The guys who will exceed your expectations and turn late round picks into fantasy gems.
C—J.R. Towles, HOU—Towles logged some pretty impressive numbers for a catcher
during his short stay in the minor leagues, including a .317 average with 12 jacks, 55 ribbies, and 13 steals in just 81 games in 2006. Towles needs to surpass 125-year veteran Brad Ausmus on the depth chart, which shouldn’t be too difficult, as Ausmus hasn’t topped a .260 batting average or six homers in seven years. If he is given the chance to get a full-time job behind the plate in Houston, this rookie could log some Russell Martin-like numbers.
1B—Ryan Garko, CLE—Although Cleveland seems to want to experiment with their first baseman (Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner), it is obvious that their best option is Garko. Given the lion’s share of the starts at first in ’07, Garko did more than hold his own. He hit a respectable .289 with 21 HRs and 61 RBI in 138 games. He is at that magical fantasy age of 27, and in that potent Indians lineup, the stars are aligned for Garko to take that next step up in product to the 25-30 HR, 80-95 RBI level.
2B—Jayson Nix, COL—There is a big audition going on at second base in Colorado between Nix, Ian Stewart, Clint Barmes, and Marcus Giles. Based on his defense (and the endorsement of SS Troy Tulowitzki), it appears that as of now Nix has the leg up on his competition. However, if you look at his minor league numbers, offensively Nix is no slouch. In 124 games at AAA Colorado Springs last season, Nix hit .292 with 11 HRs, 58 RBI, and 24 steals. If he wins the job, and can come close to duplicating those numbers over a full season, you could have a steal in the last couple rounds.
3B—Dallas McPherson, FLA—Fantasy owners were drooling over the prospect of McPherson’s power after the season he had in 2004. Splitting the year between AA and AAA, Dallas hit .318 with 40 HRs and 126 RBIs. Injuries and horrific plate discipline sidetracked his trip to the Hall of Fame, and after a herniated disc cost him the 2007 season the Angels released one of their former brightest stars. McPherson has surfaced in Florida, where there is no shortage of positions with no one to play them. If he is able to win the starting gig, McPherson gets a second chance to get his career on track and start to live up to the enormous potential he showed just a few short years ago.
SS—Yunel Escobar, ATL—Escobar was a nice surprise to fantasy owners last season, although he didn’t really excel in any category. Manager Bobby Cox is talking about hitting Escobar in the leadoff position this year, which would greatly increase his value. Wherever he hits in the lineup, it appears that Escobar has the starting shortstop job locked down, and if you miss out on the top few shortstops, you could do much worse than Escobar. As a leadoff man, it is reasonable to expect Escobar to hit .310 with 15 HRs and 35 steals.
OF—Lastings Milledge, WAS—Milledge really got the short end of the stick in New
York. He was a flashy young man with a big bat, and apparently too big of a mouth. He was crucified right away for high fiving fans down the right field line going back out to the field after his first career home run, he wrote a controversial rap song, and was never really given a fair chance after that. Once thought to bring a king’s ransom back in a trade, Milledge was traded to Washington for utility man Ryan Church. I believe the change in scenery coupled with the desire to show the Mets they gave up on him far too soon will lead Milledge to have the type of season the Mets thought he would when he was once an untouchable prospect. Athletes with a grudge and something to prove always seem to perform well. Look for a .285 average with 23 HRs, 80 RBI, and 20 steals.
OF—Shane Victorino, PHI—Had to find a place for the flyin’ Hawaiian somewhere in all of these rankings. Victorino has slowly turned himself from a decent player on the bench to a solid fantasy player and the starting centerfielder for Philadelphia. Not only did he double his home run total from ’06 to ’07, but his steals went from four to 37! His minor league numbers suggest that he would top out at 20 HRs or so, but you can figure his steal numbers will at worst stay where they were. With an aggressive team like the Phillies, it is possible to see his thefts approach 45 given a full season.
OF—Michael Bourn, HOU—One of the main pieces in the Brad Lidge trade, Bourn will take over as the Astros’ full time centerfielder and leadoff hitter. Bourn has speed most men dream about, and he definitely has the potential to top 50 steals. If Miguel Tejada can stay out of trouble and Berkman continues his solid statistics, Bourn could definitely score near 100 runs as well. Consider him the top steals sleeper in the majors.
SP—Adam Loewen, BAL—Loewen was one of the darlings of pitching sleepers last season before an elbow injury cost him his season. He really needs to continue to work on his control, as he still walks too many batters. But as he progressed through the O’s minor league system, he seemed to get better. Although being on the lowly Orioles will cost him some in the win column (not to mention having to pitch multiple times against the Sox and Yanks), Loewen could be a pitcher that surprises and solidifies himself as a fantasy pitcher worth a roster spot.
SP—Ervin Santana, LAA—After compiling a 28-16 record in his first two seasons, Santana took a giant step backwards in ’07, a step that cost him his position on the Angels major league roster. He won only seven of his 26 starts and his ERA ballooned to 5.76. It appeared that Santana would start 2008 in the minors, but with the injury to Kelvim Escobar, Santana gets another chance. Manager Mike Scioscia seems to have renewed confidence in Santana after his 1.91 ERA in winter ball this year. Given a full season of starts, it seems quite likely that Santana can re-establish himself as a useful fantasy starter based on the team he plays for and his past performance.
SP—Franklin Morales, COL—Morales has been a big strikeout pitcher throughout the Rockies minor league system, and he enters camp with a real chance at the number five 
spot in the rotation. If the Rockies can repeat their offensive onslaught that they put on in 2007, any pitcher in their rotation has a chance to win a decent amount of games. Morales gained some valuable experience at the end of last season as well as in the playoffs, and should be ready to claim his spot every five days in Colorado. Given that scenario, Morales is capable of winning twelve games, a 3.65 ERA, and 150 K’s.
RP—George Sherrill, BAL—An important piece of the trade that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle, Sherrill has already been endorsed by manager Dave Trembley as the Orioles closer to start the season. Sherrill was incredibly effective as a setup man in Baltimore last year, posting a 2.36 ERA and striking out 56 batters in just 45 IP. Although the Orioles don’t figure to win a whole lot of games in 2008, it seems that they have found a man who will be able to preserve the lead at the end of games for them. Expect no less than 25 saves and 70 K’s.
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Labels: fantasy, mlb, sleepers
