The non-waiver trade deadline has come and past, let's take a look at the deals over the past couple of days and see how they will effect the players involved and others on each team.
Padres trade Jake Peavy to the White Sox for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell
In attempt number two the White Sox get their man. Peavy will still be out for at least another month, but what will his value be next year? He goes to a smaller home ball park, and goes to the tougher American League, but Peavy should be among the top 20 pitchers in baseball.
Richard definitely will go into the Padres rotation, and Poreda probably isn't far behind. Richard had been pitching better lately, but is still somewhat of a wild card. He has a 4.85 ERA this season, but has been great his last two times out. Aaron Poreda was the second best prospect for the White Sox coming into the season, and was great at AA, but didn't fare so well after he was promoted. The White Sox had been using him out of the bullpen, but he sill start for San Diego. For those of you in keeper leagues, Poreda is the guy to monitor out of this deal. Carter is a hard throwing prospect in the lower levels of the Sox minor league system.
Indians trade Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies for Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Jason Knapp
Cliff Lee should get a slight bump in fantasy value with this trade with a move to the lighter hitting National League and the fact that he goes to a team that actually will give him run support. His strikeouts might go up a little, and his ERA down a little, but the big bump will come with the wins. Lee's record is under .500 at the moment, but that should change over the last two months. Ben Francisco will now likely see very little playing time anymore and what little fantasy value he had is now gone.
Jason Knapp is in Single-A and is not a fantasy factor in 2009. Donald is a long shot to find his way to Cleveland this season. With the Indians also trading Victor Martinez there is an outside chance that Marson might see a cup of coffee at the end of the year or if Kelly Shoppach were to go down, but he isn't someone to target. Carrasco was once one of the Phillies untouchables but has struggled the past two seasons in the minors. He could slide into the Cleveland rotation, but he is 6-9 with an ERA over 5.00 at AAA this season, but he does have just over a strikeout an inning. In the right situation he might be worth taking a chance on, but I wouldn't expect much.
Indians trade Victor Martinez to the Red Sox for Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price
Hagadone is a fairly high ranking prospect for the Sox, but he was a long way from the big leagues for them. He has just nine starts at AA, so he is likely in the minors for the year, but could be worth remembering for next year. Price is a decent prospect, but is also a ways away from the majors, so don't worry about him. Masterson has been both a starter and a reliever for the Red Sox, but I would expect him to slide right into the Indians rotation unless they send him to the minors to stretch him out since he has been in the bullpen for so long. He made six starts for the Sox and was 2-2. He allowed six runs in his two losses, but no more than two runs in the other four starts. Masterson could definitely be worth adding if you need pitching. Unfortunately, he likely won't get too many wins.
Victor Martinez will do some catching, play some first base, and likely also do some DHing. He gains some value because he goes to a team with a great lineup and he should get ample chances to drive in more runs. Kelly Shoppach is the main beneficiary of this trade. With Martinez gone, Shoppach should get enough starts behind the plate to make him fantasy worth again. He hit over 20 homers in only 352 at bats in 2008. If your catcher is really doing bad, I would probably give Shoppach a try.
Mariners trade Jarrod Washburn to the Tigers for Luke French and Mauricio Robles
French had been pitching fairly well for the Tigers and likely goes right into the Mariners' rotation. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, and now loses the run support that he could have gotten in Detroit. I wouldn't drop him though, because Seattle is still doing pretty good even though they don't have a high powered offense. If French can continue to pitch like he has been, he still should carry some value. Robles throws hard, but he is in Single-A and has no value in fantasy for this season.
Any of you who have read my articles all year long know that I am not a fan of Washburn. So, while I still don't think he will keep pitching well, his value does take an uptick going from Seattle to Detroit. The Tigers have some good bats, and could offer Washburn some run support to help him win a few more games.
Orioles trade George Sherrill to the Dodgers for Josh Bell and Stephen Johnson
I was on WTMM ESPN Radio in Albany, NY on Wednesday and predicted that Sherrill would not be traded. Not even 24 hours later he was on his way to Los Angeles. And of course, the host of the show Brian Sinkoff called me out on it the next day. I'm a big boy, I can take it. Sherrill's fantasy value goes in the toilet unless you are in a league that rewards holds.
Bell will be the third baseman of the future for the O's, but he is just in AA right now and won't have value in 2009. Johnson appears to have somewhat of a future but he is still also at least a year away from the majors. With the load of starting pitching that Baltimore has, he could be a long way off. The man who benefits the most from this trade should be Jim Johnson who should take over as closer for Baltimore. As far as how successful he will be, that is still up for discussion. Danys Baez could also be in the mix, but I think Johnson gets first dibs.
Finally, a note to Sinkoff. Hey buddy, I thought Huff and Baez were going to be traded too! We'll have to talk about that next time I am on! And for all of you out there go to wtmm.com to hear the Sound Off With Sinkoff program every weekday from 3-7 pm EST, especially on Wednesday at 5pm when they have the weekly Fantasy Freakout segment.
Blue Jays trade Scott Rolen to the Reds for Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart
Do the Reds think they are in this race? They are 9.5 games out of first place and they trade their 3B and two prospects for Scott Rolen? I know Rolen has enjoyed a resurgence this season, but he is getting up there in age and has had a history of injury problems. Rolen might get a slight bump in value going back to the National League, and to a smaller ballpark in Cincinnati.
I guess the Reds had lost faith in Edwin to deal him away for Rolen, but he is only a couple years removed from a pretty good offensive season. He had been battling some injuries this year, but I am surprised by this move. He may lose a bit of value going to a much bigger ballpart, but he will be the everyday third sacker for the Jays. Roenicke is a pretty good relief prospect who has seen some time in the majors. Stewart appears to be a high rising prospect who has been in three levels of the Reds minor league system already this year.
Red Sox trade Adam LaRoche to the Braves for Casey Kotchman
This one has me scratching my head to a certain extent. I understand the Braves getting an upgrade at first base, as LaRoche is a better hitter than Kotchman, but what the Sox are going to do with Kotchman I'm not sure. Since LaRoche would have been relegated to the bench in Boston, he gets a big boost, but his value is still similar to what it was when the season started.
Athletics trade Orlando Cabrera to the Twins for Tyler Ladendorf
This trade doesn't have a lot of flair as far as fantasy baseball is concerned. Cabrera might steal a few more bases as he goes to a team that likes to run more than they do in Oakland, but I don't see the trade having a big impact on his average or his power. Ladendorf is a former second round pick who is still in the low levels of the minors.
Dodgers trade Claudio Vargas to the Brewers for Vinny Rottino
YAWN! Even if Vargas does start for the Brewers, you don't want him on your team. Rottino is a decent bench player at best, but is no one that has any fantasy value.
Nationals trade Nick Johnson to the Marlins for Aaron Thompson
This won't effect Johnson too much, but likely will keep both Gaby Sanchez and Emilio Bonifacio out of the Florida lineup. Jorge Cantu will push over to third base. Thompson is an ok pitcher that likely won't even crack the Nats' rotation. If he does, he still has no fantasy value.
Jonathan Broxton got revenge on St. Louis after blowing a big save last night. The Dodgers scored two runs in the top of the tenth inning and the big boy came in to close it out and close it out he did. He needed 14 pitches and sent the Cardinals down 1-2-3 after a lead-off walk. Broxton wasn't looking for strikeouts. He wanted quick outs and to go home. In the end he got Albert Pujols to ground out to Broxton himself to end the game. Ryan Franklin pitched a quiet ninth inning and left in the tenth. Overall, 1.1 perfect innings and no strikeouts.
Huston Street continues to leave the national league hitters dazed and confused with his 26th save of the season. In defeating the Mets in game two of a doubleheader, Street struck out two and gave up a hit in another fantastic performance. It's his seventh save of the month and 18th straight save going back to June 2.
Jonathan Papelbon looked good a day removed from one of the worst blown saves of his career. He still wasn't the spot on 96 MPH Papelbon we are use to, but he kept the A's hitters off balance only giving up one hit. He threw 17 pitches, 10 of which were strikes. When Paps is on, he throws a much higher percentage of strikes. It was his 26th save of the season. At this point Papelbon would be lucky to get to 40 saves.
Rafael Soriano finally got a save! Though his last save was on July 22, after getting spoiled early this month, seven days is a long wait. Soriano got his eight save of the month by striking out the side and giving up one hit. It is the seventh time this season Soriano has struck out the side this season. Quite an impressive stat, take that Sabermetric guys. It was Soriano's 15th save of the season.
Other Appearances: Matt Thornton - Got the win against the Yankees. He's not the closer in Chicago, but it is worth noting on this slow day. We haven't seen Jenks in awhile, but he has to be on a short lease with Guillen ad with the way Thornton is pitching.
Johan Santana threw shutout baseball for the third time in his last four starts, as he looks to have the kind of second half that he is famous for in fantasy circles. For his career after the All-Star Break, Santana is now 60-18 with an ERA around 2.71. If you have even considered trading him because the Mets are riddled with injury, don't do it. In fact, I would try to see if his current owner might be a bit down on him because of the situation in New York.
Jorge De La Rosa continues to roll as he won the nightcap of the double dip with the Mets and has now won seven straight decisions. He gave up two runs over 6.1 innings and struck out five. During this streak he has only given up more than three runs once, and he has struck out at least five batters in every appearance. De La Rosa has never shown this kind of consistency at any point in his career to this point, so I'm not sure how long it will last, but definitely enjoy the ride while he stays hot.
Johnathon Niese took the loss against Colorado, but he wasn't too bad. Niese allowed four runs over 6.1 innings. He had some control issues, walking four guys, but given it was his second start since being recalled, and against a fairly good offensive team it isn't too bad. Unless you are in a bind I wouldn't be using Niese until the Mets get healthy (if they get healthy), but if you are in a head to head matchup and perhaps you need a win or a few strikeouts, Niese might be worth a shot in a situation like that.
Luke Hochevar proved today that while he is making progress he still has a long way to go. After throwing two straight gems, Hochevar got rocked allowing seven runs over six innings against the Orioles. He is worth owning on your team, but you have to understand that there will be games like this and he will still get tattooed from time to time. The problem with dropping him after this is that he will likely do good again very soon, and if you keep dropping him every time he does bad and adding him every time he does well, you will never get the good starts.
Johnny Cueto lost his fourth straight decision, and has fantasy owners thinking about letting him go. I urge you to fight that because there is likely no one better in free agency. Cueto is still doing better than he was last year when he was a fantasy darling. He is striking out a few less guys, but his ERA is a run lower than it was in 2008, and I truly believe that he will break out of this funk.
Kevin Hart pitched well for the fourth consecutive start for the Cubs and then his reward was being traded to the Pirates. He hadn't been pitching deep into games, and he hasn't been striking out too many guys and with his move to Pittsburgh he loses what little fantasy value he had left. I would stay away from Hart at this point.
Rick VandenHurk pitched well for the third consecutive start, but given his history you should not be making a move on him. He has been up and down to all levels of the minors with some stints in the majors over the past few years, and he has never shown much of anything before. He was not a high ranking prospect at any time, and his career ERA in the majors is 6.50. I know he has been doing somewhat well, but it won't last.
Derek Holland pitched the game of his life, and nearly threw a complete game but fell just one out short. He has had a good start here and there but mostly he has been pretty awful and has been moved in and out of the rotation a few times. Holland does have a world of potential and was ranked as the second best prospect in the Rangers' organization coming into the season, so this didn't come entirely out of left field, but you really shouldn't expect this to continue.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Leo Nunez has been lightening hot lately and recorded his eight save of the season against the Atlanta Braves tonight. He gave up one hit and walked one in the 6-3 win. Nunez has been pitching like we all expected him too. He is throwing hard and throwing strikes. 11 of his 12 pitches landed for strikes and when that happens, you will have success. It was his fourth save in ten days, and fifth overall for the month. Joe Nathan is quickly catching up with Brian Fuentes for the league lead in saves. He notched his 29th save of the season tongiht with a 3-2 win. It wasn't easy, he put two runners on with one out, but ended up striking out Chris Getz and got Mark Kotsay to lineout. Nathan wasn't his sharpest today, but he got the job done and buckled down when he needed too. Nathan is regaining is hold as the top closer in the league.
To my dismay, Jonathan Broxton continues his slump with another blown save (3rd of the season). He blew a great performance by Clayton Kershaw, who left the game for Broxton with a 1-0 lead. It wasn't as bad as it looks. He got the first two outs, which was against Pujols and Holliday. He then gave up a soft single to Ludwick, but the big mistake was the wild pitch that allowed Ludwick to get to second base and eventually score on Rasmus's single. I'll keep a watch on Broxton, but just chalk this up as a bad luck outing. Ryan Franklin didn't look any better in 11th. He entered the game and promptly gave up two singles and after a sharp lineout by Russell Martin, gave up the sac fly to Matt Kemp. Joe Torre then made a huge managerial boo-boo. He allowed Ramon Troncoso to hit, so he could stay in the game. He struck out and the next inning gave up the tying run.
David Aardsma got his 25th save of the season and helped to beat Roy Halladay in the same day. It wasn't his best night as he needed 20 pitches to get the save and walked one with two strikeouts.
Other Appearances: Trevor Hoffman (23) - Very good outing for Hoffman. He struck out two and gave up one hit. It was only his sixth appearance with two or more strikeouts. Andrew Bailey (13) - Got his second save in a row against the Red Sox and for the second day in a row gave up a run on three hits. Jim Johnson (2) - Came in for the eighth and after the Orioles added two more runs, he stayed in for the save. Brian Wilson - Got the win in an extra inning game. Looked great with two strikeouts Matt Capps - Dropped his sixth game of the season. He entered a 0-0 game in the tenth inning and quickly gave up a run on two hits and a walk. Just terrible. Mariano Rivera - only pitched .2 innings in a non-save situation, but struck out both batters and gave up one hit.
Joba Chamberlain had perhaps the best outing of his young career, as he shutout the Rays over eight innings and struck out five. This is now the third straight time to the mound that Joba has pitched into the seventh inning as he looks to turn the corner to a reliable starter. As happy as his fantasy owners have to be about this outing, there is still talk here in New York that he is supposed to be on an inning limit of 150. Will he be shut down? Will he go to the 'pen? Will the Yankees take the kid gloves off and just let the guy pitch? Only time will tell, but if I had to guess right now I would think he is a few weeks away from going back to the bullpen, crushing his value.The Cleveland Indians traded their ace Cliff Lee to the Philadelphia Phillies for four prospects. What should you expect from Lee in the National League? Well, for one that sub-.500 record should be a thing of the past. Lee was not getting nearly the run support that he deserved, and it showed in his 7-9 record. But Lee's ERA is just 3.14 and he has 107 strikeouts on the year. He won't have a C.C. Sabathia-type impact in the National League, but he should get more wins and the rest of his numbers should also improve in the lighter hitting National League.
The Indians got prospects pitcher Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson, young pitcher Jason Knapp, and shortstop Jason Donald. For fantasy purposes in 2009 the only guy you likely have to worry about is Carrasco. He was once a pretty high ranking prospect for the Phillies, but he has struggled over the past couple seasons. His ERA at AAA was over 5.00 this season, so while he might get a look in the rotation, he is not someone I would go get. Donald could play shortstop for them someday, but not likely this season. Knapp is still in single-A, but is a hard throwing guy. IF the Indians do trade Victor Martinez in the next couple of days Marson could see some time in the big leagues, but Kelly Shoppach would see most of the starts there. So, for the Indians side this trade doesn't have much fantasy impact in 2009.
The Pirates made a couple of deals, first trading Jack Wilson and Ian Snell for a bunch of prospects including Jeff Clement from Seattle. Clement was once a top ten pick in the draft, and if Pittsburgh decides to call him up he could have some fantasy impact. He bascially has nothing more to prove in the minor leagues, but his talent has yet to translate to the majors. If the Pirates decide to take a long look at Clement, he is likely to be catcher eligible, and should be worth a look if you have any need for a backstop. He likely will struggle again, but is worth taking a flier on.
The better move for the future of the Pirates was when they acquired young pitching prospect Tim Alderson from the San Francisco Giants for Freddy Sanchez. Now, I understand that Sanchez is a better actual baseball player than in fantasy, but Alderson was one of the top 50 prospects in the whole game according to Baseball America even though he was just in AA. There is very little chance that Alderson will see the majors this season, but he is 6-1 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts. Keep him on your radar for young pitchers to watch in 2010.
Aramis Ramirez is hitting like crazy, despite reports that HE said he didn't think he would hit for much power for the rest of the season because of his shoulder injury. Well, I guess Aramis even shortchanged himself. He homered for the fourth time in his last six games on Wednesday and now has nine dingers in 36 games. I guess despite his own questions about his abilities, that Ramirez will be his usual power hitting self. If he has nine homers right now, look for him to challenge 20 for the season despite missing a huge chunk of the year.
Howie Kendrick had three hits including his sixth home run and drove in five runs. Even with this outburst, he is still hitting in the .260s and he just isn't bringing much to the table as far as fantasy is concerned in 2009. Is this the start of something good for Kendrick? Anything is possible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Howie was pegged as a batting champion waiting to happen, but so far he hasn't shown much. He likely will never hit for much power or steal many bases, so I foresee Kendrick being a guy who is more valuable in actual baseball rather than in fantasy.
Chris Tillman made his first career major league start for the Orioles, and while it wasn't anything to get excited about at all, you have to keep your expectations under control. Tillman has a ton of talent and very well could go out and throw gems in his next few starts. You can see it now, next time out Tillman will likely last six innings and give up three runs again and strikeout five. It may take a little while, but this kid should be special.
Mat Latos improves a little bit each time out, and on Wednesday he took a pretty good step forward. Latos allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out four against a pretty decent hitting Reds team. He continues his command of the strikeout, as he has only walked four batters in his three starts. I know he has two wins in his first three starts, but being on the Padres will limit his win possibilites. At just 21 years old, it appears this is the start of a long, fabulous career, but with all young pitchers there will likely be a fair share of bumps in the road. So far, Latos looks like he might be the real deal, but I always get worried with pitchers who make the jump from AA to the majors.
Brett Anderson had a tough first inning, but then dug in and gave up nothing further to the Red Sox and earned his sixth win of the season. Anderson also struck out eight in his six innings of work, and continues to look like the guy we thought we would see when the season started. He has only given up more than three runs once since the middle of June and should be a good contributor for the rest of the year. If you are in a keeper league and he is out there, don't hesitate to pick him up. Seasonal leagues, I think he certainly warrants consideration, and if you don't grab him after this outing if he pitches well again five days from now then he would have to be picked up.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Today was a tough day for several closers across the board. Let's start with Jonathan Papelbon. He's been living on the edge for awhile now, and he hasn't been hitting his spots. He also has been depending on his fastball way too much. Tonight he got hammered by the Athletics for three runs on three hits and a walk. It was Papelbon's third blown save of the season. Papelbon has been used allot this year and he has a inning cap set by management, so expect the Red Sox to rest his as much as possible. He needed 21 pitches tonight and my guess is he won't pitch tomorrow, but with the Red Sox needing wins they probably will use him if needed. Andrew Bailey got the back door save closing out the 11-inning affair. He did get touched up for a run on two hits, but got his 12th save of the season.
Joakim Soria looks sharp tonight closing out another extra inning game against the Orioles. He got his third save in four games and his 17th overall for the season. After giving up a lead-off single, Soria got the next three batters including a strikeout. The thing I liked about Soria tonight, he used his fastball effectively. He has been relying on his breaking balls far too much and he went to the fastball and kept the Oriole hitters off balance. George Sherrill pitched another Sherrill inning, which is now defined as an inning with one hit and one strikeout.
With the month coming to a close in a few days, Heath Bell scored just his third save of the month beating the Reds 3-2. He looked great striking out two and facing the minimum of three batters. Bell has been great all year, but the Padres just don't win consistently enough for him to be an effective fantasy closer. If you were able to dump Bell earlier this month like I told you too, good for you.
Tonight, we watched another episode of The Adventures of Brad Lidge, starring none other than BRAD LIDGE. He got his 20th save of the season, but not without the Lidgeworks we expect. Lidge came into a 4-1 game and left 4-3. For you math haters, he gave up two runs on a bomb by Mark Reynolds. Here is an interesting stat for you Brad Lidge lovers and I promise you its not a useless Sabermetric stat. Lidge has given up runs in 19 of 42 appearances. 12 of those are during save opportunities and include his six blown saves. So what does that mean? That is more run surrendering appearances than Mariano Rivera, Brian Fuentes, and Joe Nathan combined. He is trash and shouldn't have a job anymore. Even if he is getting a save now and then, he is destroying your ERA and WHIP.
Rafael Soriano blew his second save of the season by giving up a walk-off two run jack to Ross Gload. It was a terrible pitch right down the heart of the plate and one he'd like to get back. He only recorded one out in the effort. The Marlins brought Nunez in to pitch the top of the ninth inning and got the win.
Yet another closer had a rough night, but this one was a loss and not a blown save. Scott Downs gave up a game winning bloop single to Ichiro Suzuki and loss to the Mariners 4-3. I've never been a fan of Scott Downs this season, and he's had a rough month to say the least. He's only pitched 6.2 innings and he's given up 7 runs, two blown saves, and a two losses. On the bright side, he has one save this month.
Other Appearances: Joe Nathan (28) - Needed only one out and seven pitches for the save. if you are keeping count at home that is two saves on four batters and 13 pitches.
Brain Wilson (26) - Another excellent save for Wilson. Perfect inning and two strikeouts.
Brian Fuentes - Got rocked again, this time two runs and did not record an out. He was relieved by Jason Bulger who recorded his first save of the season.
David Aardsma - Got the win pitching in a tied game. Aardsma is now 3-3 on the season.
Trevor Hoffman - Pitched .2 innings and walked two. Got lifted for Mark DiFelice, who got the final out in the loss. DiFelice has great numbers this season, but Hoffman was just getting work, so don't look to much into this move.
Billy Butler hit his 11th homer of the year on Tuesday, one day after a five hit effort and now has four RBI in the last two games. He still isn't hitting for the power that I assumed he would when he came to the majors, but he is hitting near .300 and soon these doubles (31 through today) have got to start leaving the yard. Butler should continue to be a very solid hitter for the rest of the season, and hopefully the recent increase in power (three dingers in the last eight games) will keep going and he will get to 17 or 18 homers.
Matt Wieters looks like he is showing little signs of life, as he had a four hit game on Tuesday. The bad news is they were all singles, but seeing the way that he is disappointing those of you who spent early draft picks on him and waited all year for him to come to the majors. He has now hit safely in seven straight games and has driven in a run in three straight. I think it is safe to assume he won't be the difference maker we thought he might be when he came to the big leagues this season, but if he can hit .280 with a little power, his owners would likely sign up for that at this point.
Scott Kazmir is another guy that you absolutely have no idea what to expect when he takes the mound. Kazmir either gives up five to seven runs per game or else he throws a game like he did on Tuesday. He gave up just one run over seven innings and struck out four. It was the first time all season that he got through seven innings and Kazmir has been all over the map this season. He is still too talented to let go of, but you might not want to start him every time out. Of course with that strategy you likely would have benched him against New York. I guess what I am saying is good luck trying to figure out what you are going to get from Kazmir.
Clay Buchholz had his win blown by the bullpen, but he had a nice bounceback after a rough outing against the A's. Of course most pitchers will fare better against Oakland than they will against Texas, but it is good to see Clay pitching pretty well and keeping the strikeouts up. Buchholz allowed two runs over 5.2 innings and struck out five. It is still very likely that he is only in the majors until Tim Wakefield is ready to return from a back injury, but enjoy the production from Clay while it lasts.
Kevin Kouzmanoff not only has a five game hit streak, but also has a five game RBI streak. He will always have some value in deeper leagues because of his power potential, but his horrible batting average will always keep him from being a guy who is owned in most 12 team leagues except for a time like now that he is hot. Someday I still think that Kouzmanoff will be a consistent threat who will hit .265 with 25-30 home runs. 2009 will obviously not be it, but it could be a couple more years before he truly realizes his potential.
Mike Pelfrey is all over the map. Sometimes he is great, sometimes he is horrible, most of the time he is average. Pelfrey won his eighth game of the season as he shut out the Rockies over 6.1 innings and struck out five. He has some value as an end of the rotation guy in 12 team leagues, but his ERA near 5.00 and his WHIP of 1.50 makes it likely that he could be a free agent in your league. He is better as a guy you pick up against some of the weaker hitting teams in the National League. His performance tonight against the Rockies has to be classified as a surprise.
Gordon Beckham has been hitting and looking more comfortable by the day for the White Sox. Beckham drove in two runs, giving him at least one RBI in four straight games, and he now has seven hits in the last five games. In keeper leagues, Beckham is a must have as he should have an incredibly bright future in the majors and he could be a 20/20 guy as soon as 2010.
Jhonny Peralta homered for the third straight day, and even though it might have taken a long time, you should consider this him finally breaking out of his slump. Peralta now has nine dingers with 52 RBI and he has gotten his average up to .271. If you have any need for help at middle infield and he is still available, don't hesitate to get him on your team.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Today was one of those days were you just say "huh"? Let's start with Mr. Automatic, Brian Fuentes. He was rocked by home runs from Victor Martinez and JhonnyPeralta and received his first blown save since May 30. He ended up giving up four runs on four hits and got the loss along with the blown save. These are the kind of imploding we expect from Fuentes, but he has still been very consistent and his owners just have to shake it off. He ERA did jump up to 3.79 and falling well below 3.00.
Kerry Wood worked around the blown save for a back door save. For all you dirty birds, I using a play on words for the back door curveball. Can you say trademark? Wood nailed his 14th save going through a stunned Angel team that never thought they would have to bat in the bottom of the ninth. The DH had to run out of the shower!
Joe Nathan rebounded nicely after his second blown save of the season. He scored his 27th save on six pitches and one strikeout. A great performance from Nathan with little effort required.
C.J. Wilson got another save today, taking the place of an ailing Frank Francisco. He struck out the side and closed out the 5-2 win. Wilson has been outstanding as the Rangers closers this year. He is 11 out of 12 in save chances as the closers and has his ERA at a remarkable 2.80. He also has 43 strikeouts in 45 innings, which is better then his career K/9 rate of 7.75. Take that for what it is worth.
Francisco Cordero finally got some work in a save situation and the rust showed. He almost had a quick and easy save, but gave up a bomb to Kevin Kouzmanoff on a poorly located fastball. Cordero still has a low ERA, but has only recorded five saves this month and the opportunities are far and few between. His last save was July 19.
Other Appearances: Ryan Franklin (23) - Came in with the bases loaded in the eight and recorded a easy save winning 6-1. Overall he pitched 1.1 innings giving up one hit and striking out one. JoakimSoria (16) - Needed 18 pitches and wasn't sharp, but got the perfect save. David Robertson (1) - Pitched one out in the eighth and then the Yankees put on four runs and got to pitch the ninth. It was probably best for Rivera owners that he got the rest. Jose Valverde - Pitched 1.1 innings in a tie game. He got three strikeouts and looked outstanding as usual. Brad Lidge - Didn't get a save chance, but didn't get hammered either in one inning of work. Beers for everyone!
Jeff Francoeur hit his third home run as a Met, and he continues to be the offensive force the Mets have so badly needed all year long. He has 13 RBI since coming over from Atlanta and MIGHT be worth a spot on your roster. I would feel much more comfortable if he was either a fourth outfielder or some bench insurance, but in larger leagues he could be in your lineup. I really don't see this continuing, but he should be an integral parts of the Mets offense while their stars are hurt. In fact, he could be even better when the Mets' hitters are healthy, as he would be surrounded by better hitters.
When Julio Lugo was traded to the Cardinals, I wasn't sure that he would get enough playing time to warrant fantasy consideration. Since coming over, Lugo has nine hits in four games and has started each day. If you are in dire need of middle infield help, I would give him a chance. He had some pretty decent steal numbers in Boston when he was healthy.
Ryan Garko has been traded to the San Francisco Giants for a low level minor leaguer. He had finally started to get hot and the Indians were playing him in the outfield to get his bat into the lineup, but now he should have no problem playing everyday. The Giants have tried lots of guys at first, but Garko should see the lion's share of starts there. NL-only leagues or teams in need of some pop could possibly try Garko.
Kelly Shoppach could be the number one beneficiary of this trade. With Garko out of the mix, that could have the Tribe moving Victor Martinez to first base more often, which would get Shoppach in the game more. He hit 21 home runs in limited at bats last year when Martinez was injured, so he could be a nice addition down the stretch. He only hit .261 over that time, so you have to be patient with his batting average. Shoppach started tonight, keep an eye out to see how much he plays in the next couple days.
Alex Gordon has started to hit a little bit. Gordon had two hits on Monday and now has hit safely in five straight games, and he has driven in two runs over that span. I wouldn't run out and grab him right now, but the guy was an elite prospect, so if he starts to hit some more, he could be worth adding. Definitely monitor Gordon in the near future.
Michael Saunders was called up a couple of days ago by the Seattle Mariners and has been installed as the everyday left fielder. He was ranked as the second best prospect in the Mariners organization by Baseball America coming into the season, and in 64 games at AAA he was hitting .310 with 13 HRs and 32 RBI. He will also bring you a decent amount of speed and could steal 15-20 bases in a full season. In his first two games for Seattle he is 2/8 with an RBI. He seems to be flying under the radar so far, but keep an eye on him over the next couple of days to see if he can help you.
Jonny Gomes hit two home runs on Monday, and now has five in the last seven days. So, is he someone you can expect to continue to do this? In a short answer, no. Gomes has shown power in small bursts throughout his career, but he has never been a consistent enough hitter to either stay in a lineup or even in the major leagues. This is short lived, don't buy into it.
Homer Bailey pitched fairly well, but I urge you to temper your excitement. Just remember that it was against the Padres. Second, his last two starts were nightmares, so he hasn't been anything near consistent. Unless you are in an NL-only, or a 16 team league, I would just leave Bailey in free agency, it is likely where he belongs.
Nyjer Morgan reached the 30 steal plateau this season. He has been a great surprise, as his batting average is above .300 as well. He doesn't drive in many runs, but he is at least a two category guy, and if he is helping you in steals he isn't someone I would sell high on, I think he will get close to 45 for the year.
I will be joining Steve Gardner at usatoday.com for the third installment of the Fantasy Roundtable on Tuesday 7/29 at 12pm EST. This one will focus on the trade dealine, but any topic in fantasy can be discussed. It will be featuring a more user friendly chat format, and should be smoother than our previous attempts. You can join us here, and I look forward to seeing many of you at the chat.
Max Scherzer won his first game in just over a month, but it isn't like he has been pitching horribly. Scherzer only gave up four earned runs in one start since May 31st. Unfortunately, he pitches for the Diamondbacks and that will lmit his wins. Don't be mistaken though, Scherzer has a ton of talent and is one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball. He just turned 25, and I think 2010 will be his huge breakout. For the rest of this season you can expect him to pitch to an ERA around 3.50 and strikeout a ton of guys. He won his sixth game of the year tonight, he likely won't get far past ten wins.
Brett Cecil continues to pitch well, and it is time for you to find out if he is available in your league. Cecil was one of the better pitching prospects for Toronto, and was doing well before he was injured earlier in the season. In his last five starts, including tonight, Cecil had allowed one run or less in four of them. I think at this point he deserves to be on someone's roster in a 12 team league, and he just turned 23 in the beginning of July.
It is looking very likely that Chris Tillman will be called up to start on Wednesday. Tillman can have an immediate impact, so if you need pitching, I would make the move now. I spoke about this last week, so jump back to that article if you want to know more about Tillman.
Joe Blanton has been pitching great over the past couple of months, but I don'[t think that it can continue at this rate. Blanton ran his record to 7-4 after allowing just two runs over eight innings and struck out six. He has always been an average pitcher, but Blanton hasn't given up more than three earned runs in six straight starts and only once since Memorial Day. His career ERA is near 4.25, so I just can't see this run keeping up. Blanton is also striking out more than usual (103 in 117 innings), so don't be surprised if he starts to tail off some.
Mark DeRosa has finally woken up for the Cardinals and for those of you who have been waiting for him all season long. He started 0-13 with St. Louis with a two week Disabled List stint in there. In the last week, DeRosa has four two hit games, four home runs, and six RBI. He likely won't stay THIS hot, but he should be a very productive player for your team for the rest of the year.
Kyle Blanks is starting to show some power, but he isn't being consistent enough to warrant fantasy attention yet. Blanks does have three home runs in the last six games, but only two other hits in those games. Keep an eye on Blanks, but is just not worthy of a roster spot at this time.
David Hernandez continues to be a giant killer for the Orioles as he collected a win against the Red Sox. In his starts against the Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, and Tigers, Hernandez is 3-0 and pitched great in the one game where he didn't get the win. He isn't a big strikeout pitcher by any means, but he looks like a reasonable pickup if you really need the pitching.
Rich Harden now has three straight very good starts, and if you own him you should start to feel confidence again. Harden allowed just one run and one hit over six innings and struck out eight. This isn't any mind-blowing analysis, but be sure he is in your lineup every time he takes the mound.
Aaron Cook is again having a strong season as far as wins are concerned, but his secondary numbers make his value lowered. Cook won his tenth game of the year, but his ERA is close to 4.00, his WHIP is 1.41, and he strikes out a very low number (69 in 128 innings). He has some fantasy value because of his solid win total, but I am just not a fan of his. I would rather have a young guy with some upside.
Ervin Santana was absolutely awful again, and if you have lost patience with him, I can't say I blame you. Santana couldn't get out of the fourth inning, and allowed six runs while striking out four. He has now given up four earned runs or more in six of his last seven starts. I know he was great last season, but this is getting tough to swallow. His ERA is now over 7.00 and his WHIP is over 1.70. There is a chance he could turn this around and he plays for a team with a good offense, but he is certainly testing your loyalty.
Rick Porcello struggled again, although he settled in after a bad first inning. He has now given up four earned runs or more in four straight starts and he is not going deep into games anymore. Porcello hasn't gotten through the sixth inning since June 12th. Tonight against the White Sox Porcello allowed four runs partly due to some inexperience on his part. But after the first he allowed just one more run over his next 4.1 innings. Seasonal leagues I can feel you wanting to cut this guy, and I can't blame you. I believe I am about to do so in one of mine. Keeper leagues all you can do is ride out the storm with this guy. He is 20 years old and has already shown a good deal of some signs of the future.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
With the trade deadline looming, everybody is trying to speculate which teams are going to buy and which are going to sell as well as what players they wish to part with and so on and so forth. I see fantasy owners guessing already on which players may or may not be traded by making waiver claims or trading for such players. Instead of worrying about which players are going to go from bad teams to good teams, how about focusing on the players who will be taking over on the bad teams? After all, these guys are the ones that are going to see more playing time the rest of the way. Unless you are Matt Holliday or Roy Halladay, chances are the players moving on to the contending teams will have a lesser role than they did before. This makes them less valuable fantasy wise. So don't get caught up in the hype. Keep your eyes on the prize and make moves for the players that will help you close out this championship season and not the ones who are in the headlines this week.
DON'T FIGHT THE POWER
1) Garrett Jones (Outfield) -- Pirates -- This is Jones second week in a row in The Hot 8 and I assure you if he is still available in your league he won't be for long. Jones has 10 HR's in his first 80 AB's this year and is hitting at a nice little clip of .350/.402/.825. He is a big powerful kid who is playing with purpose in what might have been his last ever attempt at a major league career. If you read this blog every week then you are familiar with the Garrett Jones story and if not go back and read about the decision that may have changed his life. Power like this does not grow on trees and I don't know of any fantasy team that has too much power.
ABSOLUTE MUSTS
2) Joel Pineiro (RHP - Starter) -- Cardinals -- Pineiro is a ground ball machine. Dave Duncan has him pitching to his strengths and not trying to be something he is not and this approach is working wonders for the thirty year old right hander. I feel that Pineiro is a must have fantasy starter at this point. If your team is thin in the pitching department especially with starters or if you have been going the ole' pitch and ditch route it is time for you to stick with Pineiro now. This is the kind of guy that can lead you to the championship this year believe me. He is owned in less than half of leagues right now so leave this screen right now and make the move for Pineiro. Just please come right back...3) Seth Smith (Outfield) -- Rockies -- I have been touting Rockies outfielders all season long with my favorite being Dexter Fowler. But Smith was on my preseason watch list and I personally drafted him in both of my fantasy leagues this year. He had not been getting the playing time I thought he would have received earlier in the season but he now appears to be the Rockies everyday left fielder. It is no coincidence that Colorado is now atop the wild card standings in the National League and poised to make a strong playoff push. Smith's numbers are fantastic this year especially for a platoon player who often would be used for one at-bat a game. He has power, gets on base, hits for a solid average, drives in runs and can even steal a few bases. This is a great opportunity for your fantasy team to pickup a player that is sure to start for you down the stretch this season.
IMPACT ROOKIES
4) Michael Saunders (Outfield) -- Mariners -- Saunders is a dynamic player who should have been called up long ago in my humble opinion. He is a big kid who has nice drive with his legs and loft in his swing. This suggests that he will be a legitimate power hitter at the big league level. But that is not the limit to Saunders game, not by a long shot. He has a great understanding of the strike zone and is a disciplined hitter. He uses all fields and shows power even when hitting to left field. Better yet, he is a good athlete who has above average speed and hustles every time out of the box. He is even a good drag bunter and will use it whenever he needs to just to get on base or move a runner over. The Mariners are going to love this kid and he will be their everyday left fielder for the rest of this year. I think he can be a difference maker in fantasy leagues the rest of the way. If you have the space I suggest picking him up if for no other reason than to keep him out of your competitions hands.
5) Chris Tillman (RHP - Starter) -- Orioles -- Tillman's time has finally come. He will be called up to start for the Orioles on Wednesday, making his major league debut opposite Zach Grienke and the Kansas City Royals. While I am not sold on Tillman's ability to dominate in the big leagues the way he has in the minors, he could be a useful piece in your fantasy leagues. The problem I have with Tillman is that I don't see an obvious out-pitch and he doesn't quite have the command of all his pitches the way Vin Mazzaro or Matt Maloney does. The Orioles are building themselves a very good ballclub for the future here and Tillman is definitely a part of that puzzle. If you are in a keeper league he is a must right away. Otherwise, he can be useful as a spot starter now and then when you are lacking or in two start weeks.
6) Matt Latos (RHP - Starter) -- Padres -- Unlike Chris Tillman, Latos has plenty of out-pitches and wow factors. His fastball is ridiculously good with sharp movement and 96 MPH speed coming on a downward plane from his 6'5" frame. His slider features fierce two way movement that can make even the best of hitters look silly. As big as Latos is, his ego and attitude may be even bigger. He is not a hard worker and has rubbed teammates the wrong way with his "better than the room" carelessness. He has already shown he can get major league hitters out after starting out the season in the A Midwest League. He may throw a no-hitter in his career if he doesn't burn out quickly.
ME AND JULIO, DOWN BY THE BALL-FIELD 7) Julio Lugo (Shortstop) -- Cardinals -- In all the hype surrounding the Cardinals acquisition of Matt Holliday, the minor deal they made with the Red Sox for Julio Lugo has kind of got lost in the shuffle. All Lugo has done since coming to St. Louis is go 6-10 with 2 3B, 1 2B and 1 HR. He also stole a base in his first game with the red birds, something he is sure to do more of while playing for Tony LaRussa. I love this pickup by the Cardinals. Lugo was just what they needed in the middle of their infield and while he doesn't possess the defense, he will be great for fantasy owners. Anybody who claims there are no middle infielders out there in free agency, Lugo is only owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues right now!
BACK FROM OBLIVION
8) Sergio Mitre (RHP - Starter) -- Yankees -- Mitre has long been abandoned by both major league general managers and fantasy league players. But now here he is resurrecting his career with the charging New York Yankees and making his way back onto our fantasy radar. Mitre was dominating in AAA this year and seems to have matured quite a bit since his days in Chicago and Florida. The Yankees will give Mitre a chance to win every time out and if he can just do a formidable job, he will turn out to be this years version of Aaron Small.
That is the Hot 8 for this week. What do you guys think? Post your comments below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Sometimes when you write about fantasy sports, it is important to admit when you are wrong. Well, I think it is about that time for me and Aaron Hill. He hit home runs number 23 and 24 today, and it is painfully obvious that he is having a far better season than I could have dreamed about if I wanted to dream about a good season for Aaron Hill. He is also hitting near .290 and has driven in 67 runs. It looks like Hill has a heck of a shot at 35 homers and 95 RBI. I still think there is a decent chance he struggles down the stretch, but I have to give the man credit when it is due.
I almost included in the article last night to count on the fact that Gio Gonzalez was going to get absolutely tattooed today by the Yankees. In his last start he had allowed 11 earned runs, and his ERA is over 9.00. The Yankees are rolling, winners of eight in a row. Makes sense right? And that is why, as they say, you play the game. Gonzalez was great today as he allowed just one run over 6.2 innings and struck out six. More times than not, you can figure that Gonzalez will struggle. He has been starting some and coming out of the bullpen some as well. His strikeouts are good, with 35 in 33 innings, but he is too unreliable to start each time he takes the ball.
Ted Lilly was placed on the 15 day Disabled List due to inflammation in his shoulder. Worse news than that is Lilly will be having arthroscopic knee surgery that will force him to miss four or five starts at the minimum. The Cubs are hoping that he will be able to return sometime in mid-August. This is not good news for fantasy teams, but hopefully Lilly will be back in time for your fantasy playoffs. Stash him on your injury spot if you can.
David Price is another guy that it appears that I won't be right about, but this is in the opposite direction. Considering the way that this guy pitched in the playoffs last season for the Rays, I don't think I was alone in predicting great things for the young phenom this season. He has had some short stints of greatness this year, but he has had more short outings than good outings. You really have no choice to keep Price on your roster. I can't blame you if you decide not to start him in certain matchups, but there is no way that you can cut him. Personally, I didn't draft him in any league I am in, but that was because he went before I took him, not because I didn't want him. But if I did have him, I would keep throwing him out there.
Are the Indians actually going to start to get something out of some of their young pitching prospects? In consecutive nights both Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey have both collected wins. Last night Laffey threw seven shutout innings and struck out seven to improve to 4-2, however most of those wins are from his time as a reliever. In 2007, Laffey was ranked the #5 prospect for the Indians, but he has struggled mightily in the majors and the minors. Even with his impressive outing last night, you can't add Laffey. Tonight, Jeremy Sowers returned from a stint in the minors and also threw seven shutout innings, but struck out only two. While Sowers has also struggled badly in the majors, he was always good in the minors. In six starts this year, he was 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA with 27 Ks in 37 innings. Even though the Indians are sure to be terrible for the rest of the season, Sowers might be worth a look. Unless you are really desperate, let him make another start before you pick him up, but definitely see how he does the next time out. Sowers was once one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball, and in 2006 was ranked as the second best in the Cleveland organization.
Chone Figgins is hitting and running like it's 2005. Figgy his his third home run of the season (second this week), and stole three bases, giving him an impressive 31 on the season. He is also hitting over .310, and this isn't anything that you should be too surprised about. The last couple years he had only played 115 games a season because of injury, but when he has been healthy in his career, Figgins has been an elite basestealer who generally hits around .300. With third base becoming such a shallow position, Figgins value is at its highest point in years.
Bobby Jenks blew his second consecutive save opportunity and has now allowed at least one earned run in five of his last six appearances. I still don't think that Jenks will be replaced based on this outing, but I do think the leash that he is on is getting a little shorter. For those of you who are in the market of grabbing middle relievers in the hopes that they become closers, Matt Thornton got a save the other day when Jenks needed a day of rest.
Rodrigo Lopez continues to pitch pretty well, but you still have to wonder about how secure his rotation spot is. Pedro Martinez continues to get closer to the majors, and the Phillies are still the lead team in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes according to rumors. But Lopez improved to 3-0 after beating the Cardinals, allowing three earned runs over six innings and struck out two. This was actually his worst of his four starts for Philly. I'm not a huge fan of Lopez, but the Phillies are rolling and he is hot. For a short term fix, I think he is valuable. If you think he will fix your staff's problems, you are likely to be disappointed.
After being a colossal disappointment Rick Ankiel has all of a sudden decided he wants to contribute. In the last three days, Ankiel has seven hits which includes two home runs and two doubles. With Matt Holliday now in St. Louis, either Colby Rasmus or Ankiel have to lose at bats. If he can keep it up, you have to figure Ankiel will be in centerfield, as he is also a great centerfielder.
Johnathon Niese got another start in the majors for the Mets tonight, and this time he made the most of his opportunity. In his previous two starts for New York, Niese lasted just two innings and had an ERA near 6.00. But he was so hot down at AAA and the Mets needed him after the injury to Fernando Nieve. Niese allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out three. In the minors he struck out more batters than he showed tonight, so IF he can keep pitching this way and IF the Mets can get healthy, Niese could be fantasy worthy. For those of you who are out of it and looking for a potential keeper, I would grab him on speculation now. If you are competing, I wouldn't grab him unless you are desperate for pitching. Niese is out a while, so unless he really stinks, Niese should be up for a while if not the rest of the season.
Can Luke Hochevar please decide if he is going to be good or if he is going to suck, because he is confusing me. He has actually now won four consecutive decisions, but in two of them he gave up a combined nine runs. Now, in the last two he gave up a combined three runs. On Saturday he allowed two runs over seven innings and struck out 13. Although he is likely to still be inconsistent and struggle to get a ton of wins because he is on the Royals, I think he is worth adding in 12 team leagues. He was a top ten overall pick and has a ton of talent. This could be his time when he finally figures it all out.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Roy Halladay pitched another beautiful nine innings, but left with the score tied 2-2. In came the fabled Toronto bullpen and namely their closer Scott Downs. Downs is a rather cheap fantasy closer who really has no business closing. Part of his success in getting the job is he hasn't made that many save appearances and in the few he did have he managed to get three outs without blowing the lead. Recently, that has not been so for Downs. In his last two appearances, including tonight, Downs is 0-1 with a blown save. He's given up four runs and struck out one, while walking four. Downs is clearly a talented pitched, but he is far better serving as a lefty specialist or a 7th inning pitcher. He will not lose the job right now, but keep a hold on Jason Frasor who also hasn't been pitching well.
Jonathan Papelbon had a rough outing as well tonight, but went into what he calls "punch-out mode" and struck out the last two batters he faced with the tying run on first base. The Orioles opened the ninth inning with 2 singles, putting men on the corners, but Paps retired the next three batters with two of them taking Papelbon to 3-2 counts and in the end he needed 24 pitches to get the save.
Brian Wilson got only his fourth save of the month beating the Rockies 3-1. The former Beach Boys lead singer (Oops! wrong Brain Wilson), walked one and gave up a hit gaining his 25th save of the season. He has had a quiet month, but with the Giants competing for the wild card, I expect Wilson to get many more save opportunities.
Leo Nunez got his seventh save of the season and a badly needed one for his fantasy owners. It was an easy ten pitch save for the Marlins closer, but with the Marlins lack of wins in July, Nunez hasn't had many opportunities. He has four save this month and three in the last four days with the Marlins winning four in a row. I did tell you that the Marlins will start winning and when that happens, Nunez will rack up the saves.
Other Appearances:
C.J. Wilson (10) - Looked sharp closing out the Royals 2-0. He should be a few more chances before Francisco comes back, but don't expect him to pitch tomorrow. If the Rangers are smart they will give him a day of rest.
Fernando Rodney (21) - Rodney looked great wrapping up the White Sox. He struck out two in a perfect and quick inning of work.
Jose Valverde (11) - He continues to look sharp needing only seven pitches for the perfect save.
Kevin Gregg - Gregg got hammered in a non-save situation. He gave up two runs on three hits and walk.
Roy Halladay pitched another beautiful nine innings, but left with the score tied 2-2. In came the fabled Toronto bullpen and namely their closer Scott Downs. Downs is a rather cheap fantasy closer who really has no business closing. Part of his success in getting the job is he hasn't made that many save appearances and in the few he did have he managed to get three outs without blowing the lead. Recently, that has not been so for Downs. In his last two appearances, including tonight, Downs is 0-1 with a blown save. He's given up four runs and struck out one, while walking four. Downs is clearly a talented pitched, but he is far better serving as a lefty specialist or a 7th inning pitcher. He will not lose the job right now, but keep a hold on Jason Frasor who also hasn't been pitching well.
Jonathan Papelbon had a rough outing as well tonight, but went into what he calls "punch-out mode" and struck out the last two batters he faced with the tying run on first base. The Orioles opened the ninth inning with 2 singles, putting men on the corners, but Paps retired the next three batters with two of them taking Papelbon to 3-2 counts and in the end he needed 24 pitches to get the save.
Brian Wilson got only his fourth save of the month beating the Rockies 3-1. The former Beach Boys lead singer (Oops! wrong Brain Wilson), walked one and gave up a hit gaining his 25th save of the season. He has had a quiet month, but with the Giants competing for the wild card, I expect Wilson to get many more save opportunities.
Leo Nunez got his seventh save of the season and a badly needed one for his fantasy owners. It was an easy ten pitch save for the Marlins closer, but with the Marlins lack of wins in July, Nunez hasn't had many opportunities. He has four save this month and three in the last four days with the Marlins winning four in a row. I did tell you that the Marlins will start winning and when that happens, Nunez will rack up the saves.
Other Appearances:
C.J. Wilson (10) - Looked sharp closing out the Royals 2-0. He should be a few more chances before Francisco comes back, but don't expect him to pitch tomorrow. If the Rangers are smart they will give him a day of rest.
Fernando Rodney (21) - Rodney looked great wrapping up the White Sox. He struck out two in a perfect and quick inning of work.
Jose Valverde (11) - He continues to look sharp needing only seven pitches for the perfect save.
Kevin Gregg - Gregg got hammered in a non-save situation. He gave up two runs on three hits and walk.
Matt Holliday was traded today to the St. Louis Cardinals for prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. Holliday now goes back to the National League, back to a team with a chance to win, and he is now hitting right behind Albert Pujols. All of these factors lead me to believe that Holliday will have a great end of the season. Now, you can't expect his numbers back from his days with Colorado, but I definitely think he will be better than he was in Oakland. St. Louis isn't Coors Field, but it is better for hitters than Oakland is. If you have been holding Holliday all year long, today is a day for a small celebration. Holliday had his own celebration by having a four hit night against the Phillies.
Even though he faltered in the eighth inning, Joba Chamberlain pitched well and Phil Coke bailed him out. Joba lasted seven innings and threw just over 100 pitches, allowing just one run and striking out six. This is the second consecutive start that Chamberlain has gotten into the seventh inning, after three straight of not being able to complete six. I hate to be a buzzkill, but I have to report what I hear. On NY sports talk radio today all the chatter was about the return of the Joba Rules and how many innings the Yankees were going to let him throw. It seems the limit is somewhere near 150 innings. Well, with his seven tonight, that brings Joba to 102 for the season. You don't need a math degree to figure out that he won't be starting for the rest of the season. So, is does he go back to the bullpen? Do they just shut him down? It is very unlikely they stop him from pitching. I would think he has seven or eight starts left in him and then he's back to the pen. But if the Yankees are scratching for a playoff spot and he keeps pitching like this, perhaps they will let him continue to start, but from what I heard today that is highly unlikely. With Mariano as the closer and Hughes seemingly entrenched in the eighth inning, I'm not sure what kind of role Chamberlain would have in that Yankee pen.
Carlos Guillen played in a game for the first time for the Tigers since May 4th, and he did pretty good. Guillen was DHing for Detroit in both games of a doubleheader on Friday, and he collected three hits combined in the games, including a home run. He had an injury riddled 2008 season that saw his statistics go in the toilet, but the guy can still hit. Unfortunately, he likely won't get regular playing time right away, so if you do make a move to pick him up, don't be surprised if he gets some regular days off the first few weeks. I wouldn't expect too much from Guillen for the rest of this year, but maybe over the last four to five weeks of the season when he is feeling better he might have a hot streak in him.
Aramis Ramirez had four hits, including his second home run since the All-Star Break, maybe he will be OK. I have been very leery of Aramis since he came back from the Disabled List since I read quotes from him that he didn't expect to hit for much power for the rest of the year due to his shoulder injury. Today he goes out and hits two doubles and a homer. Given his career history I suppose you have to figure that he will be ok and play him every day. I only own him in one league, and of course he was on my bench today. He won't be tomorrow.
Congratulations to Padres' rookie Mat Latos for collecting his first career victory in the major leagues in just his second start. Latos allowed just two runs over 5.2 innings and struck out five. Latos is the Padres best pitching prospect who made the big jump from AA all the way to the majors. He is only 21 years old, so even though he has a ton of talent, my guess is that the rest of 2009 will be full of ups and downs for Latos. In keeper leagues and deeper seasonal leagues he is worth the risk, but if you are in a 12 team league I would think there are safer options out there. At worst he will help you with strikeouts, the rest of the categories are a crap shoot right now.
This may be a little late, but for those of you who don't pay attention to the box scores every night, it appears that J.P. Howell has taken over as the Rays closer. He collected his 11th save of the year tonight, and his fifth this month. The Rays are back to their winning ways, so if he is available and you need saves, I would certainly jump on that bandwagon for as long as it lasts. He allowed just three earned runs in June and July combined, and they all came in one outing. He also has 58 Ks in just 47 innings.
Manny Parra screwed everyone who started him today. After allowing just one run in his first two starts after coming back from the minors, Parra gave up four runs over five innings against the Braves who don't exactly have Murderer's Row for a batting order. While he should be better than he was to start the season, it appears that the inconsistency that has been the trademark of his career will continue.
Am I wrong on Martin Prado? While he seems to be one of the most added players in fantasy over the last month, I am still resisting that temptation. Prado had two hits on Friday, including a three run home run. He initially got fantasy attention because of his multi-position eligibility, but he has hit great in July. He has only gone hitless in two games the entire month of July so far, and he has 11 RBI this month. He never showed much power or much speed in his five years in the minors, so I'm not sure where this production is coming from. I can't say it is a bad idea to pick him up while he is hot, but just make sure you aren't giving up anyone that is too good, and don't be shocked if this nice run drops off.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
There wasn't much action among closers today, but a few worth talking about. David Aardsma got his 24th save of the season and his eighth save of the month. Aardsma has dropped his ERA down to 1.75 and his WHIP to 1.12. he is pitching out of this world and it might be a good time to consider trading the Mariners closer and getting maximum value for him.
Kerry Wood made another rare appearance and even more rare got he save. It was his 13th in a very long season for him and the Cleveland Indians. He pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout. It was his four save of the month, which is a 400% improvement over his June numbers. For you readers not well versed in mathematics, Wood had one save in June.
Brian Fuentes continues to have a remarkable season. When he isn't saving games, he is winning them. Tonight he pitched a perfect inning and only needed ten pitches to get the 6-5 win over the Twins in ten innings.
Joe Nathan got hammered in his first blown save since May 15 and only the second of the season. It broke his string of 23 scoreless innings and and 20 straight saves. He gave up two runs and two hits and a walk. The appearance ballooned his ERA .43 points to 1.64.
Other Appearances: Phil Hughes (1) - Rivera got some much needed rest and Hughes picked up the easy save.
Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game today against the Tampa Bay Rays. As much as I thought he would be a consistent performer, never did I expect this kind of season. Buehrle is now 11-3 and his ERA sits at 3.28. Although his ERA likely won't take an astronomical jump, I am expecting somewhat of a dropoff from Buehrle. He still is a lock to win 15 games, but I would be very surprised to see him get to 18. If it is at all possible, I would try to deal him while his value is at an all time high.
Buehrle's opponent, Scott Kazmir, had another in his line of good start/bad start pattern. He allowed five runs over six innings, walked three and struck out five. Here is what you can expect from Kazmir for the rest of the season. He will win his share of games, and he will look like Sandy Koufax at least a handful of games during the season. However, most of the time he will be very average, and he won't pitch deep into games. He will help you in strikeouts, but he will crush your WHIP. There will be some days, like today, where he isn't very good. He will give up too many runs and he will hurt you for the week. If he has ten starts left (which is likely not accurate I just picked that for round numbers), he will likely be lights out three times, average five times, and bad twice. I would nearly guarantee that he is better than any one in your free agent pool, so I wouldn't consider letting him go.
Barry Zito gave up a run in the second inning on a home run but that was it for the day as he improved to 6-10. He went through a period where he was getting some fantasy attention, but he is not someone that I would hold on my roster, even with this performance. He doesn't strike out enough guys, he doesn't win enough, and he has too many outings where he allows five runs or more. Against some of the weak hitting National League teams he is worth a spot start, but I would pitch him and ditch him against the Nats, Pads, etc.
Jarrod Washburn hates me. No matter how many times I call him and tell him that I keep writing and saying he sucks, he won't help a brother out. He threw seven shutout innings to improve to 8-6 and he now has four straight starts where he allowed one run or less. This was against the Tigers who are a pretty decent offensive team too. I will stay with what I have been telling you all since the beginning of the year. Washburn will falter down the stretch, even if it happens later than I expected.
Even though his ERA doesn't reflect it, Kerry Wood is actually on a little roll. Wood saved his fourth game in the month of July, but it was his first since July 11th. Wood has been a bitter disappointment to those who drafted him (except for him strikeouts), and especially for the Indians. This was Wood's 13 saves on the year, and there is basically no chance that he will get to 25. You have no chance to trade him and get anything but a Happy Meal in return, so all you can do is continue to have Wood in your lineup and going to church on Sunday wouldn't hurt either.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Mariano Rivera is in another world for closers right now. With the slow down of Broxton, Bell, and Nathan, Rivera has surged this month as the premiere closer in fantasy baseball. Today he needed six pitches to dispatch the Baltimore Orioles for his 28th save of the season. Rivera has eight saves this month and more remarkable, he has given only four hits and no runs in in his last 14.2 innings.
Brain Fuentes continues to amaze us all and so do the Angels. They came back against the Kansas City Royals after being down 6-3 and that was in part to Brian Fuentes closing the door on the Royals in the ninth inning. He is the first closer to hit 30 saves and is heading for a 50 save season. No matter who closes for the Angels, as long as they are competitive look for big-time closers in southern California.
Huston Street had an incredible June, but his July has been a bit lackluster. Tonight he got only his fifth save of the month and his 24th of the season. He struck out two and lowered his WHIP below one to a tiny 0.94. Street continues to be one of the more valuable closers in fantasy baseball. He is one of the more valuable closers in the league because of his numbers combined with his trade value perception. He is as good as KROD, but owners would ask allot more for KROD than Street. Trade for Street if you can.
Kevin Gregg got a 1.1 inning save today in a 10-5 win over the Phillies. Gregg was called on in the eighth inning to get the final out after walking Utley. He then had a quick ninth inning and looked very sharp. The walk to Utley was one of those unintentional walks. The Cubs are starting to win and get hot, which bodes well for Gregg owners as he aims for his 20th save at his next opportunity.
David Aardsma rocked his way to his 23rd save of the season securing a 2-1 win for Felix Hernandez. Aardsma pitched a perfect innings and struck out two. He season strikeout total is now at 55. He has slowed down with strikeouts in the month of July, but he is pitching exceptionally well overall.
Ryan Franklin blew only his second save of the season tonight against the Houston Astros. He had poor command of all of his pitches and gave up three hits before recording an out. Just chalk this up as a bad outing, but I've been telling you to sell Franklin and get value for him before the trade deadline. In the game, Valverde pitched a quite inning to get the win.
Other Appearances: Matt Thornton (1) - Pitched two innings for the save as the White Sox elected to give him the two inning save and give Jenks the night off. pick up Thornton if you can. He doesn't have the job, but he can get it sooner than later. Mike McDougal (6) - Closed out the Mets 1-2-3 in a rare save opportunity. His ERA is at a comfortable 2.25. Rafael Soriano (14) - He was quiet for awhile, but got back on his horse getting the save tonight. He did give up a run on two hits. Doug Mathis(1) - Got the save while CJ Wilson was resting. Matt Capps - Capps got the win coming in a tie game. He walked one and gave up a hit, while striking out two. Jose Valverde - Got the win after Ryan Franklin blew the save. Brad Lidge - The deuces were wild for Lidge today. In .2 innings he gave up 2 runs on 2 hits, 2 walks, and striking out 2. He is terrible. George Sherrill - Got some work today and gave up a run on three hits. He did strikeout the side.
Ryan Doumit had two home runs on Wednesday, which were his first two of the year. He has been doing respectable since coming off the DL, but hadn't been hitting for any extra bases. He had 15 homers in just over 110 games last season, so he has good pop for a catcher and there should be more where this is coming from. He could pop out ten more before the season is over, or at least get to ten, so if you have an underperforming catcher and Doumit is available, I wouldn't hestitate to make the move.
OK, that's enough. I've been fighting it. I don't want to advise starting Garrett Jones of the Pirates, but at this point how can you sit him? He homered AGAIN this afternoon and now has nine in just 17 games. Now with trade of Adam LaRoche, Jones will likely be playing first base most days for Pittsburgh. Obviously, he can't keep this pace up, but you have ride the hot hand while it lasts. I would suggest waiting until he takes an Ofer for two or three days before removing him from your starting lineup
Ryan Theriot seems to be a popular fantasy middle infielder, but I'm not really sure why. OK, he is hitting .300, but he offers little else. I guess his 36 RBI from a middle infielder isn't bad, he should approach 60, but he doesn't hit for enough power or steal enough bases. Sure, he stole three today, bringing his season total to 13. But he also had five in the first month of the season. So that means in May, June, and most of July, he recorded five steals. That isn't enough for me. Unless you are in a deep league or have injuries in your middle, I wouldn't keep Theriot on the roster.
Jaime Moyer was pretty poor again today, and continued his good start/bad start kind of pattern. When they are bad, they are pretty bad. On Wednesday, Moyer allowed four earned runs over five innings, walked three and struck out three. His ERA now sits at 5.65 for the year, and somehow he has nine wins. He had won five straight starts before today, but in two of those he had allowed six and four runs. I wouldn't trust Moyer to start for me unless he was facing maybe the Mets (right now), Nats, or Pads. Even then I would have my reservations.
Armando Galarraga might not have gotten the win tonight, but he at least seems like he has turned a corner and might go back to being the guy we thought he would be when the season started. Galarraga allowed just one run over 7. 1 innings and struck out eight. Three of the last four times he has taken the mound he has allowed just one run, and he has 23 Ks over 26 innings. If he is still out there, I would certainly give Galarraga a look. He is pitching better and the Tigers are actually competing this season.
Trevor Cahill had one of the best starts of his young career, but it is pretty easy to pitch (so they say, not that I have) when your team scores 12 runs in the first two innings. Cahill allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out four. In his previous four starts he had only pitched through the fifth inning once and walked 12 guys. Someday this guy will be an absolute stud, but it isn't going to be 2009. He is going to give you his fair share of good starts, but there will be plenty of inconsistency sprinkled in along the way.
Ricky Nolasco pitched beautifully again and is now 5-1 since returning from a demotion to the minor leagues. Nolasco allowed only two hits over 6.1 innings and struck out ten. He is on a major hot streak, and should be a reliable pitcher for the remainder of the season. He has also struck out at least five in eight straight starts. If you were lucky enough to pick him up when he was sent down, congratulations. If not, I'm sure his value is too high to try to trade for him now.
Orioles rookie Jason Berken stunk out loud again today versus the Yankees, and dominoes are starting to fall into place for a possible call up for prospect Chris Tillman. Berken is now 1-8 with an ERA north of 6.50 and hasn't won since his first start. Tillman, on the other hand, is rocking in AAA and was apparently scratched from his start in the minors tonight. Right now he is on tap to pitch tomorrow, but there doesn't seem to be any reason why he didn't make that start. Is a promotion to Baltimore coming soon? Perhaps. If you are out of it in a keeper league, grab Tillman on speculation. If you are in it still, you have to wait. In 17 starts this season he is 8-5 with a 2.42 ERA with 95 Ks in 93 innings.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
