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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

More on The Closer Wars The True GURU Vs Cincotta & Melnick

So yesterday I went on The Fantasy Baseball Mafia radio show and hammered it out with Tony Cincotta concerning closers. Tony, at least on the show was in favor of the Melnick position of not necessarily drafting closers. The way he presented this position was to ask me,
"When was Jose Valverde drafted last year?"
"Where did Joe Borowski get picked?"

He even went on to ask me about JJ Putz. I could tell as these questions were being fired at me that Tony was passionate about his position on this subject, but he threw his expertise and his argument out the door when he decided to attack my position with that kind of evidence.

Here's the deal in this argument and it's almost silly. The Melnick supporters will claim you can get a closer later in the draft or in free agency so why draft early at all?

Now let me clarify my position to make sure it's understood because it's clear Tony Cincotta did not understand my position at all. I believe that there is nothing wrong with taking 1 or 2 closers in the top 11 rounds. Then follow that up in the next 15-16 rounds of the draft by taking 2 more closers. So I certainly support taking closers later in the draft, but the difference is I strongly support the need to get a closer who is stable and has a closer pedigree like a Papelbon or Rivera.

So back to Tony's questions on Valverde, etc... His questions were fluff because of the only question I needed to retaliated with was, "Where was Ryan Braun drafted last year?"

AND BINGO WAS HIS NAME.

You see if you want to take the argument that you can find diamonds in the rough for closing, that's a good strategy and a wise one. You must then also admit that you can find diamonds in the rough for hitting. Last year just to name a few rough diamonds Mike Lowell, Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips, and Curtis Granderson.

Then factor in this argument. This whole debate concerns a 5x5 rotisserie league right? So in a 5x5 rotisserie league there are 5 hitting and 5 pitching categories, so at least according to the general numbers its EVEN amongst the impact hitters and pitchers can have on your total score.

Add one more factor into he argument before we form a solution. The save category is a special one. It is the only category that a single specific player can score in. Only the closer can score a save making the closer a special player because no other player on your team scores in single category like a closer does.

So now we've all established that there are closers and hitters out there late in the draft or in free agency. We also established that in the 5x5 league pitchers are just as important as hitters and that closers carry special value with the saves category.
Then what is the issue here? How can you not look at that and say, "Maybe taking reliable proven closers early isn't so bad." But wait there is more. Let's assume you decide to wait, and as we all know when you get into the later rounds, the draft pick choices get slim. All of a sudden starting pitchers and closers seem to jump out at managers looking for a quick pck before their 60 seconds is up and they start vanishing. So if you though you would pick up 3-4 closers in the last 10 rounds think again, you'll be lucky to get 1.

Then consider free agency, will a big name closer develop? Most likely. Will you get said closer in free agency with your high noon draw in free agency, maybe.

So I guess what the Melnick supporters are saying is, "Let's gamble with our team and hope that not only does a dominating closer emerge, but we get him". Let's gamble by ignoring closers and hoping we can right that ship in free agency. LOL.

Sounds like experts to me! Almost like pitch and ditch, does an expert really do that constantly?

Alright, as most of you know I've been running an expert league this season. It is comprised of 12 experts from the industry including Lenny Melnick's partner Paul Greco. Let's examine an expert league and see how the experts have played the closer war.

Statistical evidence from the expert draft:

Number of expert who draft closers in the first 11 rounds: 12 ( 7 of them in the first 9 rounds)

Number of closers drafted in the first 11 rounds: 19

In this league so far the hottest commodity people are looking for in trades in April are CLOSERS. Guess which player is being traded the least and coveted by each team, closers.

So there you have it. the Melnick point of view can work in a perfect world, but in a league of experts where you won't always be the fastest in free agency or the smartest later in the draft its a rookie move and bad advice at best. Maybe Lenny Melnick plays in leagues where he is the far superior manager and can pull off moves like that. None ofthe leagues I play in would let me dominate in that way.
I firmly believe that the foundation of your team is your bullpen and it provides much more than saves. It shortens the big season-long roto match or even the H2H variety by giving you a huge advantage in saves. Great closers save your WHIP and ERA by throwing 10-20 inning's per week (depending on the size of your bullpen). They also add valuable strikeouts. Most closers get 1-2 per outing. Trust me, getting 10-15 strikeouts per week helps a ton in that category.

So take care of your closers because they are taking care of you.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

The Closer Wars Heat Up: "Us Vs Them"

OK, The first salvos in this battle were fired much earlier in spring training. Now the war rages into the season over the value of a closer in a 5x5 Rotisserie League or any league type for that matter!
Is this mindless over exaggeration of one man's view on this controversy or is it a serious conflict needing to be resolved?

Well, after the first month of the season some of the supporters who comprise "Them" came out on Melnick & Greco's radio show last Wednesday (4/23/08). Lenny Melnick and his partner in crime Paul Greco agreed that not only should you not draft closers in the early rounds 1-6, but you should consider not drafting closers at all? They cited on their show that getting Todd Jones or Joe Borowski in the later rounds and getting good offense in the earlier rounds rather then closers was the better strategy. Even getting a closer like Sherill in free agency is better.
I got two questions for them

1. What if someone else grabs these "raindrop closers" from free agency before you do?
2. Is there no love for offense beyond round 7???

Well The True GURU (That's me) thinks they are spot on WRONG. This couldn't be worse advice and this type of strategy is a death blow to any fantasy team in a rotisserie 5x5 league.

No one could have predicted how closers would have performed to this point before the season started. IF and I say "IF" you were smart and drafted Franky Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Huston Street, or Bobby Jenks as opposed to waiting a little longer and getting Manny Corpas or Jose Valverde would you be better off? Or even waiting longer to get Hoffman, Borowski, or Jones?


Right now, I'd be doing great drafting closers in the early rounds. Being those closers mentioned above (not Corpas or Valverde) average nearly 8 saves each and .5 blown saves. Why has it got stuck in some experts heads and now the average fantasy baseball managers head that they should value offense over pitching and by a large margin in roto 5x5 leagues? The joke in itself is they both account for 5 categories so they should be even at the very least!

In my Humboldt, Nevada opinion, pitching carries just as much power as offense, and RPs or closers are the most important players on your team after 2-3 of your stud offensive players and/or STARTING ACES.

There is ONLY one category SAVES that can be scored by ONLY one type of player the CLOSER. Only relief pitchers can get saves, not Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, or Albert Pujols, just closers a.k.a RPs.
So, having a strong bullpen of the "Us" compared to the later drafted bullpen of the "Them" on the average should score big for the "Us" and will shorten the weekly or yearly match up to 9 categories and put your opponent in the hole to start 0-1. The significant here is in a head-to-head league where your opponent has to take 6 of 9 categories to win the week, while you only have to win 5 of 9. Numerically and statistically that is in your favor, and even in a standard roto league, if you can get a 10 score in saves, that's a huge advantage over the rest of the league.

Also, closers will throw 68-80 innings per year and will impact the other four pitching categories especially when the average starter goes about 175 innings. Maybe?
What about leagues with inning limits? I'd rather have the scoring power of 80 Closer inning's x 5 Closers then to have the scoring power of 5 SP's or mid-level offensive players x 5. Think about it in a league where points per inning mean the difference between winning and losing a championship.

So they will impact the other 4 categories, not wins as much, but without a doubt you are looking at per Closer: 50-80 strikeouts, 1.00-2.40 ERA, and a WHIP around .80-1.12. Yes, that will help quite a bit if you consider the big picture where up to 33% of your innings will come from your bullpen.

Now look at "Them". Say they draft those Closers later who maybe won't get as many saves, who will get cranked often like Jones, Borowski , Corpas, and find someone with less strikeouts. Well, you might have to assume they are at a disadvantage in this area of the team.

Wait a minute, they do have their reasons. "Them" claims getting better offense for the 2 picks you used in rounds 3-6 to get closers is a far superior strategy.

Wow, what about some of the offensive players and starting pitchers available after round 6 or even 7? Mmm lets open the imagination bubble and see who we can visualize...

Josh Willingham is looking good for a 17th round pick, Ellsbury is great for an 11th round pick. How about Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Chris Young, 30 home runs from Brad Hawpe, James Loney, Shane Victorino, Jason Bay, Mike Lowell, Josh Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, Edgar Renteria, Pat Burrell, Willy Taveras, Aaron Hill, Johnny Damon, Kosuke Fukudome , Placido Polanco, Evan Longoria, Orlando Hudson , Joey, Votto, bla bla bla.....

Finally, all the supporters of "Them" will argue "look how good Sherill, Lyon, Soria, B. Wilson, etc... are doing."
Yes, look at how they are doing. Say to yourself wow and pat yourself on the back. After you complete the celebration dance ponder this; Assume for a second that by waiting later in the draft to get closers that you may in fact not get the closers you wanted because other people grabbed them first? That happened to me in the expert league and I ended up with Corpas, Valverde, and Wood. So assume you may not get more then one of the above closers. Then ask yourself this question; Would you want to count on Brandon Lyon or Brain Wilson in September with the championship on the line? Who even knew they'd still be a closer let alone dependableat that time of the year!! Or would you rather have Rivera or KROD knowing you are in ALLSTATE (in good hands).

So the wrap up is, you can be with "Us" sitting pretty dominating saves and probably doing well in pitching and getting offensive stars later in the draft or you can be with "Them" and lose your league.

Guys, the bottomline is fantasy baseball and drafting is a thinking man's game. If you can't say to yourself that a top-notch closer carries the same value as a late 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th round draft pick, well maybe you should reconsider your strategy in order to win. The best experts get the players they have to have in the first 10 rounds of the draft, and then find the diamonds in the last 15 rounds. If the experts who support "Them" expect you to depend on their own advice on drafting closers, then they should know when to take closers over offense in the draft and what valuable offensive stars await them in the later rounds to make up for the offense lost to getting good closers . Only if they are truly "Experts" that is.
Todd "The True GURU" Farino

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Week 4 Report

Check out the Report on week 4 of the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League.

Read about who which players were traded and which players were added or dropped.

Get the details on all 6 matchups!

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Report Issue 3

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Crazy Closers! Report Update

Wow, closers are at it again. Check out the closers report to get the latest update (4/27/2008) on closers:

Closer Report

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Jacob Ellsbury Hits 2 Home Runs, Is a Fantasy Star Yet?

Its still very early, but Jacoby Ellsbury has made quite a splash this season. After all the talk I made of Ellsbury and the beatings I took grabbing him in mock drafts and the disagreements with my co-host Patrick DiCaprio, I've been vindicated.

Currently Ellsbury is batting .294 and in only 51 at bats he has 18 runs and 8 stolen bases. In my past blog about my expectations for Ellsbury I said that he would hit 12 home runs, the range being 10-12. After that blog was posted on Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports I was hammered for my lofty predictions for Ellsbury. Well, its only April 22, but the kid has 3 home runs and 9 RBI to go with his other impressive stats.

So here are some facts that I will give to all the Jacoby Ellsbury non-believers:

1. If he is still in free agency in your league, GET HIM!
2. He's not just a 1 or 2 category player. He can get you average, runs, and a few home runs.
3. He is the start in center field. Whether or not Coco Crisp is ready to play or even on the team, he will simply spell Ellsbury now and then.

This kid is a star, and will be American League rookie of the year.

The True GURU

Monday, April 21, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Weekly Report Vol.1 Iss 2

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Weekly Report
Vol.1 Iss 2
Contributors:
Todd "The True GURU" Farino,
Patrick "The General" DiCaprio
This was a wild week 3 in our expert league. We had very close match ups and some surprises as well. The two match ups of the week went down to the wire and were decided in the last game Sunday evening. Checkout the results of Fantasy Baseball Search Vs. Fantasy Geeks and Fantasy Fanatics Vs. Fantasy Baseball Generals.

Trades this week: Pro Fantasy Games traded Derek Lee and Derek Lowe to Melnick and Greco for Brandon Phillips and Chad Qualls.

Notable Free Agent Pick Ups:
Players Added:
Players Dropped:

RotoDoc.com 5
Melnick And Greco 4
Troy over at Rotodoc.com played his team to near perfection earning a big win this week over Melnick and Greco (M&G). Even know he was over matched offensively he managed to win both runs and stolen bases relying on key speedster Jacoby Ellsbury who had an amazing 9 runs and 4 stolen bases this week. That alone won him both those categories. M&G's power slid this week and only managed 4 home runs, which was a tie, but managed to take both RBI and average with .284. The key batters for M&G were Chris Young and Victor Martinez.
On the pitching side Rotodoc pulled out a 3-2 victory taking saves, WHIP and ERA. He had an outstanding week from Jonathan Papelbon with 3 saves along with Huston Street coming out with 2 saves. His starters also performed well with Haren and Ervin Santana notching 3 wins. IN the end it wasn't good enough to stop Paul Greco and his "Pitch and Ditch" strategy who got 6 wins and 37 strikeouts to take those categories. Paul managed to get 6 wins from six different picture's. Felix Hernandez was a star in this one get 8 K's and a 1.00 ERA in his win.

Overall this match up was very tight and could have gone both ways. Rotodoc held off Melnick and Greco's furious pitching attack and still grabbed 3 categories and would have swept the categories if it wasn't for Paul pitcher streaming. Good job to both of you.



Fantasy Baseball Search 6
Baseball Geeks 4

This was one of if not the best match up of the week. It literally went down to the wire to decide if the game would be 5-5 or 6-4. Everything depended on Brad Lidge coming out for his save Sunday night. If he gives up 1 or less hits, Fantasy Geeks wins WHIP, if he gives up 2 or more hits/walks Fantasy Baseball Search retains WHIP. He did give up a walk and a hit. Even know FBS only won 3 offensive categories, he had his best offensive output for the week and ended up crushing his opponent in home runs hitting 14. His offense was led by Chipper Jones and his 4 home runs and .565 batting average. Hanley Ramirez and Josh Willingham also had a great week for me. On the flip side Fantasy Geeks won batting average big with a team average of .335 and also narrowly won runs 43-40. Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, G. Soto, and Tori Hunter led the way for the Fantasy Geeks.

On the pitching side it was much the same, but much different. Both fantasy owners replied on pitcher streaming to round out their rotations, and the mistake proved to be costly for Fantasy Baseball Search and ended up losing me ERA. FBS easily won saves, but after that nothing was an easy win. I pulled out WHIP 1.43 to Rob's 1.44. Just as close was my 2-1 Wins victory. My pitching staff was guided by great starts from Fausto Carmona and Oliver Perez. Kerry Wood chipped in two perfect innings and a save to notch the WHIP category.


Fantasy Geeks threw 6 starting pitchers and only managed 1 win from a great performance from John Smoltz. Smoltz and Harang combined for 24 of his 49 strikeouts as he easily won that category 49-30. He also took ERA thanks to a rogue and stupid start of Braden Looper by Fantasy Baseball Search. Overall this was an extremely close match up that came down to quick and smart manager moves. Rob made the better moves late, but Todd's smart play early forced Rob's hand into desperation.

Fantasy Baseball Geeks 7
Pro Fantasy Games
3


Enter Pro Fantasy Games. In his first match up taking over on Tuesday for the junkie Stoney's Lounge he got slammed by the surging Sean Sultaire of Fantasy Baseball Geeks. FGB's lost two close categories in home runs and RBIs along with average. After that he did not look back. winning runs and stolen bases. Pro Fantasy Games out slugged him with the help of Derek Lee and Alex Rodriguez. FBG's ripped stolen bases 7-1 led by Jose Reyes and Carlos Gomez.

Pitching was a shutout for Fantasy Baseball Geeks 5-0. He clearly dominated all 5 categories and did it with stellar pitching from Rich Hill, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Adam Wainwright. Also, Billy Wagner and Frank Rodriguez saves an astonishing 7 games that week between them! Pro Fantasy Games pitching struggles and managed only 2 wins and 3 saves. Todd Jones was effective this week, but Clay Buckholz and Derek Lowe were awful. This was a match that Sean Sultaire held from the beginning and never relinquished.


Roto Authority 6
Fantasy Baseball Mafia
3


The luster is clearly off the FBM squad as my number one overall team gives them a licking. Facing the specter of a rout this week, Evan Dickens decides to leave the Wiretap radio show in order to prepare for his eventual demise in week 4. So far RotoAuthority is the best team in the league.


Brian Bannister and George Sherrill were the culprits this week in the FBM loss. Bannister had a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP as he comes crashing back to earth after a hot start. Sherrill was even worse with a 16.875 ERA and a 2.625 WHIP. SHerrill has traditionally had problems with right handed hitters, aside form a fortunate 2007 with a mere 76 righty batters faced, so it is possible that his tenure could be short lived. This would spell fantasy disaster for the FBM squad, who this week face the Powerhouse Fantasy Baseball Generals team.

RotoAuthority is right now the class of the league, facing the top notch competition of the East division with aplomb. They were one homerun and two RBI away from a complete rout of the team touted by RC Rizza and Todd Farino as the best team in the league.

Mock Draft Central 6
Junkyard Jake
4



Despite his well reasoned pleas and the fact that MDC's logo is a giant pear, RC's entreaties lead only to a moral victory. MDC is looking very tough so far as their top starter and speed strategy has vaulted them to second place in the tough division. RC's team puts up a very fine showing, and helps out the rest of the teams in the Major League division as he keeps Mock Draft Central in everyone's sights.


Still this was a solid showing and wake up call for the Junkyard Jake squad, as they faced one of the Titans of the league with a strong showing. In many weeks Jake would have routed his opponent, he just happened to run into a tough matchup. Jake's plucky squad even beat the vaunted speedsters of MDC 8-7 in steals, with even Conor Jackson pitching in to help the cause. This could have been an 8-2 victory against many other teams.


MDC's pitching heavy strategy is looking very strong so far, as even John Danks, Jair Jurrjens and Cliff Lee, all of whom were waiver bait in the preseason have turned in shining performances under Geoff Stein's leadership. Who knows if it will continue, but MDC has the horses at the top of the rotation to be a contender every week.

Fantasy Baseball Generals 5
Fantasy Fanatics 4


Thanks to Chase Utley and a two homer game, the Generals eke out a victory in the Major League division. Said Utley, "I am tired of hearing my owner made fun of by Todd "Boston Rob" Farino." The Fanatics offense wakes up and gets 4 HR from Manny Ramirez, as the Generals' reliever strategy flops again.


This was a hard fought matchup all week with both teams struggling for ground all week. Despite getting a promotion to the closer's job, Generals' wunderkind Rafael Betancourt is facing some bad luck so far, with a 38% hit rate that will go down henceforth. More leaks are apparent with Takashi Saito having a very rough week with a 13.5 ERA and a 2.5 WHIP. Saito is fine skills wise though with a 2.84 xERA and is beset by a 50% strand rate. So it looks like the Generals are primed for a rebound in the luck department in the near future.

The Fanatics are off to a slow start at 8-19 but they are looking to rebound soon. They were hurt by Mark Buehrle, about whom all should be concerned, and by Chien Ming Wang who just ran into a buzzsaw this week. Buehrle has an xERA of 5.18 and is within normal limits in strand rate so it could be a long season for him. One analyst even predicted Buehrle to have an ERA close to 5.00 this year.


Overall this was a close week for most teams and it doesn't get any easier this week.



Sunday, April 20, 2008

Beyond the Boxscore--Fantasy MLB News and Notes 4/20/08 Hochevar, Big Papi, Dodgers Outfield, Injury Report, and more

Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez left the game today with a quadricps injury. He said he felt it in his swing, and then as he ran down the baseline, he felt a "twinge." Rodriguez has been an incredibly durable player throughout his career, so it is tough to gauge how long this might keep him out of action. Complicating matters further, his wife is about to give birth to a child which would most likely keep him out of action a couple of days. Although there has been no definite reports, it would surprise me to see A-Rod miss a few games as a precaution while he visits that classy wife of his in the hospital. She will be a very good mother, who doesn't need a mother who would wear a shirt that said f#!k you across the back? Remember that last year? Disgusting.

The big news of the day was the promotion in Kansas City of SP Luke Hochevar. Fighting Chance Fantasy was all over the breaking news, giving you a crack at adding him to your roster before your competition got to him. I was very excited about his potential, and picked him up in three different leagues. And then he got shelled. Hochevar cruised for 3.2 innings, before getting in trouble with two out in the fourth, when a 1-1 game quickly turned into a 5-1 game. That is the other problem with young pitchers, if they don’t walk everybody, they are prone to the big inning. However, I'm not coming off the bandwagon just yet. Hochevar will start again Friday against the Indians, and let’s hope for better results.

Is Jed Lowrie going to stick with the Red Sox in this callup? The answer is most likely no, but he certainly is making a strong case for himself. Lowrie hit two doubles today and drove in his fifth run in just his third major league game. He is now batting .417 and even if he doesn't stick around this time, he is certainly putting the pressure on Julio Lugo to perform this year.

David Ortiz has raised his batting average 49 points in the last three days. Big Papi also drove in a run for the third consecutive day, as he looks like he is batting his way out of this season beginning funk. Even though it was a weak homer, that grand slam Friday night was just what the doctor ordered. Ortiz was 2-4 on Sunday, and should be back on track to put up gaudy fantasy numbers again in 2008.

He has been pegged as a problem child, but Marlins' hurler Scott Olsen is off to a flying start. Olsen improved to 3-0 after allowing just one run over seven innings with three strikeouts. The potential has always been there, but it has been his attitude that has gotten him in trouble in previous years. Olsen could be quite the sleeper if he can keep up this type of production, and should find his way on to a roster in your league after today’s performance.

Four guys hit two home runs today around the majors. In Philly, Mr. Super-Awesome Chase Utley continued his barrage of statistics going deep in the first, and again in the fifth. He is now batting .342, took over the ML HR league lead with his eighth, and has 17 RBI. Not much more you can say, he is one of the best. Hanley Ramirez further proved he was worthy of that high draft pick, as he hit his fourth and fifth homers of the season. After stealing three bases in the last two days, Ramirez decided to flex his muscles on Sunday. He has now driven in 14 runs, and is hitting .366. Hanley does it all, and is proving himself as one of the top two or three guys in fantasy baseball at age 24. After committing an error that put his team behind, Edwin Encarnacion knew he had to make up for it with his bat. Edwin did just that as he started the rally against Eric Gagne that would give the Reds the win in 10 innings. Encarnacion also hit one in the fifth inning to bring his season total to four. He has been a little bit of a disappointment to fantasy owners who thought he might break out this year, perhaps this will be a starting point to an improvement in his production. The Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit finishes this group of double tater guys. He still isn’t seeing everyday at bats over Ronny Paulino, but is making his case for that. With his two solo shots today, Doumit is now hitting .320 to Paulino’s .240, but it is Paulino's defense that continues to keep him in the lineup. Monitor this situation if you have a crappy catcher. Doumit has some offensive potential, so if he starts playing everyday, he is worth a look.

The Dodgers outfield situation is probably the most frustrating situation in fantasy baseball in 2008. Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Andre Eithier, and Juan Pierre all want to play everyday, however this isn’t beer league softball, there is no shortfielder. The funny thing is, the one guy who is struggling the most, Jones, is the one who almost never sits. But I suppose a $100 million contract will help your PT. The other three are all hitting over .280, while Jones flounders at .169. Let us all thank Scott Boras for negotiating another huge contract for a guy who just doesn’t produce like he should. If you own one of these four guys, you have to hold on to them, they all have too much potential to be cut. This isn't the holy thing to do, but all you can do is root for an injury to one of the other guys who aren’t on your team.

Injury News

Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins has hit the DL for the first time in his career. A day after actually getting an at bat in a game, Rollins and the Phillies decided that they needed to sit him for two weeks, and bring up someone that they knew would be able to play. Rollins was having a good start to the season, and this is a blow to his fantasy owners. All you can do is wait two weeks, and plug him back into your lineup then. For those who don’t own him, is he available cheap in your league?

It was a bad day for quad injuries. Similar to A-Rod, Chipper Jones left Sunday’s game with the same injury as he tried to leg out a double. Apparently Larry injured the quad on April 9th and has been playing with some pain. Bobby Cox was quoted as saying that he is questionable for Monday night, but it isn't something that will keep him out for long. Those of you with daily transactions might want to bench him Monday, and then see what happens from there.

Now to the good news on the injury front. Brewers stud pitcher Yovani Gallardo was great in his first start off the DL. Gallardo went seven, gave up just one run and fanned four. Unfortunately, his team couldn't score for him today, so he ended up with a no decision, but this was a good reward for his owners that were patient as they waited for him to come off the DL. Put him back on your active roster immediately, and expect big things from Yovani in 2008.

Rays hurler Matt Garza pitched a minor league game today and was pronounced ready to rejoin the rotation. Garza gave up four runs and eight hits in just 3.2 innings, but manager Joe Madden said he would pitch Friday against the Red Sox. He wasn't off to a good start before the injury, so be cautious on expecting too much from him right away. If he is truly healthy, he could make an impact for the rest of the season.

Astros 2B Kaz Matsui returned to the lineup over the weekend, and if you are in desperate need of middle infield, he could be a good option. After batting near .300 and stealing 30+ bases in just over 100 games in 2007, Matsui might not run as much for Houston, but that tiny ballpark means his power numbers could be a little better.

Further away is Cardinals pitcher Mark Mulder. Mulder threw six shutout innings for the Cardinals AA affiliate, and is supposed to make his third rehab start on Friday. Tony LaRussa has said Mulder will need two more starts before he can prove that he is ready to rejoin the rotation. Mulder is so far away from the time in his career when he was effective, I don't know how much you can expect from him. But if these two surgeries finally fixed whatever has been ailing him for the last few years, maybe he can return to the pitcher he once was.

Although it wasn't due to injury, Joba Chamberlain returned to the Yankees bullpen today after tending to his ailing father. Joba didn't retire a batter, gave up two hits and a run. He has been incredibly effective again this season, and as long as he is right mentally, he should continue to be an effective 8th inning guy, before he gets placed into the rotation at some point in 2008.

Quick Hitters

One day after he trashed the organization, Frank Thomas and the Blue Jays came to a "mutual agreement" to part ways, and the Big Hurt was cut. If you have the roster room, it is ok to stash him, I'm sure some team will scoop him up as their DH. But if you have a shallow roster, it is time to cut him loose.

The best pitcher that gets no fantasy love, Aaron Harang was incredible again. Harang gave up just one run over eight innings, and fanned eight. He gets blown up every fifth or sixth start, but the other outings Harang is just awesome. A low ERA, high strikeouts, and now that the Reds are supposed to start to compete, maybe he can top 15 wins.

Yanks bulldog Andy Pettitte threw a gem on Sunday as he threw seven shutout innings and whiffed five. Considering his rocky offseason, it is more incredible that Pettitte hasn't allowed more than three runs in any start. Continue to ride Pettitte's great start, as he should continue to produce as he has for the last 10 years.

Young starter John Danks has had a great start to the season. Outside of one complete stinker, Danks hasn't allowed more than one run in three of his four starts. Danks threw seven innings of one run ball, fanning eight. Once a member of the Rangers' DVD trio of pitching prospects, it appears that the change in scenery is what Danks needed. If you need a starter, Danks should be available in your league.

Another young starter, Jair Jurrjens has been a great surprise for the Braves. Jurrjens went seven and struck out eight as he shut down the Dodgers. He has given up two runs or less in three of his four starts and has struck out a decent number of batters as well. Keep an eye on this guy, and if he has one more good start, he is worthy of a roster spot.

A final great appearance by a young pitcher, Dana Eveland continues to surprise and is now sitting at 2-1 with a sub 2.00 ERA. Eveland is still walking guys a little more than you would like to see, but he has been incredibly effective, and if he is still available, see if you can find a spot for him.

If John Bowker could play the Cardinals everyday, and get regular at-bats, he could be the next Albert Pujols. Bowker his his third homer of the season on Sunday, all against St. Louis, and has made the most of the playing time that has been given to him. I don't think he is worth an add until he gets everyday at-bats.

Visit fightingchancefantasy.wordpress.com for a Beyond the Boxscore article everyday.

As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Who's Close To Being Relieved?

The Fantasy Sports Forum.com
Every season we see plenty of closers who start the season in that role, but don't finish there. The start of this season will be no different and the clock is already ticking on several closers in the NL who do not have a very firm hold on their job. Since the closer position is probably the most scrutinized, it's natural that this topic would lead to a poll, suggested by an owner in one of my leagues, Pat Vitale. So from a poll, a roundtable debate was created.
Question:Which closer will be the first to lose his job?
Choices:Trevor Hoffman, Kerry Wood, Eric Gagne, Takashi Saito, or Brandon Lyon.

Read the debate at: http://www.thefantasysportsforum.com/article.php?ID=259

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Chone Figgins Playing Like a #2/3 Round Draft Pick

Hey, on The Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show it was discussed that we projected Chone Figgins to have the kind of season, that by the end of it he would be ranked as a #2 or #3 pick. Instead of the 5th or 6th round he's been going in.

So far Figgins is off to a great start with a .393 batting average. He has 24 hits in 61 at bats, but what is more impressive are his 7 stolen bases. He has added 9 runs and 3 RBI, which neither are impressive enough to warrant comment, but Figgins is proving that not only can he dominate 2 categories, but he can make a run at runs. Get it? Run at runs.

Obviously, we think his average will come down, but his stolen bases will remain high and we project him to exceed our SB projections of 55 and now we see him hitting 60. The sky is the limit for this guy. He is playing with relatively no pressure on him in a fun town and on a fun team. Its not like Reyes and the Mets where the pressure on Reyes is extreme.

Comparing Reyes, who has been slowed by a hamstring injury is batting .292 with 1 home run, 1 stolen base, 7 RBI and 7 runs. Not to shabby, but certainly not #1 pick material. I was listening to our friend Tony Cincotta over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia and he brought up the same type of questions I brought up in spring training. If you remove stolen bases from Reyes is he just ans ordinary player? Good question Tony. We think he will get his bases in due time, but anyone ad everyone who gave up a second or third round pick for that guy with Hanley Ramirez waiting, and Figgins down in round 5 must be breaking their hands on walls in the Cardinals dugout right now.

Get Figgins while you can.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Weekly Report Vol.1 Iss 1

Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Weekly Report
Vol.1 Iss 1


Contributors:
Todd "The True GURU" Farino


This was a very exciting week in the FBSEL (Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League). Not only did we have our first trade in league history, but we had a very nice upset on one of the favorites to win it all. Add to that some nice comebacks for teams that started slow in week 1.

First Trade Between Melnick & Greco and Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Sean from Fantasy Baseball Geeks gave up Carlos Lee andChad Qualls for Melnick and Greco's Josh Hamilton and D. Matuzaka .

Notable Free Agent Pick Ups:
Players Added: Dana Eveland, Jason Kendell, Jorge Cantu, Matt Garza, Cliff Lee, Edgar Gonzalez, Wandy Rodirguez, Randy Wolf, Joe Crede Peter Moylan, Jonny Gomes, Joe Saunders, and Derrick Turnbow.

Players Dropped: Scott Rolen, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Gary Matthews, Ramon Hernandez, Austin Kearns, Justin Speiers, Kazuo Fukumori, Chris Snyder, Barry Bonds, and Andrew Miller.


Melnick And Greco 4
Stoney's Lounge 4
Melnick and Greco squared off against the hot Stoney's lounge. Both teams came in with big week 1 wins and they settled for a tie at 4 a piece. This match wasn't much for competition this week. To start the average category was won my Stoney's Lounge by less than .002 points, but sadly he won with a team batting average of .2265. That shows you how bad the teams performed at least from an offensive stand point when the team winning batting average is that low. Melnick and Greco's team despite a combined .225 average did pound out 8 home runs led by Bill Hall hitting 3 home runs out of the 4 hits he had. Chris Young and Brandan Phillips also added in solid performances. Stoney had a much better week from an offensive standpoint with great performances from Vernon Wells, Hideki Matsui, Derek Lee, but he also had some terrible plays like Freddy Sanchez batting .091, Alex Rodriguez .207, and Troy Tulowitzki .111. Since both teams had bad weeks offensively, the key offensive category in this game was stolen bases and Melnick and Greco took that easily 4 to 1 and with that outscored Stoney's 3-2 in the offensive categories. Pitching was much better for both these teams and much more even. Both team respectable WHIP's and ERA's, and strikeouts. Stoney's recorded an impressive 61 strikeouts this week to M&G's 45. Overall Stoney's took pitching 2-1 with ties in saves and wins. The key to Stoney's pitching wins were Cole Hamels, Derek Lowe, and Jason Isringhausen. M&G had solid success with its pitching with a great week from Brian Wilson, but his itching to grab new starting pitcher over and over again hurt him this week and cost him at least 1 loss.

A side note to this match up, Paul Greco trading Josh Hamilton and Daisuke Matsuzaka cost him 1 win and 1 tie this week. He was only without the players one day, but if he had kept them that one day instead of 4-4-2 he would have been 5-3-2.


Fantasy Baseball Search 6
Fantasy Baseball Geeks 3
This was a very tight match up and several categories went down to the wire including home runs, WHIP, and ERA. In a last ditch effort to garner some wins Fantasy Baseball Geeks (FBG) got a late home run from Garrett Atkins to pull a tie in that category, but newly acquired Daisuke Matsuzaka failed to lower his team WHIP or ERA and in the end went down 6-3-1. Fantasy Baseball Search (FBS) by the hot bat of James Loney and his .391 batting average and 2 home runs. Hanley Ramirez also broke out with an outstanding week. While Chipper Jones and Akinori Iwamura provided more offensive help several players did not including Kelly Johnson, Matt Diaz, and Carlos Beltran. Those performances made it possible for FBS to win batting average and runs. FBG's also had some outstanding offensive performances from Adrian Gonzalez, Jeremy Hermida, Nate McLouth, and Garret Atkins that led him to win RBI and Stolen bases. The end result was a 2-2-1 split on offense.
Pitching was a disaster for both teams across the board. FBS's bullpen was raped and the stand outs were Jose Valverde and Jeremy Accardo. On the flip-side FBG's lost KROD most of the week and his two appearances were forgettable. In the end The True GURU took pitching 4-1.


Mock Draft Central 7
Fantasy Baseball Generals
3
This was not only the best match up of the week, but it was also one of the most hotly contested. In the end Mock Draft Central (MDC) dominated Fantasy Baseball Generals (FBG) with a 7-3 win, but the inside story is what is interesting. The battle here was the top starting pitching staff in the league vs. the best bullpen. The winner this week was the starting staff of MDC. Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb led the way and carried the load for Johan Santana who had a tough week. He also recorded 5 saves with Joakim Soria, Eric Gagne, and Kevin Gregg. FBG's team did dominate ERA and WHIP as expected with a well pitched bullpen, but in the end no saves for Rivera, Soriano (15-DL) or Saito. The end result in pitching was a 3-2 win for MDC. On the offensive side the tough times continued for Patrick and the FBG's squad even know they performed well. He squad was led by Carlso Pena and 4 home runs. Aramis Ramirez and Mike Jacobs had good performances. In the end the offese belonged to MDC with Brain McCann, Paul Konerko, Aaron Hill, and our main man Chone Figgins with his 4 stolen bases. In the end MDC won offense 4-1. A great match up for the ages.


Fantasy Baseball Mafia 8
Fantasy Fanatics
2

Fantasy Baseball Mafia (FBM) did not disappoint after a tough week 1. Evan Dickens came out with guns blazin' in week two against the slow starting Fantasy Fanatics. The great thing about Evans dominating win this week was he did it with only 1 home run between Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. The Brewer combo also combined for 5 hits in 48 at bats. Jason Bay had a breakout week with 3 home runs and a .381 average. Miguel Tejada got into the act as well for FBM with a .429 batting average and 5 RBI. FF tried to match up offensively with great performances from Eric Byrnes, Dan Uggla, and Manny Ramirez, but in the end FBM took offense 4-1 only losing average if you can believe it. Pitching was about the same and dominated by FBM. He recorded 5 saves and 5 wins nailing down those two categories. Joe Nathan, George Sherrill led the way on saves and Brain Bannister scored Evan 2 wins in one week. On the flip-side Dan got solid pitching out of Josh Beckett and Roy Halladay, but his weak bullpen caved in and only got him 3 saves, 2 from Trevor Hoffman. When the dust settled Fantasy Fanatics was only able to pull out WHIP and lose 4-1 in pitching.


Roto Authority 8
Junkyard Jake
2

Roto Authority just simply has a great team. He's in first place in the very tough East Division at 14-4-2. He easily dispatched Junkyard Jake's team and most likely would have any team he faced. With a team batting average of .3oo Tim's team pulled out 8 home runs, 43 runs, and 8 stolen bases. His only weakness on offense was RBI (28) and that was the category Junkyard Jake (JJ) was able to win. Roto Authority (RA) won thanks to Lance Berkman, David Wright, and Rafeal Furcal. RC is still reeling right now, but had outstanding performances from Matt Holiday and Nick Markakis. Grady Sizemore is coming around and when those three are hot together they can carry a offense. For this week, he lost 4-1. On the pitching side, same story for RA. He won every category, but WHIP and that was lost by only .03 points. He put together 8 wins and while only recording 3 saves it was enough. Greg Maddux and Javier Vasquez were great for him this week. For RC, not much to report on pitching Carlos Ambrano let him down along with the rest of his staff. Credit has to be given for the fact that is staff kept it close. This team could very well be a sleeping giant. WAKE UP ALREADY!



Rotodoc 8
Baseball Geeks 2
Rotodoc came back strong after a close loss lat week and laid into Rob over at Baseball Geeks. Rotodoc just exploded this week getting 9 of his 14 home runs (not a typo) from Pujols, Peralta and Burrell. Even Ricky Weeks added in 2 dingers. Baseball Geeks (BG) tried to keep up, but lost with 13 home runs! Mark Renyolds, Tori Hunter, and Orlando Hudson provided 7 of them. In the end FB was only able to win runs and lost 4-1 in the offensive categories. On the pitching side it was much tighter and almost unfair to Rob. Rotodoc had masterful performances from Dan Haren (2 wins), Ben Sheets, and 3 saves from Houston Street. Rob countered with John Smoltz and Aaron Harang, but in the end Chad Billingsley may have lost several categories for him going 0-2 with a 6+ ERA and a 1.9+ WHIP. That killed him. The end result, 4-1 win for Rotodoc with Rob winning only strikouts. That is a tough way to lose when his team played so well.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Get Your Gagne Insurance

Get Your Gagne Insurance
The Fantasy Sports Forum.com
We're only into the second week of the season, but fantasy owners who drafted Eric Gagne are starting to worry that their investment is in jeapordy. So what do you to when you want to protect your investment? You buy insurance. In this case, the insurance policy goes by two names - David Riske and Derrick Turnbow, two former closers who are currently pitching in setup roles for the Brewers, but are also waiting in the wings if Gagne reverts to the player who got rocked in almost every outing with Boston last season. He has already blown two saves so far this season, so the grumblings about him heading toward another implosion are not unwarranted. There have been reports from Milwaukee that the velocity on his fastball has been hovering in the high eighties. That is in stark contrast to the player who was once a dominant closer for the Dodgers and humming fastballs by hitters at close to 100 mph. Here is the 2008 statistical look at all three pitchers:

Read the rest article at: http://thefantasysportsforum.com/article.php?ID=255

Thursday, April 10, 2008

CLOSERS Start Terrible in 2008. Watch For New Blood

Closers have been awful to start the 2008 season. That's not to say that they won't improve, but you have to pay attention to the sheer volume of blown saves and earned runs given up by closers. Here is a number for you to ponder. 56 for 67. That is the number of blown saves in the first 13 days of April from the top 20 closers in MLB. There is another 8 blown saves if I include Putz, Valverde, Rauch, etc... That doesn't even spell out the other problems that closers are having. Many of those blown saves are the 3-run variety. 9 of the top 20 closers actaully have an ERA over 6.00 and that includes Hoffman, Street, F. Rodriguez, Wood, and everyones favorite Joe Borowski. Now I know ERA's can get bloated early, but it will make any fantasy owner very nervous.

As each season starts and goes through it's regular cycles certain undeniable truths will emerge within the numbers. Like shortstops are hitting for power in 2007. Maybe the year develops into a great year for pitching and not so good for power. So far this season is developing bad for closers. Its something to keep an eye on because if it stays the same there very well could be allot of shake ups and allot of new or risky closers. This season opened with many new closers and most of them fantasy owners are wary of like Gagne, Soria, Sherrill, B. Wilson, CJ Wilson, Wood, Lyon, Lidge, and more. That is why I think the number of blown saves is a high so far this season, but I also think that when you have a new crop of closers and another crop of ones you are unsure of its going to take some time for them to pitch and when the dust settles see who the true closers are. If you have some of the greats like Rivera, Papelbon, Nathan, or Putz you should be OK.

On a positive note there have been some surprises outstanding performances by some inexperienced closers:
George Sherrill 4/4 saves
Joakim Soria 4/4 saves
C.J. Wilson 4/4 saves

Other notable strong starting closers in 2008
Jason Isringhausen 5/5 saves
Bobbie Jenks 4/4 saves

So if you have some good closers our recommendation is to hold onto them. You will start seeing trade offers coming in. Those are skilled managers trying to buy low when they know those closers will develop back to there game saving form. Especially in the leagues where closers are valuable you must hold onto them. Now if you have some of the more undeveloped closers whose value is high right now especially in leagues where closers are valuable we'd recommend trading them at a peak value. If you can get a great player for C.J. Wilson or Joakim Soria right now TAKE IT!. Those closers our bound to have some bad days and as the better teams improve they are also bound to see less saving opprotunities. Keep an eye on our closer report for more news on closers.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Studs and Duds For Week 1 Of The Season GURU Style!

OK, its only one week, but lets see some of the guys that really stood out after today.


STUDS

Kerry Wood - I think he was a stud because not only was he a somewhat surprise closer, but he came back strong after a bad start. 3 saves, a 1.00 WHIP, and 4K in 4 innings. Erase the one none save 3 run inning and he looks incredible.

Chone Figgins - You'll hear his name allot this year from me. Batting over .400 with 3 SBs, and 4 runs.

Chipper Jones - Great Start for this veteran player. A .400 batting average, 7 RBI, and a homerun to tote.

Jeremy Accardo - Great start for this stellar closer. 0.00 ERA and three saves in the week.

Xavier Nady - Try 3 home runs, 9 RBI, and a.384 batting average. I don't know how long it will last, but get him while he's hot.

J.D. Drew - A surprise start for Drew. He's got 2 Home runs, 4 RBI, and a .375 average in only 16 at bats.

Nate McLouth- This guy has had an amazing start to the season. He has 11 hits, .440 average, 4 RBI, 3 runs, and 2 SB. Roto leagues are loving him.

Rick Ankiel - This guy is proving how good he really is with every swing. In his first 27 at bats he has 3 home runs, 6 RBI, and 5 runs.

Chris Young - How this guy fell to the 8th round I do not know. Try 4 Home runs, 6 RBI, and 9 runs. Toss in 2 SBs and the .240 batting average doesn't look so bad.

Johnny Cueto - 7 innings, 1.28 ERA and 10Ks. Nice...

DUDS


Adam Dunn - .145 batting average and 2 RBI. Worthless so for and not a favorite at all of The True GURU.

Matt Holiday - .192 and 2 home runs isn't what a #1 draft pick should be doing at this point. We all know he will improve.

C.C. Sabathia - A nightmare start for the Cy Young winner. 7.60 ERA and a WHIP at 1.78. He does have 9Ks in 10 innings, but ZERO wins.

Jose Reyes - Only 5 hits, and no stolen bases. Making Figgins look really good right now.

Jose Valverde - Started very slow. He did collect a save and a win, but blew a 3-run save and has a ERA to high to speak of.

Hunter Pence - Allot of guys have big dreams for this young man, but he has started very slow. Batting .171 with little production.

Edwin Encarnacion - Miserable start for this guy. .125 batting average with 1 home run and 3 RBI. Not the start we were expecting.


Those are your studs and duds for week 1 in this 2008 MLB season.

FSB Expert League Week 1 Review

The 2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League had its share of surprises in week 1. Lets review the match ups.

Melnick And Greco 8
Fantasy Baseball Geeks 1

This was a shocker to say the least. Not that I think Melnick and Greco is bad, but a dominating win was not expected. M&G won with some surprising, but great play from Ryan Garko and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Chris young was brilliant for him and the league letting this guy slip to the 8th round for M&G might prove to be a big mistake. They also got outstanding pitching from Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez, but the bullpen lagged behind with only 1 save.
FB Geeks had an outstanding performance from Nate McLouth and solid performances from Carlso Gomez and Carlos Lee. The rest of his offense struggled for a .275 batting average. His pitching was aweful, but his only win came in the save category taking it 3-1.

Fantasy Baseball Mafia 5
Mock Draft Central 5
This game went just as I predicted only I was thinking that MDC could sweep all the pitching categories and take stolen bases. Well, MDC did get stolen bases, but only got 4 of the 5 pitching categories losing saves to The Mafia 7-4. All the offensive categories were close, but Mafia dominated average and in the end that is what kept MDC from geting a 6-4 or even 7-3 victory. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Jeff Francoeur were outstanding for FB Mafia, while MDC had great performances from Chone Figgins, Jake Peavy and Santana.

Fantasy Baseball Search 5
Rotodoc 4
In a tightly fought contest, FBS narrowly escaped with a 5-4 in part thanks to his bullpen. Winning the saves category proved to be the deciding factor with FBS's offense struggling in week 1. I won the saves category 8-3. Rotodoc got power support from JD Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury as they helped power him the HR win 7-6! pitching on both sides was fairly good, but Ben Sheets complete game stands out for Rotodoc.


Fantasy Baseball Generals 7
Junkyard Jake 2
Dominating performance by the Generals. He did exactly what he said he'd do winning the 3 pitching categories and actually tied in wins saving him from another loss. He absolutely dominated the offensive categories only losing stolen bases and winning home runs 10-3. Junkyard Jake suffered with a terrible offensive showing in week 1. He had six players battling under .220. Chase Utley was absolutely dominating for the Generals.

Roto Authority 6
Fantasy Fanatics 2
A great week for RA. They have one of the toughest teams in the league and showed it week 1. They're offense dominated going 4-0 with 1 tie in home runs. On the pitching side he only got 2 categoires, but tied in 1 finishing 2-2. FF shows great play in power and pitching. his bullpen held its own, but in the end his starting staff , which is very strong lost it for him. We expect both teams to play much better as the season goes forward.

Stoney's Lounge 8
Baseball Geeks 2
No ties in this MAJOR upset. Stoney's team played very well and hit 14 home runs. The Geeks played well too, but just couldn't keep up with Stoney's power streak. The only categories Geeks pulled out was runs and stolen bases. Stoney dominated pitching going 5-0 with an ERA at 2.56. Both bullpens were weak in this one, but this is a weak for Stoney to celebrate.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Sell C.C. Sabathia?


I'm not one to overreact to slow starts and consider myself one of the most patient owners one can be, sometimes to my detriment. I don't own Sabathia in any leagues, so my opinion is unbiased. I also projected him for similar stats as everyone else, so my expectations weren't any higher/lower than the consensus. With that said, here are my thoughts on him...

Sabathia's first 2 starts would concern me if I were an owner, or someone maybe looking to buy low, if that could even be accomplished after only 2 starts. Of course the usual caveat applies, that it's only been 2 starts. But what's scary is the 4 walks in 5 1/3 innings today, which followed 3 walks in 5 1/3 innings in his first start, leaving him with 7 walks in 10 2/3 innings on the season. This follows a wild 2007 postseason where he walked 13 batters in just 15 1/3 innings. He did only walk 4 batters in 22 spring innings, for whatever that's worth. But this is a guy who only walked 1.4 batters per 9 innings last year and has demonstrated very good control the last couple of years.

It has been noted on this site and some other sites that Sabathia has a lot of mileage on his arm and threw 49 more innings last year than in 2006, and the first season over 200 in his career. Add in his postseason innings, and he becomes a very possibly breakdown candidate.

So what should an owner do? Don't panic and sell low. But if you get an offer that you'd consider pretty close to fair in the pre-season, I probably wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. I might even try just trading him straight up for another pitcher worth about the same, like a Brandon Webb. Otherwise, monitor him closely. Another start or two with poor control might mean it's time to start shopping him around aggressively, and hopefully he hasn't damaged his value too much by then.

As always, feel free to email me or comment for any specific advice for your league regarding Sabathia.

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Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.

The 5 People You Meet in Fantasy Baseball

Back in the day, the fact was that almost all fantasy players were really into the game. "Fantasy Dorks" we were called by those not gifted enough to play. A guy who talked about fantasy sports was mocked with such taunts as, "he definitely has no girlfriend" and similar barbs. My, my how times have changed! Now everyone has at least one team, and some are so obsessed with fantasy sports they are well overdue for their own support group.

Being one of those aforementioned 'fantasy dorks' with way too much time on my hands, I have gone beyond studying the game to studying the players themselves, and, given my affinity for the movie Reservoir Dogs, I will sometimes assign names to other owners in Fantasy Baseball leagues. And much like Joe, who ran the show in Tarantino's masterpiece, I don't allow people to pick their names, although mine are based more on your performance, not random colors. You might not always run into all of these people in every league, but I'd be willing to bet you'll get two or three every time.

Mr. Add & Drop--almost every league has this guy, and some have more than one. Mr. Add & Drop does exactly what his name says, adds and drops players with all the discretion of your proverbial drunken sailor. I'm talking 2 or 3 moves on a daily basis. I've got a guy in one league I'm in who was closing in on 70 moves and the season just started! All this type of player is doing is recycling one free agent after another, trying to hit that one prize that he can actually use. And when they actually do score a winner, all you'll hear is them shout to the rooftops about how they knew all along that he was going to be a diamond in the rough, and how smart they were for picking up that player when they did! Can you say blind squirrel? Give your team members a longer leash before they find themselves on the chopping block. You can identify this fan by his unique appreciation of Dan Snyder's player management.

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Mr. Disappearing Drafter--my least favorite player. This character is the one who comes to the draft, is about as successful as a Alaskan ice cube salesman, then a month into the season find themselves in dead last and you never hear from them again. They don't ever check back in, they don't replace people that are injured. Their average daily lineup has more holes in it than the Golden State Warriors' defense, and their players are completely out of the game as you can't trade with this person because they don't play. This player can normally be spotted wearing either Kansas City Royals, Oakland Raiders or Memphis Grizzlies gear.

Mr. 2001 All-Star Team--he's very excited about the attempted return of Juan Gonzalez, because he's got a roster spot for him. This is generally a player that doesn't spend a bunch of their time keeping up on their fantasy baseball. They can't believe Todd Helton fell to the third round, and didn't Sean Green hit 40+ homers just last year? You can spot these guys at the draft because they are usually wearing a 80's hair band concert shirt.

Mr. 2010 All-Star Team--the opposite of Mr. 2001 is Mr. 2010. He'll have Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Evan Longoria, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Phil Hughes on this team. It is vital for a championship team to have some of these guys sprinkled around their roster, but oh no, Mr. 2010 has them all…..and he's in 8th place. Rookies are nice, but usually inconsistent. Loading up on them is not a good strategy. Normally can be seen wearing a throwback LeBron James St. Vincent-St. Mary High School jersey.

Mr. Hometown Hero--This one seems to involve Yankee fans an awful lot of the time. You can tell who this person's favorite team is by looking at their roster for two seconds. It is loaded with players from one specific team, and the holes are filled by guys who USED to play for that team. You don't see this a lot with Orioles or Nationals fans. Let's face it, after Brian Roberts and Ryan Zimmerman there isn't a lot to get excited about with those clubs. But Mr. Hometown Hero Yankee fan will have Posada, Giambi, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod, Wang, Rivera, etc. The good part about this player is that if you happen to be lucky enough to get one of their favorite team's players, you can usually milk them and get much more than their value back in a trade. Easily identifiable by the NY jersey with the big blue number 2 on the back.

Honorable Mention:

Mr. Draft Day Commentator--This guy has something to say about everyone's picks. "Too early for him," "Isn't he hurt already?" "That guy sucks," and very rarely "Nice pick." But of course, if you were to question one of his picks, he's got all the stats and reasons why all of his picks were perfect. I always forget to mark down who is the Draft Day Commentator, because during the draft I am praying to God that this guy finishes at the bottom of the league. A little back and forth conversation during the draft is welcome, but hey buddy, shut up!

As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Clearing The Bases - NL Predictions

Clearing The Bases – NL Predictions

By George Kurtz, The Fantasy Sports Forum.com

East
New York Mets
With the addition of Johan Santana, the Mets have to be considered the favorite to not only win the East, but to represent the National League in the World Series. Their offense is every bit as good as any other in the NL. And while their pitching may not match their offense, it’s certainly equal to if not better than any of their division opponents..

Atlanta Braves
This could be the Braves year after a couple of off-seasons, but I have a hard time seeing them beating the Mets with Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton in the rotation. Not to mention, John Smoltz is already missing his first start. They should be able to score plenty of runs with that lineup, however.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phils just don’t have the pitching. After Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, what do you have left? They can hit, and they will mash, but pitching is what wins you games, and the Phils don’t have it.

Washington Nationals
Washington opened up their beautiful new stadium. Good to see the fans support their Nats. They are still a few years away from serious contention, but they won’t be a terrible team. What’s the over/under on when Nick Johnson gets hurt?

Florida Marlins
What can you say about the Marlins? How about, good luck on getting that new ballpark.

Central
Chicago Cubs
Could this be the Cubbies year? I think so. They have quality pitching and quality hitting all around. They are built to win now. Sure they have questions at the back of their rotation, but who doesn’t in the Central. Key part for Chicago is Kerry Wood; if he can hand the closer role, leaving Carlos Marmol to handle the 8th, the Cubs could shut down opposing teams to close out their games.

Milwaukee Brewers
Wouldn’t blame anyone for picking the Brew Crew to finish first. Both teams are very similar. Once again Milwaukee needs Eric Gagne to be able to close out games. He certainly didn’t impress anyone on with his first chance.

Cincinnati Reds
The pitching is starting to show up for the Reds, and while it won’t be this season, they’re certainly headed in the right direction.

Houston Astros
The Astros can hit, but after Roy Oswalt, what is left in that rotation? It looks like it should be rebuilding time, but Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Lance Berkman will keep them in many games.

St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards were well aware this would be a trying season for them. That’s one of the reasons why it was a bit of a surprise that Tony LaRussa signed on once again to manage the team. Not to mention, everyone is waiting for the elbow of Albert Pujols to explode.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Beautiful stadium, terrible team. They have been in the decade long rebuilding project, and it may be another decade before they are good again.

West
Arizona Diamondbacks
This is the best division in baseball, and you can make an argument for any of the top four teams to finish first. Arizona seems to be the most well rounded. They’re top two pitchers of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren will make life miserable for opposing hitters. They have an impressive array of young hitters. If Brandon Lyon fails at the closers role, Tony Pena is ready to step in.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Torre couldn’t have stepped in to a much better situation. The Dodgers are loaded with young talent in both pitching and hitting. It seems that Torre has put faith in his young outfielders, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, which is a change from his days of favoring veterans. I believe the Dodgers are a year away from a division title.

Colorado Rockies
Yeah they won 22 in a row at the end of last season and went to the World Series; let’s see them perform that way over an entire season. I’m just not a big fan of the starting pitching, and the division is a beast.

San Diego Padres
Just not enough hitting in San Diego. Where are the runs going to come from? Once again, someone has to finish fourth in this division; the fathers are a good team, just not good enough.




San Francisco Giants
Hmmmmmmm. When Benji Molina is your cleanup hitter, enough said. Giant fans can look forward to the number once pick in the 2009 entry draft.

Wild Card Winner: Brewers
Pennant Winner: Mets

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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Listen to our PODCAST Interview with Fred Lynn!

Click on the link below to listen to our 3/31/2008 Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show with our outstanding interview with former MLB player Fred Lynn. Listen as we discuss Fred's career, his thoughts on fantasy baseball, and on projections for the 2008 season.

Fred Lynn Interview Podcast - 3/31/2008

CLOSER REPORT UPDATE: 2 Closers have changed!

Sorry for the somewhat late news on the first one, but I just couldn't believe that Jon Rauch is now the closer in Washington. I had to confirm it with my sources in D.C., but it looks like the Nationals are looking to trade Cordero and move forward with Rauch.

SEATTLE:
JJ Putz went down with a rib cage injury and will probably be out till early to mid May. It looks like current started and former closer Miguel Batista will close games.

FBS Closer Report

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