Week 21 completed Match ups: Mock Draft Central 7 at Fight Chance Fantasy 3 Fantasy Baseball Generals 1 at Roto Authority 9 Pro Fantasy Games 5 at Rotodoc 4 Fantasy Baseball Starters 2 at Fantasy Baseball Search 8 Junkyard Jake 8 at Fantasy Baseball Mafia 2 Fantasy Baseball Geeks 2 at Baseball Geeks 8
We will have a heated final two weeks of the regular season with 3 playoff spots up for grabs.
After this week, Roto Authority clinched the East division with a 9-1 win over Fantasy Baseball Generals. Another frustrating week for Patrick DiCaprio who came into the league as a self-proclaimed favorite to make the playoffs, but has now had his 6th week of 1 or fewer wins.
Roto Authority held 1st place in the Est division nearly the entire season and will get a vacation the first week of the playoffs with a BYE.
Fantasy Baseball Search continued his hot streak with his league leading 16th victory in E.V.E. match ups (Expert Vs. Expert). He also gets to sit out the first week of the playoffs by clinching the West division with an 8-2 victory over Fantasy Baseball Starters. He finished 3-0 this year against Paul Greco's former team.
Junkyard Jake also clinched one of the remaining 2 playoff spots in the East division with a strong performance against Fantasy Baseball Mafia 8-2. Congratulations RC!
2 spots are still up for grabs. Baseball Geeks continued to make his bid for a playoff spot defeating his rival Fantasy Baseball Geeks 8-2. He closed to within 4 games of Fantasy Baseball Geeks and 6 games of Pro Fantasy Games. He has 20 games left to pickup at least 5 on FBG. That race looks as though it will go down to the wire.
West Magic Numbers (40 left): Pro Fantasy Games 15 Fantasy Baseball Geeks 17
There is only 1 spot left in the East Division and two teams fighting for it. Mock Draft Central has a 5 game lead on Fantasy Baseball Mafia after week 21. with 2 weeks left Evan Dickens will have to pick up 5.5 games in order to advance to the playoffs. Good luck to both of you.
East Magic Numbers (40 left): Mock Draft Central 15
Next week we have some exciting matches to watch that will effect the remaining 3 playoff spots: Baseball Geeks at Roto Authority Fantasy Bbl Geeks at Mock Draft Central Rotodoc at Fantasy Baseball Mafia Pro Fantasy Games at Fight Chance Fantasy
This is a tough time of the season for fantasy owners. The trading deadline has passed, there’s not a whole lot left on the waiver wire, so what do you do when one of your stars gets injured? Seems to be a lot of that going on in Major League Baseball. Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Troy Percival of the Rays, Carlos Lee of the Astros, Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees, Billy Wagner of the Mets, the Rangers just lost MVP candidate Ian Kinsler possibly for the remainder of the season - the list just goes on and one. If your team lost more than one of these players, then good luck to you.
Everyone keeps thinking Jimmy Rollins will turn it around and get his season going, but it’s time to realize that’s just not going to happen. The Phillies seem to go as Rollins goes, and that may be not very far this season.
Scott Kazmir finally made it out of the fifth inning on Sunday night; of course he still threw over 100 pitches to do so.
Yovani Gallardo has actually been throwing a baseball from the mound, still hard to believe he will be of any use to the Brewers this season.
It’s a good thing for Carlos Gomez that Michael Cuddyer broke a bone in his foot and will miss the remainder of the season or else he would be in serious jeopardy of losing playing time.
Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez look to return to the Indians lineup sometime within the next week.
Hank Blalock should return sometime this week. He will be moved back to first base. Chris Davis will platoon with Ramon Vazquez at third.
Vernon Wells has returned and is back with a vengeance. If for some reason he is available in your league, you might want to think about picking him up.
Everyone in Los Angeles loves Manny. Of course they do, he’ll play his heart out when money is on the line, but I wouldn’t want to be the team offering him a free agent contract next season. Once he gets his money, he will return to his old ways, and that is not the player you want on your team.
BJ Upton just doesn’t get it now does he? He’s been caught not running out ground balls twice and than last night he jogged out of the box after hitting what he thought was a home run, and than jogged all the way to second base. No problem right, wrong. Angels first baseman Mark Teixeira was trailing the play from behind, caught the throw and tagged Upton out before he reached the base. How many games does he have to sit before it’s ingrained in his head to run?
Joba Chamberlain has begun throwing for the Yanks again; his return could be about 10 days away. The Yanks however, are thinking about placing him back in the bullpen to ease the stress on his shoulder. Carl Pavano and Phillip Hughes are both candidates to claim a spot in the rotation.
Troy Percival is hoping to return the first day he is eligible to come off the DL, 8/30. Dan Wheeler has converted three straight saves as interim closer.
Come listen to Johnny Archive, Todd Farino, AJ Pelletier, and a whole bunch of other experts get into a dog fight of a draft. The draft broadcast will be held at Blog Talk Radio http://www.blogtalkradio.com/FridayNightFootball
Join us for some fun, laughs, excitement, and much more!
This was another exciting and crucial week in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. with only 4 weeks to go it was now or never for some teams if they want to make the playoffs.
The two division leaders Fantasy Baseball Search and Roto Authority continued to dominate with hard fought matches against rival division foes. Fantasy Baseball Search played "The toughest match of the year". I will say this Chris from Pro Fantasy Baseball might have lost 6-3, but I had a 9-1 lead going into the weekend swing and at one point on Sunday it was 5-4 in my favor. I hit here or there or a strikeout and the games is easily 5-5. He also beat me in saves (8-7) for my 2nd overall loss in the saves category (15-2-3).
Roto Authority got a big nearly division clinching win against rival Mock Draft Central 7-3. Even with the tough loss, Mock Draft Central remains in 3rd place in the East division and holds a playoff spot.
MDC is tied (has the tiebreaker) With Evan over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia. They trounced Fantasy Baseball Generals 10-0. That is the 3rd time this year the Generals have been shutout and fourth time they've been held to less than 1 win. The big win pulled FBM into a tie with Mock Draft Central for the final playoff spot in their division. Fantasy Baseball Mafia has a key match up against 2nd place contender Junkyard Jake this week.
The devastating loss for Fantasy Baseball Generals , one of the more hyped teams before the season, eliminated them from playoff contention.
Fantasy Baseball Geeks held off a tough fighting Rotodoc.com 5-4 and took back 2nd place in the West division. Rotdoc.com has been officially eliminated from playoff contention.
Ryan Hallam was brave enough to take over the worst team (record wise) in the league for Fantasy Fanatics and was eliminated from the playoffs this week with a 5-5 tie to Junkyard Jake. Ryan took over the team in week 11 and finished 42-57 and turned this poorly maintained team around with big wins over Roto Authority, Fantasy Baseball Mafia, and two wins over Fantasy Baseball Generals. His team was the worst in the league, but passed two teams since week three (Rotodoc.com and Fantasy Baseball Generals). He can still pass up a few with his steadily improving team.
Baseball Geeks held onto its playoff hopes ting Fantasy Baseball Starters 5-5. Rob remains 8.5 games out with a huge match up coming this week versus Fantasy Baseball Geeks, one of the teams keeping him out of the playoffs. They are separated by 10 games in the standings.
Fantasy Baseball Starters, formally owned and operated by Melnick and Greco was eliminated from the playoffs only 4 weeks after Paul Greco quit the team for mysterious reasons. AJ Pelletier from Fantasy Baseball Starters filled in admirably, but could not improve the poorly performing team fast enough to make a playoff run.
With 3 weeks left every playoff spot is still up for grabs. There are 6 total spots and 8 teams still in contention. We should see at least 2 spots clinched this week. Fantasy Baseball Search and Roto Authority will mathematically clinch, FBS needs 1 win, RA 4.
Key Match ups: Mock Draft Central at Fight Chance Fantasy - MDC central needs to put some distant between himself and Fantasy Baseball Mafia. Fighting Chance Fantasy might be out of the playoffs, but he is still able to play spoiler.
Junkyard Jake at Fantasy Baseball Mafia - Huge match up for the East Division. Junkyard Jake can cement his playoff spot with a huge win, but Fantasy Baseball Mafia can turn the division chaotic with a big win and needs to outperform Mock Draft Central.
Fantasy Baseball Geeks at Baseball Geeks - This is the most important match up of the week for Rob at Baseball Geeks. He is on the brink of elimination and is facing one of the teams trying to push him over. A big win here moves him so close to a late playoff berth, but also knocks Fantasy Baseball Geeks back. FBG's can all but lock up a playoff spot with a stellar win.
THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten Starting Pitchers, version 2 by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Here is version two of the Censor's projected SP draft rankings for 2009. We'll keep the commentary light this time so everyone can get back to watching the Olympics (or as I call it, the only thing less interesting than paint drying).
(note that all statistics are through 8/15/08)
1. Johan Santana - Now had seven fantastic starts massacred by the bullpen. May be the unluckiest starter in the majors this year.
2. Jake Peavy - While playing for one of the worst teams in baseball, Peavy has quietly taken over the NL ERA lead.
3. Brandon Webb - 20 wins before September 1st would really be something to talk about.
4. CC Sabathia - Really running up the IP, but can you blame them the way he keeps throwing?
5. Roy Halladay (+1) - Now seventh in the majors in total strikeouts. Who saw that coming?
6. Tim Lincecum (-1) - Thankfully the injury will not keep him out long, so we can really see how he holds up through 210 IP.
7. Cliff Lee - Yawn, another day, another solid complete game win. Is there really anyone left who doesn't think he's for real?
8. Rich Harden (+3) - Completely dominant with the Cubs, now has his season ERA down to a sick 2.17 on a great team. He is one broken toenail away from plummeting, though.
9. Dan Haren (-1) - One very ugly first inning against Pittsburgh, but Haren pitched like a gamer and turned the start into a win.
10. Cole Hamels - The nine wins are the most surprising part of his line. The way he's pitching, he should have twice that.
The Next Ten 11. Scott Kazmir (+1) 12. Chad Billingsley (+1) 13. Carlos Zambrano (-4) 14. Ryan Dempster (+1) 15. John Lackey (+1) 16. Ben Sheets (+1) 17. Daisuke Matsuzaka (NR) 18, James Shields 19. Ervin Santana (NR) 20. Josh Beckett (NR)
Dropped out: Edinson Volquez, Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez
Percival suffered the injury in Thursday's game at Oakland. He is expected to be out 2 or 3 weeks and surgery is possible ending his season. Grab Grant Balfour if you can as he will most likely close for the Rays the rest of the season.
By this point of the season it is getting harder and harder to find quality guys in free agency. I am not guaranteeing success with these guys, but here are ten players that can most likely help your fantasy teams as we are in the dog days of August.
Hitters
Chris Dickerson, Cincinnati Reds. The Reds brought Dickerson to the majors after trading Adam Dunn away to Arizona. He has a nice speed/power combination, although he doesn't overly excel at either. In 94 games at AAA this season, Dickerson hit .286 with 11 homers, 53 RBI, and 26 steals. Look for him to get the vast majority of the playing time for the Reds in left field. In his first two games since being called up, Dickerson is 4-9 with two doubles, an RBI, and a steal.
Jody Gerut, San Diego Padres. Gerut was once supposed to be a staple in the Indians outfield for years, but somewhere it went all wrong. In 2005 he went from Cleveland to the Cubs to the Pirates all in one season, and he missed all of 2006 and 2007, before catching on with the Padres this season. He has caught fire so far in August, and has five homers and ten RBI this month. Gerut did have 22 homers in 127 games in his rookie season, so this could be the start of a strong finish to the season for him.
Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Rays. Now, I am not endorsing this move, but I at least feel compelled to let you know that he is playing and should be available in your league. We all know about Baldelli's injury history, and this condition that he has that causes him to be fatigued all the time. But he was always a highly touted prospect, and IF he can stay in the game he could help you. Baldelli did put up some pretty decent numbers in the minors, as well as his first couple seasons before he was injured all the time. He has three hits in his four games since returning, and it is possible he could help you if you are in dire need of outfield. Just know he will have to rest sometimes, and might not even play the entire game.
Bryan LaHair, Seattle Mariners. He hasn't shown a lot of pop in his bat yet, but Richie Sexson's replacement in Seattle is more than holding his own. In his first 23 games in the majors, LaHair has hit .278 with two homers and four RBI. They have him batting pretty low in the lineup, which has been hurting his run producing statistics. In 85 games in the minors this year, LaHair did hit 12 homers and drive in 53 runs, so the potential is there. His biggest drawback is his plate discipline. Between the minors and majors in 2008, he has struck out 109 times in 108 games. He will NEED to improve on that.
Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox. This is a guy who has really fallen out of the good graces of fantasy owners over the past couple seasons. Now, with the addition of Ken Griffey Jr., Konerko really hasn't been playing every day. But with the way he has been hitting in August, the Sox would be wise to find him some at-bats. Since August 1st, Konerko has three homers and six RBI, as well as 2 three hit games. He has slugged over 40 homers in a season before, so if he gets hot, he could really help your team in the last six weeks.
Also consider: Frank Thomas, Oakland; Jim Edmonds, Chicago Cubs.
Pitchers
Anthony Reyes, Cleveland Indians. This is hoping that the proverbial "change of scenery" will help a guy out. Reyes was a highly ranked prospect for the Cardinals, and even won the first game of their 2006 World Series Championship. But he fell out of favor with Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, and was basically never given a real chance, or a defined role. St. Louis shipped him out at the trading deadline, and the Indians wasted no time giving him a chance. So far he has pitched twice for Cleveland, and both times he has been pretty effective, allowing just three runs in 12.1 innings. He isn't going to strike a ton of guys out, but in the minors he was around one an inning, so that stat could increase if he gets comfortable in Cleveland.
Jeff Karstens, Pittsburgh Pirates. One of the pitchers traded in the Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte trade, Karstens spent his career to this point with the Yankees and it has been average at best. Well, since he left the Bronx and moved to the National League, Karstens has looked GREAT. He has allowed only three runs in three starts, and they all came in one game. He took a perfect game into the 9th inning in his second start, and pitched six shutout innings in his first start for the Pirates. He isn't a strikeout pitcher, but could get you some cheap wins down the stretch. He doesn't strikeout too many batters, but if he keeps pitching like this, he is worth a roster spot.
Yusmeiro Petit, Arizona Diamondbacks. This is more of a potential pick then for what he has shown thus far in his major league career. Petit was a big time prospect for the Mets who was shipped to Florida in the Paul LoDuca trade. He has been pitching mostly out of the bullpen, but since the Diamondbacks have been pretty desperate for starting pitching after Micah Owings decided he couldn't find the strike zone anymore, Petit has gotten a few starts. He was very good in the Mets' farm system, and although he is more of a control pitcher than throwing gas, he got a pretty good number of strikeouts (130 in 117 IP in '05 for AA). His success hasn't really translated to the majors yet, but in his last outing he allowed only two runs over five innings and struck out six. I don't know if I would add him yet, but I would be watching his boxscores for the next couple weeks.
David Purcey, Toronto Blue Jays. Purcey had been called up for a couple of spot starts during the year for Toronto, but now he has become a regular part of the rotation. And while his spot starts, weren't great, he seems to be finding his groove somewhat now that he is a regular. His last start was his best against the Tigers, in which he threw six shutout innings and struck out four. He has some potential to turn into a quality pitcher. This season in the minors he was 8-6 with just a 2.69 ERA and 121 strikeouts in just 117 innings. Keep a watch on Purcey to see if he can continue his recent success.
Hideki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers. This guy is up and down more than an elevator in the Empire State Building. Following three starts in which he gave up 17 runs, Kuroda has allowed just three runs in his last three starts. Not only are his runs allowed sporadic, but his strikeout numbers are as well. When he is pitching good, he gets the Ks. When he is off, so are the strikeouts. Case in point, the three starts that he allowed 17 runs.....six strikeouts. The last three where he allowed just three runs.....17 strikeouts. He is incredibly inconsistent, but might be the best pitcher available in your league.
Other options: Jesse Litsch, Toronto; Paul Byrd, Boston; Jarrod Washburn, Seattle (for now); Carl Pavano (ha, ha), New York (DL), Brandon McCarthy, Texas (DL).
For more great information like this, go to fightingchancefantasy.com. I always welcome your emails at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
One of my coworkers is a big White Sox fan who is playing fantasy baseball for the first time in his life (he's winning with my advice, by the way, but that's neither here nor there). On more than one occasion, he's stopped by my office to talk about how much he loves his young staff. John Danks, he says, is awesome, and Gavin Floyd is also really good.
Well, he's half right.
There have been times this year when looking at the simple, four-category fantasy starting line of both 25-year-old Gavin Floyd and 23-year-old John Danks would lead you to conclude that, while Danks has slightly better numbers, they're both solid fantasy pitchers. But you would only have concluded that if you reviewed the surface statistics and did not drill down deeper. So leave it to the Censor to point out the statistics that expose really how great the chasm is between these two pitchers.
1. Dominance & Control - Danks brings a solid 7.5 K/9 rate to the park; Floyd checks in at a much more pedestrian league-average 6.3, which means you can expect him to rely more on pitching to contact (more on that later). But the strikeouts stand out even more in relation to walks -- Floyd sports a below-average 1.74 K/BB; Danks a much stronger 3.18 K/BB. Danks is striking out more, while walking significantly less, and throwing 65.4% of his pitches for strikes while Floyd only throws a very mediocre 61% for strikes.
2. Batted Balls - Remember that expectation about Floyd pitching to contact? His GB/FB rate is in its fourth consecutive year of decline, now all the way down to 1.01. And a lot of those fly balls are leaving the park; Floyd's 1.34 HR/9 hovers near the bottom ten among ERA-qualifying starters. Danks, on the other hand, even with significantly more strikeouts, has improved his GB/FB rate to 1.27 and cut his HR/9 all the way down to 0.69. So let's review: Danks strikes out more, walks fewer, and still gets more ground balls with very few home runs. Floyd has performed mediocre-to-poor in all of these areas. So why have his surface fantasy statistics been almost as appealing as Danks at times?
3. Luck - The elusive BABIP (batting average on balls in play, in case you're new here), which is truly the best pure measurement of a pitcher's luck, tells us the story. Danks sports a BABIP of .297, right at league average, implying that what you see is very much what you get--and what you'd expect, given his solid strikeout and home run rates. Floyd, on the other hand, is sneaking by with a .250 BABIP--tied for fifth lowest in the majors and far, far below the league average. The smart fantasy player knows this statistic has every reason to start regressing towards a league average, and when that happens Floyd's 1.26 WHIP is going to get even uglier.
There's a very useful statistic called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that I often reference--it is a strict measure of a pitcher's controllable metrics, an equation that plugs HR, K, BB, and IP into a formula which functions as a reasonable ERA predictor. Danks has an FIP of 3.22 and an ERA of 3.18. Again, what you see is what you get. Floyd has an FIP of 4.99--and an ERA of 3.84, which is actually almost forty points higher than it was two weeks ago, and clearly still has plenty of reasonable expectation towards the upside.
It all boils down to this: a look at the peripherals and the important ratios shows that Danks is the real deal, a solid pitcher who is likely to be a strong fantasy frontliner for many years. He really is awesome. Floyd, on the other hand, is a mediocre, borderline rosterable starter whose pair of recent troubling starts was entirely predictable with a deeper look at the numbers, and who should have been traded from your team for whatever you could get. Not "really good"--just really lucky.
AP - Aug 11, 7:08 pm EDT 1 of 2 MLB Gallery ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (AP)—Even with a healthy Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, the Tampa Bay Rays knew it would be a challenge to stay atop the AL East. Without them, help will have to come from every corner of the clubhouse.
“You go around and there’s been a lot of guys who have helped us get to this point, some with limited playing time,” executive vice president of baseball operation Andrew Friedman said Monday after rookie All-Star third baseman Longoria joined Crawford on the 15-day disabled list because of a broken right wrist.
“A few of these guys are going to get more at-bats and more playing time, and we have confidence they will help keep us in the position that we’re in today.”
The Rays, who set a franchise record for victories in a season with their 71st, began Monday with a 4 1/2 -game lead over second-place Boston.
But with Longoria and two-time All-Star Crawford sidelined, they face the challenge of trying to stay ahead of the Red Sox and third-place New York Yankees without two of their best offensive and defensive players.
Crawford, a four-time AL stolen base champion batting .273 with 57 RBIs and 25 steals, went on the DL with a right hand injury on Sunday. There’s been speculation that he could face season-ending surgery, though Friedman stressed he didn’t want speak prematurely about the outfielder.
“We’re still seeking medical opinions to come up with the best course of action,” Friedman said. “We probably won’t have anything definitive until (Tuesday).”
Crawford, batting .349 with five triples during an 11-game hitting streak, was injured during his final at-bat on Saturday.
“Obviously it’s a tough situation, but this team has shown great perseverance all year and I expect it will continue,” Friedman said.
“We’ll continue to monitor the waiver wire, but this underscores the emphasis that we’ve placed on depth. We haven’t gotten to this point on the back of any one player. It’s been a team effort all year, and I expect that to continue.”
The move with Longoria was retroactive to Friday, the day after the 22-year-old was hit by a pitch from Seattle closer J.J. Putz. He missed the past three games and took a red-eye flight home to St. Petersburg early Monday to be examined by a team doctor.
Friedman said the club initially believed a previous fracture that had not been detected might be the source of some of Longoria’s discomfort. While the latest tests revealed it was a new fracture, the Rays remain hopeful that he will be able to return to the lineup within two to three weeks.
“It’s non-displaced, which is good news. As we’re looking at it now, we don’t think it will be too long after that two-week period,” Friedman said. “Whether it’s three weeks, or a little bit sooner than that, or a little bit later, I’m not sure.”
The team recalled outfielder Justin Ruggiano from Triple-A Durham to fill the roster opening.
Willy Aybar takes over as the regular third baseman, and Ruggiano figures to share playing time in left field with Eric Hinske and Gabe Gross.
“Different things create opportunities. You can reflect on the negative part or on the positive of giving these guys opportunities to help this team further our lead in the standings,” Friedman said. “That’s the way we’re going to look at it. It doesn’t do any good to dwell on the other side.”
Longoria, who began the season in the minors, is hitting .278 with a Rays rookie-record 22 home runs and 71 RBIs.
He also leads AL third basemen with a .971 fielding percentage and had not missed a game since joining the Rays on April 12 from Triple-A Durham.
The youngest Rays position player ever to make the All-Star team, Longoria was the third pick in the 2006 draft.
Ruggiano will begin his fourth stint with the Rays this season when the team opens a three-game series at Oakland on Tuesday night. In 15 games, he has batted .290 with one home run and two RBIs while playing all three outfield positions.
The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired outfielder Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday in exchange for Minor League pitcher Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.
Dunn, 28, is hitting .233 and is tied for the Major League lead with 32 home runs and 74 RBIs this year in 114 games. The right fielder has an on-base percentage of .373 and a slugging percentage of .528.
Dunn will become a free agent after making $13 million this year.
Buck was selected in the third round of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft and underwent Tommy John surgery last year. He returned to action a couple of months ago and went 1-4 with a 3.94 ERA in nine games (eight starts) for Class A South Bend. The right-hander was promoted to Arizona's high-A ball team in Visalia earlier this month and in his lone start allowed three unearned runs in five innings.
Carlos Lee is going to most likely miss the rest of the season with a broken pinkie. Lee was hit by a pitch from Bronson Arroyo, and the x-rays showed the break. This is a horrible turn of events for his fantasy owners as Lee was having another underappreciated, yet awesome season. He was batting .318, with 28 HRs, and an NL-leading 100 RBI. There is no way that you can replace the statistics that he is putting up from the free agent pool, and this is the kind of thing that sends fantasy players to the local pub, or to their therapist.
Tim Hudson had Tommy John surgery the other day, and will obviously be gone for the rest of the season. Most likely 2009 is in jeopardy as well. Huddy was continuing his success since joining the Braves this year, but even in keeper leagues, I would definitely let Hudson go.
Orlando Hudson will also miss the rest of the season when he broke his wrist attempting a tag on Brian McCann. Although Hudson isn't a household name or a big time fantasy player, in deeper leagues he is very useful at middle infield. He doesn't excel at any category, but gives you a little contribution in each category.
Adam Jones is also most likely done for the season after breaking a bone in his foot, fouling a ball off of it. Although the rookie had been a disappointment most of the season, he was really starting to come around since the All-Star Break, including a four-hit, six RBI game against the Yankees. For the season Jones hit .279 with seven homers, 50 RBI, and eight steals. He is definitely someone you want to remember towards the end of your draft next season.
After coming off the DL with his blister problem, Kerry Wood is now dealing with back issues as he is finally having the injuries we have all been waiting for him to have this season. He declared himself ready to go on Saturday, but manager Lou Pinella didn't sound as committed. The plan was for him to pitch in non-save situations for a bit after coming off the DL anyway, so it doesn't appear as Wood will be closing this week. If he can recover quickly, perhaps by next weekend he will be back in his normal role.
More closers, Rafael Soriano went to visit the dreaded Dr. James Andrews the other day, whose office I always picture like the torture chambers in the movie Hostel. Just pitchers getting cut up and screaming everywhere. But anyway, Soriano has had an elbow problem all season long, and he recommended some sort of surgery which is way too complicated for me to understand. Bottom line is, don't expect Soriano to be pitching again soon.
On a good note for once, Billy Wagner is set to start a few rehab appearances in the minors with the Mets' affiliate. Look for Wagner to pitch two or three times in A ball, and then the plan is for him to be activated on August 18th when he is eligible to return. All Mets' fans are breathing huge sighs of relief, as their bullpen has been a MESS lately.
How can it be a post about injuries without Rocco Baldelli? Amazingly, Baldelli has fought his way back to the majors and is starting Sunday for the Rays. He is stricken with a rare muscle disorder which effects his energy level and keeps him chronically fatigued. In his 13 game rehab assignment he hit .297 and had three home runs. Although this is a really nice story for a guy who really has been dealt a crappy hand to play, I wouldn't touch him in fantasy baseball.
Quick Notes
Phil Hughes went 4 2/3 innings in a rehab start, allowing just one run and striking out two. He is due to make another rehab appearance, and perhaps return to the Yankees rotation on August 17th.
Evan Longoria is dealing with a sore wrist all weekend, and although he won't play Sunday, says he will be back on Tuesday when the Rays are back on the field.
It is a creaky back that is keeping Ryan Braun sidelined, although this is another one that doesn't sound long term. Look for Braun to miss a few games this week, perhaps until Thursday at the latest. The Brew Crew can't afford to lose this guy's bat for long.
Vernon Wells is set to return for the Jays. He was activated in time for the game on Sunday and was at DH. Manager Cito Gaston said he should return to the outfield this week after missing 26 games with a strained hammy. In 64 games he is batting .287 with nine homers and 42 RBI.
Rangers rookie David Murphy is going to miss two to four weeks after spraining his right knee, and he was placed on the 15-day DL with a PCL sprain suffered in a collision at home plate. He is leading all AL rookies with 74 RBI and 117 hits.
Michael Young left Saturday's game with lingering trouble from his broken finger. I don't know how this guy is playing through this injury, but his manager said he should be back in the lineup on Sunday. It seems to be effecting his batting somewhat, as he only has two hits in his last ten at-bats.
Finally, Tim Wakefield is heading to the DL with tightness in his right shoulder. I guess throwing all of those blazing 78 mph fastballs takes its toll after a while. No real news available if he is going to miss more than the two weeks required with the DL stint.
Go to www.fightingchancefantasy.com for more great articles and news like this.
James Shields 2008: 10-7, 24 GS, 158 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 125 K
Count me among those who think that the best way to learn more about starting pitchers is to actually watch them pitch (which can be a debateable concept in the SABR crowd). Sadly, my Central Oregon location and my unfriendly cable system means that, other than whatever bones I get thrown on national ESPN and TBS games, I'm pretty much stuck with Mariners games, which has obviously not been an oasis of starting pitching this year. Friday night, though, the scheduling gods arranged me for to watch James Shields pitch and I was reminded of why I love this kid, and his future value, so much.
Young pitchers these days usually get hype due to their radar-busting fastball, or their ill slider. Shields is a different type of pitcher--a "thinking man's pitcher" you might say. One thing I love to see is the ability to mix pitches, and Shields is one of the best. He throws roughly 15 pitches per inning and knows how to keep hitters off-balance--on average, in one of those innings he'll throw 7 fastballs, 3 cutters, a curveball, and 4 changeups. Only Cole Hamels and Edinson Volquez throw a higher percentage of changeups.
And what a changeup it is--multiple batters on Friday looked like little leaguers, lunging out as the sinking 80 mph change just died in front of them. If you thought the Mariners offense was an easy target, welcome to August, where Seattle has a major-league leading .326 BA. They got to Shields once, when Balentin took a high fastball deep into the stands in the second inning, but all night Shields kept them guessing what he was going to throw next.
The 26-year-old Shields, despite having a healthy strikeout rate of 7.1, throws an extremely efficient 3.6 pitches per batter faced and, if you subtract the Red Sox game where he was tossed in the second, he averages a tidy 100 pitches and 7.1 IP per start, numbers his teammate (and purported team ace) Scott Kazmir would love to get close to. His disasters so far this year are forgiveable -- twice at Boston, once at Anaheim, and once at Cleveland (which wasn't really a true disaster). These disasters have made his home/road splits uglier than last year, and for now he should be used cautiously on the road against great offenses, but he's also lowered his home ERA all the way down to a sick 2.21 -- the best in the major leagues among ERA-qualifying starters. Oh, and don't forget his complete lack of walks--his 5.00 K/BB is fourth in the majors.
Keep an eye on Shields next year. It's almost guaranteed that strikeout specialists with sick stuff like Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Chad Billingsley, and Joba Chamberlain will get taken before him in the draft, while Shields and his middling 90 mph fastball is overlooked. What Shields will give you is consistency, health, above-average strikeouts, low WHIP, and wins on a team that clearly is going to be a contender for a while. He is, and will be, a fantastic second starter on any fantasy team. Someday James Shields will contend for an AL Cy Young, and you should make sure he's on your fantasy team when that day comes.
It has been an amazing season in the 1st annual Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. Besides Paul Greco quiting his team at the All-Star break it has been an absolute gem. The H2H format has been amazing and has made each weekly battle EXPERT VS EXPERT that much more exciting.
With 5 weeks left in the regular season all the experts look to turn it on and claim 1 of the 6 playoffs spots that are a ticket towards a championship. As of the beginning of week 19, Roto Authority and Fantasy Baseball Search have certainly locked up playoff spots, and are now playing to hold onto to their respective division leads and earn the first round bye in the playoffs.
Other heated playoff battles are raging throughout the league including:
West Division: 2 playoff spots up for grabs This division has been a bloody battleground with fierce match ups nearly every week. Fantasy Baseball Search fought off the second place team in week 18 with a dominating 7-2 victory and sealed his playoff spot, which he has a 21 game lead on. The new heart throb and teen sensation Pro Fantasy Games has splashed onto the scene taking second place in the West division with a 5.5 game lead over Fantasy Baseball Geeks led by Sean Sultaire. These two teams have been battling it out for weeks and trading spots in the division nearly every week. The two remaining playoff spots seem to be theirs for the taking, but Rob Reed from Baseball Geeks.com wants his piece of the action and refuses to lay down for anyone. His team has been on a tear after a very bad start and is chasing a playoff spot with only 7 games separating him from fantasy gold. With Rob's hot streak and several match ups coming between these three teams and the division leader Fantasy Baseball Search this division is still certainly up for grabs. The only near lock is The True Guru's team Fantasy Baseball Search will make the playoffs.
East Division: 2 playoff spots up for grabs Tim Dierkes over at Roto Authority has all but wrapped up his playoff spot with a 23 game lead on it, but he has been slowing a bit and eve though his division lead is still sizable at 13.5 games the raging hot Junkyard Jake squad ran by RC Rizza has been charging towards taking that spot and in week 18 beat Roto Authority 6-4 to gain 2 more games. Junkyard Jake has been very hot over the past 6 weeks and has come back all the way from second to last to claim second place in the East Division. Evan Dickens over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia has completed tough and is in a tight race with Geoff Stein over at Mock Draft Central. They have been locked up all season battling for a playoff spot playing leap frog. Currently that spot belongs to Geoff as he leads Evan by 2 games. That will be a race that goes down to the very last week. Either way one of those great teams may not make the playoffs and that will be a shame.
The other four teams in the league (2 in the east and 2 in the west) are not mathematically eliminated, but are long shots to regain a playoff spot. I will keep you posted on all the league developments from this point on. It winner takes in all in this league. 1 team, 1 expert will be the champion. It's going to be an exciting race to the finish.
It is looking more and more that Maybin won't be spending any meaningful time in the major leagues with Florida this season. One, the Marlins are in the middle of a pennant race, and probably can't afford to have a guy "learning on the job" every day in centerfield. Second, Maybin just hasn't produced in AA at all like we thought he would. His average is too low, he isn't hitting for enough power or driving in runs. He is striking out at an Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard pace, but not hitting the way those guys do. His stolen base numbers are nice, but he won't be contributing in any significant way to Florida's hopes this year. In his last ten games he is hitting .243, with no homers, just two RBI, and one steal. If you are in a keeper league and have held him all year long, continue to do so. Seasonal leagues, let him go.
LaPorta was traded out of Milwaukee, which we all thought would put him on the fast track to the major leagues. However, he is now going to play for the United States baseball team in the Olympic Games, so that kept him out of the majors for Cleveland. In two weeks, when the Olympics are over, we will see what the Indians' plans are for their new crown jewel, but it seems like he will only have a few weeks of major league experience this year, not the ten or twelve weeks we were all hoping for when he was traded for C.C. Sabathia. After being white hot for the first half of the year in the minors, LaPorta has certainly cooled off. In his last ten games he is hitting just .139, with no home runs, and just three RBI.
After the Pirates traded away two-thirds of their starting outfield, there was some thought that perhaps McCutchen might get a chance to show his stuff in the big leagues. But Steve Pearce and newly-acquired Brandon Moss have been manning the outfield with Nate McLouth in Pittsburgh, and it appears McCutchen will just be a late season call up, unless Moss or Pearce don't hit at all. In his last ten games, he is hitting .270, with no homers, two RBI, and three steals.
Once a shining star prospect for the Angels, McPherson couldn't keep his average up or his strikeouts down. After that, he couldn't stay healthy and the Angels finally decided to part company with Dallas. So McPherson went where everyone goes when no other team will give them a chance, Florida. He had a great chance to win the starting third base job out of Spring, but another injury gave it to Jorge Cantu who doesn't look like he is giving it up anytime soon. McPherson will need an injury to the big club to get a chance, but he could make the most of it, as the average is way up, and he is stealing bases as well. Pitchers
Last year's minor league leader in strikeouts, Gonzalez had been struggling for most of the season, but has since looked like he has righted the ship.He was traded to the A's in the Nick Swisher trade, and he should see some time in the majors at some point this year. Since the end of June he has allowed only eight earned runs in seven starts and has struck out 45 guys in just 41 innings. He will most likely a guy that you will want to give a look at when he comes up, but just be ready that in Oakland he won't be winning too many games, but you can't argue with the strikeout ability.
The Angels top pitching prospect has done nothing to instill any confidence of fantasy owners if/when he gets another shot in the majors. Not only did he struggle bad when he was called to Anaheim, but now he can't even get AAA batters out. At one point in the season, he had allowed six or more runs in five straight starts, and although the strikeouts have begun to improve, it doesn't matter when the rest of the numbers are that bad. Adenhart still has talent, but his struggles have made is so that you can't pick him up when he arrives until after you see some success at the major league lever.
This is one of the most dynamic pitching prospects to come around in some time. Price has dominating stuff, and he continues to climb through the ranks of the Tampa farm system at an alarming rate. He is awesome at all things, he doesn’t walk many, his strikeout rate is just about one an inning, and he doesn't allow many runs.Now that the Rays are a team that actually scores runs and wins games, Price is probably the hottest commodity to get your hands on in those leagues that allow minor league players. He has been so good in fact, that I heard on the radio today, that the Rays are considering calling up Price in the semi-near future and putting him in a similar role that the Yankees did with Joba Chamberlain last season. Everyone will want Price when he arrives, even if he is just in a middle relief role.
Scherzer caused quite a buzz when he was called up by the Diamondbacks earlier this season. He did well at first, but over time the league started to hit him When Doug Davis returned from cancer surgery, Scherzer was sent back down. He was pretty dominant while he was starting, but lately he had been pitching out of the bullpen. The strikeout numbers are eye popping, and his stuff is some of the best in the minors. He might not see Arizona again this season, and if he does, I would be really surprised if it was in a starting role (barring injuries, of course). He is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and whenever he is in the majors to stay, you will want him on your team.
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THE STARTING LINE: 2009 Top Ten SP, v1 by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
August means many things...county fairs, triple-digit temperatures, last-ditch family trips trying to stave off the return to school--and for many, the final fantasy baseball surrender. Early August is about the time you'll see messages start to fly around in keeper leagues: "Hey guys, the white flag is waved, let's talk about keeper deals for next year." If you drafted Erik Bedard and Chone Figgins expecting great things this year, you probably are ready to start doing some hard thinking about next year, and since fantasy owners are consistently obsessed with future potential anyway--what better time to take a look at one censor's preliminary rankings of next year's starting pitchers!
Note that these rankings are as of 8/1/08, determined based only on information I have to date. These are subject to change as pitchers rise and fade during the last two months of the season and will be updated every couple of weeks until the offseason.
1. Johan Santana - He is still the best of the best, the most consistent, and the healthiest. Remember that "ugly" six-game streak where Santana went 0-5 recently? His ERA during those six games: 2.48. Every other pitcher would love those numbers during a six-game winning streak. And he plays on a perennial contender.
2. Jake Peavy - The brief health scare this year always sends a chill through owners, but he has come back as good as ever. Last year he went before Santana occasionally, but the low win total on a bad Padres team knocks him down a few picks--four out of five years with a sub-3.00 ERA, and five straight years with a 9+ K/9 rate, means he is still the unquestionable #2.
3. Brandon Webb - The third leg of the Holy Trinity of starters, Webb's once-concerning low K/9 rate has increased (for the fourth year in a row) up to 7.6. He is on pace for his fifth straight 200+ IP season and guess what--his WHIP is at a career low 1.13. We may not even have seen his best years. Just like Santana and Peavy, his ranking is a no-brainer and should be universal.
4. CC Sabathia - Number four is where it starts to get a little dicey, but based on Sabathia's recent run (which may be slightly contract-fueled), he has to go here. Innings-eating machines like CC are great for the ERA and WHIP stats, because even in subpar starts they are left in there to smooth things out. His 8.72 K/9 is a career high and if he doesn't break down once he gets above 230 innings, he may lead the majors in strikeouts. Imagine what his ratio stats would look like if not for those ugly back-to-back 9 ER games back in April.
5. Tim Lincecum - And if Sabathia doesn't lead the league in strikeouts, Tiny Tim will be right behind him. There was no question about Lincecum's talent; the question was always whether his control would be good enough to keep the pitch counts low. The answer this year: a spectacular yes. Lincecum has started 22 games this year and has pitched at least six full innings every single start but one. In an era of babied young arms and Kazmir-esque pitch counts, Lincecum's stuff is so sick and so consistent, he is just one or two more years of track record away from being at the top.
6. Roy Halladay - The seven complete games are no surprise; the real treat of Halladay's renaissance season is the 7.58 K/9 rate, a seven-year high and a whopping increase over the 5.5 average of the last two seasons. The health and age are of moderate concern; Halladay will be 32 next May, will cross 2000 IP next year, and has lost major parts of three of the last eight seasons to injury. But a pitcher who throws a complete game every three starts with a 1.51 BB/9 rate will always give himself a chance to get a win--and couldn't we all use more wins. Depending on where Sabathia signs, Halladay might be the top starter in AL-only leagues.
7. Cliff Lee - There is an epidemic of skepticism about Lee's season, which is statistically the best in the majors among starting pitchers. I would challenge each and every skeptic to find statistical evidence why a decline is imminent. Lee's absurd 6.25 K/BB leads the majors (only Haren's 5.58 is close), his 0.43 HR/9 also leads the majors, and his ERA of 2.58 is second to the soon-to-crash Justin Duchscherer. So let's see: strikes out a ton, never walks anyone, and doesn't give up any home runs. Sounds like my kind of fluke.
8. Dan Haren - Haren must be really angry about Lee's great season, because it's keeping writers from using the same superlatives about him. In this case, though, skepticism is more limited since Haren is simply pitching exactly like we'd expect. His K/9 of 8.17 is a career high--and he has improved that rate every single year in his six-year career. His BB/9 of 1.46 is a career low, as is his 0.67 HR/9. His .275 BABIP implies a bit of luck involved, and he doesn't pitch in the greatest park. But if Haren does not slow down in August as he did last year, he could continue moving up.
9. Carlos Zambrano - Post-contract hangover has had no effect on Big Z, who has posted a sparkling 2.80 ERA and cut his BB/9 from a career rate above 4.0, all the way down to 2.92 this year. The K/9 rate of 6.10 is definitely on the low side but he's adjusted his style to pitch much better to contact, and he is still the ace of a really great team who eats innings the same way Sabathia and Halladay do. He is on track for 210+ IP for the sixth straight season.
10. Cole Hamels - Among young, lefty strikeout monsters, Hamels surpasses Scott Kazmir by virtue of his ability to pitch deeper into games. During an incredible nine-game streak recently, Hamels never pitched fewer than 7.0 innings while only going over 110 pitches twice. I would love to see him in a better home park but at least he has a solid offense behind him. Hamels is still only 24 and even though he pitches in the NL (where, based on this list, the vast majority of great pitchers are), he's got a Cy Young or two--or more--in his future as long as he keeps throwing his dazzling Santana-like changeup and devastating curveball.
The Next Ten
11. Rich Harden 12. Scott Kazmir 13. Chad Billingsley 14. Edinson Volquez 15. Ryan Dempster 16. John Lackey 17. Ben Sheets 18. James Shields 19. Erik Bedard 20. Felix Hernandez
Rankings will be updated every two weeks. Take heart, surrenderers--2009 is almost here! ~Evan the Censor
(please send all SP comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com - I will print them in future columns)
