Welcome to the first of the Censor's ruminations on that most wonderful, and most heartbreaking, position in fantasy baseball: the starting pitcher. It's well-known that there are few fantasy pundits with as much pure, masochistic love for the SP as yours truly, but I don't plan on apologizing for my devotion to starting pitching any time soon. Every article will shine the statistical spotlight on one important starting pitcher, but since this is my first time I thought I'd go for the quadruple-play.
These four things I know are true...
Justin Duchscherer is absolutely not this good.
If you consider yourself an above-average fantasy player and you do not move The Duke for the best offer you get at the deadline, I'm officially busting you down to average status. The marquee numbers are oh so juicy: 10 wins on a bad team, along with a closer-like 1.87 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. But here's what else you need to know: Duch has already thrown 20 more innings than he has ever thrown in a single season, so the possibility for a late-season breakdown physically is all-too-real, especially considering he only threw 72 innings total the previous two seasons. His K/9 rate is a troubling 5.4--which wouldn't be a problem for a groundball pitcher like Wang or Carmona, but Duch's groundball-to-flyball ratio is almost exactly 1-to-1, and that is very dangerous when you can't strike guys out. So how has he been so good? The answer is that he has a ridiculous .215 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), by far the lowest in the majors. It's a stat that measures luck, basically, and if you've enjoyed his stats this year so far, you're equally lucky. Cash in your chips now and do not be the guy regretting your lack of a trade.
(The preceding was written before Duchscherer's Saturday start. Looks like I was right!)
Cliff Lee is absolutely this good.
It seems like Lee is due to crash any moment now--doesn't every rise this meteoric come with a glaring Sell High sign?--but try as I might, I can not find statistical evidence to tell me anything other than the 29-year-old Cliff Lee is a dynamite pitcher. His strikeout numbers are significantly higher than the three prior seasons, all the way up to 7.6 K/9, but at the same time he is striking more guys out, he has increased his ground ball rate from a career average of 34% all the way up to 47%. I'd expect some regression if the strikeouts weren't there, but it's obvious that Lee has simply figured out how to locate his pitches and use his disgustingly effective curveball like never before. As a result, his walks have plummeted, and his K/BB rate which hovered around 2.2 for his career is at a filthy, majors-leading 6.0. As for that tricky BABIP, luck has not been a factor: Lee's .302 BABIP shows that, if anything, he is slightly below-average in the luck department. Cliff Lee won't be the first pitcher taken in any midseason draft, but he's the best pitcher in the major leagues right now and there is no reason to believe a precipitous decline is coming. If you want to trade him, you should demand second or third round value. And if you want to go get him, whatever you do, don't mention this article to the owner you're trying to pull the rug from under.
I was so right about Ubaldo Jimenez.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not thrilled about it--after all, I drafted him on all five teams I'm playing this year and put my vaunted Ultra-Sleeper tag on him, only to systematically be forced into cutting him five times throughout the month of May. I haven't been able to snap him back up in every league, but if for some reason your fellow owners are all late to the party, Jimenez has far too much stuff to spend another second on anyone's wire. His success has come mostly from simply learning how to throw his dynamite fastball--and dynamite is the word; Ubaldo's average fastball speed trails only Felix Hernandez and Dustin McGowan across the majors, and it needs to be since he throws fastball 70+% of his pitches. In his first seven starts of the year, Jimenez only threw 57% of his pitches for strikes; over his last seven starts, that number is at 62% and climbing. He's also proving the ability to last deep into games; excluding an entirely excusable four-inning, four-run speedbump in Detroit, his last seven starts find him averaging seven innings and 104 pitches per start. That's a large enough sample size to make you believe that the kinks are being worked out, and if the walk rate can stay below 4.0, Jimenez should be a solid option going forward--especially at home (yes, dreaded Coors Canaveral) where his ERA now hovers around a healthy 2.80.
I was so wrong about John Maine.
So shoot me--every fantasy writer gets a little bit of hometown giddyness over their team's young studs, and as an orange-blooded Mets fan I already put a deposit on my John Maine 2008 Cy Young commemorative plate at the beginning of the year--and Maine has been totally, emphatically, blah. A 4.20 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, along with regression into basically a two-pitch pitcher. Maine used his slider very effectively last year but has dramatically reduced its usage this year, while doubling the amount of change-ups thrown. Batters are able to wait more for a good pitch up the middle, and this increased batter patience has caused Maine to fall into the trap of zone-nibbling, ultimately leading to a 4.2 BB/9 rate--by far the highest he's posted in his Mets career. To add insult, Maine hasn't even been unlucky--if anything, his .281 BABIP has room to regress negatively. He is still a good pitcher, but still lacking the pieces to be a great one. I'd love to recommend buying low--and my Met pride may still lead me to try--but even when you feel like you're buying low, you may still actually be paying fair price. Looks like that Cy Young award will have to wait.
The Fantasy Baseball Bible is proud to announce the release of Book 8 - Gearing Up For The Dog Days. This latest of the the 10 book bible features handling the most intense months of the season and dealing with issues like the trade deadline, September call-ups, making a playoff, and much more.
Josh Hamilton will finish with under 150 RBI.I have seen people have close to the number of RBI that Hamilton had before the All-Star Break before, and Hack Wilson's single season RBI record has yet to be seriously challenged in my lifetime.Hamilton is a special player, but it won't happen this year.Not even close.
Chase Utley will win the NL MVP.The Philadelphia Phillies will get the hat trick of NL MVP's after Ryan Howard won in 2006, and Jimmy Rollins in 2007.Utley is one of the best hitters in the majors, perennially around .315, 30 HRs, 100 RBI, and 15 SB.This year is no different and it is only mid-July.Look for Utley to challenge 40 HRs if he stays healthy and take home the hardware in the National League.
Edinson Volquez will not win 20 games.Volquez was 12-3 prior to the All-Star Break, but this guy hasn't thrown the number of innings he is on pace for before in his career, so I am predicting a comeback to reality.Volquez has been absolutely spectacular this year, with an ERA of 2.23, and is striking out over a batter an inning.He has been lights out so far, but I can't see him continuing this throughout the rest of the season.
Grady Sizemore will go 40/40.This will be a tough one since Sizemore has never even hit 30 homers in a season before, and has only stolen 30 once in his career.However, he does sit at 23 homers and 22 steals on July 18th, so if he continues this great season he is having, 40/40 might be in reach.He is on a horrible team that has nothing to play for, so he might as well swing for the fence all the time, and be very aggressive on the basepaths.
Rich Harden will not pitch in the playoffs.I haven't decided yet if this will be because he won’t be healthy enough to start, or that the Cubbies won't make the playoffs, but I'm more confident that this guy will be hurt.I have been advising fantasy owners away from Harden all year long, and so far I have been wrong, but I still see that black cloud coming, and he might leave you hanging when you need him most......the end of the season and the fantasy playoffs.
Robinson Cano will hit .300.This guy is way too talented for his beginning of the season to last until September.Going into today, Cano was under .250 so getting to .300 might be a bit of a stretch, but I believe he can do it.He and the Yankees will most likely come alive in the second half of the season, and expect this talented hitter to finish around .300/16/85.
Mike Mussina will win 16 games or less.Mussina won his 12th game on the Yankees first contest after the All-Star Break, but this is another guy that I have been waiting for to crash and burn all season long.He is too old, and is too far away from his prime for this to possibly continue.Expect an ugly August and September from the Moose.
Erik Bedard won't start more than four games for the rest of the season.Bedard has been a walking, talking medical report this season, but unfortunately for him and the Mariners, the thing he hasn't been doing enough is pitching.He's on the DL again, and the tightness in his shoulder is not improving.I wouldn't be overly surprised if he didn't pitch again this season, as the Mariners are so far out of it, why should they push their huge disappointment….I mean off-season acquisition…..to pitch again this year?
Brett Myers will finish with an ERA over 5.00.He hasn't been activated back from the minors yet, but he is expected to be within the week.Myers ERA currently sits at 5.88, but he claims to "have his swagger back" since pitching in the minors.That's funny, because he was 1-3 during his stint down on the farm.To be fair, he did pitch better, as his ERA during that time is 3.00, but a three ERA in the minors doesn't translate all that well to the major league level.
Joba Chamberlain will win at least 10 games.On the opposite end of the spectrum from Mussina, I fully expect Chamberlain to become a premier pitcher in this league pretty much right away.He has been completely dominant at times, and at other times only really good.He has electric stuff and knows how to miss bats when he needs to, and should be good enough to win at least eight games for the rest of the year.
Visit www.fightingchancefantasy.com for more articles like this one plus a daily recap of the night's activity.Also, don't miss the Fantasy Baseball Scouting Report every Tuesday night at 10pm EST, and the Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show every Wednesday night at 9pm EST.For more information on the shows go to fantasygurusnetwork.com.
So I thought I would do a mid-season revisit to check out how some of the players I draft were doing in particular the ones Paul noted were bad picks.
Before I go on I want to establish with the readers that one of my best skills in fantasy baseball is free agency. I've won leagues on getting Papelbon and Braun before anyone else did, so I am assured that any holes this team may present I would have filled them. It's also important to note that this draft took place on February 25th and not March 25th.
Here are the highlighted picks from the 23 round draft.
Round 1 pick 12 - Albert Pujols, 1B. Paul was hammering Pujols before and during the draft. The end result was I got him with the last pick of the first round.
First Half Stats: .350, 18 HRs, 50 RBI, 49 Runs.
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: TTG by a landslide. This guy has been a monster this season.
Round 2 pick 1 - Ryan Braun 3B-OF. Another pick I was hammered on, but I felt quite strong on since I knew at some point he'd qualify as a OF. He would probably play 3B on my fantasy team.
First Half Stats: .286, 23 HRs, 66 RBI, 52 Runs, 8 SB. Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: Paul said these were terrible picks. I can't see a guy who has 23 dingers and 66 RBI's at the break as bad.
Round 3 pick 12 - JJ Putz RP. This pick has been bad, but I would have had plenty of warning and even after he went on the DL the first time Brandon Morrow was available and I got him in several leagues.
First Half Stats: 2 Wins, 7 Saves, 23 K, 5.21 ERA
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: Injuries are something we have no control over, so this bad pick has to be chalked up as bad luck since I couldn't see the injury coming.
Round 4 pick 1 Jonathan Papelbon RP. He's been absolutely dominating this year and certainly worth a 4th round pick.
First Half Stats: 3 Wins, 28 Saves, 51 K, 2.43 ERA Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: Easily The True Guru. If there were saves available in the later part of the draft, there was also offense. I got a non-tradeable secure closer and he's paying dividends.
Round 5 pick 12 - Chone Figgins 3b. Another guy hit by the injury bug, but before he went on the DL he was awesome. First Half Stats: .275, 0 HRs, 11 RBI, 31 Runs, 16 SB.
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: I didn't win this one so far, but again this isn't a case of a bad player and bad pick. Its a case of another bad luck injury.
Round 6 pick 1 - Scott Kazmir, SP. All-Star. Having a solid season and worth a 6th round pick, but there is better out there.
First Half Stats: 7 Wins, 91 K, 3.04 ERA
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: How can you knock this pick? TTG all the way.
Round 7 pick 12 - Michael Young, SS. This was my SS, and man has he paid off.
First Half Stats: .302, 7 HRs, 52 RBI, 63 Runs, 6 SB. Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: If I remember correctly Paul said he was a one, maybe two category player. Add in RBI, Runs, and 6 stolen bases and I'd say he's more than that. Sweet pick.
Round 8 pick 1 - Fausto Carmona SP- Having a solid year till the injury bug hit him, but he will be back and strong.
First Half Stats: 4 Wins, 23 K, 3.10 ERA Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: This was another fine pick to add to my rotation. The injury hurts, but there are plenty of pitchers like Gavin Floyd to get in free agency while he is on the DL.
Round 9, pick 12 - Jacoby Ellsbury OF. Finally I got my first true OF and he has been outstanding.
First Half Stats: .269, 5 HRs, 27 RBI, 60 Runs, 35 SB.
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: I got speed and run production that compares too Jose Reyes in the 9th round. Paul was all over this pick and hated it beyond the draft. He's eating his words.
Round 11 pick 12 Ben Sheets SP. All-Star. Having a great year.
First Half Stats: 10 Wins, 108 K, 2.85 ERA
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: Paul was OK with this pick, but since he thought the whole draft terrible, big win for TTG.
Round 12 pick 1 - Placido Polanco 2b. He doing what we all expected. No power, but average, and some RBI and runs to boot.
First Half Stats: .305, 3 HRs, 32 RBI, 44 Runs, 2 SB. Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: I understand why Paul didn't like this pick, but he's the 2b I got. not bad for the weak spot on my team.
Round 16 pick 1 - BJ Ryan RP. I got my 3rd closer as a late sleeper pick. I do agree that you should get a closer late.
First Half Stats: 2Wins, 18 Saves, 33 K, 2.84 ERA Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: Great pick for TTG. I don't think Paul was high on this pick because of BJ's surgery.
Round 22, pick 1 - JD Drew OF. He's had a fantastic season and was selected as an All-Star. I put together a nice outfield.
First Half Stats: .302, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 63 Runs, 2 SB.
Paul Vs. The True Guru Winner: Paul hated this pick and this guy in general. What a mistake he made. Do your homework next time, and don't just look ast one season full of stats.
That's enough. Other notable solid picks were Josh Willingham, Melky Cabrera, Jason Bartlett, and Jorge Posada.
I did have some terrible picks: Dontrell Willis (R15), Phillip Hughes (R14), Josh Fields (R13), and Matt Diaz (R21). All lower round picks of course.
I took Jason Schmidt as a gamble in the 20th round knowing it was unlikely he'd be back soon. He looks to come back in August. Let's see what he does.
Overall I think I had a fantastic draft and I have a very good roto team. Maybe Paul should rethink how he evaluates other experts because it makes him look really stupid when he slams a fellow industry expert for taking Pujols with the 12th pick. The funny thing about that pick was I never saw him drop as far as he did in any other draft I was involved in real or mock. If you listen to the draft it obvious that Paul has a problem with me and was looking to shred my good name, but in the end he just made me look that much better and made himself look like a dunce. Maybe Paul should go back to his day job because if you didn't like my draft you have no idea what a good draft is. Of course In Mock Draft Central's first expert draft, which Paul was involved in the rumor is he took Ryan Garko and Kevin Kouzmenoff in the 8th and 9th rounds.
I'm happy for Paul there was a big mouth wannabe there to rip his picks. He did get laughed off the http://www.fantasybaseballexpress/ Chat box. Its all Karma.
Collin Balester, WAS. In his three starts since being called up by the Nationals, Balester went from pretty good, to not so good, to even worse. His minor league numbers were nothing to get excited about, I mean his win/loss total was respectable, but his ERA was kind of robust. In his first big league start he gave up just one hit over five innings against Florida, so he has the skills to be effective, but by his last start he allowed 11 hits and didn't get through the fifth inning. Given the fact that he is also on a last place team, and in a division where you have to face the Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Braves, I would try to find a better option out there than Balester.
Radhames Liz, BAL. Liz is definitely one of the better prospects in the Orioles system, but throughout his minor league career he has reminded me of another Orioles pitcher, Daniel Cabrera. Liz has electric stuff, but lacks the control and focus to really have his potential become fully realized. And it has shown since he came to the majors. Liz has a winning record at 3-2, but his ERA is hideous at 7.57. He has been a total rollercoaster ride. In his eight starts he has allowed two or three runs four times, and four runs or more (including eight in his most recent start) the other four. He hasn't been able to pitch deep into games, as he hasn't gotten through the fourth inning on three different occasions. All in all, Liz is a guy that I would definitely steer clear of right now. Charlie Morton, ATL. Morton has had six starts with Atlanta, and outside of two clunkers, he has been a pretty effective (yet boring) pitcher. His AAA numbers from this year jump out of the page at you. Morton was 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 72 Ks in 79 innings. Yet he hasn't been able to transfer that dominance to the next level. He has allowed three runs or less in four of his six starts, but has only struck out 18 in over 30 innings to go with 12 walks. Morton has the ability to be a very effective pitcher in this league, but as of right now he has been a little too inconsistent to get excited about. Only grab him if you are having a rash of injuries or if you are in a keeper league. Sean Gallagher, OAK. Gallagher is an interesting case because not only did he just change teams, but changed leagues as well. One of the major pieces of the trade that sent Rich Harden to Chicago, Gallagher was having a pretty decent season for the Cubs. He was 3-4 with an ERA around 4.40, but was on a pretty good streak when traded. In his first start in Oakland, Gallagher looked great, lasting seven innings, allowing just two runs and striking out seven. He is a decent, but not great prospect, gets better than average strikeouts (56 Ks in 65 IP), but his value has got to be knocked down some with a move to an offensively challenged team, and to the American League. One last thing to think about though, A's GM Billy Beane has pulled off some great trades in the past, and is a pretty good talent evaluator. Perhaps he sees something that we do not?
Chris Volstad, FLA. The most exciting guy on this list, Volstad was called up on July 6th to initially pitch out of the bullpen. It didn't take long for the Marlins to realize that was a mistake, and Volstad was starting a game just five days later. He is easily the best pitcher in the Marlins farm system, even though his minor league numbers weren't exactly gaudy. In 15 starts he was 4-4 with a 3.36 ERA and 56 Ks in 91 innings for Florida's AA affiliate. I was hesitant to jump to hard on the Volstad bandwagon when he was recalled as many players trying to jump from Double-A to the majors have a hard time with that adjustment. If his first two appearances are any indication, Volstad should be just fine. After throwing two shutout innings out of the pen for his first time out, Volstad pitched into the 9th inning in his first start before being unable to finish. All told in his first start he went 8.2 innings, allowed just one run and struck out six. Of all the recent young pitchers who have come to the majors, Volstad would be the first one that I would look at if you are looking to add some new blood to your team. Eric Hurley, TEX. Hurley has made four starts with the Rangers, and as of right now is on the DL with a strained left hamstring. Hurley has made some improvements after a rough first outing, when he gave up four runs over six innings of work. Like most young pitchers, he hasn't been going deep into games, but in his last three starts he had given up two runs or less. His strikeouts aren't exactly Peavy-like (12 in 22.2 innings), but if he continues to win games, you can look past the low strikeout totals. It is nice that he is on an offensive powerhouse team like Texas, but around now down south the ball really starts to jump out of the yard, and the Ballpark at Arlington isn't exactly known as a pitchers' park. When Hurley comes off the DL, see what his next start or two are like and judge whether you have a spot for him on your team.
Chris Perez, STL. Perhaps the next young guy in the majors to be made into a closer, Perez joined the Cardinals on May 16th and has had some good times, and some bad times. He is a tremendously hard thrower and can hit 100 mph on the radar gun. He has struck out 22 batters in 23.2 innings, but has struggled with control, walking 15 over those innings. I don't think that Tony LaRussa will give him a chance to save games this year, but given the recent struggles of Ryan Franklin and Jason Isringhausen, anything can happen. Perez has a 2-1 record with a 4.18 ERA, which for a relief pitcher isn't good at all.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox, SP Clay Buchholz was rather disappointing in his first eight starts of the 2008 season, ending up with a 5.53 ERA before getting jettisoned back to the minors. However, there is ample reason to believe that the young pitcher we saw at the end of 2007 is the future pitching star that he actually represents, and the early 2008 version was just an evil imposter. The Red Sox are giving Buchholz a chance to redeem himself, and he is scheduled to make his next major league start this Friday. He may have some more kinks to work out, but on talent alone, he is worth picking up. Many scouts consider Buchholz a future ace by virtue of his top-notch curveball, which helped him tally an impressive 1.25 strikeouts per inning ratio in the minors. The rest of his repertoire isnt bad either, as he typically mixes in a 90-95 mph fastball, a slider, and a highly effective change-up. Available in 31% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, OF Expectations were high for Adam Jones coming into the 2008 season, but after a disastrous month of May, where he batted .226 with 1 HR and 1 SB, the collective fantasy world couldnt drop him from rosters fast enough. During June, he has begun to shown signs that he has acquired a clue at the plate, hitting .326. and he has been able to continue his competent hitting into July with a .384 average. Jones has yet to show the 25 HR / 25 SB potential that many attributed to him, but as long as he continues getting regular at bats there is a good chance he might do enough damage in those categories to help your cause in the second half. Available in 59% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Masa Kobayashi, Cleveland Indians, OF The release of Joe Borowski this week by the Indians raises two questions concerning the Cleveland closer situation - 1) What took the Indians so long to release Joe Borowski ? and 2) Who is expected to assume closer duties? On the first question, noone is really sure, but given the way Borowski was throwing this season, there is no doubt that Cleveland could have used Travis Hafner as closer and got about the same results. On the second question, it appears that Masa Kobayashi is the favorite to takeover as the Indians primary closer. Kobayashi certainly fits the profile of someone who should excel in this new role, he has good control, and throws a mid-90s fastball, a slider and split-finger fastball. Moreover, he has already had success as a closer in Japan. In fact, he is the only player ever to accumulate 20 saves in seven straight seasons for the Nippon Professional Baseball league, and finished his career with over 200 saves. Available in 65% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Jerry Hairston, Cincinnati Reds, SS,OF After returning from his injury hiatus in late June, Jerry Hairston has pretty much continued his relatively obscure, but covertly productive fantasy contributions in the batting average and steals categories. As the favored leadoff hitter in the Reds lineup, Hairston has hit .333 over the last 12 games, and has added 3 SBs in the last seven games. He has finally gotten noticed again on the waiver wire over the past week or so, and should be a decent player to add if you are light in the steals department. Available in 52% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Damaso Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates, RP As a left-handed who basically throws just two pitches (a 90-93 MPH fastball, and a decent slider) Dámaso Marte projects to be the type of closer that may cause that occasional nauseous feeling when he gives up 4 runs in two-thirds of an inning. Really, he is best suited as a lefty specialist, for example, last season right-handed batters hit .271, and left handed hitters were completely neutralized against him, with a .094 average. Nonetheless, with Matt Capps expected to be on the shelf until early September, if you are scrambling for saves, the Pirates secondhand closer might be looking like a decent addition to your fantasy squad.
Available in 67% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Other Players To Consider: Scott Olsen,Florida Marlins,SP Available in 42% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Nomar Garciaparra,LA Dodgers,1B,3B Available in 77% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Adam LaRoche,Pittsburgh Pirates,1B Available in 49% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Francisco Liriano,Minnesota Twins,SP Available in 25% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Kaz Matsui,Houston Astros,2B Available in 72% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Well the Major League Baseball All-Star team has been announced, so now it’s time to start complaining about who was elected, and who was snubbed. I’ve never been a big fan of the rule that states every team has to have at least one representative. Why? Either you are an all-star or you are not. Now that this game decides which league will have home field in the World Series, shouldn’t the best players be playing? Evan Longoria doesn’t make the team because Detroit has to be represented by Carlos Guillen. I don’t believe the fans should be voting either, as that turns it into one big popularity contest. How many Red Sox, Yankee, and Cubs players can we put on the team? Starting with the American League, what were the players thinking when they elected Jason Varitek to the game? He’s batting .215 for crying out loud! He has 15 hits in his last 117 at-bats. A.J. Pierzynski is certainly a more deserving candidate and Dioner Navarro, is having a solid season. David Ortiz being voted in by the fans wasn’t such a great selection either. He will have missed six weeks worth of game action by the time games resume after the All-Star break, but that situation took care of itself when Milton Bradley was asked to replace him in the game. Michael Young deserved the starting nod over Derek Jeter, but he still made the team. Shortstop is not so strong in the American League, so we will leave Jeter on the team. Manny Ramirez is living off reputation and a hot first six weeks. He’s done very little since Ortiz went down. Jermaine Dye is certainly a more deserving selection. Not much to complain about with the pitching selections. They seemed to have gotten it right, although they did lean heavily on closers and not so much on starters. Now let’s get to the National League: Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome are both on the team. Soriano was having a nice year when he was healthy, but he has been on the DL twice now with two different injuries. Fukudome has just no business being on an All-Star team - none! Corey Hart should be wondering what else he has to do to get elected. How does Brian Wilson get taken over Cole Hamels? It's not like Wilson is the Giants only representative, since Tim Lincecum is also going? Miguel Tejada voted in by the players over Jose Reyes is interesting. Bud Selig must be thrilled that the guy who lied about his age and is accused of taking illicit drugs, in addition to having a mediocre season, was voted in. I’m done complaining now. Perhaps they should try a new system. Let managers, coaches, baseball executives, and writers vote on who should get in. Then let the fans pick the starters from that pool.
Listen to the Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show not only for our interview with former Red Sox great Fred Lynn, but also listen in for a HUGE announcement for our show. It may not be to the caliber of Paul, Lenny, and Tony's announcement of an "Idea" to collaborate, but its big!
Alright everyone, you are going to hear allot of different opinions on the Sabathia trade, and hopefully mine will be the one you accept because it will be the right one.
I think its great for owners that Sabathia will go to the National League and pitch for a team in the hunt. here's why.
1. First and foremost Sabathia is a gamer and thrives on the playoff hunt.
2. Instead of facing an everyday DH, he will now get a pitcher. He will also naturally face many softer lineups than the ones he faced in the American League. And I know some pitchers can ht, but lets be real here. Sabathia is use to facing 9 strong batters and won't change that way of thinking just because its a pitcher.
3. His ERA will drop, Strikeouts per 9 innings and K/BB ratio will increase. Sabathia is the American League Cy Young winner and he is going to a league that is virtually unfamiliar with him. He will be able to dominate teams until they at least go through him twice. His only real issue is control. If he keeps his control, he will certainly dominate.
4. He's going to a better team. OK, the Cleveland Indians weren't that bad, but let's face it the Brewers are better. The Brewers are ranked 15 in all of MLB in total runs scored, while the Indians are ranked 20th. The difference is 19 runs.
5. He'll have a better bullpen to back him up. Now again, I'm not praising the Brewers bullpen, but it is a big improvement over the Indians bullpen. Behind Sabathia are guys like Betancourt, Kobayashi, Lewis, and Perez. The Brewers have a much more stable bullpen with Torres, Mota, Riske, and Shouse. The overall team ERA for the Brewers is 4.10 ranked 12th overall in MLB. The Indians have a 4.31 ERA ranked 19th overall.
Its an easy call, the Sabathia trade will improve his fantasy numbers. If there is a manager who has him and wants to trade him, go and get CC Sabathia. You won't be disappointed.
Former Red Sox slugger Fred Lynn will join the Gurus on The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show this Wednesday at 9pm EST to discuss Fantasy Baseball from a former players perspective. Also hear some fantastic stories of how baseball was played, along with some meat from the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry of the 1970's. Fred Lynn retired in 1989 and has since been inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame and The College Baseball Hall of Fame.
He didn't arrive with much fanfare, but Mike Aviles has been one of the better rookie hitters so far in 2008. The Royals 2007 Minor League Player of the Year hit 17 HRs and drove in 77 runs in 2007. He was on pace to crush that season in 2008 before the Royals summoned him to play with the big boys (.336/10/42 in 51 games in '08). Aviles got off to a great start, but had many fantasy owners not believing that he was for real. Like all young hitters he will slump from time to time (no hits in last nine at-bats currently), but his track record says that he will continue to hit. And with no competition to take his job with the Royals, he should be a great pickup at a weak position.
Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
.254, 4 HRs, 6 RBI (15 games)
Headley is one of the better hitting prospects in baseball, and would have had a starting job out of Spring if he was ready to play left field. But he went down the minors, crushed the baseball, and learned the outfield. Now that he is back with the Pads, he is looking to keep on doing what he has been.....hitting baseballs out of the park. Since his call up on June 17th, Headley has only gone hitless twice, and has an eight game hitting streak going right now. He has shown pretty good power at the major league level and just needs to cut down on the strikeouts. I don't see him returning to the minors again anytime soon, so if you need some help, Headley could be a good option for you.
Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers
.150, 1 HR, 3 RBI (6 games)
Has Jarrod Saltalamacchia fallen out of favor in Texas already? Everyone thought he would be the starting catcher out of Spring, but the job was given to Gerald Laird. Then Laird gets hurt, and up from AA comes Max Ramirez. Ramirez was making the minors look like Junior Varsity as he was hitting .363 with 17 homers and 50 ribbies in just 67 games. However, it is looking like the jump from Double-A to the majors might have been too big for Max, as he is struggling mightily at the plate. Don't be surprised to see him return to the farm if he struggles more in the next few days. Keep his name in the back of your mind for next season, however, perhaps then he might be ready for prime time.
Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
.100, 1 RBI, 2 SBs (3 games)
The Yankees needed to inject some speed into their lineups and did so with the promotion of Gardner. He is certainly never going to wow you with his power, as he never even hit 10 homers in a season in the minors, but that's not why you would own him. Gardner has blazing speed and has the potential to steal 50 bases in the majors if he were ever to get regular playing time. That's a problem on the Yankees, as with Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui, at-bats in the outfield are tough to come by. But with Matsui hurt, and Damon crashing into the wall on Friday, perhaps Gardner will get some playing time, and if you need steals, this is a good place to go to get them.
Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
.316, 3 HRs, 7 RBI (7 games)
The Rangers best hitting prospect came to the majors to inject some more power into that lineup, and so far he has delivered. Davis was putting up big numbers in the minors before his call up (.333/14/42 in just 46 games) and has continued hitting in Texas. Rumors are that he might return to the minors when Hank Blalock returns from the DL, but I have two thoughts on that. One, if he keeps hitting like this, how do you send him down? Two, Hank Blalock come off the DL? Who really thinks that is going to happen anytime soon? Or even if he does it is just a matter of time before he is hurt again. I like Davis, big time.
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
.428, 1 HR, 1 RBI (4 games)
One of the top hitting prospects in ALL of baseball, Butler has been a guy that we have been waiting for to hit .315 or better and bash out 25+ home runs. However, in his short major league career he has yet to show that power potential that he flashed in the minors. In 2007 at AAA, Butler connected on 13 homers in just 57 games, which translates to nearly 40 over an entire season. However, in his 149 games at the major league level he has just ten. Butler has a world of talent and in deeper (16+ teams) or keeper leagues, you should probably make a move on Butler now, depending on your roster.
Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
.333, 3 HRs, 10 RBI (8 games)
This is far from Lind's first stint in the major leagues, but so far it has certainly been his most productive. I have been one of Lind's biggest critics as I haven't seen anything in his game to match all the hype that surrounded his ascension to the majors. He had shown SOME power in his other trips to Toronto, but his batting average was so bad, that you couldn't afford to keep him on your roster. In his previous call-up earlier this year, Lind was only able to collect one hit in six games, while striking out three times. Something might have finally clicked for him though, as he has been a nice shot in the arm for the Blue Jays offense. He has driven in six of those runs in the past three games, and although his average is still not impressive, he might be worth a spot on your team.
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