The Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Blog with The True Guru and Friends
 

Friday, February 29, 2008

Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 Overrated Players

With draft day soon approaching, you're going to read more lists than you can possibly know what to do with. So in that spirit, here is another one for you to peruse: my top ten list of overrated fantasy baseball players. The list is in no particular order. I'm not saying don't draft these players, just realize they come with some warts and maybe should not be drafted as high as you might think.

I'll get you started with one: Albert Pujols. Click here to read!

Top Fantasy Starting Pitchers: 16-20

#16
Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies): Cole Hamels is a 23 year-old left-handed starting pitcher. When Hamels was first called up in 2006, he struggled mightily in the first half of the season, posting a 5.44 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and walking 24 batters in just 44.6 IP. Despite his initial struggles, Hamels bounced back in the second half of 2006 by posting a 3.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 24 BB's in 87.6 IP (the same amount as the first half, but in double the IP). In 2007, Hamels proved why experts love looking at second half stats. In 183.3 IP, Hamels posted 15 wins, a 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 177 K's, and just 43 BB (2.11 Ctl). There is just one small reason why Hamels isn't higher on this list - health. Towards the end of 2007, Hamels was shut down by the Phillies for a month due to an "elbow strain." Anything arm or elbow related should immediately send off red flags. If not for this injury, Hamels would certainly be in the top 15. Regardless, Hamels is a fantastic fantasy pitcher, and hopefully he’ll have a healthy season for his fantasy owners.

Click Here for the 17-20 Pitchers!

Some Thoughts On "Expert" Leagues

There are 12 teams, all experts. Surprisingly, most experts tend to do the same things. I am not sure if it is psychological in that they do not want to look foolish, or that if they do something wacky they will no longer be considered experts.

Note especially for someone like me this is no trivial factor, given that my "reputation" in the industry is still being defined. It is one thing for Ron Shandler to come up with a new plan it is quite another for me to do so in my first expert league....

Click here for the full article.

All-In on Brandon Webb

General Matt Finkelstein defends his man crush on Brandon Webb:

As Pat explained in a recent post, last Monday we participated in an online auction of the top players in an inaurgual season for a new keeper league. The second phase is a live auction on 3/9, where those obscure middle relievers and 4th outfielders will round out our rosters...

Click here for the rest of the article.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Jacoby Ellsbury Is The Steal of The 2008 Draft

Ok, I took a massive beating in my latest Expert Mock Draft hosted by Mock Draft Central for many of my picks, but I really got hammered for taking Jacoby Ellsbury with the last pick in the 9th round or the 108 overall pick. Sure it was early. Yahoo! has him ranked 126, and his average draft position is 132.1. Mock Draft Central has him ranked at a ADP of 122. So why then did I get hammered for taking him with the 108 pick when I wouldn't have another pick till 132?

Allot of experts don't see the potential of Jacoby Ellsbury, and I'm here to put the doubters out on their heels. Last season Ellsbury emerged in September and was on fire for 15 games. He batted .353 in 33 total games. He added 3 home runs and 9 stolen bases with 41 hits. The guy was a monster. He continued his hot streak into the 2007 playoffs (including the World Series) going 10/24 (.416 average), 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2 SB, and 4 extra base hits.

He did all that while being a rookie with only 116 major league at bats on one of the biggest stages of them all, the World Series. Talk about pressure on a 24 year old! So now we are at 2008, and still some of the experts don't feel he'll be the starting center fielder for the Red Sox. I can't possibly think of a reason why? Odds are the Red Sox will trade Crisp with the resigning of Keilty, and even if there is a miracle chance Crisp starts he'll be replaced by Ellsbury by early May.

Of course forget that everyone in Boston loves the kid including Terry Francona, Theo Epstein, and my wife. The Boston Herald even did a story interviewing the greatest Red Sox center fielder Fred Lynn called Lynn: Ellsbury has familiar look. In this excellent article Fred praises Ellsbury's skills and compares Ellsbury to himself in his early years and a stellar Red Sox center fielder in 1975.

Could 2008 be Jacoby Ellsbury's remaking of Fred Lynn's 1975 where Lynn won the Rookie of the Year and the MVP? Let's not get crazy, no MVP is coming his way. In our opinion he's a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year for the American League. Here's our projections for Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008 as the lead-off batter for the Boston Red Sox. Assuming he starts and he will, we see the following 2008 Projections:
500+ At Bats
.315
12 Home Runs
45 SB
.365 OBP
75 RBI
100+ runs.

You got it. That's what we expect out of him and we are being somewhat conservative. I'm banking on the fact that the kid hammered the ball in the world series with more pressure on him than the atmosphere of Venus. It's crazy to expect less from this rising star in MLB. Even Geoffrey Stein over at Mock Draft Central agrees, "Ellsbury is the rookie to have". I don't doubt that if he starts on opening day for the Red Sox he'll be a All-Star candidate.

So back to the draft. I took him with the 108th pick in the Expert Mock draft and I think it was an absolute steal. No question about it. The draft was being being Broadcast by Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports. Paul is highly respected throughout fantasy baseball and by Fantasy Baseball Search, but we disagree with his comments on the pick. He commented on my pick as being "questionable" and Tony Cincotta over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia commented the pick was "too early". I respectfully disagree with both.

If I feel that Ellsbury is going to put up the projected numbers I think he will, then he was an absolutel theft in the middle of the night while the other experts were sleeping.
Also consider the fact that he very well would have been gone by the time my 11th pick (132 overall) came around, so it was a genius pick on my part. In my opinion Ellsbury should be a 5th or 6th round pick, so if you get him after that he's a steal.

Listen to my radio show as I will be watching this kid closely and discussing him with the experts all season. Hey, if I'm wrong, well at least I won't be alone. The Red Sox, Fred Lynn, and many experts like Geoffrey Stein will also be wrong.

Don't worry, he'll give Jose Reyes a run for his money. Get the pun "Run", you know speed? COME ON!

Todd "The True GURU" Farino

Fantasy Baseball: Sleepers to Look for on Draft Day

Well the baseball season is near, and we’re already into Fantasy draft season. Here’s a list of sleepers, and guys I feel are coming up on a good year, but may be overlooked some on draft day. Which underrated guys do you have targeted for this upcoming season? Here are a few that I am looking at. I will start with the starting pitchers, because I usually try to draft the quality hitters early, and try to find value there late.

Click Here for the Sleepers

My Recent Auction Results

Matt Finkelstein, from my site The Fantasy Baseball Generals, and I are joining a new high stakes league that is starting from scratch. The initial auction would take far too long to do in one day, so the commissioner decreed that we would start with the first 200 players from the ADP list and would auction them on Fantasy Auctioneer, doing as many as we could in a set amount of time. At a later date we will complete the auction.

Strategically this presented a somewhat nightmarish scenario from a planning perspective. There are many unknowns in this scenario: we didn't know how the other players would react, or their experience level, or how many players would be auctioned. The only legitimate strategy here was to have no pre-conceived plan but merely to target players we like at reasonable prices and to remain supremely flexible and fluid...


Click Here for the full article.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

The Top Five NL Shortstops

Fantasy baseball drafts are just around the corner and if you're like me, you're putting together cheat sheets for players at each position. You have to be ahead of your competition on draft day.

Let's take a look at the top five shortstops in the NL. Also given are three who just barely missed the cut.

Click here for the Top Five NL Shortstops!

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

What Is An Expert?

Reading books and articles across the internet on all manner of topics, it is clear that there are many "experts." At least, that is what they represent themselves to be. Some legitimately are experts (Ron Shandler, the folks at Baseball Prospectus for example--and there are others whose exclusions here are not important) and some aren't. In political blogs there are all manner of "experts" at least in their own minds (Barbra Streisand anyone?). But what makes an expert??

Click Here for the full article.

Trouble in High Stakes Fantasy Sports

As the 2007 fantasy football season wrapped up, many fantasy owners settled with their managers and began looking forward to another competitive and grueling season in 2008. The skies weren’t as sunny in Michigan, however. The American Fantasy Football League, or AFFL, a provider of high stakes fantasy football contests, found itself unable to process nearly half a million dollars’ worth of prizes as a result of a lack of capital. The company is now searching feverishly for an investor while many customers patiently wait. FantasyFanatics.com sat down with Neil Wickham, the businessman behind AFFL, to learn more about the situation and its resolution.

Click here to go to the story!

The Perils of Attacking the Expert

I read an interesting article appropriately entitled "LMAO, He Took Santana #1 Overall." The article points out that there is a lot of bashing of experts who publish their mock draft lists etc. On the radio show on Sunday, Todd "The True Guru" Farino aptly opened the show with discussion about how anyone can say another expert is "wrong" so early in the season, and this discussion, though brief, was directly on point.

As usual, I have a historical anecdote that illustrates the perils...

Click here to read the full article

ADP Analysis of First Basemen

From General Mike Podhorzer:

Overvalued

Justin Morneau (34th overall, 7th amongst 1B)- It seems that Morneau is being overrated for the 2nd year in a row. I'm not sure I have a major problem with his rank within the position, but instead where he's being drafted overall. I won't quote all the numbers as this is a guy we're all familiar with, especially his mysteriously awful 2nd half. And no, he's not on this list because of that 2nd half...

Click here for the full article

Vicious Experts at the MDC Expert Mock Draft 3

Wow was I railed by by the experts at the latest installment of Mock Draft Central's Expert Mock Draft. First off I want to state how impressed I was with Mock Draft Central's draft system and I recommend all leagues to use it and sign up with them for FREE ASAP.

The Expert Mock Draft held on February 25th was also broadcast by Paul Greco of Melnick And Greco Fantasy Sports. It included many experts from around the industry like ESPN, Rotowire, and MLB.com.

There are different philosophies at work in a draft, and I don't want to waste too much time on them, but here is my opinion on the different wisdom's used in a draft and the lack of genuine courtesy amongst fellow experts.

First off, what is an expert anyway? Do we just tag ourselves expert, do others call us an expert, or do we have a fancy nameplate on our desk that says, "Fantasy Baseball Expert".

Either way all of us think in one of two ways, conventional wisdom and unconventional wisdom. These two broad philosophies have been waging a quiet and somewhat peaceful war on the blogs and fantasy information pages throughout the Internet over the years.



On one hand you have the more common conventional wisdom, which stands by its proud and proven tools of statistical studies, 3-year projections, and future projections based on reliable current news and information. It's almost like a preset algorithm that you just pump the numbers into and shazzam you have 'Jose Reyes = Awesome Player'. Their logic is flawless, and they're information is updated with the latest team and player news. The only flaws in conventional wisdom is it sometimes ignores the unconventional that impacts fantasy baseball.



Then there is the less common, but growing philosophy of unconventional wisdom. While this wisdom takes into account all the tools and information that the conventional wisdom uses, it also considers unconventional factors involving players that will cause players to become more or less valuable then conventional wisdom thinks. You see, conventional wisdom didn't see Mike Lowell having such a great 2007, Johan Santana's down year, or Jonathan Papelbon's rise in 2006. Sure they will see Ryan Howard's breakout or Hanley Ramirez's mad skills, but can they spot the next unknown breakout? I believe unconventional wisdom thinkers do it all the time.

With that said, lets get back to the expert draft. I was so lucky to get the 12th pick in a 12 team draft (Sarcasm), which is a tough pick since you get 2 picks in a row, but then wait 23 picks to pick again. When my pick arrived I had a fairly simple choice. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, and others you'd expect to be around. In my situation I firmly believe both types of wisdom would choose Pujols as I did. His ADP (Average Draft Position is the 8th pick and regardless of his elbow problems he hit 32 HRs with it last season. If there was a significant chance he would be out for the year no one including me would take him.

Now, Paul Greco on his radio broadcast bashed me for my selection. Listen to his podcast here. Why would you bash a guy for selecting Albert Pujols with the 12th pick? MDC (Mock Draft Central) had two previous Expert Mock Drafts where Pujosl was taken #3 and #7 in the second draft.

First Expert Mock Draft
Second Expert Mock Draft

Unconventional wisdom, which I believe that I give and subscribe to dictates that I would actually pick the guys who I think are going to have an outstanding season. With unconventional wisdom I believe that Ryan Braun is going to have an outstanding season, so with my 13th overall pick I took Ryan Braun knowing he wouldn't be around by my next pick and knowing he will qualify as a OF/3B! Again Paul Greco and some other experts bashed me even know he has a ADP of 13.67, and I guess didn't realize he would be an outfielder as well.

Now, how do they know right now that I didn't make a great pick? Who are they to say I was wrong in selecting a player who hit 34 home runs in a shortened season? Its fair for them to disagree, but how can they say I'm wrong when the season still needs to be played out.

One focus of mine in this draft and with my own unconventional wisdom is I selected the players I have studied and feel will have great or breakout seasons. I didn't just go with the default ranking based on conventional wisdom and select the next ranked player. I went with my expert wisdom and I made other selections based on my own theories. I'm not saying all my picks were good, several weren't, but I've won enough leagues to know I'm doing something right.

Then I was bashed for my 5th round pick of Chone Figgins saying he was a one-dimentional stolen base player with one good season and nothing more. Well, again the unfair and ill informed analysis. Actually Chone Figgins has had three fairly stellar seasons with a total of 155 stolen bases, averaging 164 hits and a .296 average. Of course last season he batted .330. I like this guy. Not only do I think he will have a regular spot in the lineup (DUH), but he's a great lead off batter. Let's compare Chone Figgins to Jose Reyes in 2007:

Jose Reyes had 681 atbats, 191 hits, .280, 78 stolen bases.
Chone Figgins who was hurt last year had 442 atbats, 146 hits, .330, and 41 stolen bases.

Now, Jose Reyes was a justified 3rd pick of the draft. Chone Figgins was the last pick of the 5th round. Not bad value for the 5th round right? Especially when he only played in 115 games due to injury. The two previous seasons Figgins played in 158 and 155 games, and had over 600 at bats, so my EXPERT WISDOM sees allot of value in this player. Paul Greco and company did not agree. You have to ask yourself why? Were they bashing just to bash? Is there a friendly rivalry here? I don't know. Chone Figgins ADP is 54.58, and I got him with the 60th pick.

The final pick I will mention is my pick of Jacoby Ellsbury. First off I'm a huge Red Sox fan, and I have contacts close to the Red Sox organization that CF is his to lose. He will start there. Now, I took him with the last pick in the 9th round. Again, I have been telling my readers how great he can be, and I believe his numbers will rival Jose Reyes numbers. Based on that I think he was a steal in the 9th round. Last season in limited activity of 33 games, and only starting 16 games he got 41 hits, 3 home runs, and 9 stolen bases. If you just do the averages for a full season with conservative expectations he should get 600 atbats, 190 hits, 15 home runs, and 50-60 stolen bases. Now, how good does the pick look now? Sure it s a risk, but that what I'm here for. To tell you who will breakout in 2008 and now just spoon feed you the same great players from the previous season like conventional wisdom experts will do. I used my expert analysis to determine his value.

Of course I was bashed for taking him too early. Frankly I was bashed all night. My philosophy going into this mock draft was I wasn't going to play it safe. I wanted to pick the players I'm telling you to pick. Now, I have an expert league draft coming up so I wanted to be careful not to play my full hand, but I made my point.

I will hold on to this team and comment how well it did at the end of the season good or bad. To see the full mock draft I participated in:

MDC Expert Mock Draft 3

I want this post to serve as a warning to all experts who feel they have the right to bash other expert's rankings. We are all making educated guesses and we will all get some right and some wrong. We shouldn't be negative to our fellow experts and instead politely disagree. I will comment more on this on my Radio Show Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show I welcome your comments on my position.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino

Monday, February 25, 2008

Chris Young and the Family Feud

Judging the "family feud" of Melnick and Greco:

When you compare what he can do to the likes of Alfonso Soriano or Derek Jeter, Young is a terrific bargain even if he hits only .250. If he can hit .275 then he is the superior value by a large margin given their ADPs. In any event he should reach the 30/20 plateau in 2008 no matter what...

Click here for the full article.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Nominate Travis Hafner in the First Round?

From General Mike Podhorzer:

A similar idea to my previous article about nominating sleepers and potentially undervalued players early, is throwing out a DH-only eligible player during the first few rounds. This year, Travis Hafner is a perfect player to use this strategy with. Not only is he only eligible at DH in most leagues (with 20-game eligibility), he is also coming off a tremendously disappointing season.

Click here for the full article

ADP and Catchers

From General Mike Podhorzer:

Overvalued

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (141 overall, 7th amongst Catchers)- Manager Ron Washington continues to say that the starting catcher gig is an open competition between Salty and Gerald Laird. In addition, GM Jon Daniels has indicated that if Salty doesn't win the starting job, he'll likely return to Triple-A. We've all heard the rumors that Laird will be traded. But he hasn't been yet, so taking Salty as the 7th catcher off the board is an enormous risk,

Click here for the full article

Fantasy Baseball 4x4 League Mock Draft

Hey folks, let's get our Mock Draft on. The season is near, and there is no need to fear, but evaluating our mock drafts you should have a better idea how to handle the real thing. Remember, all fantasy drafts are not alike because some leagues are different, and of course, because all fantasy managers are different.
Scoring for Batting Categories
BA - Batting Average
HR - Home Runs
RBI - Runs Batted In
SB - Stolen Bases

Scoring for Pitching Categories
ERA - Earned Run Average
S - Saves
W - Wins
WHIP - Walks + Hits / Inning

Click here for all the picks!

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Tune in February 24 at 7pm EST for The Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show!


Join Todd Farino, Patrick Dicaprio, and RC for the first Fantasy Baseball GURUS show on February 24 at 7pm EST. We will be discussing anything and everything about fantasy baseball. If you need draft help, tune in and email us or call us at (646) 716-9203 and have three experts help you with your draft.
join us every week throughout the season for the best no holds-barred fantasy baseball talk.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Bible Book 6 - Trading Players Like Stock

Fantasy Baseball Bible Book 6 - Trading Players Like Stock

Here is an excerpt from Book 6. To read the entire book visit The Fantasy Baseball Bible

1) Trading is the single scariest move you can make in fantasy baseball. Trades can rescue a season, win a season, or ruin a season. For the most part you do not need to trade during the fantasy baseball season while still winning. The first lesson in this book should be that. Only trade when you have to trade and don’t trade just because. Trading can be Pandora's Box, and you never know what you will get. If you come to the conclusion that you must trade in order to improve your team, then ask yourself the following questions.
2) Who can I trade without making my team significantly weaker, especially at that position?
3) Do I have back up players to replace the players lost in the trade?
4) Is the player I'm receiving superior to the player I'm trading or replacing?
5) Before you commit to the idea of trading you have to know why you are making the trade. You should go through the pre-trade preparations so when the trade does occur you are ready.
6) After you've completed your pre-trade preparations, you have to enter negotiations. This is the meat of trade strategies. Knowing what to say and not to say is the difference in winning.
7) We will also cover trade research. You have to know as much as possible about the players involved in the deal. You don't want to trade for a guy and find out the next day he was sent to the minors!

To read the entire book visit The Fantasy Baseball Bible

The Top Five Starting Fantasy Pitchers

Come draft day, most owners will have lists out the wazoo, but it’s always important to simply have a top 20+ lists by your side. Most people will recognize the names, but the most important aspect of this list is being able to distinguish who’s the best and why. I’ve outlined my 2008 top 20 fantasy starting-pitchers and why I believe (statistically) it appears that way it does. In this article, I've outlined the top five for you to target on draft day!

Click here for the Top Five Starting Pitchers!

How to Spend Your $260

From Mike Podhorzer of The Fantasy Baseball Generals:

Conventional wisdom and common strategy is to throw out the high priced players early and players you don't want, in order to get the other owners to spend, hopefully leaving you with bargains later. The problem is...you might have your eyes set on a sleeper you expect to nab cheaply in the end game, but this is no guarantee. Similarly, you might have never expected to draft a player, but felt compelled to bid after bidding on him suddenly stopped way below your value, because you did not want to let another team scoop up a bargain. This is called price-enforcing...

Click Here for the full article

The 5X5 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft (Rounds 4-6)

The pitchers and catchers have reported, the temperatures are getting warmer, and the soil is getting softer. It's baseball time in America, which means fantasy fans better get their drafts on. The following is a mock draft conducted according to the settings and eligibilities of a Standard Default Yahoo league. That means 5X5 (runs, homeruns, RBIs, stolen bases, and average for hitters, and wins, ERA, WHIP, K's, and saves for pitchers) The 21 roster positions include: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.

We've already released Rounds 1-3. Here are the next three rounds. The results may surprise you! Click here for Rounds 4-6.

A Compendium of Strategy Articles

Here is a good compendium of some strategy articles, from www.brockforbroglio.com

http://www.brockforbroglio.com/

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Ron Shandler and the Learned Minority Theory

In a recent FSTA auction Ron Shandler drafted Miguel Cabrera with the first overall pick. Here are my thoughts.

Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ fame, in his column on the site, gave us the following nugget:
And, as for Miguel Cabrera with the first selection in Round 1, I'll leave that for you to debate. (The next four picks were Santana, A-Rod, Pujols and Wright.)

Before making my comments, I wanted to mention a theory that I mentioned previously.

Click here to read the full article.

Tune in February 24 at 7pm EST for The Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show!


Join Todd Farino, Patrick Dicaprio, and RC for the first Fantasy Baseball GURUS show on February 24 at 7pm EST. We will be discussing anything and everything about fantasy baseball. If you need draft help, tune in and email us or call us at (646) 716-9203 and have three experts help you with your draft.
join us every week throughout the season for the best no holds-barred fantasy baseball talk.

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert Mock Draft Completed

On February 17, 2008 Fantasy Baseball Search with the help of Mock Draft Central executed a great Mock Draft for all of you to check out.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert Mock Draft

The partipants were:
Derek Carty, The Hardball Times
Geoff Stein from Mock Draft Central
Patrick DiCaprio from Fantasy Baseball Generals
Matt Finkelstein from Fantasy Baseball Generals
Rob Reed from Baseball Geeks
Todd Farino from Fantasy Baseball Search
Troy St. Louis from Rotodoc.com
Sean Sultaire Fantasy Baseball Geeks
RC from Junkyard Jake
Stoney from Stoney’s Lounge
Tony Cincotta from Fantasy Baseball Mafia
AJ Pelletier, The Fantasy Baseball Ebook

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The 5X5 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft (Rounds 1-3)

The pitchers and catchers have reported, the temperatures are getting warmer, and the soil is getting softer. It's baseball time in America, which means fantasy fans better get their drafts on. The following is a mock draft conducted according to the settings and eligibilities of a Standard Default Yahoo league. That means 5X5 (runs, homeruns, RBIs, stolen bases, and average for hitters, and wins, ERA, WHIP, K's, and saves for pitchers) The 21 roster positions include: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.

Check out the results by clicking here.

Radio SHOW: Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show Feb 24 7pm EST!

Please tune in for our first radio show of 2008; The Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show with
Todd "The True GURU" Farino
Patrick "The General" DiCaprio
RC from Junkyardjake.com.

We will be discussing every imaginable fantasy baseball topic under the sun. For our first show we will be discussing draft strategies and giving you the latest updates on the hottest players. To tune in on February 24 at 7pm EST, click below:

The Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show

We'd also love for you to call in with your questions. The call-in number is (646) 716-9203 or you can email us at thegurus@fantasybaseballsearch.com and we will answer your questions on the air!

Thank you,
Todd "The True GURU" Farino

Some Pitchers Doomed for Collapse

Brandon Lyon-Being named the closer recently has shot up his value. Don't go giving him 40 saves just yet. PECOTA is projecting a 4.56 ERA and a 56% chance of collapse; numbers that will definitely make him lose his job. Pena and Qualls are more than capable, and even Juan Cruz could probably make do.

With a 4.9 K rate and a 2.7 BB rate, there is no way Lyon should hold this job all year. It is possible he could have some resurgence of skill, but there is no reason to predict it. Moreover, he had a 4.94 xERA last year versus an actual ERA of 2.68 (!) and a base performance value far below what is expected of a successful closer. Sell, sell, sell and now.
Click Here for the full article.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Is Now Set

Fantasy Baseball Search is throwing its first annual Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. We have assembled 12 of the greatest mines in fantasy baseball for this epic expert match up. Our league will be a standard rotisserie 5x5 mixed league. It will have 12 teams competing for 1 championship. The 12 teams that will compete in our inaugural expert league season are:

Geoff Stein from Mock Draft Central
Patrick DiCaprio from Fantasy Baseball Generals.
Rob Reed from Baseball Geeks
Paul Greco from Melnick And Greco Fantasy Sports
Todd Farino from Fantasy Baseball Search
Troy St. Louis from Rotodoc.com
Sean Sultaire Fantasy Baseball Geeks
RC from Junkyard Jake
Stoney from Stoney’s Lounge
Evan Dickens from Fantasy Baseball Mafia
Dan Cypra from Fantasy Fanatics
Tim Dierkes from Roto Authority

The league commissioner will be Lenny Melnick for Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports.

Keep reading my blog and visit the other sites of this competitive league for more information. The league page is located at:
http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/FBSEL/fantasy_baseball_search_expert_league.asp

As the league takes off that page will fill up with great information about the league including blogs from league members on their 2008 campaign to victory.

If you have any questions about the league email me at
toddf@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Root for your favorite team this year in the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League!







Sunday, February 17, 2008

The Erik Bedard Blockbuster Breakdown

After an extremely long delay, the Baltimore Orioles finally dealt their ace starting pitcher, Erik Bedard, to the Seattle Mariners for a large package of prospects. The trading of “ace” pitchers seems to be the theme of the off-season. First Dan Haren was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks, then Johan Santana was dealt to the New York Mets, and now the Mariners have a nasty 1-2 punch of Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez.

Our resident Fantasy Baseball Expert Ben Berkon examines the trade so managers are well-prepared headed into 2008 fantasy baseball drafts. Click here for the complete breakdown!

Projected Mock Draft Results

Starting LineupRank Draft Pos # Players Team AVG ?Batting Average HR ?Home Runs RBI ?Runs Batted In SB ?Stolen Bases R ?Runs Scored W ?Wins S ?Saves K ?Strikeouts WHIP ?(Walks + Hits) / Innings Pitched ERA ?Earned Run Average Total
1 7 18 Patrick DiCaprio 4.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 7.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 11.0 7.0 75.0
2 9 18 RC Rizza 9.0 6.0 10.0 3.0 6.0 3.0 12.0 4.0 9.0 9.0 71.0
2 10 18 Tony Cincotta 1.0 12.0 7.0 6.0 10.0 12.0 6.0 12.0 3.0 2.0 71.0
2 1 18 Sean Sultaire 5.0 9.0 6.0 7.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 9.0 6.0 8.0 71.0
5 8 18 Geoffrey Stein 7.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 9.0 7.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 70.0
6 6 18 Matt Finkelstein 8.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 8.0 5.0 69.0
7 5 18 Robert Reed 11.0 4.0 9.0 2.0 8.0 2.0 9.0 2.0 7.0 11.0 65.0
7 11 18 Stoney 10.0 7.0 12.0 1.0 11.0 10.0 2.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 65.0
9 3 18 Todd Farino 12.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 11.0 5.0 10.0 10.0 60.0
9 12 18 A.J. 6.0 8.0 3.0 11.0 2.0 6.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 6.0 60.0
11 4 18 Derek Carty 3.0 11.0 8.0 8.0 4.0 5.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 52.0
12 2 18 Troy St. Louis 2.0 10.0 11.0 9.0 12.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 51.0

Friday, February 15, 2008

Late Round Drafting and Risk

Why managing risk is the key consideration in end game picks, and whether an owner should seek high or low variability.

When I write about the concept of value and its lack of vitality, I recognize that I am partly a lone voice railing against the traditional measures of “value” when dealing with the top of the player pyramid. As a result one can easily criticize my theories based on the notion that I am giving owners carte blanche to choose whatever player they want.

In a way that is true. My next column at RotoTimes' premium site will attack the premise that in the later rounds who you pick is important. So not only am I now attacking the hobby's most sacrosanct commandment at the top of the pyramid, I am also attacking it at the bottom.....

Click to read more.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

2008 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

The 2008 Fantasy Sports Trade Association just wrapped up from the Inverness Hotel and Conference Center in beautiful Denver, Colorado. 14 self-proclaimed fantasy baseball experts held a draft for a competitive league during the season. Even with a lot still to be determined for many team's lineup, the draft still served an important purpose.

The managers included representatives from Yahoo, ESPN, Sports Network, SportsBuff, and even the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa.

The league starts C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH, and nine pitchers. Each of the nine pitchers can be either relief pitchers or starting pitchers, so finding a balance is critical. The scoring is a standard 5x5 rotisserie league.

There are six bench spots and no trading is allowed during the season. Instead, free agents are acquired by a bidding process.

Click here to see the results!

CLOSER REPORT: We called our first closer correctly

Last Week Bob Melvin named Brandon Lyons as the Arizona Diamondbacks closer for 2008. A little over a week before that we intordcued our closer report and worte that Brandon Lyons would get the call. Now, we aren't predicting at this point how long he will have the job or how effective he will be, we just did the work and figured he was the best canidate just as Melvin did.

To read our closer report click here

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Bible Book 5 - The Free Agency Battle

Fantasy Baseball Bible Book 5 - The Free Agency Battle

Here is an excerpt from Book 5. To read the entire book visit The Fantasy Baseball Bible

1) From the end of the draft to the last inning of your season, free agency will play a huge role in whether or not your team wins a championship. Nothing you will do can have a bigger impact than the players you will find in free agency.
2) Free agency is a saving grace for most teams. It's where you will look for help and solutions to nearly every kind of problem you will face in fantasy baseball. Problems like injuries, match ups, days off, players just going sour, etc... If there is a problem in fantasy baseball, it can normally be solved in free agency.
3) The first thing you must understand about free agency is that it's a science, not a freebie. Most players that are available in free agency are there for a reason. When a manager decides to go to the "well" he has to know exactly why he's dipping into free agency and he must know exactly what he needs. You cannot compromise on what you need, and if you compromise you may not achieve what you wanted to with free agency.
4) In this book we will cover many of the top strategies associated with free agency and waivers. The first strategy we will cover is how to know what you need.
5) Next, we will cover waivers. We will define what it is and how you should use it.
6) Then, always make sure the player you are cutting is worth the player you are getting.

To read the entire book visit The Fantasy Baseball Bible

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Bible Book 4 - Let The Games Begin

Fantasy Baseball Bible Book 4 - Let The Games Begin

Here is an excerpt from Book 4. To read the entire book visit The Fantasy Baseball Bible

1) The team is now drafted and teams are set. All the pieces are in place for the beginning of your journey towards a championship. I can only promise you two things on this journey. It will be long, and it won’t be easy.
2) Playing fantasy baseball is much like the real sport in the sense that you must grind it out going through highs and lows. Knowing when to make moves, and not just making a move because you are desperate. So many decisions will have to be made once the season starts that the work and thinking done during the draft will pale in comparison.
3) Let's focus on the first month of the season. There are many beliefs about fantasy baseball and how you should start. Some say it's like a marathon, pace yourself. Some say April doesn’t really matter its September that matters. Others and myself agree you need to come out with guns blazin'.
4) Taking the top score for the first month is so fundamentally important that it's often overlooked as a strategy to winning. This book will cover the post-draft stage of the game and then the first 2 months of the season. We will highlight how to play your team and what moves you should make.

To read the entire book visit The Fantasy Baseball Bible

Monday, February 4, 2008

NEW Closer Report Started From The True GURU!

Check out our highly detailed closer report. We will update it as often as necessary and give you the latest information on closers and who the back up closers are.

Check out our initial pre-season report now

CLOSER REPORT

Email us at thetrueguru@fantasybaseballsearch.com with any questions!

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Top 50 2008 Sleepers Posted on Fantasy Baseball Search

Fantasy Baseball Search's own The True GURU Todd Farino has released his top 50 pre-season sleepers for the 2008 MLB season. This list can change once players report to spring training. Checkout who we think could help your team in 2008.

2008 Pre-SeasonTop 50 Sleepers

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