Five Players--San Diego Padres

Five players from the Padres.

Patrick has asked me to finish up the Five Players series, as he is going to be unavailable for the next couple of days. So up now are the Padres, a team with a nice group of interesting players to check out.

Kevin Kouzmanoff As strong a breakout choice as any, Kouz had a big 2nd half in '07, posting a .288 xBA, increasing his power, and dramatically improving his contact rate. I've been hearing that he is slated to hit 3rd, which would sandwich him between Iguchi and A-Gonz, with Brian Giles' still solid OBP leading off. He still needs to improve his walk rate, as it was only 6% last year, as well as his BB/K ratio, which was only .34. Other than that, with a career OPS of .949 in the minors, I really like him this year, but somehow didn't end up with him on any of my 4 teams (I usually drafted Blalock instead).

Scott Hairston It seems like he's been a prospect forever, but it looks like he'll finally be getting a chance at full-time ABs this year starting in LF (CF while Edmonds is out). He has good power, posting consistent PXs in the 120-130 range the last 4 years, improved his walk rate in '06 to a solid 9%, and maintained that last season, has a little speed, and makes decent enough contact. With PETCO holding back his power, it'll be tough for him to have too much mixed league value, but he's an excellent "sleeper" (man, I'm starting to hate that word) in NL-Only leagues.

Randy Wolf I've drafted him too many times to remember, but this year he's an intriguing pick. He's coming off shoulder surgery and he's never been a model of health, but IF he's 100%, he's one heck of a buy, being that he's probably not being drafted in many mixed leagues. Before going down last year, he was posting his best K/9 since 2001 of 8.2 and also his lowest FB% over the last 4 years. He's still a FB to neutral pitcher, though, so PETCO is the perfect park for him. If healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see an ERA under 4 with a nice strikeout total.

Trevor Hoffman In what might come as a surprise, there is a real possibility that Trevor Hoffman loses his job this season. Hoffman's xERA was 4.44 last year, compared to his actual of 2.98, while his K/9 dropped for the 4th straight year to below 7 and his BB/9 increased to over 2 for the first time in 4 years. He's become an extreme FB pitcher the last couple of seasons, which serves him well in PETCO, but even that park isn't big enough for Hoffman to continue posting the 2% HR/F rate he had last year. He's 40 years old and Heath Bell was absolutely dominant last year, with all the peripherals to back up the surface stats. It's possible he hangs on to the job all year, but he could take a real ERA/WHIP hit and I'd be avoiding him in drafts.

Chase Headley Had a huge year at AA last year, posting a 1.017 OPS and 74 walks in 529 ABs. He did only have 20 HRs and Deric McKamey in the Baseball Forecaster notes that he's more of a doubles hitter. Unfortunately for Headley, Bill James' '05-'07 park factors show PETCO as by far the worst park for doubles, with only a 75 index, which means it deflates doubles by 25%. Headley was also 23 already when he posted that AA line, which isn't exactly young for the league, and he greatly benefitted from a .411 BABIP which of course is completely unsustainable. He should be a solid player for the Pads, but I don't think he'll ever become a star and I'm not too excited about his Roto prospects. Of course I would have to revisit that last assertion if he was traded to a team in a better hitting environment.

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