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Friday, March 14, 2008

Five Players--The Marlins

Looking at five key players for the Marlins, and yes, most of them are the putative centerfielders.

Let's start with the CF situation. I could discuss five players just in terms of contenders for the CF job. As of the latest depth charts at MLB.com, here are the contenders, in order as they are listed:

Cameron Maybin There is no way he hits and there is no way he is ready. The Marlins are making such a sad, tremendous error if they ask him to play everyday in the majors. He simply had an abysmal contact rate of 57% and will bat less than .200 if stretched to play every day. There are probably 20 more well qualified guys they could get for free.

Alejandro de Aza Unlike Maybin, the Marlins shouldn't really care whether they burn him out and ruin him by making him an every day player. He is not the cornerstone of the franchise and is a fifth OF type who will always be on the margins. Again, there are probably 20 guys better than him available for free. Why burn a good prospect like Maybin when you can burn a bad one like de Aza.

Cody Ross Here is the guy who should get the job and if he doesn't start with it out of Spring Training he will probably end up with it. My reasoning is simple: he is the only one with any shot at all of being a decent hitter. He actually looks like a decent sleeper to me, with a strong BB rate of 10% and a fair contact rate of 78%. He could be a "Bull Durham" rookie who comes from nowhere to turn a profit, so keep him on your radars.

Turning away from the CF morass:

Jeremy Hermida Fantasy players have been touting him for years. Sadly, I auctioned him two years ago at $17 (!) in a high stakes league. Ugh. That 20-20 potential is long gone, but the 20 HR potential is still there. Health is an issue but is he stays healthy he could be an All-Star this year quite easily. His second half performance of .338/.398/.559 was a bit much, but he did have a .298 xBA so a .300 average is not out of the question.

Mike Jacobs Another guy I wasted my hard earned money on (and now I sound like Dom Irrera), I hope he finally busts out this year, since I snagged him in my high stakes league this year at $10. In the second half last year he had a 47% FB rate, and if he keeps that up 25 HR should be a given, as he has solid, above average power. One can hope.

That CF situation is so dire, but it is very similar to the Twins' situation with Carlos Gomez. In both cases I hope the teams look to the long term rather than 2008 as both players could use at least one and probably two years in the minors, Sadly, I think the allure will be too great and the competition too non-existent that in both cases I can see these careers being wasted. It is no small consideration that they were both traded for superstars and the pressure on the GMs for these players to succeed will be too crushing a weight for them. I hope I am wrong.

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