Article from: Fantasy Sports Experience Some kids and veterans on the comeback trail make for an exciting Week 9 adds list. SP- Clayton Kershaw The young lefty with a curveball nick named, "Public Enemy #1" had a successful first start against the Cardinals going 6 innings with 7Ks and a WHP of 1.00. He has a fastball that he throws for strikes in the mid 90's both up and down in the zone. When you combine that with a devestating curveball that is clocked roughly 25 MPH slower, it can make for long days for opposing hitters. The Dodgers will be very careful with him and he is another great sell high candidate. He will be limited in the amount of innings the Dodgers allow him to throw this season because they want to protect his golden arm from injury.FSE VERDICT- If for some reason he is still available in your league or on waivers you need to put in a claim and grab him immediately. He has special stuff that can dominate a line up and win a game on his own. He can help your team in many aspects of the game and will immediately improve any pitching staff, no matter how good. Just be careful and sell high in mid-July. I doubt he'll be getting the ball in September, and if he does itwill be as a reliever so they can limit the innings on his arm. SP- Doug Davis The veteran has been around for years now, and with the exception of 2005 has never done anything to warrant serious fantasy ownership. This season might be a little different for Doug for a variety of reasons.First off he will no longer be featured near the top of the D-Backs rotation. With Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Micah Owings, and a healthy Randy Johnson (for now anway), Davis does not have to be counted on to carry the team or match up against the ace of other teams. He will now see better match ups against the opposition's 4th or 5th starters.Another reason to like Davis is because the D-Backs are scoring a ton of runs and playing good defense. Better run support will help Davis stay in games and potentially put up a solid win total. He has 15Ks in 16.2IP this season and while the WHIP is a bit high, it is nothing to get too concerned about as it is near consistent with what Davis has done in the past.FSE VERDICT- Don't expect a Cy Young award, but if you need the help with Ks and Wins, Davis could be a solid addition. Don't think I am trying to play up the "comeback from thyroid cancer" aspect either. He can do somethings out there and might actually surprise you. SP- Bartolo Colon The Red Sox took their time with Colon, giving him plenty of time to rehab and get his arm in good shape. His first start off the DL ended with a W and 4Ks in 5IP. He touched 96 on the gun, and is a two start pitcher for week 9. His first start on Monday he went 7IP and gave up 5 hits to go along with only one walk and 4Ks. What's not to love?For one Colon was playing the Royals and the Mariners respectively who have both been starved for offense for the majority of the season. At the same time, he did beat both teams and in reality, these are the teams that he should be beating.FSE VERDICT- I am seriously beginning to believe that the Red Sox aren't expecting anything from Curt Schilling this season, making Colon all the more valuable to the Sox. They will be careful with him and baby him through some starts. With the Red Sox potent offense you can expect very good run support. On the other hand the bullpen outside of Papelbon has been up and down all year, and if Colon is only going 5-6innings a start, he is leaving a lot of outs on the field for the pen to pick up.All that being said, he is worth the add if you need another starting pitcher. Another good suggestion, would be to then sell high near the end of June. Pitchers who are overweight and oft injured generally don't hold up too well down the stretch. SP- Jason Bergmann He was lit up early in the season and sent to AAA to get himself right. Since returning, he has been solid, going 7 shutout innings in each of his last two starts and combined for 14Ks in that time. Bergmann doesn't walk many guys and now that he is limiting the hits he gives up, he has seriously reduced the damage done against him.The Nats' righty is another two start candidate in week 9 but faces tough match ups against Milwaukee and Arizona.FSE VERDICT- Personally, I would grab him now. However, you should be able wait this week out. Bergmann pitches in relative obscurity in Washington, so he should go under the radar for a bit longer. Don't blame me if he tosses a gem and gets scooped up before you have the chance to.
We’re almost two months into the season and it’s time to evaluate if your draft day investments are paying off or if it’s simply time to cut your losses on an investment gone bad. Anyone who has ever played the stock market and thought, “it’s too good of a stock to not bounce back”, and then waited too long before seeing that investment become equivalent to a Schwinn bike knows the lesson. It’s time to identify which players are not going to fulfill their original value and decide to either cut, trade or relegate to the bench before their lack of production negatively compounds to the point of no return for your team. The time wasted waiting for a player to “get hot” or “come around” could cost you a free agent pick-up or trade opportunity. Obviously, every league’s rules on roster size, bench depth and number of teams will depend on player value, so with that in mind, here is our list of players to decide on before it’s too late:
Catcher Josh Bard, SD – Now on the DL, Bard had a dreadful .200 average to go along with no homers and just 7 RBIs in 130 ABs. Even when he returns, he will share time with Michael Barrett. Seek to: CUT
First Base Todd Helton, COL – Once a triple crown threat, Helton does not excel in any category anymore except for drawing walks. His power numbers have suffered a 50% drop from 2003 to 2007, but was still able to keep his average above .300. Now hitting just .275, his production for a first baseman should make you look elsewhere. Seek to: TRADE OR BENCH
Jason Giambi, NYY – A recent spurt has raised his average to just .216, with 8 homers. His best days are behind him so do not expect him to help your team due to his long slumps, low batting average and occasional time sharing. Seek to: TRADE OR BENCH
Second Base Luis Castillo, NYM – In his best days he was a .300 hitter with the ability to steal 30-50 bases. Now he’s a .260 slap hitter with his speed greatly decreased from two knee surgeries. There should be better options available on your free agent list. Seek to: CUT
Freddy Sanchez, PIT – He won the NL batting title in 2006 hitting .344, dropped to .304 last season and is now batting just .254. With no power, speed or ability to draw walks (only 7 so far), he’s probably killing your team. Seek to: CUT
Shortstop Derek Jeter, NYY – His HR totals have declined 3 consecutive years, but the stat which stands out even more is his lack of stolen bases (only 2 this season). He’ll still hit for a solid average in the .300 range but he’s on pace for a career low in BBs. His name value carries more cache than his stats. Seek to: TRADE
Edgar Renteria, DET – His speed has perennially put him among the stolen base leaders, elevating his ranking among fantasy shortstops. But only 1 SB and just five doubles should give you an indication of a player who’s best days are behind him. Seek to: TRADE
According to many scouts, Bruce is baseball's #1 prospect, and it's hard to argue with this evaluation when he is currently tearing up the triple-A league with a .369 average to go along with 10 HR's and 8 stolen bases in 45 games. The Reds are fairly deep in the outfield with Adam Dunn, Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel and Ken Griffey Jr., so it may take a trade for Bruce to see regular playing time, but he is worth picking up anyway, just in case the Reds do the right thing and start rebuilding this year.
Available in 46% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Chris Perez, St.Louis Cardinals, RP
In between occasional physical breakdowns, Jason Isringhausen has been one of baseballs most reliable closers. This season however, Isringhausen has been about as predictable as Britney Spears trying to parallel park her Hummer on Whilshire Blvd. Izzy's latest meltdown involved a scuffle with a TV set in Tony LaRussa's office and a trip to the DL with a hand injury. Chris Perez, with a fastball that has been clocked at 97-100 mph, is considered the future closer for the Cardinals, and the future may be coming up soon. Perez was very impressive in the minors, amassing 55 saves over the past three years with 1.3 K's per inning.
Available in 81% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers, SP
You are probably tired of hearing about Clayton Kershaw, the mythical prospect that the Dodgers keep threatening to bring up from their minor league system. Well, his long-awaited callup is expected to happen this week, and we will finally see how the highly-regarded 2006 1st round left-hander handles major-league hitters. It's a good bet that Kershaw has a very bright future ahead of him, as he is a rare lefty that can throw consistently in the mid-90's and he has a amazing curveball that can pick your pocket, pull a $20 from your wallet, return two five's and a roll of quarters, and then still land over the plate for a called strike three.
Available in 56% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates, 1B
Many fantasy teams gave up on Laroche during his injury-plagued April, but he is a fairly solid option at 1st base who could easily deliver 25 HR's and 100 RBI. Remember, he has been a notoriously slow-starter his entire career who seemingly doesn't start hitting until the summer months. In 2006, he batted .200 in April, but had an amazing July and August where he batted .357 with 14 HRs. It was the same story in 2007, when he hit an embarrassing .133 in April, then cranked it up during July and August with a .336 average and 10 homers.
Available in 53% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Jose Guillen, KC Royals, OF/DH
Guillen had a dreadful April, hitting .192, but he has wielded a potent bat lately with a .352 average and 18 RBI's during the month of May. At 32, Guillen is not a young lad, but he is the most frequent #4 hitter in the Royals lineup, and it helps that the Royals use him in the DH spot a couple times week, giving him some time-off from fielding wear and tear. He is certainly not the type of player that will carry your team, but you can probably expect around a .285 average, 25 HRs and 95 RBIs, which isn't bad if your current fantasy outfield consists of Andruw Jones, Emil Brown and Austin Kearns.
Available in 44% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Other Players To Consider: Shane Victorino,Philadelphia Phillies,OF Available in 33% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Akinori Iwamura,Tampa Bay Rays,2B Available in 52% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Taylor Buchholz,Colorado Rockies,RP Available in 91% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh Pirates,SP Available in 59% of all CBSSportsline leagues. Billy Butler,KC RoyalsDH/1B Available in 51% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
I found this great article on pitcher streaming from KFFL written by Michael Egnak and edited by Nicholas Minnix.
One of the great things about fantasy baseball is the endless number of strategies owners can attempt in an effort to win year after year. One such strategy is streaming starting pitchers, where an owner constantly hits the waiver wire to pick up the best pitcher, or pitchers, starting in an upcoming timeframe. While this practice can be effective, it can also prove to be disastrous in the long run depending on a league's format and settings. Fantasy baseball players, particularly those looking for an edge, want to know how and when to use this approach. There are two things fantasy owners should know first, though: 1) Streaming is a plan that is best concocted before the draft, and 2) Streaming may not win fantasy owners a ton of friends, especially in head-to-head leagues.
If a one plans to stream pitchers, one ideally would draft a team loaded with stud closers and stud hitters. This allows one to employ the strategy to its utmost potential. With a team like that, though, it's easy to make enemies. Many fantasy owners view this practice as unethical because the streamer is taking advantage of the rules (or lack thereof) and is not "playing fairly." They often don't want to devote the time it takes to stream. The ethics of streaming are for another place and time; it's up to the league to decide whether streaming is allowed, and the fairest way to do that is to enact rules that discourage it.
Rotisserie leagues In roto leagues, owners should only consider using streaming pitchers if there is no maximum innings limit for your league's settings. With no innings limit, a team can throw pitcher after pitcher into the lineup to build up strikeouts and wins. This can help a fantasy team reach the top in those two particular categories.
However, this style of play does have risks associated with it. The pitchers that tend to be used in this strategy are usually on the waiver wire for a reason, whether it is because of high WHIPs and ERAs or because they are frustratingly inconsistent from start to start. As a result, using these pitchers can wreak havoc on your fantasy team's WHIP and ERA over the course of the season; that, of course, can potentially cause a team to finish in the lower half in both categories. With this in mind, owners have to consider what the better option is. Streaming pitchers can essentially balance itself out for a team, with the advantage of high strikeouts and wins being negated by a poor WHIP and ERA. The depth of the league along with the quality of the pitchers available on the wire play a big role in whether streaming is beneficial.
For rotisserie leagues that have an innings limit, streaming pitchers really should be reconsidered. While the team streaming pitchers may be leading in strikeouts and wins now, they could find themselves back in the middle of the pack or worse once August rolls around. Strikeout rate is the biggest factor in winning the strikeouts category in fantasy baseball leagues with innings limits. If an owner is a streaming a player with a low strikeout rate, the owner is merely taking innings away from another pitcher with a better one.
In order to stream pitchers most effectively in rotisserie leagues with an innings limit, owners need to be more selective with the starters they throw into the lineup. One way to maximize strikeouts and win potential is to stick with pitchers who have only the most favorable matchups. This can also help a team maintain a respectable WHIP and ERA at the same time. Teams with poor offenses (the San Francisco Giants, for example), especially those that strike out a lot (i.e., the San Diego Padres), make for great streaming matchups. Keep your eye on team stats to determine the best matchups going.
Being quick on the waiver wire for prospects with great potential also can be helpful. However, there is inherent risk with inexperienced pitchers, so make sure you do your research on them.
Head-to-head leagues
In head-to-head leagues, the streaming strategy can be used much more successfully. There is usually no innings limit in head-to-head formats, so teams can go for as many starts possible in any given week. Fantasy owners can load up on hurlers with two starts for the upcoming week or pick up the best available starters every day; then, they can try to dominate strikeouts and wins. With the streaming team gaining an immediate advantage in two pitching categories, it just needs to take a few hitting categories to steal a cheap win most weeks.
The best part is that there's a chance for the team using streaming pitchers to take ERA and WHIP as well. The team with what might be a more solid pitching staff may be forced to use its better pitchers regardless of whom they face or where they pitch in order to compete. Meanwhile, the team streaming pitchers can pick and choose from those with better matchups. The chance of winning ERA and WHIP is much greater in shallow leagues, though, because as the player pool becomes emptier, the quality goes down considerably.
The problem with using this approach in head-to-head leagues is that the more consistent pitchers are already owned, so the pitchers left on the waiver wire are usually pitchers with poor WHIPs and ERAs. It also won't help that when streaming pitchers in this format, there's a chance that the better starters that are thrown back will get picked up by someone else. With this in mind, the trick to using this tactic in head-to-head formats is to use as few roster spots as possible - one or two, ideally - to stream pitchers. Keeping the more consistent starters allows for some stability, and streaming only the better pitchers with the best matchups should give boosts in strikeouts and wins.
Summary
Now that the advantages and disadvantages of streaming pitchers have been noted, it's time to decide if this is the strategy for you. Obviously if you're the type of fantasy owner who likes stability on your team, this approach won't sit well for you; it might not sit well with your fellow owners, either. Streaming pitchers means you have to be quick on the waiver wire on a daily basis. It not only means that fantasy player has to be able to recognize who is currently on a hot streak but also who has favorable matchups.
For those who are confident in their ability to make the right calls week after week, this strategy could prove fruitful. It allows owners to focus on grabbing the best, most consistent hitters in an effort to dominate the offensive categories. Then they can use streaming in an attempt to finish in the upper half, at least, in most of the pitching categories, or to win a majority of head-to-head categories each week. If successful, it could mean a high finish in the standings come September.
Mitchell report Changes Baseball as we once knew it
Today I am going to throw my hat in the ring just once about the Mitchell Report and how it has changed baseball.
I hope I am not telling you something you didn't already know by mentioning that there were more than just those who named in the report using banned substances. There were the players who were making sure there wasn't a trail leading back to them. So how does this all relate to baseball today; simply but, besides pitching being down, a staggering stat I heard on ESPN shows that MLB is in line to fall some 1000 (one THOUSAND) homers short of the total of the 06 season. Coincidence, I think not.
We all love to see one jacked out of the park and fantasy owners are relying on their studs to do just that. What the report has done is scared those not named and using, straight. Now, it is for the good of the human being not to use. Although ball players do not use to the same extent as professional wrestlers, 64 wrestlers have died in the last 10 years before the age of 50 for many different reasons. Of those 45 who wrestled in WrestleMania VI (1990) 12 have past on. Substances being banned from sport does lessen some numbers (such as homers), but the health of the athlete has to be taken into the forefront, and with everyone on a level playing field the true gifted athletes who have not been using in the past will still get their numbers and once again reign supreme.
I don't want to get into name calling, but let’s just say that the homer title set by Roger Maris (61) will be tough to reach for even anyone in the coming future.
So, in fantasy today I think we all need to re-direct our focus on the RBI's and other stats and stop trying to find the next great HOMER KING. As of Tuesday May 15th and after the first quarter of the season Carlos Quenten is the home run leader in the American League with 10 Homers; while 5 others have 8. In the National league you have Lance Berkman and Chase Utley with 14 Homers and 4 others with 10 or more. A lot of teams are trying to blame the weather, but with the number of warm weather cities and domes you would think that you would have more than 4 players with more than 7 homers after 40 games.
So, when it comes to free agency, look for players that are hitting consistently and driving in runs. As for pitchers, there have been a lot of surprises and this is where you really have to watch who is getting pulled up from the triple A teams and who have been finding the strike zone with regularity.
I do realize that I might have stepped on a few toes and not everyone will agree with me here, but I must bring these staggering stats of this year’s lack of productivity to everyone’s attention so that we can hit the free agent market looking for what will best serve us to win week after week.
There were three first basemen taken early in most drafts, all coming off a huge 2007 season. All three have been disappointing and inconsistent to this point in mid May. Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena are the three sluggers in this debate and the questions which we'd like to know the answers to are:
1. Which one is most likely to breakout and play to expectations? 2. Which one is most likely to continue struggling and miss expectations?
Ryan Howard: While his 9 HRs are okay, it only projects to 33 for this season. That's a huge droppoff from his 47 and 58 homer tallies of 2007 and his MVP 2006 season. What is far more concerning is MLB record strikeout pace and his horrid .188 batting average. The one positive to look is the fact that he hit 10 homers in both June and July last year after a slow start and a DL stint.
Prince Fielder: While his 2008 line of 5-23-.255 is not terrible, it's far off his monstrous 2007 season of 50-119-.288. Much has been made of his conversion to a vegetarian, but he still physically looks like a power hitter to me. Last season his best month was May, with 13 dingers, but he has only 1 so far this month. In addition, in his 141 at bats so far, he has only 7 doubles.
Carlos Pena: Coming off a career year of 46-121-.281, there were many skeptics who doubted whether Pena could repeat those numbers. Fantasy owners would've been happy for something close to that, but his number to this point are only 8-20-.211, which would put him on pace for 30 homers and 77 RBIs. Not bad, but also below expectations. Last season he had 10 homers in April and May combined, so maybe he's just a slow starter. His power stroke was consistent the rest of the way, with 7 in June, 8 in July, 8 in August, and finishing big in September, belting 13.
Which one of these three will come the closest to meeting expectations? Which one will be the biggest disappointment?
The Reds 9-0 trouncing of the Cubs on Wednesday was the coming out party for one super prospect, Joey Votto, and the continued domination of another, Edinson Volquez.Votto crushed 3 homers, to bring his season total up to 7, to go along with 18 RBIs and a .302 average. He is showing fantasy owners who drafted him that the pre-season hype is not unwarranted. And while Dusty Baker continues to give Scott Hatteberg occasional starts, (stealing at bats from Votto), it won't be long before he's playing everyday as the Reds will be in a fight to stay in the wild card race.Volquez has baffled NL hitters all season, and has now improved his record to 5-1, to go along with a Bob Gibson-like ERA of 1.06. He fanned 10 Cubs over 7 innings and probably would have had a chance for a complete game if his pitch count was not at 118 - the total elevated by 6 free passes. Volquez' incredible start is close to making MLB history. He has had 7 consecutive starts allowing only one earned run or less to start the season. Only Mike Norris of the 1980 Oakland A's has more, with 8 at the start of a season.Both Votto and Volquez are players who should not be in the sell high category, as is commonly done in the fantasy world after extreme statistical performances . Their well touted ablities are on full display now and there may be not be a peak for quite a while. If you can find a way to get them, do so. If you already have either one, ride the wave of the Killer V's. Click Here to post a comment on this article in the Fantasy Experts' Forum
Given the struggles/injuries to Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, the Yankees were basically forced to give Kei Igawa another shot at the majors (not to mention his huge contract).Well, Igawa was back to his old major league self on Friday, as he got spanked around again.Igawa lasted just three innings, gave up 11 hits, six runs and didn't strike anyone out.Do not touch Igawa if he was the last pitcher on Earth.
40+ year old Tigers pitcher Kenny Rogers was a little bit more than serviceable for the fourth consecutive start.During this time, Rogers hasn't given up more than three runs, and has run his record up to 3-3.It would take either a 16 or more team league, or a desperate injury situation before I picked up Kenny Rogers though.
From the very old to the very young,Brewers' rookie Manny Parra has moved to the land of the unownable (is that a word?).Parra has still yet to get through more than 5.1 innings, and has yet to give up less than two runs.He needs to show any sign of consistency before you can even think about adding him to your roster.Continue to monitor Parra, but if he keeps pitching like this, he should spend the whole year on the waiver wire.
After a really tough start, it looks like Ted Lilly is back to the form he showed in 2007.Lilly threw his fourth straight start in which he allowed three runs or less, and today he struck out ten batters in just seven innings.If he happened to be dropped in your league, definitely find a way to get Lilly on your roster in most traditional leagues.
For the second time in three starts, James Shields threw a shutout tonight.Of course he threw a total stinker out in the start between the shutouts, but he is absolutely a must start every time out.Tonight was his best start yet, as he allowed only one hit.Shields is keeping the strikeout level in the ball park of one per inning, and is turning himself into a top 20 pitcher.
Jimmy Rollins made the most of his return to the Phillies lineup Friday night, as he hit his third homer of the season.I'm not breaking any news here, but the reigning MVP needs to get immediately back into your lineup now that he is off of the DL.
Mariners 1B Richie Sexson was hit with a six game suspension after he charged the mound and threw his helmet at the opposing pitcher.Sexson is appealing the suspension, and was in the starting lineup on Friday.This shouldn't be big fantasy news, Sexson lost his fantasy appeal years ago.
C.C. Sabathia has now thrown four straight impressive starts.Ok, there was a four earned run game, but in that one he was cruising until he had just had one bad inning.Sabathia struck out nine in just seven innings, while giving up just one run.Even with this good start, his ERA is still 6.55, however, that is way down from the 13.50 it peaked at.Sabathia will go back to being a top ten pitcher after his horrible start.
For the second time in three games Alex Gordon has left the yard.Gordon is looking to improve on his disappointing rookie season, and for the most part he is doing that.After having his average around the .230-.240 range in 2007, Gordon is hitting nearly .290 in 2008 with now five homers and nearly 20 RBI.I believe it will be 2009 before Gordon realizes the potential numbers that have been thrown out there for him as his ceiling, but he should have a very respectable 2008.Look for .285, 23 HRs, and 85 RBI.
Rangers' rookie Brandon Boggs has been impressive since he was called to the majors.Boggs did hit 19 HRs in just 104 games in AA in 2007, so he has some pop, but he isn't listed as one of the top few prospects for the Rangers.In 11 games for the Rangers, Boggs is hitting .385 with two homers and eight RBI.If you have an empty or unproductive roster spot, you can give him a chance, but don't expect too much and you won’t be disappointed.
Oh, my, Lance Berkman is a man possessed.As of right now Berkman is 2-2, raising his average to .378 and hit his 14th double and 12th HR of the year.He is exceeding his expectations by so much it is ridiculous.Berkman is capable of 40 homers, and it looks like this season he may approach that number.
As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
Ok, I think I finally figured out what this melee is all about. Forget the differences on closers or hitters between industry experts. It is really much deeper than that. What I have figured out is something we all already knew, that each "Expert" has their own philosophy. I took this one step further and examined the several different philosophies and broke it down into to groups; The Strategists and The House Rules. Its really that simple and I will explain.
If anyone doesn't know, the term "house rules" is famous from Las Vegas and describes the gambling rules and philosophies for playing in the casinos, hence the house rules of blackjack. They always tell you double down on 11, never hit on 17 or above, if the dealer has a bust hand, its safest to for you to "stay". Those are rules we all take to the Blackjack table and play with. The same can be said for Fantasy Baseball. Now, the "House Rules Experts" (HRE) are certainly in the majority at this time and their philosophies on winning all center around playing by the fantasy baseball house rules. If you listen to these HRE's on the radio or read their blogs you will tend to notice similarities on the way they approach fantasy advice. Here are a few examples;
1. They always give advice from the point of view of a 5x5 rotisserie league.
2. They will always have ironclad rules such as no closers early, hitters are a must, etc...
3. They tend to update their rules at the beginning of the season like get power hitting outfielders in 2008, they are scarce.
Normally House Rules are simple to follow and rigid in their construction. If you follow them and you have lady luck on your side (just like Vegas) then you can certainly win your leagues. The problem with house rules are they cannot conform quickly enough to changes throughout the season and certainly do not apply to all league types. They can't be applied to Rotohog.com, H2H, or even points leagues. So house rules really only apply to the most common of league types the 5x5 rotisserie, but still that leaves out allot of owners. Another problem with house rules is they are the same year to year with minor modifications. The whole closer rule has been in place for years and certainly needs to change with the times such as the closer role has changed. However, it hasn't. We will get more into this fascinating philosophy later in this article.
Then there are the up and coming strategists, which I consider myself one. Strategists have been around since the beginning of time. If you want to spot a "Strategist Expert" look for the experts who plays and strategizes the game day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month. There is only one ironclad rule for a strategist, "There are no rules". A strategist will play his team based on his own personal philosophies of winning and in most cases will not bend. Just because the common though in fantasy baseball is outfield power is scarce doesn't mean you should draft around that theory. A strategist will develop their own theory and draft around it as such. Now there are draw backs for strategists. They will tend to over think situations, trades, and players to start. Also, if their strategy is wrong from the get-go it will be hard to change strategy midway and still win your league. Still, it's the philosophy of trusting your instinct that guides the strategist.
So after reading all that you are asking me, "True GURU, which is better? Which philosophy should I listen too for great advice?
Obviously since I'm a "Strategist Expert" (SE) myself I will tell you that that is the way to go. I feel there is a revolution in the air and the new breed of expert coming out like myself, Patrick DiCaprio and others consider the strategy of the game, and this is causing a stir in the industry especially amongst the old-school experts. In my opinion, they should be scared because the advice they are giving out just simply doesn't apply anymore to all facets of the game. I'll say this, if you are new to the game of fantasy baseball, otherwise a novice, its great to learn the house rules and from HREs. Once you become more advanced, you have to move on and take yourself to the next level of developing your own winnings strategies that apply to your league. Here is an example. I'm in 6 leagues right now. Here are the league types:
16x16 Roto (this league stinks)
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head (expert league)
Total Points League
Total Points Head-to-Head
5x5 Roto Head-to-Head
Rotohog.com League
Not one of those leagues are a standard 5x5 rotisserie league, so the house rules just simple don't apply by default to any of them. For example in the points league closers are very valuable, so its best to have 5, and have good ones with a total innings maximum. So the argument over closers is in favor of the strategist. We can do that all day, but you get the point.
"House Rules Experts" play it safe. Think about it. If everyone says take Jose Reyes #2 overall, and they are right, then they all pat themselves on the back. If they are wrong they will all say, "well we all got it wrong." However, I disagreed with that philosophy and saw beyond the hype and felt Hanley Ramirez was a far superior shortstop and in the expert league took him 3rd overall directly after Jose Reyes. Who won that battle so far? Then there was the talk of getting closers late in the draft or even free agency. I remember when I was discussing this during an expert draft it was said that you shouldn't take a closer early when you can get "Todd Jones or Joe Borowski much later in the draft." I wonder how that "house rules" advice is holding up?
Basically comparing the two philosophies is like comparing the Yankees and Red Sox since the year 2001. Both have different ideas of building a championship team. The Red Sox used sabermetrics, team chemistry, an infusion of youth, and a few high priced veterans to get two rings. The Strategist Expert is the same. We believe you have to do lots of little things to win the championship and just drafting or picking up free agents is enough.
The Yankees philosophy was born to lose. They went out and signed huge contracts with every high-priced veteran they could find like Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez, and more. They didn't consider team chemistry or sabermetrics. They played by the old-school house rules, which they invented as far back as signing Reggie Jackson. Those rules are to have the better team by having the better players. As you can see, they've stunk ever since for a 200+ million dollar payroll.
So maybe some HRE's don't get it. They don't understand that times have changed and taking fancy hitters like Travis Hafner in the 2nd round in 2007 maybe wasn't a good move. They haven;t yet figured out that by simple roster manipulation you can dominate a league or by finding gems in free agency make up for taking a solid closer early. If I ended up with Joe Borowski, Kerry Wood, and Todd Jones after my draft a HRE would tell me I did great.
Mmm...
Of course the HRE would point out Soria, Sherrill, and Lyons and say you could have gotten those guys. Sure House Rules Expert, but I could have the others and frankly having a Mariano Rivera or Joe Nathan is alright in my book cause I know at year end they'll have a job.
Of course offense will suffer unless you get late round pickups on offense like Kevin Youkilis, Josh Willingham, Edwin Encarnacion , or Nate McClouth. Heck even Xavier Nady is looking good.
So when you decide on a philosophy for playing the game avoid the house rules only if you want to win and become a self-sufficient strategist.
There are several offense players right now that are playing very well that weren't drafted in the top 12 rounds or at all. We'd like to point out some players that you should consider for your team that you could get at a low price in a trade or even find on free agency in your league. If you went high for closers and low for some of these guys congratulations!
Kevin Youkilis (40/126, 23 runs, 25 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .317 Avg) (19th Round Draft Pick)- We got Youkilis in the 19th round of our expert draft as a backup. He's filled in admirably in the wake of injuries and has been awesome. Most of the time he's a great start at Fenway and not on the road, but if you can get him cheap or in free agency we recommend it. He also qualifies for 1B and 3B in most leagues.
Nate McClouth (45/135, 31 runs, 28 RBI, 9 Hrs, 3 SB, .333 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- This guy is on a tear. Most likely you can't get him or even trade for him cause his value is too high. If he goes into a small slump make an offer for him and see if the owner will bite. Otherwise watch his great season.
Ryan Church (40/122, 27 runs, 24 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .328 Avg) (19-25th Round Draft Pick)- We expected good things out of Ryan when he came over from Washington, but this is amazing. 6 Home runs and a .328 batting average. He is streaky, but I got him in Free Agency last week, so look for him.
Conner Jackson (39/115, 27 runs, 28 RBI, 5 Hrs, 2 SB, .339 Avg) (15 - 20th Round Draft Pick)- We were high on this guy coming in and he hasn't let us down. He's pounded out 5 home runs and is batting at a .339 clip. He may still be a free agent in your league. Trade for him if you can, he will only improve his numbers except for average.
JacobyEllsbury (27/96, 27 runs, 12 RBI, 3 Hrs, 13 SB, .281 Avg) (13-15th Round Draft Pick)- We staked allot of our reputation in this guy and he hasn't let down. He's been slowed by the Red Sox showcasing Coco Crisp for trades and by a minor groin injury. He still has 27 runs and 13 SBs in less than 100 at bats. Get this guy, especially if Stolen bases are big in your league. He is 23 for 23 in his career.
Matt Kemp (38/116, 19 runs, 25 RBI, 3 Hrs, 9 SB, .328 Avg) (11-15th Round Draft Pick)- Another player we were high on since we got to see him play plenty out here in Las Vegas. He was drafted in several leagues much higher, but was cut after his slow start. I got him in a few leagues as a free agent. Trade for him if you can, now is the time.
Josh Hamilton (40/137, 17 runs, 36 RBI, 7 Hrs, 0 SB, .292 Avg) (12-18th Round Draft Pick) - A great story and his move to Texas has been great for him. 7 home runs and 36 RBI. If you can trade for him, consider it. His stock is still undervalued, so a good deal could be made.
Carlos Quentin (28/104, 23 runs, 24 RBI, 8 Hrs, 2 SB, .270 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- Not the greatest player on this list, but he's a possible free agent who is absolutely crushing the ball.
Ryan Ludwick (40/126, 23 runs, 25 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .317 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- He's not guaranteed a starting spot, but his play may create one for him. Batting .317 with 6 home runs and he's a free agent in many leagues.
Mike Jacobs (29/107, 16 runs, 24 RBI, 9 Hrs, 1 SB, .271 Avg) (20-25th Round Draft Pick) - We humped this guy in Spring Training and now look at him. 9 home runs and 24 RBI. Trade for him!
Josh Willingham (31/91, 16 runs, 16RBI, 6 Hrs, 2 SB, .341 Avg) (16-21th Round Draft Pick)- He's hurt right now with some back issues, but before he went down he was batting .341 with 6 home runs. He is the real deal and as long as his back holds up he will be dominating. Trade for him while he's hurt. Great value.
As we hit early May, after completing over a month of the season, I thought it would be interesting to look at a metric I like to check out every so often: xFIP. This is a statistic provided by The Hardball Times, and is similar to DIPS ERA, using the components of HRs allowed, strikeouts, and walks to estimate what the pitcher's ERA "should" be absent luck. It's easier to calculate than DIPS and gives a reasonable estimate. However, I just described the basic FIP stat. I'm actually going to be using xFIP which normalizes the HRs allowed component to a league-average and is based on the number of HRs allowed per outfield fly. This metric now eliminates the flaw in the basic FIP formula that includes actual HRs allowed, rather than expected HRs allowed, which has been shown to be mostly luck related and regress toward 10%-11% of fly balls allowed.
The lists below aren't the exact top 10 leaders and laggards, but rather the more interesting pitchers near the top and bottom. I also only included pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings so far this year. Just to be clear, an xFIP below actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been unlucky, whereas an xFIP above actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been lucky.
This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this blog isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with the readers.
I got a decent hammering on my opinions on closers and how the other experts reasoned their view of them. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is and more so trying to define if someone is an expert. I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry this week and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.
As a fantasy manager, I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.
Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closers almost has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.
Hold on, what if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's hard if not impossible to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.
I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.
After talking with my friend and co-host Patrick DiCaprio we came up with what we think an expert might be. We think we've solved this fascinating case on what the definition of an expert. In our discussing, we removed the fact that just because you are an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, you win allot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, but are at the very least fine reasons to support a person's case. What makes us an expert is the people who listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It is our listeners and readers who determine that we are an expert. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.
That is what its all about. So after this blog you will here nothing more about me or anyone else being an expert. I'll leave that up to you.
And by the way, Patrick, RC, an I prefer to be called "gurus" instead of experts if you so offer the courtesy.
There's No Place Like Home - Article found on ESPN. We wanted to share it with our readers.
By AJ Mass of ESPN
If you can't find what you're looking for in your own backyard, perhaps you'll never be able to find it all. While most players will tell you they prefer sleeping in their own bed at night, most of the time they're still able to produce away from the friendly confines of their home ballpark. However, while some players' home numbers glow like a beautiful Technicolor picture, their road numbers come through in dreary black and white. As a fantasy owner, you can hope your fortitude will lead you to do the right thing (bench a player) when you see a twister on the distant horizon, but it takes a lot of nerve to actually pull that trigger, especially when your heart might be telling you something different. Unless you want to end up in bed with a cold compress on your head, you should pick up the warning signs these guys are throwing your way: Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs (Home batting average: .407; road batting average: .227). Fukudome has "blown in" from Kagoshima, Japan and seems to have found a home inside the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Away from Wrigley, however, that's a horse of a different color. Jason Bay, OF, Pirates (Home runs at home: 5; home runs on the road: 1). What's interesting here is the Pirates have only 11 homers at home as a team, and they've actually hit more of them on the "yellow-brick" road. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (RBIs at home: 17; RBIs on the road: 4). Big Papi is more like the Wizard at home; on the road, maybe the scarecrow, flopping around on the ground trying to collect all that lost straw? Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Home stolen bases: 5; road stolen bases: 1). It's 90 feet between the bases no matter where those bases might happen to reside, but apparently Ichiro's feet simply aren't as fleet if he's not breathing in that fresh "Emerald City" air. Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Home ERA: 0.89 ERA; Road ERA: 8.10 ERA). At home, Maholm is a good, good witch. On the road, his ERA is the most wicked of them all. Have a little fire, Paul! It's time to step up your game and cut down on those long balls you've been giving up in the opposing team's parks.
Jake Peavy, SP, Padres (Home K/9 rate: 9.29; road K/9 rate: 4.50). We know Petco gives pitchers "da nerve" to take a few chances with their pitch selection, but should it really have that much of an effect on strikeouts? Hmm, sure seems like it does. Brian Bannister, SP, Royals (Home batting average of balls in play: .183; road BIPA: .288) Sure seems like Bannister knows all too well when he's not in Kansas, er, Kansas City anymore. At the very least, he seems to have the flying monkeys known as luck working against him more when he's on the road.
Troy Percival, RP, Rays (Saves at home: 4; saves on the road: 1): Okay, so this is more because the Rays win more at home (and also haven't played many on the road yet), but this is also a theme that carries over from last season. The Rays went 29-52 on the road in 2007. If the Rays can't play well enough in their road grays to find the need to call on Troy, then all that rust may well lead to this tin man's demise.
Now that you've been given ample warning of a few players to avoid when the schedule forces them away from the family farm, the choice is yours whether to leave them active. You can be a happy little bluebird and ignore it, but beware of the house falling from the sky and crushing your championship dreams, ruby slippers and all.
OK, so I've gotten hammered in the last few days by some of my expert friends in the industry who feel that closers are a one category play and should not be heavily invested in.
Even know I completely disagree with that I do understand the argument being presented. However, do represent a new breed of expert. One who not only doesn't think that the roto 5x5 is the almighty way of playing fantasy baseball, but also recognizes that thousands of leagues don't play that style either. I'm working on getting those Numbers to show just how many leagues this year weren't 5x5 roto, but I believe when dispensing advice you have to consider H2H and points leagues in the discussion. Now, my background is primarily H2H, but my theory still stands on roto 5x5.
The point I was desperately trying to get across was that when you are drafting, you have to draft according to several factors like rules, what other teams are doing, and your strategy. You also have to make sure you have a balanced team. Now, consider the option that you wait on a closer till the 14th round and you got low tier closer. OK, sure there is a possibility that he would be a great player, but there is also the chance he can stink and lose his job in April (refer to Corpas). Same goes for hitters, some hitters have terrible season like Andruw Jones who was a top pick until last season. Allot of teams got screwed when they picked him. Of course, nearly no one picked Mike Lowell until the extreme later rounds and he exploded.
The point is pick your team where you feel its best. If you want to gaurantee a strong bullpen get Papelbon, KROD, etc.. If you want to take a chance and get more offense, do that. I just don't think your draft philosophy going into the draft should be one of tight set rules like no closers till later.
You may not get enough closers! Finally, they are simply not 1 category players. Even in a roto 5x5 league categories are very tight at the end of the year. What if (the dreaded what if) you were in 8th place in strikeouts nd needed 45 more strikeouts to get to 5th places getting you 3 more points. Your closers are Brain Wilson, George Sherill, and Gagne.
Now imagine your closers are Papelbon, Putz, and Valverde. You get the 50 more strikeouts, and three more roto points and now you are winning the league. I can do the same thing with wins, WHIP, and ERA.
As we hit early May, after completing over a month of the season, I thought it would be interesting to look at a metric I like to check out every so often: xFIP. This is a statistic provided by 
