Unconventional Wisdom ...

So many fantasy baseball websites repeat the same advice. Repeat the same advice. Repeat the same advice.

Sure, many experts go out on limbs, ... but often they end up sitting together on the same branches. Sleepers are sleepers to so many different websites that they are no longer sleepers anymore. They're wide-awakers. Everyone knows about them. Same with busts. The same busts are busts on so many sites that they lose their bustiness. They sag and droop. They become cleavage. And not even good cleavage. In fact, if you've seen one fantasy bust list, you've probably seen them all. Don't stare at the busts too long though. You'll go blind. And end up looking like a boob.

I encourage you to see for yourself. Compare the mock drafts on websites like Mock Draft Central or Fantasy Baseball Mafia. You're seeing most of the same players drafted in the same rounds. In many ways, there is a herd mentality in fantasy baseball. No one ever wants to rock the boat.

In the grand scheme of things, fantasy baseball is still a relatively young discipline. Sure, it boasts its own writers' association and a cavalcade of advice-based websites, but it has not been dissected with the rigor, precision and high-level analytics that one might find in academia. I am waiting for the day when a graduate student writes his thesis on the virtues of WHIP and OPS or the PhD. economist who applies game theory to auction drafts. Although it is nice to see the "applied economics" blog like Freakonomics discuss the precocious maturity and preparation of a young Alex Rodriguez, the closest thing we have to true analysis in fantasy baseball is the armchair advice of people like myself and a growing mountain of raw statistical data.

Fantasy baseball often rewards the intrepid, the trailblazers. In 2008, I encourage you to develop your own theories. Test out a new hypothesis. Experiment wildly in a consequence-free environment. Here, I'll help you get started In the spirit of bucking convention, here are some unique tips for tapping the keg of contrarian fantasy advice:

1) Draft only players on winning teams -- Winning teams often have good players. They win more than bad teams and usually score more runs. Good teams preserve wins for your pitchers and provide more stat-stuffing opportunities (R, RBI, SB) for your offensive players.

2) Punt a category completely --Steals and saves are often an albatross for many fantasy owners. There are a limited amount of players who produce consistently in these categories, yet many owners spend most of their managerial energy tracking down average and below average producers. If you don't have a top-tier performer or two in these categories, consider focusing your attention on other statistics. If you're a good fantasy owner, you'll figure out how to make up points in the standings incrementally in other categories.

3) Go Moneyball on them -- Fire your scouting staff. Get rid of your spreadsheets and glossy fantasy baseball magazines. Obsess about a certain metric, like BABIP, K/9 or OPS. Test out a statistical hypothesis for a few weeks. See where it takes your team in the standings

4) Drink an energy drink before your league's last five rounds -- I love yard sales. There's a unique pleasure that I derive from riffling through other peoples' junk looking for a hidden gem, a diamond in the rough. I really like showing up at yard sales late, ... right as the homeowners are packing things up and getting ready to call the Salvation Army to pick up the old couches, computer monitors and stacks of baby clothes. That's when I go in for the kill and start making deals. The homeowner is trying to wrap things up, and you can usually anything you want for a pittance, ... if not for free.

Stay alert at the end of your league's draft. Do your research on rookies, prospects and comeback contenders. Most of your league mates will be ready to switch on to auto-pilot during your draft's final rounds. Check your league's draft results from last season and you'll see what steals were available in the final rounds.

Bottom line: Take some chances this season. Experiment with a new approach. Try something new. What's the worst that could happen? Sure, you may finish dead last in your league and be the object of ridicule for your attempt at innovation. I'm sure people laughed at the Wright Brothers before they got their first plane off the ground. Or Al Gore before he invented the Internet and saved our precious planet with his convenient truths.

I give you the immortal words of "Frank the Tank" in 2003's Old School.

"And uh, I happen to look over at a certain point during the meal and see a waitress taking an order, and I found myself wondering what color her underpants might be. Her panties. Uh, odds are they are probably basic white, cotton, underpants. But I sort of think well maybe they're silk panties, maybe it's a thong. Maybe it's something really cool that I don't even know about. You know, and uh, and I started feeling... what? what I thought we were in the trust tree in the nest, were we not? "

Maybe you'll find something really cool new idea that the rest of us don't know about. Maybe you already have. Perhaps you have some diabolical, off-the-beaten strategies of your own that have worked for you in the past. We'd love to hear about them. Post any of your "unconventional" wisdom to The True GURU's Fantasy Baseball blog ... we'll gladly steal them and claim them as our own.