Mock Draft Central ADP Analysis: SP Part 2

I'm back with Part 2 of the MDC ADP SP analysis. This time I'll be looking at the undervalued pitchers and those outside the top 250. For Part 1, looking at the overvalued starters, click here.

Undervalued

James Shields (109th overall, 22nd amongst SP)- It's not too surprising that a player like Shields who broke out seemingly out of nowhere last year isn't getting the full respect he deserves. However, if you looked under the surface stats, it was clear he always had the skills. In fact, to toot my own horn, I drafted him in both my leagues last year, one of which was a semi-shallow 13 team mixed league. He doesn't walk anyone and has an above average K rate, and his 3.53 xERA last season supports that he's no fluke. His only negative is he could afford to become more of a groundball pitcher as he only induced 43% on the ground last year. But with an improved Rays bullpen and defense and a solid offense behind him, I actually have him ranked as the 11th most valuable SP.

Tim Lincecum (119, 27)- I know I know, the Giants offense is horrible. Well we all know how unpredictable wins are, so I prefer to buy skills and not chase wins. Who knows, maybe the Giants score 6 R/G for Lince, but only 2 for their other starters! Anyway, back to the skills. Besides the worry of the mythical "sophomore slump", this is a skill set worthy of drooling over. A 47% GB rate and a very high K rate (9.2 K/9 in 2007) offset the elevated walk rate. If he could just get his BB/9 down to 3.5, you're looking at a low 3's ERA. Even if he just improves slightly to about 3.8 BB/9, you'd still get a mid 3 ERA. And of course we all know his stuff speaks for itself, so that isn't going to be questioned. I have him as the 20th most valuable SP.

AJ Burnett (136, 33)- The injury risk is probably keeping his ADP down. Also, I seem to always read the same ridiculous sentence when talking about Burnett- "He's not good, he's a career .500 pitcher!" Ok, I think we're all smart enough to realize using Burnett's W-L record to evaluate his career is a joke. Anyway, this is a guy who's somewhat similar to Lincecum. Excellent K/9, but just a mediocre walk rate. The difference is Burnett's GB% has been over 50% the last 4 years, and was a fantastic 55% last year. His xERA has been 3.47 or below the last 4 years, including 3.07 last year! The only worry about him is health, but he's got one of the best skill sets in baseball. He's my 21st most valuable SP, right behind Lincecum.

Tim Hudson (158, 39)- Doesn't rack up the K's, but with a GB% always around 60% and a good walk rate, you'll always have an ERA in the low-to-mid 3's, with a solid WHIP. Add in the very good Braves offense and you get my 25th most valuable SP.




Dustin McGowan (169, 44)- This wouldn't be a legitimate undervalued column if it didn't include McGowan's name, right? I really don't understand this ADP because he may be THE most hyped "sleeper" on message boards, blogs, and fantasy sites across the web. Has all this hype had no impact on his ADP? Anyway, as you've probably read everywhere else, here's another possessor of the skill trifecta. A 53% GB rate last year, a K rate nearing 8, and a decent walk rate just over 3. This guy was a top pitching prospect before TJ surgery several years ago, and his stuff is electric. The increase in innings is certainly a concern, but this is an exciting skill set, and one that has contributed to my valuation of him as the 18th most valuable SP.

Derek Lowe (181, 48)- Not the type of pitcher I normally endorse, as he's not the strikeout pitcher I usually draft. He's very similar to Hudson, though, with a GB rate consistently in the mid-60's, which always puts him near the top of the leaderboards in that category. He has a good walk rate, below 3, and his usual below average K rate spiked dramatically last year to 6.6. At 34, it's doubtful the K/9 spike will last, but he's had xERAs in the low 3's the last 3 years, so it seems as if he's actually got some ERA upside. I have him valued 27th amongst SPs.

Outside the Top 250

Greg Maddux- One of my favorite pitchers/players of all time, as a huge Braves fan, and him being a long-time Brave. His surface stats show a pitcher who's declining and will give you a 4+ ERA with few strikeouts. However, his xERA's the last 4 years (when his ERA has been over 4) have all been under 4, showing some potential upside. He still walks no one (1.1 BB/9 last year), and consistently has a GB% in the low 50's. He'll always help your WHIP, which seems to be an undervalued stat in fantasy baseball. I have him as the 42nd most valuable SP.

Andy Sonnanstine- Here's another name you've probably read about on the more intelligent fantasy blogs/sites. A similar skill set to James Shields, and an excellent answer to the question "who do you think will be this year's James Shields?" His ERA was dragged down (or pulled up?) last year by a .329 BABIP (due to the poor Rays defense) and a horrific 61% strand rate, also probably hurt by the joke of what the Rays called a "bullpen" last year. It will be tough for him to get his ERA below 4 since he allowed more flyballs than grounders last year, but a low 4 ERA and a solid WHIP are good bets with the improved Rays defense and bullpen I mentioned above when discussing Shields. I have him as the 51st most valuable SP and own him in all 3 leagues I've drafted so far.

Phew, that wraps it up for my MDC ADP analysis series. Yes, that means I've left out an article on Closers. I figure it just isn't really necessary as most closers are being drafted in the general range they should be. My personal strategy with closers is to buy the "unproven" guys with high skills who usually go in rounds 10-15. Guys like Capps, Soria, Soriano, maybe Manny Corpas as well. I also feel Huston Street, Gagne, and Lidge are being undervalued. Thanks for reading this series, and I hope I have been able to influence your choices during your draft.

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