We are continuing with our review of our calls and picks for the 2008 fantasy baseball season.
In this post we will cover some of our top picks during the preseason. These were picks we made back in February armed only with stats, top secret information and a copy of the Colonel's famous receipt.
Jacoby Ellsbury - What more can you say about this guy. Unlike some other experts we knew he would be the starting CF in Boston and he hasn't disappointed. He did injure his wrist in early June derailing his to start. As he continues to adjust to pitching as all rookies do he will go through slumps. We called him our #1 sleeper and told everyone he's worth a 10th or 11th round draft pick. So far with 50+ stolen bases, 90 runs, 45 RBI, and 7 home runs I think he proved our point. He did disappoint us with his batting average, but we expect him to make adjustments and improve that next season and he matures.
Ryan Braun - We ranked him the 13th best player in fantasy baseball and he has not dissappointed us. It was even commented on our show by another expert that he could be the best overall fantasy baseball player and he did match up well against AROD who was the overall #1 pick.
Albert Pujols - Allot of experts got scared because of his bad elbow and ran away from this guy. Other followed that rush like a Wall St. crisis. The True Guru did not. After reading everything that was going on, we rated him #10 only because of concern. He will be the National League MVP.
Kevin Youkilis - We didn't rate him as high as he should have been, but we drafted him across the board and got a great value in him. He overwhelmed fantasy baseball with 29 home runs and 115 RBI. If you drafted him in the late rounds you got yourself a 2nd or 3rd round value pick.
Tim Lincecum - Yes we called this guy a sleeper. Why shouldn't we? e was on a terrible team and was coming off a 7-5 season witha 4.00 ERA. We saw last year that he had incredible pitches especially his fastball, but he lacked control of it. It was just a matter of time and he's looking for a Cy Young award this year.
Rich Harden - Another guy we liked, but fell because of injury. Our logic on him was, he has to have a healthy year at some point! Well he did and had a great season going 10-2 with 181 K's in 148 innings. Add in only 61 walks. Very good.
Kerry Wood - He knew he'd be the closer for the Cubs and not Marmol. There's 34 saves from your 16th round or later draft pick.
Hanley Ramirez - We rated him #2 overall and he outperformed Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, and Matt Holiday. We expected more stolen bases from him, but overall very good.
Grady Sizemore - We loved this guy coming in and knew he had 30/30 potential. We rated him #11 and he didn't let us down with 33 HRs and 38 SBs.
Francisco Rodriguez - We rated him the #1 closer and overall #19. Most experts would tell you to stay away from closers early, but we liked him too much with that improved Angels team. 62 saves and 77 K's proves his value.
Jon Lester - We rated him our #40 sleeper this season and he exceeded those expectations. 16-6, 125 Ks, and a low 3.21 ERA showed that is will now command respect next season.
Some other great preseason picks by The True Guru:
Brandon Lyon
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Alex Rios
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Beltran
We did have seom bad picks that we are not proud of. Here is a short list:
THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The Censor was privileged to participate in the first 2009 expert mock draft on Sunday night (thanks to Tony Cincotta for the invite). While there were plenty of storylines and strange picks (including some sketchy mid-round offense picks by yours truly)--and a whole lot of reaches on drafting catchers--my role here is that of the SP nerd and I will focus my attention accordingly. You've hopefully been following along as I've been ranking the top 20 SPs for 2009; here is the Who and the Where of the top 20 starters in the first real 2009 draft.
1. Johan Santana (r2p14) - Yours truly was more than happy to get the party started. Frankly I think Santana is a first-rounder but with the soft wheel, I took a power 1B in Howard and crossed my fingers to get Johan coming back. Verdict: Definitely a fair spot.
2. C.C. Sabathia (r3p30) - You can't blame anyone for loving Sabathia after what he's done in the last two months. Now that he's going to the playoffs and getting his offseason money, it might be worthwhile to be a bit leery. Verdict: Not bad, but a bit risky for my taste.
3. Jake Peavy (r3p33) - This owner was reaching all day long and this was no different--no pitcher with a single-digit win season can be taken this high, especially with Peavy's breakdown this month and no real hope of the Padres getting much better next year. Verdict: At least a full round too early.
4. Brandon Webb (r3p36) - Webb's string of poor starts late in the season probably cost him the Cy Young, but he's a horse and one of the few sure things around, so even though I have a pitcher ranked above him, Webb is a solid pick in the late third or early fourth. Verdict: Hard to disagree with.
5. Tim Lincecum (r4p38) - The Censor's second SP was taken here with much elation. If you ever have the opportunity to take the major league strikeout leader in the fourth round, it is cause to celebrate. I realize there's injury concerns with the high pitch count but not enough to discount him and his sick numbers this far. Verdict: A value pick at worst and a potential act of larceny.
6. Roy Halladay (r5p55) - A perfect spot for the 20-game winner and IP monster. Cross your fingers he keeps the strikeouts up. Verdict: Right where I would have taken him.
7. Dan Haren (r6p63) - There were so many times this season when Haren looked like a top-tier pitcher, but another late season fade probably should have pushed him a bit lower than this. If an owner really wants Haren though, this is a fair spot. Verdict: I'd rather have Hamels, but the 6th round is fair value for Haren.
8. Scott Kazmir (r6p64) - Another questionable pick by the owner who took Peavy. Kazmir's potential is maddening but until he sees the seventh inning with consistency and gets his awful pitches per batter faced number down, he is nowhere near this level. Verdict: At least five pitchers on the board who should have gone before Kazmir.
9. Cliff Lee (r6p67) - My feelings on Lee are well-known--this is exactly where I've always said he should go and exactly where I have him in my rankings. A 22-win season is probably not repeatable, but his peripherals point to another top-10 season next year--for an improved Indians team. Verdict: Well done.
10. Josh Beckett (r6p68) - I don't know if this was an autopick, or just an excitable Red Sox fan, but this is a bad pick. Josh Beckett is not a top 20 pitcher going into 2009. Verdict: Whoops.
11. Cole Hamels (r6p69) - Should have gone earlier than the four pitchers taken before him--if Hamels drops into your lap this late in a draft, the fates have smiled upon you. Even a weary Mets fan like the Censor knows that Hamels has a Cy Young or two in his near future. Verdict: Smashing value; the fourth round is justifiable for Hamels.
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka (r7p75) - The WHIP obviously needs to come down a bit but pitching for such a good team is always going to be a positive. DiceK actually had a win for every nine innings he pitched--think Jake Peavy is jealous? Verdict: Looks high at first glance, but in reality a solid pick.
13. John Lackey (r8p85) - I have dropped Lackey and his declining strikeout rate lower than this in my rankings, but don't forget he has a solid track record and pitches for a great team. With a full season of health, an uptick is a reasonably expectation. Verdict: No higher than this, and not before Billingsley, but Lackey in the 8th round is probably fair.
14. Chad Billingsley (r8p86) - I've had words about Billingsley being overrated, but this is far from overrated, and I was more than happy to make him my third SP in this spot. In reality he should have gone before the two pitchers taken before him. Verdict: At the risk of self-congratulating, I have to call this great value.
15. Felix Hernandez (r8p88) - Every time I watch him actually throw the ball, I bump him up about five slots, so it's tough to fault someone for this, but in reality he's still a spec play until he puts it together for a full season--and he pitches for the worst team in baseball. Verdict: He could have waited another round at least.
16. Roy Oswalt (r8p89) - Here's another example of trusting a track record. We all wish Oswalt could have been a bit more steady instead of a bad run, then an amazing run, but as a second starter he's a great choice. Verdict: The upside is not great but it's tough to argue with after the last two months.
17. James Shields (r8p90) - I've said many times that I think Shields and his unreal changeup are going to win a Cy Young, and that could be soon. There's a great chance he's the ace of the Rays next year. I wouldn't take him earlier than this but I will be looking for him in the late 8th or early 9th all year, and I can't wait to see him pitch in the playoffs. Verdict: Just about right, and could pay huge dividends next year.
18. Carlos Zambrano (r9p99) - A weird, weird season. The only problem here is the injury and whether the no-hitter may have really exacerbated it. But we should know that for sure by February and if all looks good, Zambrano's stuff makes him a solid top 20 pitcher. Verdict: A toss-up until we see how he holds up in the playoffs.
19. Yovani Gallardo (r9p101) - Far too early for a guy who still has yet to throw an entire major league season and is coming off injuries. Raw talent shouldn't get you much higher than the 12th round, where Liriano was generally taken last year. Verdict: Far too much risk for my liking, with many better options still available.
20. Rich Harden (r9p102) - Even if he exactly duplicates 2008's season--including the 140 IP--his absolutely disgusting numbers make this nothing but value. We've seen the upside and man, is it sweet. Verdict: Now that we know what he can do, he is well worth the risk and should have gone at least a round and five SPs earlier than this.
Another season in the books. Good luck in football and stay tuned for updated 2009 rankings as the offseason progresses.
Thank you everyone for tuning into our show, The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show. Myself, Todd "The True Guru" Farino, RC "The Numbers Don't Lie" Rizza, and Ryan Hallam will be back starting January 28th to give you another season of the best fantasy baseball advice on Blog Talk Radio. Join us along with other great minds of fantasy basebase who will make regular appearances and contribute information to the show that they specialize in.
Evan Dickens will be blogging on Fantasy Baseball Search all season and specializing in starting pitching. He will bring his expert knowledge and pinpoint sabermetric pitching statistics to find the best starting pitchers for 2009 all season long. He will also join us on the radio regularly to discuss starting pitchers and more.
Troy Patterson from Roto Savant will be our sabermetrics representative and make regular appearances on the show to give us fantasy advice from a Sabermetrics point of view. We will put this fantasy baseball philosophy to the test and Troy is the perfect guy for it. He also is a contributing writer to MLB Front Office.
SP WIRE PICKUPS: THE FINAL WEEK by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The final week is here, and if you haven't already turned your attention to fantasy football, you're probably in a dogfight for your baseball position. One win, or a few strikeouts, or even a point of ERA or WHIP could make the difference. It's not too late to pick off some sniper starts, and here are the Censor's five favorites for the coming week, from the pool of starters likely still on your league's wire:
Kyle Lohse - v. ARI, Tuesday
Lohse has been pitching nothing but solid over the last month, not giving up more than 3 ER in his last six starts with reasonable strikeout numbers. Last time he faced Arizona (on the road) he pitched six scoreless innings, and the lifeless deflated Arizona offense should be good for a Cardinal win in Busch. He'll also face Cincinnati at home the last day of the year if you still need IP.
Dave Bush - v. PIT, Tuesday
Bush's incredible home-road splits have regressed back to the mean over the last month, as his WHIP has trended up, but the Pirates are a below-average offense on the road and the Brewers will be in full contention mode.
Joe Blanton - v. WAS, Friday
Blanton told the world that he had fixed his mechanical problems early last week during a bullpen session, and it sure looked like it in his Saturday start at Florida. In the four starts before that, his ERA was higher than his K/9 which is never a good sign, but Blanton is a good pitcher pitching for a hot team with a home start against the abysmal Nationals. That's a recipe for a sniper start.
Randy Wolf - v. CIN, Wednesday
Wolf could be an incredible source of strikeouts against a young impatient offense. Four of his last five starts have been solid, and he has a very sturdy 4.2 K/BB rate in September. He's got momentum at exactly the right time for your fantasy team.
Jorge de la Rosa - @ SF, Thursday
Don't look now--De La Rosa has a 3.25 ERA in the second half. Now he gets a start at San Francisco, who he's already faced twice in the last month with great results: 13 IP, 2-0, 9 K, 1 ER, 1.00 WHIP. The Giants are not even putting their best lineup on the field these days, so this could be a real doozy for owners.
As we approach the final days of the fantasy season, here are some players that might still be available that can help you.
1. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants. I didn't get too excited about this guy when the Giants called him up, but he has hit nearly .340 since coming up with a few homers and 15 RBI. He should be catcher eligible, which could help, especially if you have missed out on some of the young catchers who have popped up this year. He won't carry you in any one category, but at this point of the season, he might be one of the better options available.
2. Johnathan Niese, New York Mets. Niese has only started twice in the majors, but his last one was a gem. Niese threw eight shutout innings and struck out seven against the Braves, so although the first one was ugly, he might be a decent spot starter when his next turn comes up. It is hard to say exactly how the Mets' rotation will shape up down the stretch, but he might be worth a start depending on the matchup.
3. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians. Choo has quietly been hitting up a storm in Cleveland in the second half, and perhaps he has gone unnoticed in your league. He did in most of mine. After hitting just three homers in various "cups of coffee" in the majors, Choo has 11 this season for the Indians. In the last 18 games, Choo has hit .435 with five homers and 16 RBI. I don't believe that he is a keeper, but he could really help your team down the stretch.
4. Taylor Teagarden, Texas Rangers. Every time he plays, it seems that Teagarden is making an impact. He has three homers in his last six games, including a grand slam. He has driven in eight runs over that span, as well, making a play to get himself regular playing time in 2009. It seems the organization is going away from Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so it seems it will either be Teagarden or Max Ramirez behind the plate for the Rangers next season.
5. Blake DeWitt, Los Angeles Dodgers. In his second stint in the majors, DeWitt is now playing second for the Dodgers in place of injured Jeff Kent. He has been struggling the past couple of days at the plate, but he has been pretty solid all season long. With the 2nd base position being incredibly thin, DeWitt could be a help if you lost Kinsler or have been struggling with this position all year long.
Five pieces of injury news that are relevant in the final weeks of fantasy baseball.
1. B.J. Upton has been out for about a week with a strained quad, and could be back in the lineup on Wednesday. He was rumored to be back in the lineup on Tuesday, but he did not play. He is really hurting his fantasy owners, but it looks like he should be back before the end of the week.
2. Carlos Guillen has had trouble with his back over the last few days, and the prognosis is cloudy. Some reports I have read say he could be back before the end of the week, while some say his season could be over. You have to just keep him on the bench until you see that he plays a game. This kind of situation is the most frustrating to a fantasy owner when it is so unclear what might happen.
3. If all goes well in a side session that he is throwing later in the week, Erik Bedard could be back pitching for the Mariners before the end of the year. This season has been an utter and total disaster for the Mariners and Bedard, and I'm not even sure you want to throw Bedard if he does come back to pitch in the last week.
4. Rick Ankiel has an abdominal injury that will require surgery, the only question is when he will have it. Doesn't seem that he will be playing much, if at all for the rest of the season, so you are probably best off to just leave him out of your lineup for the rest of the season. The Cardinals are fading out of contention, which leaves them no motivation to trot Ankiel out there at less than 100%.
5. Alex Gordon returned to the Royals lineup on Sunday and had three hits in his first two games back. Gordon has had another very disappointing season, and a lot of fantasy owners wondering if he will live up to his enormous potential. He could help your team if he was dropped when he went on the Disabled List.
Five pieces of fantasy news heading down the stretch
1. After waiting all season long, the Rays have finally called up David Price. Price pitched 5.1 innings in his first appearance out of the bullpen, allowing two runs, including a homer to Derek Jeter. It appears he will get the start on September 23rd, and he could definitely help you down the stretch. Keeper leagues, if he is somehow still available, please grab him right away. You won't be sorry.
2. Robinson Cano was sat in a game on Monday for a lack of hustle, and was 0-4 on Tuesday. He has been a large disappointment this season, especially after batting .258 right now after nearly winning a batting title just two seasons ago. Cano will fall down the 2nd base rankings for 2009. If you have him, you have to just play him this season and hope for the best, but he probably won't be that productive this season.
3. Max Scherzer is back in the Diamondback's rotation and he has been making the most of his opportunities. Scherzer has allowed just four runs over 11 innings in two starts and has struck out 20. He will most likely get a few more starts, so grab him if you can, and he is even keeper worthy in leagues where you keep over 10.
4. Carlos Zambrano threw a no hitter for the Cubs against the Astros in a "road' game in Milwaukee. It was shocking considering that he was missing time with an arm injury. Feel free to get him back in your lineup in the last two weeks of the season.
5. Francisco Rodriguez has broken the single season record for saves in a season when he recorded save number 58. K-Rod will be able to reach 60 before the end of the season, and perhaps put the record out of reach for good. He is playing for a contract this season, and expect him to be the highest paid closer in baseball history going into next season.
Visit www.fightingchancefantasy.com for all your fantasy needs. Email fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com with any question and I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
In a very exciting first round of the playoffs. This game was closer en the score allows, but Fantasy Baseball Geeks defeated Pro Fantasy Games 7-1 to move on. Sean Sultaire of Fantasy Baseball Games will now take on the division winner Fantasy Baseball Search for the West Division Championship.
Over in the East Division Junkyard Jake narrowing got past Geoff Stein of Mock Draft Central 5-4 making his case for one of the best comebacks all time for such a tough start. Our favorite to win was losing most of this week, but made a hard charge during the weekend swing to win it. He will face off against the East Division winner Roto Authority. That looks to be an awesome match up.
After Monday Fantasy Baseball Search 7 Fantasy Baseball Geeks 2
We are continuing with our review of our calls and picks for the 2008 fantasy baseball season.
In this post we will cover some of our top picks during the preseason. These were picks we made back in February armed only with stats, top secret information and a copy of the Colonel's famous receipt.
Jacoby Ellsbury - What more can you say about this guy. Unlike some other experts we knew he would be the starting CF in Boston and he hasn't disappointed. He did injure his wrist in early June derailing his to start. As he continues to adjust to pitching as all rookies do he will go through slumps. We called him our #1 sleeper and told everyone he's worth a 10th or 11th round draft pick. So far with 50+ stolen bases, 90 runs, 45 RBI, and 7 home runs I think he proved our point. He did disappoint us with his batting average, but we expect him to make adjustments and improve that next season and he matures.
Ryan Braun - We ranked him the 13th best player in fantasy baseball and he has not dissappointed us. It was even commented on our show by another expert that he could be the best overall fantasy baseball player and he did match up well against AROD who was the overall #1 pick.
Albert Pujols - Allot of experts got scared because of his bad elbow and ran away from this guy. Other followed that rush like a Wall St. crisis. The True Guru did not. After reading everything that was going on, we rated him #10 only because of concern. He will be the National League MVP.
Kevin Youkilis - We didn't rate him as high as he should have been, but we drafted him across the board and got a great value in him. He overwhelmed fantasy baseball with 29 home runs and 115 RBI. If you drafted him in the late rounds you got yourself a 2nd or 3rd round value pick.
Tim Lincecum - Yes we called this guy a sleeper. Why shouldn't we? e was on a terrible team and was coming off a 7-5 season witha 4.00 ERA. We saw last year that he had incredible pitches especially his fastball, but he lacked control of it. It was just a matter of time and he's looking for a Cy Young award this year.
Rich Harden - Another guy we liked, but fell because of injury. Our logic on him was, he has to have a healthy year at some point! Well he did and had a great season going 10-2 with 181 K's in 148 innings. Add in only 61 walks. Very good.
Kerry Wood - He knew he'd be the closer for the Cubs and not Marmol. There's 34 saves from your 16th round or later draft pick.
Hanley Ramirez - We rated him #2 overall and he outperformed Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, and Matt Holiday. We expected more stolen bases from him, but overall very good.
Grady Sizemore - We loved this guy coming in and knew he had 30/30 potential. We rated him #11 and he didn't let us down with 33 HRs and 38 SBs.
Francisco Rodriguez - We rated him the #1 closer and overall #19. Most experts would tell you to stay away from closers early, but we liked him too much with that improved Angels team. 62 saves and 77 K's proves his value.
Jon Lester - We rated him our #40 sleeper this season and he exceeded those expectations. 16-6, 125 Ks, and a low 3.21 ERA showed that is will now command respect next season.
Some other great preseason picks by The True Guru:
Brandon Lyon
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Alex Rios
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Beltran
We did have seom bad picks that we are not proud of. Here is a short list:
Well, this has been one heck of a tough year for me and my radio show with other personalities. I had some problems in the industry that I did not expect or see coming, but in contrast I also made many new friends with some wonderful websites. SO overall its been a great year.
One reason I made some people in the industry upset is I don't subscribe to the same old school philosophies that have guided the industry for years. That I not only use my own formula for success, but that I also use it in full view of the fantasy baseball community with huge success. I did this through blogs, radio shows, and an expert league. Another reason they may not be happy is the fact that I tell it like it is and I don't care much for unwritten rules or agreeing just to be nice. I've said all year, if you disagree with me come on my show to defend your ideas or prove it to me in a H2H expert league.
So the whole point on this diatribe is to discuss one of two issues that were brought up on my show and blogs several times through out the year and that is the question of LUCK. This was the topic of one argument between me and a former co host of The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show. To note, my former co host's managing philosophy is build completely around sabermetrics. Now there are many managers who believe in luck, and there are even several different ways they believe in it. Those ways can be injuries, breakout or unexpected performance, scoring points at the right time, or your player playing more or less then expected, etc...
For the most part as I've said on my shows, luck exists how my former co host would say "in a vacuum". You see luck effects every team nearly every day, so chalk it up no different then RSTLN E on Wheel Of Fortune (Those are the letters chosen so often for the grand prize game that Wheel Of Fortune ended up making them automatic and allowing the contestant to pick 4 more letters.)
Luck is automatic except in cases of injury where we call it "bad luck". Its as simple as that and anyone who argues it different cannot consider themselves a champion of this game. By no means can you assume and I mean making an ASS out of YOU and ME. That's right you cannot assume that a player is lucky for whatever reason or that one player had bad luck. That a pitcher who gives up 14 more home runs then the year before is bad luck or a hitter stealing 10 more bases good luck. Its just not.
Since we already established that it's automatic for everyone then we can accept that at one point or another we all have good and bad luck.
My thoughts are simple; there are skills, strategies, pinpoint perfect moves, but there is not bad luck. There are educated guesses, match ups at the wrong time, and breakout performances that ruin your week, but no such bad luck.
The people that crow the most about "luck" are followers of the Religion of Sabermatrics (ZALTAR!). This is an amazing breakthrough as a tool used to enhance scouting in MLB, but instead it has been transformed by fantasy experts and has replaced scouting in that arena. That is just not what its meant for.
The reason they cry "luck" more than anyone is they refuse to admit that there are serious flaws in their precious calculations and that sabermetrics can and often does fail. Therefore it becomes their answer to something sabermetrics could not explain. It must be luck.
Let's see if this works in other professions:
Well, I don't know how it happened, but with some good luck I managed to give you a heart transplant.
I don't know why she died. I guess I was having bad luck cause my CPR didn't save her.
I got a "F" on my exam BAD LUCK!
OK, you all get it. Its an excuse because they can't explain what happened. The difference in statisticians, voyeurs, scouting experts, gut guys, and other experts don't have that problem nearly as often if ever. We analyze actual data or film and make expert decisions. We don't plug numbers into a formula and draft a team based on a few percentages and formulas.
So when you hear about "luck" from a sabermetrics expert know that what he is actually telling you is, "I can't explain why that happened GOOD LUCK OR BAD LUCK.
Here are some 2008 Examples that sabermetric experts would attribute luck too:
Gavin Floyd - He was lucky Xavier Nady - He was lucky Jose Reyes - He was unlucky Jacoby Ellsbury - He was lucky
(Trust me there are many more)
To wrap this up, I hope I've made my point clear that using luck outside of injuries is a weak excuse and if the experts that you take advice from whip out luck as an excuse because what they said didn't happen, walk away and go towards the light of an expert who explains luck rather than use it to hide their flaws and mistakes..
I promise The True Guru doesn't believe in luck like that, just winning.
I have to say this has been an outstanding 1st annual expert league held at Fantasy Baseball Search. Throughout the season we did lose 3 experts for a variety of reasons, but lives change and we roll with the bounces. One of the teams was replaced in April due to lack of being an actual expert and his replacement Chris Farino from Pro Fantasy Games went on to finish in third place in the West division and is now in the playoffs.
There was some drama during the season like most leagues, but all-in-all it was a fun year to play against these outstanding experts.
Before we get to the playoffs I want to say that there were several reasons for hosting and playing in this expert league. We all give great advice on players and strategies, but how is the actual reader/listener suppose to know who are the best experts for them? Every expert is a little different. They depend on similar, but different philosophies to generate their projections and to find the players they think will lead a team to victory.
I though that a benchmark should set to determine if an expert is truly an expert or he is just not as good as he thinks. We all claim championships in unknown leagues that nobody sees, but I think its fair to assume that the readers/listeners want to know if the advice we give not only applies to us, but is proven to win. The benchmark was a 12-team expert league and H2H rotisserie to boot. Meaning that every week was a different strategic match up against a different expert. There can be no excuses. Once the season is over we will cover more on how some of the experts stacked up.
The playoffs are here and we will crown our first champion for the FBSEL. The six teams that made the playoffs are without a doubt 6 of the most outstanding experts in the industry and survived a long hard season to get there.
In the West Division, my team Fantasy Baseball Search won the division and also claimed the best record overall and the best overall expert vs. expert record at 17-5-1.
Sean Sultaire from Fantasy Baseball Geeks finished in second place in the division and second place in overall expert vs. expert match ups at 16-7. Pro Fantasy Games grabbed the final playoff spot in the West Division and won 9 expert vs. expert match ups and 112 games overall.
In the East Division, Tim Dierkes from Roto Authority had an amazing season winning his division by 25 games, gathering 137 total wins and 15 expert vs. expert wins.
RC Rizza from Junkyard Jake who had a rough start to the season and was left for dead by one of the former hosts of my radio show came on to dominate the East Division and show why he is the real deal. Junkyard Jake finished with the most wins (114) outside of a division winner and 11 expert vs. expert wins.
He will play Geoff Stein from Mock Draft Central who played with a strategy that most experts including the same one dogging RC found unorthodox and painfully bad. I liked the strategy and it earned him a playoff spot. Geoff powered his way to this spot with 109 wins and 10 expert vs. expert wins.
So there it is. Pro Fantasy Games vs. Fantasy Baseball Geeks and Mock Draft Central vs. Junkyard Jake. Keep checking our blog. We have much more analysis of how all the experts did and if your favorite expert still deserves that title. We will also analyze the league as a whole.
Good Luck Playoff teams. Not to much, I'm in the playoffs as well.
WATCHING THE WIRE by Evan "the Censor" Dickens It's likely, with more pitchers getting shut down daily, that many of us looking to max out innings will be trolling the starting pitcher waiver wire. It's likely that if you sort by whatever ranking function your engine uses for available SPs, you'll see these five guys at or near the top. Here's the Censor's advice on whether they're worth a roster spot for the last month. Kyle Lohse Season: 182.0 IP, 13-6, 106 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP Last 30 days: 37.1 IP, 0 W, 28 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP After a rough August, Lohse looked like he found his form again on Wednesday versus the Diamondbacks, tying a season high with seven strikeouts. His growth this season has been impressive in two areas: the decline in flyball rate (a career-low 32%) and the sharp decline in walk rate (a career low 2.18 BB/9). At the same time, although K/9 rate for the season is still below his career average, it has been steadily increasing over the last two months. The 29-year-old has the Cubs twice, Pittsburgh on the road, and Arizona at home, and although the start at Wrigley is troubling, those looking for innings and ERA help will find Lohse a wise sniper start candidate. Jesse Litsch Season: 143.2 IP, 10-8, 71 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP Last 30 days: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 12 K, 0.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP You can't ask for a four-start streak better than Litsch's--and against four fairly scary opponents at that. However, the streak brings some concern. In all four games, Litsch threw more than 103 pitches, which he had only done twice the entire season previously. His walk rate also has crept up since his return to the majors, and he still brings no strikeouts to the table--less than 4.0 K/9 over this streak is just too scary to justify a fantasy spot. Litsch doesn't throw a pitch faster than 90 mph and doesn't have the selection ability of a Buehrle or Glavine to make that work consistently. His next three starts are Boston twice and at Chicago, so it's best to let him go and see how he does leading into the final weekend at Baltimore. He may be worth a final sniper start in that situation. Yusmeiro Petit Season: 52.1 IP, 3-4, 41 K, 3.44 ERA, 0.86 WHIP Last 30 days: 22.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP Petit's last start, Tuesday against the Cardinals, made him look like a young, HR-prone pitcher who hadn't pitched for ten days, which was exactly what he was. Although his offspeed stuff can be effective at times and his control stats are very strong, his GB/FB rate is a very disconcerting 0.68 and his BABIP is a disgustingly lucky .196. His schedule, which includes a matchup with Tim Lincecum and a date with Coors Field, is not in his favor and the Diamondbacks are always prone to skip him in the rotation anyway. Don't be too eager to jump on him. Braden Looper Season: 174.0 IP, 12-11, 87 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP Last 30 days: 39.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP There's very little to like about Looper. The strikeout rate is much too low, the complete absence of a changeup or curveball leaves his arsenal too limited, and he is already at his career high for IP in his second season as a starter. Looper has gone 7+ innings in seven of his last eight starts, but will only strike out three or four in a given start and is prone to frequent disasters. He is only worth consideration in great matchups in very deep or NL-only leagues. Nick Blackburn Season: 169.2 IP, 9-8, 86 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP Last 30 days: 29.2 IP, 0 W, 15 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Why would I dig on Looper and then recommend Blackburn, who appears to have a very similar line? For one thing, the schedule is much more favorable for Blackburn, who gets Kansas City (potentially twice) and Baltimore. But Blackburn's variety of pitches is what has helped him avoid anything that could be considered a disaster start since June. He throws a changeup that is a full 10mph slower than his fastball, which is an elite speed gap. He doesn't walk anyone and his GB/FB rate has stayed above 1.20 all season. Blackburn isn't going to carry anyone's team and shouldn't be used if you're close to your innings max and need strikeouts, but there's no reason he should be on the wire in standard leagues.
THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten Starting Pitchers, version 3 by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
Our updated rankings show an even greater jam-up in the top ten, as 2008 continues to be one of the most impressive years for starting pitching since the prime of Pedro, Clemens, and Big Unit. As an example--last year Brandon Webb and John Lackey tied for second in the majors with a 3.01 ERA. This year, the 3.01 of Cole Hamels is only good enough for tenth! If someone sneezes, everyone from #2 to #8 could be shuffled in a completely different order at this point. The starting pitcher renaissance continues and the Censor couldn't be happier.
Here's the latest SP 2009 rankings. Statistics are through games of 9/1/08.
1. Johan Santana - K/9 over last three starts is back above 10--however, WHIP is also an eyebrow-raising 1.32.
2. Jake Peavy - Slowly losing value as San Diego consistently fails him--19 IP, 22 K, 7 ER, zero wins in last three starts.
3. Brandon Webb - Can't overtake Peavy with his Sunday disaster, and in fact may be in real danger of losing the Cy Young to...
4. CC Sabathia - Just that close to leaping up to #2 with his no-hitter (yes, that's what it was). His second-half story is sensational.
5. Tim Lincecum (+1) - Frankly I wouldn't argue with him being the second pitcher taken. He has the major league strikeout lead despite pitching 25 fewer innings than Sabathia.
6. Roy Halladay (-1) - SportingNews.com ranks him as the #1 fantasy player in 2008. He's a first-rounder in AL-only leagues next year if Sabathia signs in the NL (which is the likely scenario).
7. Cliff Lee - Question answered: no one left with properly firing synapses doesn't realize Cliff Lee is the real deal. Keep betting against him and I'll keep collecting. He's a fifth-rounder next year barring a (unlikely) September swoon.
8. Rich Harden - A season ERA now below 2.00 and an 11.5 K/9 rate are so sick, but keep in mind Harden still may not hit 150 IP for the season.
9. Cole Hamels (+1) - Don't forget the quietest pitching stat--Hamels leads all starters in WHIP with a sick 1.03 and his offspeed pitches seem to keep getting better.
10. Dan Haren (-1) - Has a lot to prove in September on a shaky Diamondbacks team that should be better than it is.
The Next Ten
11. Scott Kazmir 12. Chad Billingsley 13. Ryan Dempster (+1) 14. Carlos Zambrano (-1) 15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (+2) 16. Ben Sheets 17. John Lackey (-2) 18. Ervin Santana (+1) 19. James Shields (-1) 20. Erik Bedard (NR)
Dropped out: Josh Beckett
(all comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com)
