Fantasy Baseball Xtreme was launched in 2009, but the format comes straight from its successful sister site: Fantasy Football Xtreme. Just like the football version, this fantasy baseball site has a Instant Player Trade Calculator and Free Live Mock Drafts. In fact, Fantasy Baseball Xtreme is completely free in 2009. One of the best features on this site are the Player Spotlights by writer RC. These Spotlights are individual player write-ups, which are kind of like the players on the rise and on the decline. This site takes pride on being truly year-round and given their track record with football, it is our guess that Fantasy Baseball Xtreme will only get bigger and better in the coming years.
Pros Completely free in 2009. Instant Player Trade Calculator. Constant Player Spotlights added to the site. Free Live Mock Drafts. Organized layout. Year-round news feed.
Cons The site is so new the forums are not extremely busy. The rankings are not updated every single day like its sister football site. Dynasty and keeper info not available in year one.
Fighting Chance Fantasy Sports was started in early 2008 by Ryan Hallam with the hope of helping fantasy players have a better chance of winning their leagues. As far as the preseason content that you can find there include, positional rankings, sleepers, busts, prospect lists, and closer reports. In 2009 you can also find Top 5 Burning Questions at each position as well as draft preparation at each position as well. These articles are a great guide to show when each player should be expected to be drafted, and is a strong help for any person drafting for the first time or the 100th.
Perhaps the best feature of the site is the personal attention you can get if you send in an email to fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. Fighting Chance Fantasy guarantees a personal, detailed response within 18 hours, a deadline the claim to have never missed. From draft strategies to adds/drops, trade reviews, and keepers, no question is too small or too big to send in. I know multiple people who have submitted questions, and not only are they happy with the response, but they have had a few other interesting comments. One is that Ryan always tries to give you multiple angles to look at, including some perhaps you hadn't thought of before. Also, he almost always asks for your feedback or how you felt about the issue that you sent the question in about. He doesn't just try to force his ideas down your throat, he takes your thoughts into consideration as well. The timely responses and the personal attention are two things you just don't find at many other sites.
In 2008, there was an article nearly every single night entitled Beyond the Boxscore in which Ryan broke down the games of the night and put forth all the news and notes that you needed to know. Who was on a hot streak, who was on a cold streak, closer movement, etc. were laid out every single night even as games were still going on. This instant news was invaluable to readers to get an edge up on the competition.
Ryan has also brought a couple other writers along with him to enhance the site. Corey Dawkins is a great resource for injury information because he is a physical therapist by trade. Dawkins not only has the training to be able to understand some of the technical information that is fed to us by the teams, but he knows just the right way to write about it so the every day player can understand. He is an invaluable resource to the site. New to the site for 2009 is Jesse Schwarz who has written very little, but he is off to a good start. Schwarz will be writing about trade strategies, as well as buy low/sell high players once the season starts.
Pros
Outstanding Fantasy Advice 100% free Email option with GUARANTEED response within 18 hours Personal attention not found at larger sites Nightly articles so you never miss breaking news Covers baseball and football
Cons With only few writers, content can be limited Layout/Navigation could be better Featured articles layout doesn't change in a timely manner
Jeff Niemann (RHP) -- Rays -- At 6'9" and 270 lbs. Niemann is quite intimidating out on the mound to say the least. It appears he has earned a job in the Rays starting rotation this spring now that David Price has been sent down. Niemann has been working on his splitfinger pitch at the pitching coach's request this spring with mixed results. With a pitcher of his size, it often comes down to mechanics and that is the case here. He has left his splitter up at times and it is getting hammered. When the season starts he will be throwing his downward plane fastball and featuring a very tight curve that is nearly impossible for righties to pull. The splitter is supposed to act more as a change and that should serve him much better once play time is over.
Nick Adenhart (RHP) -- Angels -- The Angels are losing starters left, right and center already this year thus all but guaranteeing Adenhart a place in the rotation. He was on the fast track up until control problems hurt him a bit last season both in the minors and in his few big league starts. It appeared that he was trying to be too perfect with his location and this led to uncharacteristic wildness something he has appeared to correct this spring. His fastball has the highly sought after inward slice to right handers and his changeup has improved greatly the past two seasons. He can now throw all three pitches for strikes and change speeds on each which is a great way to project success in the big leagues. The Angels do a tremendous job of calling a game based on what is working for their starters at that moment. They will be able to get Adenhart through some early season struggles if there are any. His makeup and natural ability should earn him some positive fantasy numbers this year and he makes for a very nice find in the late rounds of any draft.
Clay Bucholz (RHP) -- Red Sox -- It appears Bucholz is back to form after a turbulant 2008 season that saw his spend time on the disabled list and spend time at both AA & AAA. To date his spring ERA stands at just 0.46 with 15 strikeouts in his 19 2/3 innings. Although the Red Sox are stacked with starting pitching it would be very irresposible to send Bucholz back to the minors at this point in his development. His cureball and changeup are back to their plus-plus status and with Brad Penny out for some time still this is the perfect opportunity to allow Bucholz to take the next step. I believe in this kid big time and believe it is only a matter of time before he is the ace of the staff. With as good as the Red Sox will be this year it is absolutley mandatory that Bucholz be drafted in all fantasy legues.
Trevor Cahill (RHP) -- Athletics -- What excites me the most about Cahill is his nasty knuckle-curve ball that can make even the best of hitters look silly at times. That pitch is one of the very best "out" pitches of any young starters coming up and quite possibly the reason he is being handed the #4 spot in Oakland's rotation. Well that and the fact that Justin Duchscherer won't be back for awhile after having arm surgery last week. Cahill will need to hide the ball better I believe at the major league level because hitters here will cheat a bit and gain an advantage by noticing his grip especially on the curve ball. Cahill will help fantasy players out by striking people out and staying around long enough in games to qualify for wins and keep his ERA respectable. There is some concern with his motion possibly causing back strain down the line but he is a big kid who doesn't seem affected by aches and pains at least at this point in his career.
Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar as we near the 2009 season. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
We continue our pick-by-pick coverage for the KFFL K-FAD Expert League Draft. To recap, the league is your standard roster (2 catchers, 5 OF) 5x5 rotisserie 12-team league. I get the chance to represent Fantasy Baseball Search to play against some of the toughest competitors and expert minds in the industry.
The fourth segment of the KFFL K-FAD Expert League Draft was a great and fun 7 rounds. In reality, there was little pressure in rounds 22-28. I felt free to take my deepest sleepers and highest risk/reward players. Not only did I get most of the players I wanted, but I got outstanding players that will have big impacts on my fantasy team throughout the year.
Most of the picks in these late rounds end up on waivers at some point in the season and while I don't doubt that a couple of them will get the boot, many of them are keepers. Here is my analysis of my final seven picks for this expert draft. Overall I felt that I had one of the best drafts in the league and I will enter the season with a great team.
Planned Strategic Pick: I have to admit that I was shocked that Morrow was still around this late in the draft and even more shocked that I let him go that long. Its one of those cases of you assume he's gone till you double check. Morrow is a young stud with all the talent in the world. He has a super fastball and nasty breaking stuff. He will be one of the best young starting pitchers in the American League in 2009. One advantage that he has is he pitches in Seattle and one disadvantage is he pitches in Seattle. So, while he's in a pitchers park, he will lack offensive support. Overall this was a huge steal and a great anchor to my pitching staff.
Other Considerations: George Sherrill, Roy Corcoran, Jed Lowrie.
Strategic Plan: Fill a bench spot for middle infileder or grab a pitcher, RP or SP.
Round 23 - Roy Corcoran, Seattle Mariners, RP 5 W, 45 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 32 SV
Planned Strategic Pick: I wanted one more closer and Joey Devine and George Sherill went off the board. I've liked Corcoran all spring training, but my concern has always been whether or not he will get the job. Hopefully he will. If he does, its a great pick. Corcoran doesn't have closer stuff, but he has the mentality and he's the leader of the bullpen with JJ Putz's departure. Another bonus is, he will save games at Safeco and its hard as hell to hit home runs in that park.
Other Considerations: Jed Lowrie
Strategic Plan: Get a closer.
Round 24 - Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays, 2B 15 HR, .286 BA, 75 RBI, 83 R, 4 SB
Planned Strategic Pick: This was another one of those, what is this guy still doing on the board? Getting Aaron Hill for a 2b or MI roster slot was outstanding. If he wasn't injured last year, Hill would easily be a 11th through 14th draft pick. Instead, he fell to the 24th pick and I got a badly needed infielder for my roster and frankly for my starting lineup. Currently my middle infielder (MI) is Elvis Andrus, so having Hill is awesome insurance.
Other Considerations: Jed Lowrie, Ryan Garko, Casey Blake.
Strategic Plan: Get a bench player to backup my corner or middle infielders.
Round 25 - Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians, 1B 16 HR, 92 RBI, 88 R, .270 BA
Planned Strategic Pick: Just another risk free stellar pick. Garko is a 15+ home run player with solid batting average. The weakest position on my team was 1B. I only had to this point in the draft one first basemen and that was Gaby Sanchez, so getting more first basemen was an absolute priority. I had lost out on late picks like Helton and Kotchman, but I felt I did better getting Ryan Garko.
Other considerations: Travis Ishikawa.
Strategic Pick: I had to get another first basemen.
Round 26 - Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP 12 W, 3.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 145 K
Planned Strategic Pick: This was a bit of a homer pick, but again getting Penny in the 26th round is low risk, high reward. Penny is one year removed from winning 16 games and was injured last year. Now a Red Sox, Penny is mostly healthy and should start the season. If I get 11 or more wins out of him, its a great pick.
Other Considerations: Travis Ishikawa.
Strategic Plan: No strategy, get a value player.
Round 26 - Travis Ishikawa, San Francisco Giants, 1B 14 HR, 68 RBI, 60 R, .269 BA, 6 SB
Planned Strategic Pick: I've been eying Ishikawa for several rounds now. Finally, I drafted him and I think I got away with a steal. He is one of the better prospects coming up for the Giants this year and he's having a great spring. He will start at 1B for the Giants and he will likely start for me. He has a good combination of speed and power, so he will provide good fantasy stats for a 27th round pick.
Other Considerations: None.
Strategic Plan: Get a young first basemen.
Round 28 - Josh Anderson, Atlanta Braves, OF .263 Avg, 4 Hrs, 42 RBI, 92 runs, 40 SBs
Planned Strategic Pick: This pick was planned from Round 23. I was willing to wait till the last round to get him and I felt he would stick around. Anderson should get the job starting in CF for the Braves. They are out of options with him and risk losing the speedster if they send him to the minors. Anderson is a burner and can steal 40 bases if he gets over 500 at bats. He also has the capability to put up a good batting average, but as a rookie likely won't. Still, I got my 7th outfielder and he can steal bases and that is all I was looking for at this point. Again, very low risk, very high reward in the 28th round.
Other Considerations: None.
Strategic Plan: Get the speedster outfielder Josh Anderson.
Finally this marathon draft has ended. The team I assembled was one of the best overall in the league. In my next post I will examine the team position-by-position giving analysis on how each player will impact my team. Overall, the draft was fun, exciting, and all the participants made it not only challenging, but a humbling experience. I never knew who would be there for me the next round. Each expert took the players they wanted when they wanted and didn't answer to know one for early ADP cracking picks. My hat goes off to everyone who participated in the draft and to Nicholas Minnix for running the draft and getting 12 busy experts to stay on track.
March is the busiest time for your favorite experts. All of us are working around the clock to produce as much information as possible. At some point we all will get a little cross-eyed, tired, jaded, and maybe do some wacky things.
In the spirit of having fun, here is my top 10 list of Signs Your Favorite Expert Is Losing His Touch.
10. He tells you to draft Ryan Braun in the first round cause he has a solid fastball and a mean breaking ball.
9. He still believes in a resurgent Sammy Sosa and recommends taking a flier on Barry Bonds.
8. When asked who his top sleeper is, he tells you he'll sleep on it.
7. When talking about David Price he ends the statement with "About $5 at Wal-Mart and that is not a bad price."
6. At some point your favorite expert starts debating wood bats vs. aluminum bats.
5. Whenever someone argues with your expert's analysis and is answer is,"I went to MIT and I drive a Dodge Stratus! You can't even spell MIT!"
4. Your favorite expert is truly overworked and in need of a break when he starts pronouncing all the Japanese player's names correctly!
3. By the end of March they start to agree that Madonna looks good and was worth all the trouble she caused.
2. When he asks, "why is Miguel Tejada falling so far in fantasy baseball drafts?" A mental breakdown has to be next.
And The #1 sign your favorite expert is losing his fantasy mind...
1. When your favorite expert starts writing comments like this " ....there will be some regression in Hr/FB. He can likely continue to maintain a BB/9 at 3.00, but the GB% is something new for him and is likely to regress to the mid 40% range." When your GB% drops down to the mid 40% range, there is going to be problems. I think I saw that on Dr. Phil the other day.
I'll pose this question to start. Do you want to be able to walk up to your friends and say, "championship"? Well, I can't guarantee you will win a championship this year, but I can tell you how you can avoid winning a championship.
Avoid winning? Who would want to do that? There are certain players that kill fantasy teams and they can do it several ways. Some just cost too much draft capital and others are far too risky. I'll state this now, I've never seen a manager win a championship with Jose Reyes. Now I'm not saying that all teams with Jose Reyes on the roster over the past several years have never won a title. I'm saying, I've just never wittnessed it. That being said there are just players who kill your team and keep you chasing the league leaders.
Here is a list of players I would recommend avoiding in 2009 ONLY if you want to win a championship.
Jose Reyes - What will this #1 draft pick give us in 2009? Will he bat .300? Maybe, maybe not. Will he steal 60+ bases, probably not. Will he hit 18 home runs? Unlikely. Too many what ifs for a top 5 draft pick. Avoid him and grab a far more certain pick like Ryan Braun, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore, or David Wright.
Alex Roderiguez - This guy is a mess. He's going through a divorce, banging Skeletor, his "cousin" was poking him in the butt, and that probably led to a torn labrum in his hip. Why would any sane person invest a #1 draft pick in that mess. Walk away from the light drafters.
Ryan Howard - Listen, I like Ryan Howard. I love the home runs, but he is a average killer. You can find home runs all over the draft, and you won't have to chase average for 8 straight picks after taking him. Maybe you are addicted to getting 50 home runs with one player, but average counts as well and a possible .250 average is nearly as bad as 40+ home runs is good.
CC Sabathia - I loved Sabathia last year, but that was when he was with the lovable bunch in Cleveland. That's right, when his team played 57 games against the Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins. In 2009, Sabathia and America's favorite team to hate the Yankees have to play 76 games against hardened powerhouse offenses like the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, and even the Baltimore Orioles. You might not respect a couple of those teams, but the American League East is a bitter rivalry amongst all teams in the division and it's a different game. I wouldn't use a second or third round pick on this team killer.
Alfonso Soriano - First off, do we really know how old this guy is? Unofficially he is 33, but he gets hurt like he's 50. Soriano is in a decline and we all know this. If you want to invest a second or third round pick in this guy prepare to lose. You will get your 25 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases, but you will also sweat buckets every game and cover your eyes when you check the daily injury lists! SAY NO TO SORIANO!
Chipper Jones - Another player that can kill a fantasy team. Managers are drafting him in the 5th round and I'm asking why? Chipper pulls a groin taking a pee! He takes a poop and strains his abdomen! Jones has averaged 124 games per year over the past 3 years. He's 37 entering this year and he is just too risky. Take a young player like Chris Davis in the 5th. You'll thank me later.
Felix Hernandez - King Felix, really? More like King Overrated. This guy has the skills, but he hasn't matured as an ace should have at his age and he's on a terrible team. The Mariners offense is so bad that Russell Branyan is starting at first base! If you draft him, right the loss off on your taxes.
Kerry Wood - I loved him last year, but this year he's a mess. You can only get so many closers in the draft, so don't waste your time on this guy. If you end up losing your roto league by 6 points and you lost the saves category by 7, you can blame this injury prone cry baby of a closer for losing your championship.
In reality, not any one of these guys will kill your dreams of a championship, but they are simply not worth their ADP. There are a ton of great steals in the draft and those are the players who win championships. I've always said, finding the breakout players is how you win championships, not over paying for risky studs.
Few things are harder to make sense of than spring training stats. Case in point: last season Cliff Lee posted an Spring era over 8, but went on to win the AL CY Young award. However, some players are able to turn strong spring performances into full time jobs. Here are 5 players that have had great springs, and could be in line for big things in 2009:
1. Jason Motte RP St. Louis Motte has emerged as the most likely candidate to close games for St. Louis this season. He was terrific at AAA Memphis last year, striking out 110 in 66.7 innings. So far this spring, Motte has 4 saves and a 13/1 K:BB ratio. Motte’s ADP in Yahoo leagues is 17.2, but his stock is quickly rising. Look to steal him in the 14th/15th round and enjoy 25-30 saves with great K numbers.
2. Colby Rasmus OF St. Louis- Rasmus is a talented youngster whom many thought could have won a starting job last year. He has played very well so far this spring, sporting an average over .300 with good power. Rasmus looks to be the choice to man either LF or CF for St. Louis this season, making him a nice late round gamble, and a great target in keeper leagues.
3. Jordan Shaffer, OF Atlanta-Like Rasmus, Schaffer battled for a spot in Atlanta's OF as a 21 year old last year. This year his spring averages .396/.429/.585 and terrific defense make it almost certain that he’ll win the job. Schaffer, 22, is best known for for violating the league’s substance abuse policy last season, but with those problems are behind him, he could be in store for big things. Scaffer's a nice late round gamble in mixed leagues, and a definite target in keeper leagues.
4. Trevor Cahill SP Oakland Cahill rocketed through the A’s farm system, dominating 2 different levels. Question marks in Oakland’s starting rotation opened the door for Cahill, and he’s seized the opportunity by pitching well throughout the spring. He’s currently projected as number 4 or 5 starter in Oakland, and is a great late round target in mixed leagues, and keeper leagues alike.
5. Kendry Morales 1B Anaheim Morales has been terrific this spring, posting a .397 average with 3 HR and 8 doubles. He won’t make anyone forget the man he’s replacing (Mark Teixiera) but he's got the first base job locked up. Morales makes for a great late round pick and could put up numbers similar to James Loney or Connor Jackson: .290-15-85.
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SP Scott Kazmir,Rays, Operating with his trademark wicked fastball, and improving changeup, it's easy to forget that Scott Kazmir is just 25 years old, because he has been such a workhorse for the Rays over the past four years. Somewhat ironically, it is also his extensive use that has some fantasy players shying away from Kazmir in 2009. The young lefty's durability came into question last season, when he had some minor elbow soreness during Spring Training, and then tailed off significantly after the All-Star break. Going into July, he was flaunting his usual strong ratios, with a 3.04 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP, but he seemed to tire in the 2nd half, usually lasting only 5 innings, and posting a below par 4.03 ERA with a disappointing 1.38 WHIP. While questions about Kazmir's stamina have caused him to drop in fantasy drafts to around the 8th round, he probably represents a nice bargain if you can grab him there.
OF Corey Hart,Brewers, - Although we saw Corey Hart's batting average drop from .295 in 2007 to .263 last season, this was mostly the result of a dreadful September (.173 BA, 0 HRs), but he has otherwise been a fairly good prototype of consistency from year to year. Dating back to his first significant minor league season in 2002, Hart has steadily delivered about a .290 BA, with an unambiguous 20 HR/20 SB ability. Now 27, Hart enters 2009 in his prime, and as the only player in Brewers history to accomplish consecutive 20/20 seasons. Batting in the middle of a potent lineup behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, he still has some upside, especially if he can improve his plate discipline. Hart probably won't last past the 5th-6th round in your draft this year, but he is a great player to add with expectations of about a .285 BA, 20-25 HRs, 85 RBI and 20+ stolen bases.
Are you desperately looking for stolen bases for your fantasy team? Need an effective outfielder at a cheap price (draft wise). Look no farther than Josh Anderson of the Atlanta Braves.
By the looks of it, Anderson will be the center fielder for the Atlanta Braves. Anderson is having a solid spring batting .292 with 2 home runs. His main asset to any fantasy team is he can flat out run. Anderson is capable of stealing 50+ bases if given the chance to play a full season. In 6 minor league seasons he stole 279 bases while batting .294.
The other reason he is likely to be the center fielder for the Braves is he is out of options. If the Braves try and send him to the minors again, he will have to clear waivers. The Braves don't want to lose one of their prospects, plus Bobby Cox has expressed confidence in him.
I suggest you draft Anderson after round 20. He will instantly give you stolen bases and will even add a few home runs into the mix. Every year we see new great players emerge and Josh Anderson could be one of those players this year.
San Francisco Giants' rookie first basemen, Travis Ishikawa, is giving expected starting 1B , and top prospect, Pablo Sandoval, a run for his money at first base. Ishikawa is batting .314 with a league second-best 5 home runs thus far in Spring Training.
Ishikawa's power is not a fluke, he smashed 16 home runs with just 174 at bats for AAA Fresno in 2008. He added 3 more after being brought up to the Giants with 95 at bats and batted .274. Don't be surprised if Sandavol starts at 3B and Ishikawa gets the 1B spot. Either way if Ishikawa keeps hitting home runs, he will start somewhere in the Giants' line up.
Think of all the great spots you could be right now: On a beach in the Caribbean, on top of a snow covered mountain, a poker room in Vegas, visiting any costal city on the Mediterranean, pretty much anywhere but your office or your couch. When we talk Fantasy Baseball, spot in the order is very important, and I cannot think of a much better spot than sandwiched between two top five picks. To make it even better, the guy three spots behind you is a second round pick, and the guy three spots behind you drove in 115 runs last year. If you haven’t figured it out, I am talking about batting second for the Mets. With Jose Reyes (.358 OBP in ’08) leading off, David Wright (124 RBI in’08) hitting third, Carlos Beltran (112 RBI in ‘08) hitting fourth, and Carlos Delgado (115 RBI in ‘08) hitting fifth, the second spot there is a dream spot. A sack of potatoes could score 100 runs with those hitters as protection. With the off-season retirement of Moises Alou this spot falls to the new leftfielder, Daniel Murphy. Murphy received a vote of confidence from Jerry Manuel and will be in the two-hole to start the season. Manuel has praised the youngster for his plate discipline and once the season starts, and the games have more meaning, Murphy will see a steady diet of good pitches to hit. Pitchers cannot pitch around him and put him on base with the mashers behind him, so he will be challenged from day one. His minor league stats don’t show a ton of power or speed, but that is not what he is being asked to do. In 99 minor league games last year he hit .315 and had an OBP of .379. If he keeps that up, or anything close to that, he should easily be a cheap source of runs and average. He may lose some AB’s early to Fernando Tatis against lefty hurlers, but if he can prove he can hit lefties this ideal spot will be his all year. Grab in him in all NL-Only leagues and take a late flier on this undrafted gem in mixed leagues.
Hoffy’s Ballpark Figures:
Daniel Murphy – 475 AB / .303 AVG / 13 HR / 60 RBI / 14 SB / 89 R
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SP Kevin Slowey,Twins, Kevin Slowey emerged as an interesting fantasy prospect in 2008, with an ERA of 3.99, a 1.15 WHIP, and 12 wins in 27 starts. He throws an effective assortment of pitches, mostly using his 90 mph fastball, and mixing in a cutter, slider, a slow curve and a changeup. Although some scouts have suggested that Slowey doesn't have any one pitch which can be described as dominant, few pitchers can match his ability to throw strikes. In fact, the 24-year old was clearly one of the best control pitchers in the league last year, yielding just 24 walks in 160 innings. Dating back to 2005, his first year in the minors, Slowey has consistently demonstrated this type of impeccable control, allowing just 1.31 walks per 9 innings. The Twins righthander represents a solid addition to your fantasy roster in 2009, with the potential to pleasantly outperform his 14th-15th round draft position.
OF Matt Kemp,Dodgers, - After two years as a part-timer, Matt Kemp was given the chance to play everyday for the Dodgers last season, and the results were a fantasy-friendly .290 average, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs and 35 stolen bases. Going into 2009, there should be little dispute as to Kemp's status as LA's starting centerfielder, and if he spends a fair amount of time batting from the 4 or 5 spot, we could hopefully see an improvement in his HR and RBI numbers. While Kemp started off slow in the HR department in 2008, hitting only 3 HRs through May, his power kicked into gear around June, and he proceeded to hit 15 HRs over the June through September stretch of the season. Assuming that his late season HR pace is more indicative of his power potential, Kemp is well worth a 3rd or 4th round pick and is a candidate to join the 25/25 club in 2009.
We continue our pick-by-pick coverage for the KFFL K-FAD Expert League Draft. To recap, the league is your standard roster (2 catchers, 5 OF) 5x5 rotisserie 12-team league. I get the chance to represent Fantasy Baseball Search to play against some of the toughest competitors and expert minds in the industry.
The third segment of the KFFL K-BAD expert league draft went much better then the second segment for my team. I was able to draft all the players I needed and wanted, plus thanks to this being an email draft I was able to discover some fantastic steals. I have always said that after round 17 or 18 there are no bad picks because the players left all have positives and negatives. They have skills, but risks. Once you get that far into the draft, it's a free-for-all on the picks. Take your sleepers, rookies, minor league players etc. After the 17th round, go crazy and have fun with your draft. Let's go through picks 15-21 and discuss the strategic draft plan for the third segment of the draft.
Round 15 - Elijah Dukes, Washington Nationals 22 Hrs, 79 RBI, 76 Runs, .274 Avg, 21 Sbs
Planned Strategic Pick: As the 15th round was developing, I took note of what I still needed. After the first 14 rounds (midpoint of the draft) I still needed at least 3 starting pitchers, 2-3 relief pitchers, 3 outfielders, middle infielders, catcher, and a badly needed first basemen. With that many needs, I could take any player I wanted in the draft. The player I immediately targeted was Elijah Dukes. In only 276 at bats last year, Dukes had 13 home runs and 13 steals. He had great minor league stats and finally got regular playing time in the majors last year after being drafted back in 2002. Honestly, I was shocked he was still available. Up to this point, Dukes was one of my best picks. He also completed my outfield that now consists of Grady Sizemore, BJ Upton, Manny Ramirez, Chris Young, and Elijah Dukes.
Other Considerations: Matt Lindstrom.
Strategic Plan: Fill one of the holes on my team with the best available player. Primarily a closer or outfielder.
Round 16 - Joel Hanrahan, Washington Nationals, RP 4 W, 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 39 Saves, 78 Ks
Planned Strategic Pick: My strategy going into round 16 was simple, get a closer. I lost Matt Lindstrom in round 15, so I went for the next best on my personal list, Joel Hanrahan. He is the third closer I've drafted and joins Joakim Soria and B.J. Ryan. The absolute minimum number of closers you should draft is 3, but getting 4 or 5 is also a good idea. Hanrahan was on my short list of the perfect fantasy bullpen and he was the only one I got from my perfect bullpen. Broxton, Marmol, and Lindstrom all went much earlier than expected. Hanrahan delivers high saves and strikeouts.
Other Considerations: None.
Strategic Plan: Get a closer, particularly Joel Hanrahan.
Round 17 - David Price, Tampa Bay Rays, SP/RP 14 Wins, 3.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 140 Ks
Planned Strategic Pick: In this round I wanted to get my 4th starting pitcher. There were still plenty of pitchers to choose from, but when I saw David Price still on the board I took the chance. He is an outstanding talent and regardless of his status at the beginning of the season, he will pitch for the Rays early and often in 2008. He will likely open the season in the minors, but that is only for contractual reasons. Similar to Evan Longoria last year. We should see Price before the end of April. I did take Price over Erik Bedard, Joe Saunders, and Ubaldo Jimenez, so I believe he will have a rookie of the year caliber season. He was without a doubt a great value at pick 17, especially with a ADP of 137 (12th round).
Other Considerations: Erik Bedard, Joe Saunders, and Ubaldo Jimenez .
Strategic Plan: Get the best starting pitcher on the board. Take a risk if necessary.
Round 18 - Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers, SS .259 Avg, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 100 Runs, 41 SB
Planned Strategic Pick: By round 18 I only had one shortstop and one second basemen. I still needed to fill the MI roster slot and I felt there was another great value in the draft with Elvis Andrus. Early in the draft I scored some good stolen bases, but I still didn't feel I had enough speed to hold the category. Drafting Andrus gave me my stolen bases. He has incredible speed and he will make his major league debut at shortstop for the Rangers. With the light humid Texas air, we expect him to hit a few home runs as well. I still had no first basemen at this point, but passing on Andrus wasn't possible.
Other Considerations: Hank Blalock, Todd Helton.
Strategic Plan: I was looking for speed or power in a middle infielder or first basemen.
Planned Strategic Pick: Finally I was able to draft a first basemen. Throughout this draft, the 1B roster slot has been impossible to draft. Every time I targeted a first basemen he was taken. Once my pick arrived, there was a better value players to draft over the first basemen. I've been chasing the position the entire draft, but in round 19 I got the hot Marlin prospect Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez has all the skills; speed, power, and hits for average. He only has 8 major league at bats, but his minor league numbers speak volumes. Without a doubt, depending on a rookie for my first base slot is a risk, but with Gaby Sanchez it's one I'm willing to take.
Other considerations: Todd Helton, Casey Kotchman.
Strategic Pick: I had to get a first basemen and get the best value first basemen, evena rookie.
Round 20 - Ivan Rodriguez Houston Astros, C .288 Avg, 12 Hrs, 81 RBI, 60 Runs, 1 Sb
Planned Strategic Pick: During the 19th round IROD signed with Houston. I couldn't pass on him in the 20th. He is still a threat on offense and joining Houston just makes him that much more valuable. He will play 81 games in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. I suspect I'll get 12 home run power from him, but he could produce more. I did fill my second catcher slot, giving me a great catcher tandem in Russell Martin and Ivan Rodriguez.
Other considerations: Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow, Armando Galaragga
Strategic Pick: At first I was looking starting pitcher, but with Clement and IROD still on the board I decided to get a solid average and OK power catcher.
Planned Strategic Pick: If you haven't already noticed, I use the late rounds to draft young risky players. I've already gotten Andrus and Sanchez, now I add Armando Galaragga. Galaragga got started early this year in the WBC and looked very good. I think he is one of the up and coming pitchers in the American League and should have a very good year. I'm giving my top projections for Armando Galaragga in this article because I think he has a great chance of producing it. If he does, he was a steal in the 20th round.
Other Considerations: Brandon Morrow, Aaron Hill, Roy Corcoran, Jew Lowrie, Ryan Spilbroughs.
Strategic Plan: I primarily wanted a pitcher this draft. If not, maybe a middle infielder.
Leaving rounds 15-21 I filled major holes on my team and filled up my roster. At this point as round 22 comes around I can pick the best available player. I no longer have to worry about filling slots, but stealing late studs or at least possible studs in the following rounds. Several teams are probably in the same position, but it gives me a serious advantage over the teams that are not in the position to free pick the rest of their fantasy team.
Where the heck did this guy come from? Before I go on my tirade about Cook, he is a bust for a few reasons, but the biggest is because according to Mock Draft Central he is being drafted in the 13th round. The 13th round? Aaron Cook? Yeah, I'm not joking. Now let's tear him apart. This is a guy whose ERA was under 4.00 once in his career before last season, and last year it was 3.96. He had never won even ten games before blowing up with a 16 win season in 2008. His WHIP has never been below 1.34 in his career, and that isn't even any good. Lastly, his strikeout numbers are embarrassing. In 2008, Cook fanned just 96 guys in 211.1 innings. Horrible. What can you expect from Cook this season? Well, he is a below average pitcher who throws to contact at Coors Field. What do you think? Expect him to have a record under .500, and ERA over 4.00, and his strikeouts to stay around 100. Does that sound like a guy who should be drafted in the 13th round, before Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Erik Bedard, and Clayton Kershaw? Not to me, and hopefully not to you either.
Prediction: 8-12, 4.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 97 Ks, 185 IP
Buerhle is a guy who always gets decent respect in fantasy drafts for two reasons. One, everyone knows who he is. Even if you are relatively new to fantasy baseball, no doubt you've heard of Mark Buehrle. Second, the guy has a rubber arm. He has thrown over 200 innings for the last eight seasons, and has made at least 30 starts in all of those years. However, is durability a reason to put a guy on your roster? Because outside of that, what is he really bringing to your team? His ERA is always in the high threes, and in 2006 it was 4.99. His WHIP is nothing to write home about, as it has been over 1.34 in two of the last three seasons. He doesn't get any strikeouts. His 140 in 218 innings last year was his best in three years, and in 2006 he whiffed a grand total of 98 guys in 204 innings. His record also generally hovers around the .500 mark, meaning he's not all that valuable there either. So, outside of taking the ball every five days (which I admit has some value), how is he helping you? If the guy is making every start, but very few of them are any good, is that a positive? Take a chance on a young, exciting arm late, before settling on an old retread who is just hanging on because of his name.
David Price (LHP) -- Rays -- Any conversation about pitching prospects must begin with David Price. The big lefty has been touted since being taken #1 overall out of Vanderbilt in the 2007 draft. Last year he quickly rose through the ranks of Tampa's farm system helping both AAA Durham and the big league club make playoff runs. The fact that Price was the guy the Rays trusted to get the final outs in the ALCS speaks volumes about the man. He can dominate both sides of the plate with his fastball as well as his slider. Both are considered "out" pitches and are even more devastating because he can throw both at a variety of speeds. I would be shocked if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training but even if he didn't I'd still recommend keeping his on a fantasy roster. Just like last year, Price is too good to keep down for long. He will rack up strikeouts his first time through the AL and should have plenty of wins when all is said and done for what will be a good Tampa Bay team.
Jordan Zimmerman (RHP) -- Nationals -- Zimmerman's stock has risen higher than a bonus check for AIG executives. This guy is absolutely dominating the Grapefruit League this spring and is leaving the Nationals with little choice other than to pencil him in to start every fifth day for them. It is difficult for me to understand just how Zimmerman has become so damn good so quickly. A couple of years ago he was a player without a position who had the dreaded label of 'good athlete' but had to take a path and spend a few years making his way. Two years later he is a franchise type starter with four above average pitches. The problem for me is that none of his pitches are truly dominating with the possible exception of his hard curve ball. While he doesn't have the pedigree of David Price, Zimmerman is more likely to make an impact in the early going in 2009. His longevity we will have to watch unfold but for now there isn't a better starting pitching prospect in baseball than Jordan Zimmerman.
Tommy Hanson (RHP) -- Braves -- Hanson is making his push for a rotation spot by dominating the Arizona Fall League and continuing that trend right into spring training. This coming off a year in which he reacted to his promotion to AA by promptly throwing a 15 strikeout no-hitter. This kid is the real deal. He has a natural bite to his fastball which isn't overpowering but falls in to right handers and away from lefties. His curveball is filthy with a 12-6 break on it and he is way ahead in mastering a changeup that makes his fastball better than it actually is. It is unknown if the Braves will take Hanson north when camp breaks. My feeling is that he will begin in AAA and have to toil down there a bit before getting the call. The Braves added some pitching this offseason and will save a year of arbitration if they keep Hanson down for a month. If you got the balls, take Hanson late or pick him up early in the season and wait for the eventual call up which will happen this year.
Anthony Reyes (RHP) -- Indians -- I put Reyes here to make a point. The Breakout Prospect series I have been doing for Fantasy Baseball Search is not all about minor league or even young talent. It is about players who will come out of nowhere to produce good fantasy baseball numbers. I don't care about age or eligibility and neither should you. What we are all looking for is production so before you write me to point out that Anthony Reyes isn't a "prospect" any more believe me kimosabe...I know. It is safe to say that Anthony Reyes is not on any fantasy site's HOT list or even been named a possible sleeper by anyone in the industry. This is why you read Fantasy Baseball Search. Reyes busted out with the Cardinals. But before he did he showed flashes of brilliance most notably game 1 of the 2006 World Series. He has great stuff and a funky motion that will confuse hitters. The Indians are emphasizing that Reyes throw more two seam fastballs this year which is a great idea. The pitch has fallen out of favor with pitching coach Dave Duncan who forced Reyes to ditch it in favor of the four seam fastball. The subtle drop in velocity however gets hitters ahead of the pitch and forces many lazy pop outs or ground ball double plays. With a spot in the rotation guaranteed, new found confidence and minus a Stalin like manager/pitching coach I foresee a big year for Anthony Reyes.
Gio Gonzalez (LHP) -- Athletics -- It's all about the strikeouts, baby. Gonzalez is small but deceptive lefty with a knack for pitching away from contact. His curveball is one of the best in the minor leagues. He is downright scary to left hand hitters with an almost sidearm delivery. The problem for Gio has been finding the strikezone. He gets into lapses with his delivery, most often his landing spot which causes him to be high out of the zone. The A's have a history of correcting such mistakes and if they can do so with Gonzalez may have a future ace or good #2 starter on their hands. If given a full season of starts Gonzalez could rack up close to 200 K's in 2009.
Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar as we near the 2009 season. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA (TICKER) —Boston Red Sox shortstop Julio Lugo will miss three to four weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee Tuesday.
Expected to compete with Jed Lowrie for the starting position, Lugo will “certainly” not be ready for the start of the season, according to manager Terry Francona.
Lugo complained of knee soreness in Friday’s game against the New York Yankees.
Hampered by a torn quad, Lugo only played in 82 games last season, batting .268 with 22 RBI and 12 stolen bases.
The 33-year-old is batting .271 over his nine-year career.
The True Guru's Take: This completely opens the door for Jed Lowrie. He's got tremendous skills and can make an effective late round pick. In many league systems Lowrie qualifies at 3B/SS, which gives him even more value. Right now he is being drafted very late, but expect that to change quickly. If he is there for you in round 16 or 17, draft him.
With many leagues already holding drafts, it’s interesting to see what trends are developing in other leagues. One trend that is apparent: people love Ian Kinsler.
Kinsler’s average draft position in Yahoo Leagues is 13.6, making him a borderline 1st round/early 2nd round pick. It’s really not suprising that so many people are high on Kinsler. He enjoyed a terrific season last year, posting a .317-.375-.517 line, with 18 HR, 76 RBI, 41 doubles, 26 steals, and 102 runs scored in just 518 AB's. Kinsler is a dynamic force on offense, and is even more valuable because he’s a second baseman- a position where that type of productivity is quite rare.
Yet despite his productivity, and position scarcity, Kinsler is a dangerous pick so early. Why? Unfortunately Kinsler can’t stay on the field. Take a look at his games played and missed during his first three seasons:
In 2006 he played a total of 120 games (423 AB's), and missed 37 games due to a Fractured Thumb. In 2007 he played a total of 130 games (483 AB's), and missed 27 games due to a Stress Fracture in his Foot In 2008 he played a total of 121 games (518 AB's), and missed 37 games due to a Sports Hernia
As you can see, Kinsler has never played more than 130 games, or topped 520 AB’s in any of his 3 seasons in the majors.
For comparison’s sake, in those three years (2006-2008), Kinsler has played fewer games than J.D. Drew (Kinsler 371, Drew 395). Yes you read that right: Kinsler has played fewer games than the man known in Boston as D.L. Drew.
So what does all this mean? I love Kinsler as a player, but I’m unwilling to use a late 1st/early 2nd round pick to get him. It's difficult for a team to bounce back when it looses an early round pick to injury, and based on his history, Kinsler is a prime candidate to miss significant time this season. Add to it that I feel there are better values at 2nd base later in the draft (Jose Lopez in round 15 for example) and it’s extremely unlikely that Kinsler will show up on any of my fantasy teams.
That being said, it's hard to argue with the type of numbers Kinsler put up last year, not to mention where his numbers would have ended up had he not missed time due to injury.
If you ARE going to draft Kinsler, you need to protect yourself. To do so, you have to treat him like a running back in Fantasy Football, meaning you need a handcuff. For those unfamiliar with the concept, to “handcuff” is when you draft the player you want AND that player’s likely replacement as injury insurance. Based on draft position, the ideal handcuff is the aforementioned Jose Lopez (ADP of 175/ 15th round). Lopez hit .297-17-89 in 2008, and should be a starter in all but the shallowest leagues. However if you can steal him in the 15th round, you’ll be golden if Kinsler gets hurt. If Lopez isn’t available, others like Placido Polanco (ADP 213/18th round) or Orlando Hudson (ADP 223/19th round) are suitable options.
Remember, this is not someone you’ll be playing over Kinsler, just insurance for a Kinsler injury. Unfortunately if Kinsler’s history is any indication, it’s not a matter of if he’ll get injured, but when.
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According to Mock Draft Central, Wandy Rodriguez is being drafted with the 230th pick overall. That is the 20th round! Based on the way that Rodriguez has been pitching there is no way he should be lasting that long. The only reason he could be going that late would be because of his injury concern. Rodriguez also needs to improve his pitching on the road. He owned a 2.99 ERA at home in 2008, and a 4.34 ERA on the road. All of that being said, Wandy is a great choice, especially if you can get him anywhere near the 20th round. Rodriguez is a great strikeout pitcher, as he struck out 131 batters in 137 innings in 2008. Rodriguez had his best season in 2008, as he dropped his ERA by just over a run from 2007, and he had his first winning record. The Astros should be improved in 2009, and Rodriguez should be a big part of that. He might not pitch a full season, but if he can make 25 starts, he will make a good fantasy impact.
Prediction: 14-7 record , 3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 175 Ks
Although he just turned 21 years old in February, it appears that Travis Snider is in the majors to stay. He has passed Adam Lind for the starting left fielder job, and by the way he has performed, Snider will be there for a long time. He was impressive at Single-A ball when he hit 16 homers and drove in 93 runs in just 118 games with a .313 average. Last year in AA ball he hit 17 homers and drove in 67 runs in only 98 games. In his short stint in the majors the kid hit righties, the kid hit lefties, the kid hit .389 with runners in scoring position. He is one of the better hitting prospects of the last couple of years, and is someone that you should be drafting in the later rounds of your league. He will pay dividends in his rookie season.
We continue our pick-by-pick coverage for the KFFL K-FAD Expert League Draft. To recap, the league is your standard roster (2 catchers, 5 OF) 5x5 rotisserie 12-team league. I get the chance to represent Fantasy Baseball Search to play against some of the toughest competitors and expert minds in the industry.
After the first seven rounds I felt very happy with the resultsof my draft. I made great picks every round and so far everything had gone to plan and I felt secure in the thought that I had the best team up to that point. My outfield was absolutely dominating with Grady Sizemore, B.J. Upton and Manny Ramirez. I had a ace starting pitcher in Jake Peavy and one of the best stoppers in fantasy baseball with Russell Martin. Add in Stephen Drew at shortstop to cap the first seven rounds.
The next seven rounds were completely different with each pick more intense than the one before. I learned a few things in the first seven rounds that assisted me in the following rounds. First, these experts do not draft anywhere near according to the ADP. They draft according to where they value the player and where they want to take the player.
There is no safety for leaving a player hanging out there one more round. You cannot even guess who will go next, so the strategy I continued to deploy was directly after my pick I carried down the reamining selections I still wanted and added more players to that list until I had 13. That way, I kew I'd get one of them.
I did change part of my strategy for rounds 8-14, at least for th eplayers I selected before my pick. Instead of trying to plan out each pick and trying to assume who was picked, I started taking the best available player that I critically needed. I narrowed each draft pick even more by choosing the three positions I wanted to draft that round. The only strategy I kept from the first seven rounds was to pre-select 13 players for my next pick as mentioned above. Not only am I prepared to make my pick right way, but I'm guaranteed a player I want. In-between most picks I was lucky and by the time my pick came around I had several players to choose from my list of 13.
Here are my picks for rounds 8-14. Lets see how it turned out.
Round 8 - Joakim Soria, Kansas Cuty Royals, RP 42 SV, 5 W, 1.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 70 K
Planned Strategic Pick: As round 8 approached I knew I needed to get my first closer and the time was right. I still needed everything else, but the best players at their positions that were left were the closers. So I went with a value pick. It was the right time in the draft with four closers already drafted. I narrowed my choices down to Mariano Rivera and Joakin Soria.
I decided to go with Soria for a few reasons. First, Soria is younger and has more upside. He is absolutely nasty on the mound and commands a microscopic WHIP and ERA. Also, he will save 40+ games for the Royals. There is the threat of him being traded, but he is not in a contract year. I believe Soria can be a top 3 closer in the American League by the end of the year.
Other Considerations: Mariano Rivera.
Strategic Plan: Get the best closer available.
Round 9 -Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers, SP
17 W, 2.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 200 K
Planned Strategic Pick: Round 9 was a special round. It was only the second round of the draft where I felt I can take anything I want (the other was round 7). With so many players already off the board that should have gone much later, it was anybody's guess who would be drafted next. By examining the previous rounds I noticed only four pitchers had been drafted in the last 2 1/2 rounds, and Lackey was drafted the pick before mine.
I had a feeling pitchers would start to go fast and I found an SP that I felt was valued at at least a 8th round draft pick. Billingsley is a stud pitcher in the making. He is a overpowering strikeout pitcher and will one day compete for a CY Young. By drafting him I increased my hold on strikeouts and improved wins. Billingsley was the third pitcher I've taken in the last four rounds, so my pitching staff is strong and I can focus elsewhere.
Other Considerations: Jonathan Broxton.
Strategic Plan: Get a dominating pitcher.
Round 10 - Chris Young Arizona Diamondbacks, OF 27 HR, 95 RBI, 93 R, .270 BA, 19 SB
Planned Strategic Pick: This pick was a complete surprise. As the pick approached I was hoping to get James Loney, Tori Hunter, or Jonathan Broxton. I got burned badly with Loney and Hunter going with the first two picks of the round and when my pick came I was shocked to see Chris Young still on the board. I had to make a tough choice between Young and Broxton as both were targets for my team. I felt Broxton would hang around one more round, so I went with the value pick of Chris Young.
Young is a 20/20 caliber outfielder. I only had 3 outfielders at the time, so getting Chris Young as a FOURTH OUTFIELDER was too good to be true. The thing I love about Young besides the 20/20 status si he has the ability to have a special season. You can see it in him and he just has to put it all together. I'm willing to take that risk in th 10th round and at the least get a possible 20/20 with a .250 average.
Other Considerations: Jonathan Broxton, Zack Greinke.
Strategic Plan: Get the value player for the outfield or get the sleeper closer.
Round 11 - Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay, SP 14 W, 220 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Planned Strategic Pick: This draft has been crazy thus far with several picks I did not expect. In round 11 I got more surprises. First off I lost the other two players I was considering. I would have taken Jonathan Broxton, but he was gone. I was considering Howie Kendrick for certain reasons, but he was taken 2 picks before mine. So the only pick left of my three picks was Kazmir and frankly I had no idea why he was still there.
I had to check the news to see if he broke his leg that day I was so shocked he was still around! Between all the drafts I've been in, real or mock, I've seen Kazmir go as high as the sixth round and as low as the tenth. Grabbing him in the 11th was a steal, and I scooped up my third starting pitcher who is a strikeout master making me the most dominating team for the strikeout category so far in the draft. In my opinion of course. Adding Kazmir gave me three potential stud starting pitchers.
Other Considerations: Pablo Sandoval, Yovani Gallardo.
Strategic Plan: Get a closer or the best value pick. In reality all the offense players left were not worth an 11th round pick.
Round 12 - Edwin Encarnacion, Cinncinati Reds, 3B, CI 26 HR, 89 RBI, 84 R, .281 BA, 11 SB Planned Strategic Pick: I amvery high on Encarnacion going into the 2009 season. He is setup for a career year at his age. However, I felt this was my worst pick in the draft. I really needed a first basemen and I considered Mike Jacobs with this pick. I probably should have gone with that pick cause he didn't make it back to me.
Encarnacion does fill the CI position, and he has great upside, but not taking a first basemen here was a mistake. On the brightside, Encarnacion has 30 home run potential and should get his batting average up to .280. Another plus, the Cincinnati offense is vastly improved and his RBI totalled should go up big time.
Other Considerations: Mike Jacobs, Jose Lopez, Chris Ianetta
Strategic Plan: Fill an infield position. I badly needed MI or CI players.
Round 13 - B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays, RP 42 SV, 2.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 74 K, 4 W
Planned Strategic Pick: This round I loved. The entire time I waited for a closer with two premium closers left out there in Bobby Jenks and BJ Ryan. When both of them fell to me I decided on BJ Ryan. Ryan might be 34 years old, but he is still a premier closer and was a steal in the 13th round. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Ryan came back faster then most pitchers and still accumulated 32 saves in a shortened season. He is now completely healthy and should have no problem getting 40 saves. I felt I got a 9-10th round value for my 13th round pick.
Other Considerations: Bobby Jenks, Matt Weiters.
Strategic Plan: I wanted to get my 2nd closer. I felt I waited much too long and was lucky to get the caliber closer that I did get.
Round 14 - Mike Aviles, Kansas City, 2B/SS 16 HR, 70 RBI, 81 R, .288 BA, 18 SB
Planned Strategic Pick: This round I knew I had to get one of two middle infielders I still needed. After watching Kelly Johnson fall off the board I was happy to see the exact guy I wanted still there in Mike Aviles.
Aviles is one of the top young middle infielders going late in drafts. I've seen him go as high as the 11th round and as low as the 20th. Getting him in the 14th round was a great value, especially because I had no second baseman to this point. I believe he is capable of a 20-20 season. The best part was I filled a position I badly needed to and took some pressure off me in the draft. That is a critical part of drafting, making sure you narrow your needs as much as possible.
Other Considerations: Heath Bell, Erik Bedard.
Strategic Plan: Fill a position need. I badly needed middle infield, starting pitcher, 1B, and RP.
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SP Jonathan Sanchez,Giants, It's difficult to assess Jonathan Sanchez's potential fantasy value in 2009, because he hasn't been able to consistently perform at the major league level thus far in his young career. One thing is for certain, he has exhibited the ability to consistently produce strikeouts. Throughout his minor league career, Sanchez tallied about 1.3 strikeouts per inning and over his limited major league experience, he has produced about one strikeout per inning. His primary pitch is a fastball, which he typically throws in the 90-94 mph velocity range, and he also throws a changeup, slider and curve. What makes Sanchez relatively unique, is the movement he can generate on his fastball and changeup. While he does sometimes struggle to throw strikes, the movement on his pitches helps to create an above-average frequency of swings without contact. Assuming he secures a spot in the Giants rotation this spring, Sanchez is worth gambling on in the later rounds of your draft.
OF Nelson Cruz,Rangers, - Nelson Cruz was once considered a top prospect, but was only able to show brief glimpses of his potential during his early years in the minors. He is now 28, and while he has still been bouncing between the minors and majors for the past three years, he seemed to really put everything together last year at triple-A Oklahoma, with 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, a .342 average and 24 stolen bases. After getting called up to Texas in August , Cruz initially struggled, but then went on to have an exceptional September, where he hit .356, with 6 HRs and 23 RBIs in 90 at-bats. Although Cruz does seem to strikeout at a fairly high rate, his power proclivity is undeniable, and combined with his untapped stolen base potential, he makes a terrific player to add to your fantasy roster, at a very reasonable ADP of about round 11-12.
A debate is now raging withing the industry as to what is the definition of a "breakout" and a "sleeper". For the astute listeners and readers you probably have realized that fantasy sports sites don't often share the same definition. While all definitions are probably similar, each site has made its own modifications to best predict and present the player as a breakout or sleeper. I have had many long discussions with my brother (Chris Farino, http://www.profantasybaseball.com/) and others in the industry concerning the definitions and to this date we only agree that we have different interpretations for breakouts and sleepers.
When I started delivering my analysis on Fantasy Baseball Search, I wanted a way to express special players who were setup, poised, or even destined for a great season. The standard terms used at the time and still are sleepers or breakouts. Like everyone else, I have my own modified definitions for the two types.
Now, for the people and other experts out there who continue to question my sanity for the choices I make at breakouts and sleepers just to justify how bad they really are? Those are the experts who don't get it because they don't even know how to spot a sleeper, let alone predict a breakout. So how can they then judge my breakouts? For the few who don't get my complicated four group system (Grains, Fruits, Vegetables, Meats or Legumes for the newbies) with my diabolical schemes, remote sensing, OnStar, folk dancing, and the dreaded long-division. That's right, RC also dances the polka while picking breakouts.
Sleeper - The sleeper is by far the most exciting player in the draft to take. He normally is picked at an exceptional value, which is the major reason he is the sleeper. The value of a sleeper is based on how good he will perform against where he is taken in he draft, its that simple. Sleepers are also players that can be relatively young and unknown or the veteran who's poised for a big unexpected season. The key for my definition of a sleeper is a player that slips in the drafts, but plays to the value of a high draft pick.
Last year some of my sleepers were JacobyEllsbury, Tim Lincecum, and Jon Lester. Those were three players that you could draft much later in the draft and get top value for them. This year Ellsbury is a 4th round pick, last year 12th round. Lincecum is a 2-3rd round pick this year, last year 10-11th. Even better was Lester, who wasn't even drafted in most leagues and is now being drafted as early at the 8th round. In reality, picking sleepers is like trying to find the next studs.
Breakouts are much different and the definitions vary far more. For me a breakout player is someone who is lined up for a big season based on various scouting, situational considerations, and statistics. You can consider a breakout season a career year for that player or even better, a well known player hitting his prime. Of course I like to use my breakouts to also point players who have their stars aligned for a special season. These players can already be studs like Johan Santana, but even studs are surrounded by some doubt and need that "veil of doubt" lifted from them.
Is Santana worth a #1 or #2 draft pick? Will he continue to regress? Will the team around him continue to fail him. I've taken a minor beating for calling Santana a breakout. Sure it's a little crazy, and maybe I should remove him from the list. However, I think he is in for a special season. Assuming he says healthy, I think he is due for a big year and another Cy Young award. He has 1 full year under his belt in the National League, he has a more united unselfish team, a killer closer, and a new coach opening the season. Last year he was leaned on too many times to have amazing performances and when he was ready to come out, the manager had to leave him in because of the Mets terrible bullpen. Bottom line, I want my readers and listeners to know that last year was an anomaly created by a mixture of bad situations. 2009 is different and I think he will improve his stats across the board including 21+ wins. That is why I call him a breakout.
So for the people who want to tell me that my breakouts are questionable, tell me that after I picked Sizemore as a breakout last year. Was he a questionable call in hindsight going 30/30? How about Brian McCann who had a huge breakout season hitting 30 home runs and batting .300. Even BJ Upton, who was a top pick and a breakout in my eyes. I felt he was a 30/30 player in the making last year, but a torn labrum stopped him short on the home runs, while he still doubled his stolen base totals. Again, in 2009 he is a breakout on my site. He had surgery and he is healthy for the new season. I still believe Upton is a 30/30 player and I think that if he stays healthy he will achieve that. So, when it comes to your second round pick I'm telling you to take Upton early because next season he will be a first round pick after we watch him play in 2009.
My job is to make sure I'm crystal clear in the players I think you should draft in order to win. No silly formulas or cheesy GUT picks. The way I present that "clarity" is with sleepers and breakouts. If you don't agree with my definitions that is fine, but you cannot doubt the success of my picks. You cannot argue with the fact that I'm not giving advice to smug wannabe experts with overrated college degrees who think they know better then everyone else, but to the novice player in his first season. I have to play the field because those are our customers and not all of them study baseball as closely as I do.
We all have good and bad picks. Trust me, I miss as much, if not more than I hit. Let's leave the criticizing to the season in play and make our judgements after that. In the end some go home winners and some go home losers. No matter how you define sleeper or breakout, that is all that matters.
In 2008, I started the battle cry to draft closers early, and it caught on like wildfire. It has always been one of my most successful strategies. Last year, it was a major part of my overall fantasy baseball strategy and my victories.
This year, I've developed a different strategy relating to closers. At the start of the 2009 season, major league teams will have at least 16 new closers for the 32 teams. With so many new closers or ones that changed teams, there is a lot of uncertainty, excitement, and intrigue within the ranks of closer.
This is the first year in a long time, I tell you to hold off on drafting a closer. Last year, I told you to consider taking closers in the fourth round and to get one within the first seven rounds.
This year, you can wait till rounds eight, nine, or even 10 to get your first closer. Let the other guys invest in Papelbon, Rivera, Nathan, or F. Rodriguez with expensive early round picks.
Bide your time and draft closers like Jonathan Broxton and Carlos Marmol. Those new premium closers can get drafted no earlier than the eighth round (Broxton) and as late as the 14th round (Marmol). These guys are at the top of the new class of closers.
Last year, they totaled 213 strikeouts and 21 saves. Now, the jobs belong to them (we assume Marmol will be the Cubs' closer), and with those stats pitching for the Dodgers and Cubs, they are the top closers in the National League. We believe one of those two closers will lead the NL in saves.
We also like Matt Lindstrom, who will be an outstanding closer drafted in the later rounds. He packs a 98 MPH fastball and is one of the hottest new closers in baseball.
Other great late round closers are Joel Hanrahan, Heath Bell, Joey Devine, and Roy Corcoran. All of these closers can get drafted in the later rounds and make great additions to your bullpen.
Corcoran is a leader in the Mariners' bullpen and should be available in rounds 20 and beyond. Hanrahan is one of the more underrated closers and will likely get 37-39 saves for the Washington Nationals.
Heath Bell is taking the job from legend Trevor Hoffman (Hoffman is now the closer for the Milwaukee Brewers), while Joey Devine is injured but the leading candidate to take Huston Street's old job. Street is now the closer in Colorado.
Even now, there are still some closers in waiting that could get the job at some point in the season or even at the start of the season with injuries. Pitchers like Brad Ziegler, Chris Perez, Manny Corpas, Jason Motte, Jose Arredondo, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, and Jensen Lewis will either start the year as closers or could at some point take over the job, because of injury or the failure of the starting closer.
I firmly believe that Arredondo will be the Angels' closer by June (replacing Brian Fuentes) and that Ziegler could start the season as the A's closer in place of the injured Joey Devine. Kerry Wood will likely get hurt at some point, handing the job to Lewis.
With so many new closer options, I see no reason to draft closers in the early rounds (3-8). Sure, you won't get the security of a Papelbon, Nathan, or Rivera, but you will get a young, hungry for success closer that could be the next great Rolaids Relief Man of the Year.
Get your offensive players and/or stud pitchers in the early rounds and get your closers a bit later.
My perfect bullpen of 2009 would be:
1. Jonathan Broxton, Round 9:46 Saves, 91 Ks
2. Carlos Marmol, Round 13:46 Saves, 102 Ks
3. Joel Hanrahan, Round 16:39 Saves, 78 Ks
4. Matt Lindstrom, Round 18:38 Saves, 85 Ks
If you can draft that bullpen, you will dominate saves and give your strikeouts a major boost along with ERA and WHIP. Having a strong top-ranked bullpen is key to victory. If you have any questions concerning closers, email me at thegurus@fantasybaseballsearch.com.
Last year Lowerie got called up early to fill in for the ailing Mike Lowell and Julio Lugo. A shortstop by trade, Lowerie is able to play most any position in the infield and should qualify for third base and shortstop in most leagues. While his offensive numbers weren't that impressive last season (.258 Avg, 2, Hrs, 1 SB in 260 at-bats), he will start the 2009 season on the roster and most likely become the Red Sox starting shortstop. IN college and the minors Lowrie showed some power, speed, and batting for average, but those numbers don't give him the credit he deserves. Scouting Lowrie last year we noticed not only could he be a viable .300 hitter someday, but he possesses skills like raw power and the ability to hit in the clutch. Not all of that applies to fantasy players, but he's on a team that will need clutch hitting all the time and that should bode well for the 25-year old shortstop. We expect him to have a great rookie campaign and by being at the bottom of the Red Sox lineup (likely 8th) he will get plenty of time to mature and produce for the Red Sox. If he bats before Varitek, expect some stolen bases, mainly from hit and runs. Also, his OBP should top .370 this year as Lowrie is very patient and works allot of walks.
Prediction: .278, 14 HRs, 71 RBI, 68 Runs, 5-7 SBs
Blog Talk Radio Guru League #1 Getting to know you're the competition: part 1
Hello Everyone I am Jason Swist you may know me as PrimeTime21 or the Silent Expert. I will be blogging this year about Blog Talk Radio Guru League #1 going over teams and match ups each week. We have great bunch guy's a mix of experts and could be experts. This is going to be 5x5, H2H, Roto style league with 12 owner. One difference we will be using OBP instead of batting avg. We will have 29 men roster counting your bench with Daily transactions but a max 4 pick ups per week and a min 40 innings pitched per staff a week We will be having our draft Tuesday March 10th 9:00pm est. at Yahoo!
Let's meet the experts. First we he our Commissioner: Todd "The True Guru" Farino most of you know him as the host of The Fantasy baseball Gurus Show and owner of Fantasy Baseball Search. Todd lives in Henderson, NV and is 34 years old. loves dogs, Baseball, His garden, guns and also is always up to a good debate. Just sucks he can't out-duel the Silent Expert. HA HA. Todd is bring 17 years of experience and FBS expert league championship with his new school approach to be one of the favorite to win it all.
RC Rizza is the owner of Junkyard Jake and has been running the site for 11 years. He has made a name for himself there and as one of the hosts of The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show and as the waivers writer for The Coaches Box blog. In 2008, RC finished runner-up in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League, and uses his extended knowledge of statistics to win. He has earned the nickname, Rc The Numbers Don't Lie" Rizza. If your team needs help give this guy a call during the show RC give great insight and is one funny guy.
Evan "The Censor" Dickens was the original editor at Fantasy Baseball Mafia at its inception in February 2007. He later became the host of the Wire Tap pod-cast and helped launch it into the top 10 fantasy baseballpod-casts on iTunes. He now writes for his blog called, "The Starting Line" and will host the new Fantasy Baseball Search pod-cast, The Fantasy Baseball Bullpen with co-host Todd Farino. Evan is the pitching guy for FBS he would great guy to ask your pitch and ditch questions.
Ryan "SlyRy" Hallam is 31 years old and lives in a small town in upstate Saugertues NY. He has been doing fantasy for about 10 years. Favorsite team St. Louis. Ryan is the creator/writer of Fighting Chance Fantasy Sports. He has had an obsession with fantasy baseball for over ten years and specializes in keeper leagues. Not only has he won several championships over the past six years in keeper leagues, but his readers have had big success as well. This is Ryan's 2nd year as a contributor to Fantasy Baseball Search. In addition to this site, Ryan has been published in the USA Today Sports Weekly, usatoday.com, mlbfrontoffice.com, majorleaguereport.com, junkyardjake.com, as well as other great sites. Ryan is the host of the Fantasy Baseball Scouting Report and is a co-host of the Fantasy Baseball Gurus show with Todd Farino and RC Rizza on Blog Talk Radio. Along with that he has also been a guest on ESPN Radio on the Soundoff with Sinkoff radio show. Ryan is one of the good guys in the industry he is honest and all ways willing to help you out.
Jeff Mans has spent 19 years covering fantasy sports earning the nickname "The Scout" for his ability to pick out top players well before the rest of his peers. With fantasy football established, Jeff is ready to take on his favorite pastime Fantasy Baseball. He now brings his popular fantasy column The Hot 8 to Fantasy Baseball Search as well as his passion for the game of baseball. Jeff will be focusing on prospects and minor-leaguers but is always up for some in depth strategy talk as well. As a long time player of the Strat-O-Matic Baseball game, he is fast and knowledgeable with stats, in-season strategy and player development.
