculous sentence when talking about Burnett- "He's not good, he's a career .500 pitcher!" Ok, I think we're all smart enough to realize using Burnett's W-L record to evaluate his career is a joke. Anyway, this is a guy who's somewhat similar to Lincecum. Excellent K/9, but just a mediocre walk rate. The difference is Burnett's GB% has been over 50% the last 4 years, and was a fantastic 55% last year. His xERA has been 3.47 or below the last 4 years, including 3.07 last year! The only worry about him is health, but he's got one of the best skill sets in baseball. He's my 21st most valuable SP, right behind Lincecum.
Tim Hudson(158, 39)- Doesn't rack up the K's, but with a GB% always around 60% and a good walk rate, you'll always have an ERA in the low-to-mid 3's, with a solid WHIP. Add in the very good Braves offense and you get my 25th most valuable SP.
Dustin McGowan(169, 44)- This wouldn't be a legitimate undervalued column if it didn't include McGowan's name, right? I really don't understand this ADP because he may be THE most hyped "sleeper" on message boards, blogs, and fantasy sites across the web. Has all this hype had no impact on his ADP? Anyway, as you've probably read everywhere else, here's another possessor of the skill trifecta. A 53% GB rate last year, a K rate nearing 8, and a decent walk rate just over 3. This guy was a top pitching prospect before TJ surgery several years ago, and his stuff is electric. The increase in innings is certainly a concern, but this is an exciting skill set, and one that has contributed to my valuation of him as the 18th most valuable SP.
Derek Lowe(181, 48)- Not the type of pitcher I normally endorse, as he's not the strikeout pitcher I usually draft. He's very similar to Hudson, though, with a GB rate consistently in the mid-60's, which always puts him near the top of the leaderboards in that category. He has a good walk rate, below 3, and his usual below average K rate spiked dramatically last year to 6.6. At 34, it's doubtful the K/9 spike will last, but he's had xERAs in the low 3's the last 3 years, so it seems as if he's actually got some ERA upside. I have him valued 27th amongst SPs.
Outside the Top 250
Greg Maddux- One of my favorite pitchers/players of all time, as a huge Braves fan, and him being a long-time Brave. His surface stats show a pitcher who's declining and will give you a 4+ ERA with few strikeouts. However, his xERA's the last 4 years (when his ERA has been over 4) have all been under 4, showing some potential upside. He still walks no one (1.1 BB/9 last year), and consistently has a GB% in the low 50's. He'll always help your WHIP, which seems to be an undervalued stat in fantasy baseball. I have him as the 42nd most valuable SP.
Andy Sonnanstine- Here's another name you've probably read about on the more intelligent fantasy blogs/sites. A similar skill set to James Shields, and an excellent answer to the question "who do you think will be this year's James Shields?" His ERA was dragged down (or pulled up?) last year by a .329 BABIP (due to the poor Rays defense) and a horrific 61% strand rate, also probably hurt by the joke of what the Rays called a "bullpen" last year. It will be tough for him to get his ERA below 4 since he allowed more flyballs than grounders last year, but a low 4 ERA and a solid WHIP are good bets with the improved Rays defense and bullpen I mentioned above when discussing Shields. I have him as the 51st most valuable SP and own him in all 3 leagues I've drafted so far.
Phew, that wraps it up for my MDC ADP analysis series. Yes, that means I've left out an article on Closers. I figure it just isn't really necessary as most closers are being drafted in the general range they should be. My personal strategy with closers is to buy the "unproven" guys with high skills who usually go in rounds 10-15. Guys like Capps, Soria, Soriano, maybe Manny Corpas as well. I also feel Huston Street, Gagne, and Lidge are being undervalued. Thanks for reading this series, and I hope I have been able to influence your choices during your draft.
An often-cited criticism of the military establishment is that it is too frequently guilty of planning for the last war, rather than the next one. Regardless of how you might feel about that observation, those of us in ‘Keeper’ and ‘Dynasty’ leagues, especially those with an allocation of minor league roster spots, are compelled to stay aware of what is happening throughout the minors in order to not only win now, but in the future.
Our Bounce Back Pitchers list is comprised of players who were one-time fantasy studs and have fallen off the top of the list due to recent injuries or off-year. Expect a return to form from these ten hurlers, who should be mid to late round picks in most drafts.
1. Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona While no longer worthy of an early round pick, Johnson showed how effective he can still be based on his small sampling last year. In just 56 innings, he had 72 Ks, 4 wins and a 3.81 ERA. Now recovered after another back surgery, The Big Unit can still rack up the Ks and if he stays healthy, is capable of winning 15 games for the Diamondbacks.
2. Ian Snell, SP, Pittsburgh Snell’s win total dropped from 14 in 2006 to 9 last season, however his ERA was almost a full run lower at 3.76. Except for a mid-season slump, Snell was the victim of poor run support in 2007. With that being said, he still plays for the Pirates, so he won’t be on his way to a 20 win season, but do expect more wins and about 170-190 Ks.
3. Ben Sheets, SP, Milwaukee Injuries have plagued Sheets for the past several seasons, limiting him to only 141 innings in 2007. However, with his arm healthy, he's capable of posting 17-20 wins. In just 24 starts last season, he was 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA.
OK, if you haven't heard the hype behind Jose Reyes over the past couple of years you shouldn't be playing fantasy baseball. He's one of the hottest players in the draft and comes at a premiere price. Chone Figgins has been the stable 3B/OF/2B for the Angels for the past 4 seasons. Both are lead off batters for their perspective teams, and both are speed demons on the base paths. Going into 2008, Jose Reyes has a current ADP (average draft position) on Mock Draft Central of 4.14 and around 3 on Yahoo!, while Chone Figgins currently has an ADP on Mock Draft Central of 54.96 and Yahoo! he comes in at 46. Let's examine each player based on 1 and 3-year projections, their 2008 projections, and other advantages and disadvantages to determine who is the better draft value.
Last year Jose Reyes had a down year in his young career. While playing in 160 games and getting a mind-blowing 681 at bats, he put together a .280 Avg with 119 runs, 12 home runs, and 78 stolen bases. Those numbers aren't the type you expect for the overall 3rd or 4th pick in the draft, especially for the 5x5 rotisserie leagues. I firmly believe Reyes is getting much of his value is from his 2006 season where he batted .300, 122 runs, 19 home runs, and 64 Steals. That season was outstanding for the second year shortshop, but it should be noted that what he gained in home runs he gave up double in steals hurting his value in a 5x5 rotisserie leagues. On a three year average Reyes' numbers are a little more down to Earth averaging 67 stolen bases, 113 runs, 12 home runs, 65.3 RBI, and a .284 average. Now the plus side for this 25 year old star is he is the master of stolen bases, and has tons of potential to tap as he heads towards his prime in 2-4 years.
Now on the other side of this debate is Chone Figgins, a six year veteran who has hit his stride and is certainly in his prime. He is speedy and hits well for average. Last season he had HIS career year in a injury shorten season with a .330 avg, 81 runs, 3 home runs, and 41 stolen bases in only 442 at bats. There are allot on non-believers out there who don't think highly of Chone Figgins. These experts, that I'd rather not embarrass in my blog don't even think he's worth a #60th pick! What's worse is when I drafted him #60th overall in an expert mock draft on Mock Draft Central , I was ripped for it on the LIVE radio broadcast, something I obviously took a little personal. His three year average actually gives him some serious thought as to what he can do healthy. He averaged a .296 avg with 95 runs, 7, home runs, 59 RBI, and 52 stolen bases between 2005 through 2007.
You also have to consider the fact that he did that playing only 115 games in 2007 after playing 155 and 158 the 2 years before. Players had injuries, and Chone Figgins normally is a healthy player and not injury prone. That should not factor in your draft decision. Now lets compare the two 3-year averages side-by-side:
(avg, runs, hr, rbi, sb)
Jose Reyes .284 113 13 65 67
Chone Figgins .296 95 7 59 52
I can easily see that looking at the averages Reyes in three full seasons outperforms Chone Figgins in 4 of the 5 5x5 rotisserie categories, but that is not the debate. I'm hear to prove that getting Chone Figgins 50 picks later is far better value than using your early first round pick on Jose Reyes. Consider what Figgins' numbers would be if he played the full 2007 season and look at his projections for 2008. Also, consider some of the more overlooked minor advantages Figgins has over Reyes.
First off, let's put down our 2008 projections for both players
Jose Reyes .292 110 12 67 67(sb)
Chone Figgins .309 103 8 55 54(sb)
Now looking at our projections for a healthy 2008, I'd say Chone Figgins is a far superior value at the 54th pick than Reyes is at 3rd or 4th pick. Add in that Figgins plays in the American League, and that means better offenses, more runners, more chances to score and knock in runs. One reason I feel Reyes' number of stolen base number will slip a bit is the improved Met's pitching. A factor overlooked by many experts. When you are winning late, you tend to steal less, and the Mets won't need to steal as much this season with the addition of Johan Santana and several of their pitchers like Perez and Maine getting better in 2008. Also, consider the Mets improved bullpen. Another consideration is that while the Mets awesome offense hasn't changed much for 2008, the Angels improved their offense by adding Tori Hunter, and getting some key players into the starting lineup like Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar. That means the Angels are poised to run and score allot more this year. We all know both teams like to run aggressively, but with the Angels weaker offense they will be in much tighter games requiring them to steal more bases later in the game
Finally, position analysis is key between these two players. in most leagues like Yahoo! and CBS Chone Figgins qualifies for 3 positions, 3B, 2B, and OF. That is a huge advantage that can't be overlooked. Playing three important positions against Reyes who only qualifies at shortstop speaks volumes and in invaluable.
So when you go to draft in the remaining spring training think about this, would you rather have Miguel Cabrera or Matt Holiday, then get Figgins in the 5th? Or have Jose Reyes and another 5th round pick? Wait, what about them both?
Either way, when your 4th or 5th round pick comes along and you need a third or second basemen, you need to be considering Chone Figgins.
You couldn't make a safer pick taking the poor man's Jose Reyes, and you will certainly be getting more value from that 5th pick then you would with your 1st pick.
So many fantasy baseball websites repeat the same advice. Repeat the same advice. Repeat the same advice.
Sure, many experts go out on limbs, ... but often they end up sitting together on the same branches. Sleepers are sleepers to so many different websites that they are no longer sleepers anymore. They're wide-awakers. Everyone knows about them. Same with busts. The same busts are busts on so many sites that they lose their bustiness. They sag and droop. They become cleavage. And not even good cleavage. In fact, if you've seen one fantasy bust list, you've probably seen them all. Don't stare at the busts too long though. You'll go blind. And end up looking like a boob.
I encourage you to see for yourself. Compare the mock drafts on websites like Mock Draft Central or Fantasy Baseball Mafia. You're seeing most of the same players drafted in the same rounds. In many ways, there is a herd mentality in fantasy baseball. No one ever wants to rock the boat.
In the grand scheme of things, fantasy baseball is still a relatively young discipline. Sure, it boasts its own writers' association and a cavalcade of advice-based websites, but it has not been dissected with the rigor, precision and high-level analytics that one might find in academia. I am waiting for the day when a graduate student writes his thesis on the virtues of WHIP and OPS or the PhD. economist who applies game theory to auction drafts. Although it is nice to see the "applied economics" blog like Freakonomics discuss the precocious maturity and preparation of a young Alex Rodriguez, the closest thing we have to true analysis in fantasy baseball is the armchair advice of people like myself and a growing mountain of raw statistical data.
Fantasy baseball often rewards the intrepid, the trailblazers. In 2008, I encourage you to develop your own theories. Test out a new hypothesis. Experiment wildly in a consequence-free environment. Here, I'll help you get started In the spirit of bucking convention, here are some unique tips for tapping the keg of contrarian fantasy advice:
1) Draft only players on winning teams -- Winning teams often have good players. They win more than bad teams and usually score more runs. Good teams preserve wins for your pitchers and provide more stat-stuffing opportunities (R, RBI, SB) for your offensive players.
2) Punt a category completely --Steals and saves are often an albatross for many fantasy owners. There are a limited amount of players who produce consistently in these categories, yet many owners spend most of their managerial energy tracking down average and below average producers. If you don't have a top-tier performer or two in these categories, consider focusing your attention on other statistics. If you're a good fantasy owner, you'll figure out how to make up points in the standings incrementally in other categories.
3) Go Moneyball on them -- Fire your scouting staff. Get rid of your spreadsheets and glossy fantasy baseball magazines. Obsess about a certain metric, like BABIP, K/9 or OPS. Test out a statistical hypothesis for a few weeks. See where it takes your team in the standings
4) Drink an energy drink before your league's last five rounds -- I love yard sales. There's a unique pleasure that I derive from riffling through other peoples' junk looking for a hidden gem, a diamond in the rough. I really like showing up at yard sales late, ... right as the homeowners are packing things up and getting ready to call the Salvation Army to pick up the old couches, computer monitors and stacks of baby clothes. That's when I go in for the kill and start making deals. The homeowner is trying to wrap things up, and you can usually anything you want for a pittance, ... if not for free.
Stay alert at the end of your league's draft. Do your research on rookies, prospects and comeback contenders. Most of your league mates will be ready to switch on to auto-pilot during your draft's final rounds. Check your league's draft results from last season and you'll see what steals were available in the final rounds.
Bottom line: Take some chances this season. Experiment with a new approach. Try something new. What's the worst that could happen? Sure, you may finish dead last in your league and be the object of ridicule for your attempt at innovation. I'm sure people laughed at the Wright Brothers before they got their first plane off the ground. Or Al Gore before he invented the Internet and saved our precious planet with his convenient truths.
I give you the immortal words of "Frank the Tank" in 2003's Old School.
"And uh, I happen to look over at a certain point during the meal and see a waitress taking an order, and I found myself wondering what color her underpants might be. Her panties. Uh, odds are they are probably basic white, cotton, underpants. But I sort of think well maybe they're silk panties, maybe it's a thong. Maybe it's something really cool that I don't even know about. You know, and uh, and I started feeling... what? what I thought we were in the trust tree in the nest, were we not? "
Maybe you'll find something really cool new idea that the rest of us don't know about. Maybe you already have. Perhaps you have some diabolical, off-the-beaten strategies of your own that have worked for you in the past. We'd love to hear about them. Post any of your "unconventional" wisdom to The True GURU's Fantasy Baseball blog ... we'll gladly steal them and claim them as our own.
All Breakout Team The guys who have the best chance of far surpassing last year’s numbers
C-Jarrod Saltalamacchia, TEX-The Rangers knew what they were getting when they brought in Saltalamacchia as the key part of the Mark Teixeira trade.After some internal discussion on where he would play, it has been settled that “Salty” will spend at least this season behind the plate.You can expect that starting this year that he will start to show his enormous potential, and not the modest 33 RBI in nearly 100 games that he played last year.
1B-Billy Butler, KC-It is the power numbers that we expect to see from Butler this year.In his only 57 games he played at AAA last year, he blasted 13 HRs, and two years prior he tortured single A pitching with 25 homers in just 92 games.Obviously, the quality of pitching improves dramatically once you reach the show, but expect Butler to start to flex those muscles this year and approach 25+ home runs and a .300+ average.
2B-Howie Kendrick, LAA-Kendrick has a had run of bad luck with injuries in his first two professional seasons, and if he can avoid that this season he should start to show what he is really capable of.The guy was a career .359 hitter in his minor league career, and has been hyped as a batting champion of the future.Look for him to push his average around the .330 mark and start to show some pop in his bat to the tune of around 20 HRs.And although he isn’t the fastest guy around, Kendrick is a smart base runner, who could steal 10-15 bases.It’s Howie’s breakout season!
3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD -"Kooz" got off to a horrendous start to the 2007 season, and a lesser player would've let it get him down. Kouzmanoff was hitting just .113 by the end of April, and all the hype that surrounded him after he was traded to San Diego before the season was gone. But he had a successful second half of the year, as he hit .317 with 11 HRs and 37 RBI. Expect Kooz to ride the momentum from a good second half into this year and blossom into a 25 HR threat.
SS-Stephen Drew, ARI-It is safe to say that the younger Drew’s first two seasons in the pros have been nothing short of disappointing.His batting average is well over 100 points less than his career average was in the minors, and his power numbers are basically in half.But Drew has too much potential, and too sweet a swing not to turn this around.Expectations may have to be tempered a bit, but projections of .290, 25 HRs, and 85 RBI are not out of the question.
OF-Matt Kemp, LAD-Kemp was a hitter all minor league pitchers feared from 2004-2007.For two years now he has just been waiting for his chance to get some regular playing time.Even with the signing of Andruw Jones, it seems like 2008 is going to be his year.Kemp showed some pretty good power, a decent eye at the plate, and even a little bit of speed.Given 162 games in RF this season, expect Kemp to go for .310/25/95/10.
OF-Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS-Coco Crisp’s bags are packed and he’s ready to go, and a decent spring by Ellsbury should punch his ticket to either the bench or to another team via trade.Ellsbury doesn’t have a ton of pop, should max out at 10-15 HRs, but it is his non-stop hustle and speed that will make him an exceptional player this season.Look for him to hit .295, 12 HRs, 58 RBI, and 50+ steals.
OF-Jeremy Hermida, FLA-When he hit a grand slam in his first major league at-bat, the fantasy world was put on notice about Hermida.He was 20/20 on two different levels of the minors and barely spent any time at AAA.Health seems to be the biggest concern for Hermida, and in the second half of the season in ’07 he hit .340 with 10 HRs and 36 RBI.Doing slightly better than doubling those numbers seems within reach.Temper the thoughts on the average down to a still impressive .310 with 26 HRs and 90 RBI.Throw in 15 steals just for shiggles.
SP-Clay Buchholz, BOS-With Curt Schilling’s mysterious shoulder injury, Buchholz goes to the back of the impressive Sox rotation.When someone throws a no hitter in their second start and has as impressive stats as Clay does in the minors (19-10, 356 Ks in 285 IP) and gets a chance in the rotation for a championship level team, you draft him a little early.Clay could easily win 15 games and strike out nearly 200 batters.
SP-Adam Wainwright, STL-Once the top prospect in the Braves farm system, Wainwright was the main piece of the trade that sent JD Drew to Hotlanta.Famous for the 12-6 curve that buckled Carlos Beltran in the ’06 NLCS, Wainwright enters his second year as a starter with an opportunity to be special.His second half of 2007 was his best stretch as a pro, and although he will be hurt by the fact that the Cardinals have gone south for the summer, you can see Wainwright winning 16 games with a 3.30 ERA and 170 Ks.
SP-Matt Garza, TB-Garza may struggle in the win category as he isn’t on the strongest team in the league, but he should have a good ERA and whiff a lot of guys. Sent to Tampa in the offseason for Delmon Young, Garza will start the season as the number three starter for the Rays.He’s got all the potential to be the ace of any staff, and it would not be surprising to see Matt win 12 games with a 3.35 ERA and 160 Ks.
RP-Manny Corpas, COL-Although he isn’t the traditional fireballing closer, Corpas proved to be incredibly effective in his half a season as the Rockies closer.Manny was 19 out of 20 in save chances for the Rockies, and is poised to be the closer in Colorado in 2008.If the Rockies are able to duplicate last year’s miracle run to the World Series, it is more than possible for Corpas to close 40 games with 70 Ks.
As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, draft questions, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
I thought very strongly that Miguel Tejada will continue his decline in 2008. So imagine my surprise when I listened to two expert podcasters and friends of this site both set forth very optimistic projections of Miguel Tejada. The two guys in question are Tony Cincotta at Fantasy Baseball Mafia and Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports and other sites.
Essentially, both cited what I would call "soft" evidence....
This is our top ten list of players who either underachieved or were setback by injuries and are the best bets to have a bounce back year. Most of these players could slip to the middle or late rounds of most drafts or can be bought at good value in auction leagues.
We'll get you started with... Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh Bay's production dropped in almost every category last season as he battled through an injury and was limited to 538 ABs. It wasn't long ago when he was a complete fantasy performer, producing 30+ homers, 100 + RBI and .300 average, with 20 steals to go along with it. He's projected to bat cleanup for the Pirates, so don't expect him to run much, but a healthy season should bring him back to being a top statistical performer again.
Looking at five key players for the Marlins, and yes, most of them are the putative centerfielders.
Let's start with the CF situation. I could discuss five players just in terms of contenders for the CF job. As of the latest depth charts at MLB.com, here are the contenders, in order as they are listed:
Cameron Maybin There is no way he hits and there is no way he is ready. The Marlins are making such a sad, tremendous error if they ask him to play everyday in the majors. He simply had an abysmal contact rate of 57% and will bat less than .200 if stretched to play every day. There are probably 20 more well qualified guys they could get for free.
Alejandro de Aza Unlike Maybin, the Marlins shouldn't really care whether they burn him out and ruin him by making him an every day player. He is not the cornerstone of the franchise and is a fifth OF type who will always be on the margins. Again, there are probably 20 guys better than him available for free. Why burn a good prospect like Maybin when you can burn a bad one like de Aza.
Cody Ross Here is the guy who should get the job and if he doesn't start with it out of Spring Training he will probably end up with it. My reasoning is simple: he is the only one with any shot at all of being a decent hitter. He actually looks like a decent sleeper to me, with a strong BB rate of 10% and a fair contact rate of 78%. He could be a "Bull Durham" rookie who comes from nowhere to turn a profit, so keep him on your radars.
Turning away from the CF morass:
Jeremy Hermida Fantasy players have been touting him for years. Sadly, I auctioned him two years ago at $17 (!) in a high stakes league. Ugh. That 20-20 potential is long gone, but the 20 HR potential is still there. Health is an issue but is he stays healthy he could be an All-Star this year quite easily. His second half performance of .338/.398/.559 was a bit much, but he did have a .298 xBA so a .300 average is not out of the question.
Mike Jacobs Another guy I wasted my hard earned money on (and now I sound like Dom Irrera), I hope he finally busts out this year, since I snagged him in my high stakes league this year at $10. In the second half last year he had a 47% FB rate, and if he keeps that up 25 HR should be a given, as he has solid, above average power. One can hope.
That CF situation is so dire, but it is very similar to the Twins' situation with Carlos Gomez. In both cases I hope the teams look to the long term rather than 2008 as both players could use at least one and probably two years in the minors, Sadly, I think the allure will be too great and the competition too non-existent that in both cases I can see these careers being wasted. It is no small consideration that they were both traded for superstars and the pressure on the GMs for these players to succeed will be too crushing a weight for them. I hope I am wrong.
This is our top ten list of players who either underachieved or were set back by injuries and are the best bets to have a bounce back year. Most of these players could slip to the middle or late rounds of most drafts or can be bought at good value in auction leagues.
1. Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh Bay’s production dropped in almost every category last season as he battled through injury and was limited to 538 ABs. It wasn’t long ago when he was a complete fantasy performer, producing 30+ homers, 100 + RBI and .300 average, with 20 steals to go along with it. He’s projected to bat cleanup for the Pirates, so don’t expect him to run much, but a healthy season should bring him back to being a top statistical performer again.
2. Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto Wells sharp decline hurt many fantasy owners who drafted him early and as their first outfielder last season. It was revealed that he was playing with a bad shoulder which was operated on in the off-season. He bats in the middle of a potent lineup and should return to form, similar to his 2006 numbers.
3. Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas Once touted as a future star, Blalock has regressed after a strong start to his career. Still only 27, and now entering his prime as a hitter, he’s slated to bat clean-up for the Rangers. He’s capable of posting 30+ HRs, 110 RBIs (as he did in 2004) and with third base being a deep position, finding him available in the late rounds is very likely.
A look at over/undervalued players at each position.
After a short break from analyzing MDC's Top 250 ADP report, I'm back in action. Fortunately for us, Sport Fanatics has updated their list as of March 10th, which is what I'll be looking at today. Starting pitcher is easily the position with the most disagreement, and I expect my list of over/undervalued players will include some you have a differing opinion on. But as we all know, I'm right, and you're wrong, so pay close attention. I'm kidding of course, but I'll be focusing on the underlying skills that 90% of fantasy owners don't, instead seeing a name and a 2007 ERA and drafting based on those. This first part will take a look at the overvalued group.
Overvalued
John Lackey(52nd overall, 7th amongst SP)- 3 straight years of xERAs in the high 3's and a K rate that has fallen each of the last 3 years. Last year's 3.01 ERA (benefiting from a high 77% strand rate) and 19 wins is boosting his ADP, but his xERA was actually 3.75. His 7.2 K/9 is above average, but nowhere near elite and not high enough to warrant a top 10 SP ranking. The Spring Training elbow problems certainly don't help either. I had him ranked 18th among SPs for my last draft.
Justin Verlander(65, 10)- The final straw of his overrating came when I saw a poster on a message board I frequent rank him as the 4th best SP. The hype has officially gotten out of control! His walk rate is only average and he's a neutral GB/FB pitcher. His only above average attribute is his K/9, which was 8.2 last year. I get it, people are obsessed with his stuff and 257 MPH fastball. But we all know that whatever stuff he has will show up in the stats! Assuming a similar GB/FB ratio, he'd have to lower his BB/9 to around 2.5 and increase his K/9 for the 2nd straight season to 8.5 just to be worth the 10th best SP. That's asking a lot and certainly no one should be paying for that. Oh yeah, I had him ranked 21st among SPs for my last draft.
Carlos Zambrano(69, 11)- This one is too easy. A terrible BB/9, a declining K/9 that has dropped to merely above average, ERAs benefiting from BABIPs between .260 and .280 that could regress any year, and a zillion innings for a pitcher who's only 26. Even his once stellar GB% has declined for 4 straight years! His name must be the only thing right now causing people to draft him so early, because the skill set certainly doesn't explain it. Umm, I had him ranked 34th among SPs for my last draft. Yup, 34th.
Chris Young(85, 17)- .252 BABIP last year and .237 the year before. Does he possess the rare ability to control his hits allowed? Well in 2005 (while in Texas), his BABIP was a near league average .304, so I'm not so sure. I doubt PETCO could have THAT much of an effect. His HR/F was also a ridiculously low 4% last year. Think it's PETCO again? Well in 2006 in PETCO, his HR/F was 10%, so seems like last year was simply the result of great luck. He has a poor BB/9, increasing the last 2 years (but an improving K/9, which has probably peaked) and gives up a ton of flyballs. His xERAs have been over 4 the last 3 years. He also hasn't pitched more than 179 innings in his major league career. Add this all up, and you got a pitcher I have ranked 26th.
Fausto Carmona(106, 21)- No surprise here after the season he had. He has a solid skill set, inducing a ton of ground balls and possessing decent control. But the K/9 is simply too low and limits his upside. Last year's 3.06 ERA benefited from a .281 BABIP and a high 77% strand rate. He also pitched over 100 innings more than '06, increasing burnout risk. I had him ranked 31st.
Curtis Granderson It pains me to say that I think Granderson will be a heart breaker this year. It is easy to look at him and see a top 30/30 guy who will be a stud, but I demur on him for this year. He is close to useless against lefties, with a horrid .494 OPS (that's OPS not OBP) and he cannot sustain a high batting average with a sub 80% CT rate and a BB/K rate under 0.40. He had a 36% hit rate last year which, though high, is not hugely out of whack. I think a 33-34% rate is much more reasonable, but that 2-3% will also drop his BA a bit. He is a 20-20 guy right now, and it wouldn't surprise me if we have already seen his peak.
As I mentioned in a previous post, I attended Ron Shandler's annual First Pitch Forum last Saturday in NJ. I've been going for the last couple of years and love being surrounded by my fellow fantasy nerds, talking seriously for 3 hours about such an important global topic, fantasy baseball. It never fails to make me laugh when you step aside and really think about what's going on there!
Anyway, I've always found Rick Wilton's thoughts on injuries, injury risk players, and those returning from injuries to be by far the most valuable information at these Forums. It's not that the rest is bad, it's just that already owning the Baseball Forecaster and already using the same metrics that the speakers use, I find myself just nodding in agreement with most of what is said, rather than really learning anything new. With that said, let's go through some of the more interesting tidbits. I've gone with a note format for this article so I could quickly hit on many points.
-There is a large pool of mid-level (2nd & 3rd tier), high-skill starting pitchers this year. This includes players like Lincecum, Gallardo, Burnett, McGowan, Snell, Cain, Myers, etc. What this means is you could put an entire staff together full of these types for a modest price, while reaping the benefits of enormous upside. Of course, you could also end up in a league where everyone considers these players sleepers (a strong possibility), driving up the price of each and cutting into your profit potential.
-There is some burnout risk with CC Sabathia, as he posted his first 200 IP season, reaching 241, plus his postseason innings where he struggled. Could be a precursor to a disappointing 2008.
-Don't forget about Casey Kotchman. All he needs to do is hit more flyballs, and a 15-20 HR season is there for the taking, along with a .300 avg.
-Jonathan Sanchez is a nice sleeper in the Giants rotation. With Lowry's injury, has a shot to secure a spot. Needs to improve his BB rate, but has a nice K rate and of course the great park to hold in all his fly balls.
I know every blogger loves to write about their own drafts and I also know that you probably don't really care to read about our teams and a rundown of every single pick. So what am I going to do? Bore you with another post about my draft with a rundown of every single pick! Because it's fun and this was my first real draft of the year, so you're going to love every word of this post. And besides, I don't think I've ever actually done this before, so I'm truly excited.
First, a quick note on the league settings: it's a 5x5 H2H league where you get 1 win for each category you win for the week; daily transactions, 30 inning minimum per week; positions are weird- C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, Infielder, 4 OF, Util, 8 P, 6 Bench
I have only played in a H2H league once in my life about 7 years ago, and that was a points league. I vowed never to join one again since there is way too much luck involved. However, I was convinced into joining this league because it's with my brother (his 1st fantasy baseball league!!) and it was only $50, so I said what the heck. Plus, I figured the competition would be bad. Ok, enough babbling, onto my strategy...
The Strategy
As I just mentioned, I've never done a 5x5 H2H league so I really wasn't sure about strategy compared with a traditional roto league. I did come up with one that I think (hope) will work. I planned to use 4 of my 6 bench slots on pitchers, drafting a total of 12. In addition, I wanted to draft 8 starters and 4 closers. With daily transactions, I would always keep my 4 closers active, rotating my 8 starters in when they pitch. I assume I won't have any days where 5 pitchers start, but if I did, I'd just have to bench a closer. This strategy would almost guarantee I win Saves, Ks and Wins each week. And given that I consider myself good at drafting pitching without having to draft them early, I was confident I could also win ERA and WHIP most weeks, even if my staff pitched the most innings.
As always, I expected to load up on hitting early (like everyone always plans to do), while waiting until the end of the first 10 rounds to draft pitching and execute the pitching side of my strategy.
Last, I create my own projections and calculate dollar values for every player using the valuation method by Todd Zola from the old Mastersball.com website. I used a 62/38 split to account for the 11/8 hitting/pitching roster split, compared to the standard 14/9 hitters/pitchers where I normally go with a 70/30 split. I added Yahoo's ADP to my spreadsheet (since the draft was on Yahoo) and planned to draft the players that I valued higher than the ADP 1 round earlier to ensure I got the player.
The guys who will exceed your expectations and turn late round picks into fantasy gems.
C—J.R. Towles, HOU—Towles logged some pretty impressive numbers for a catcher during his short stay in the minor leagues, including a .317 average with 12 jacks, 55 ribbies, and 13 steals in just 81 games in 2006.Towles needs to surpass 125-year veteran Brad Ausmus on the depth chart, which shouldn’t be too difficult, as Ausmus hasn’t topped a .260 batting average or six homers in seven years.If he is given the chance to get a full-time job behind the plate in Houston, this rookie could log some Russell Martin-like numbers.
1B—Ryan Garko, CLE—Although Cleveland seems to want to experiment with their first baseman (Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner), it is obvious that their best option is Garko.Given the lion’s share of the starts at first in ’07, Garko did more than hold his own.He hit a respectable .289 with 21 HRs and 61 RBI in 138 games.He is at that magical fantasy age of 27, and in that potent Indians lineup, the stars are aligned for Garko to take that next step up in product to the 25-30 HR, 80-95 RBI level.
2B—Jayson Nix, COL—There is a big audition going on at second base in Colorado between Nix, Ian Stewart, Clint Barmes, and Marcus Giles.Based on his defense (and the endorsement of SS Troy Tulowitzki), it appears that as of now Nix has the leg up on his competition.However, if you look at his minor league numbers, offensively Nix is no slouch.In 124 games at AAA Colorado Springs last season, Nix hit .292 with 11 HRs, 58 RBI, and 24 steals.If he wins the job, and can come close to duplicating those numbers over a full season, you could have a steal in the last couple rounds.
3B—Dallas McPherson, FLA—Fantasy owners were drooling over the prospect of McPherson’s power after the season he had in 2004.Splitting the year between AA and AAA, Dallas hit .318 with 40 HRs and 126 RBIs.Injuries and horrific plate discipline sidetracked his trip to the Hall of Fame, and after a herniated disc cost him the 2007 season the Angels released one of their former brightest stars.McPherson has surfaced in Florida, where there is no shortage of positions with no one to play them.If he is able to win the starting gig, McPherson gets a second chance to get his career on track and start to live up to the enormous potential he showed just a few short years ago.
SS—Yunel Escobar, ATL—Escobar was a nice surprise to fantasy owners last season, although he didn’t really excel in any category.Manager Bobby Cox is talking about hitting Escobar in the leadoff position this year, which would greatly increase his value.Wherever he hits in the lineup, it appears that Escobar has the starting shortstop job locked down, and if you miss out on the top few shortstops, you could do much worse than Escobar.As a leadoff man, it is reasonable to expect Escobar to hit .310 with 15 HRs and 35 steals.
OF—Lastings Milledge, WAS—Milledge really got the short end of the stick in New York.He was a flashy young man with a big bat, and apparently too big of a mouth.He was crucified right away for high fiving fans down the right field line going back out to the field after his first career home run, he wrote a controversial rap song, and was never really given a fair chance after that.Once thought to bring a king’s ransom back in a trade, Milledge was traded to Washington for utility man Ryan Church.I believe the change in scenery coupled with the desire to show the Mets they gave up on him far too soon will lead Milledge to have the type of season the Mets thought he would when he was once an untouchable prospect.Athletes with a grudge and something to prove always seem to perform well.Look for a .285 average with 23 HRs, 80 RBI, and 20 steals.
OF—Shane Victorino, PHI—Had to find a place for the flyin’ Hawaiian somewhere in all of these rankings.Victorino has slowly turned himself from a decent player on the bench to a solid fantasy player and the starting centerfielder for Philadelphia.Not only did he double his home run total from ’06 to ’07, but his steals went from four to 37!His minor league numbers suggest that he would top out at 20 HRs or so, but you can figure his steal numbers will at worst stay where they were.With an aggressive team like the Phillies, it is possible to see his thefts approach 45 given a full season.
OF—Michael Bourn, HOU—One of the main pieces in the Brad Lidge trade, Bourn will take over as the Astros’ full time centerfielder and leadoff hitter.Bourn has speed most men dream about, and he definitely has the potential to top 50 steals.If Miguel Tejada can stay out of trouble and Berkman continues his solid statistics, Bourn could definitely score near 100 runs as well.Consider him the top steals sleeper in the majors.
SP—Adam Loewen, BAL—Loewen was one of the darlings of pitching sleepers last season before an elbow injury cost him his season.He really needs to continue to work on his control, as he still walks too many batters.But as he progressed through the O’s minor league system, he seemed to get better.Although being on the lowly Orioles will cost him some in the win column (not to mention having to pitch multiple times against the Sox and Yanks), Loewen could be a pitcher that surprises and solidifies himself as a fantasy pitcher worth a roster spot.
SP—Ervin Santana, LAA—After compiling a 28-16 record in his first two seasons, Santana took a giant step backwards in ’07, a step that cost him his position on the Angels major league roster.He won only seven of his 26 starts and his ERA ballooned to 5.76.It appeared that Santana would start 2008 in the minors, but with the injury to Kelvim Escobar, Santana gets another chance.Manager Mike Scioscia seems to have renewed confidence in Santana after his 1.91 ERA in winter ball this year.Given a full season of starts, it seems quite likely that Santana can re-establish himself as a useful fantasy starter based on the team he plays for and his past performance.
SP—Franklin Morales, COL—Morales has been a big strikeout pitcher throughout the Rockies minor league system, and he enters camp with a real chance at the number five spot in the rotation.If the Rockies can repeat their offensive onslaught that they put on in 2007, any pitcher in their rotation has a chance to win a decent amount of games.Morales gained some valuable experience at the end of last season as well as in the playoffs, and should be ready to claim his spot every five days in Colorado.Given that scenario, Morales is capable of winning twelve games, a 3.65 ERA, and 150 K’s.
RP—George Sherrill, BAL—An important piece of the trade that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle, Sherrill has already been endorsed by manager Dave Trembley as the Orioles closer to start the season.Sherrill was incredibly effective as a setup man in Baltimore last year, posting a 2.36 ERA and striking out 56 batters in just 45 IP.Although the Orioles don’t figure to win a whole lot of games in 2008, it seems that they have found a man who will be able to preserve the lead at the end of games for them.Expect no less than 25 saves and 70 K’s.
Who is your big sleeper in 2008? Leave us your feedback! Visit at fightingchancefantasy.wordpress.com.
As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, draft questions, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
