Is Chone Figgins a Poor Man's Jose Reyes? How About a Better Draft Value?

OK, if you haven't heard the hype behind Jose Reyes over the past couple of years you shouldn't be playing fantasy baseball. He's one of the hottest players in the draft and comes at a premiere price. Chone Figgins has been the stable 3B/OF/2B for the Angels for the past 4 seasons. Both are lead off batters for their perspective teams, and both are speed demons on the base paths. Going into 2008, Jose Reyes has a current ADP (average draft position) on Mock Draft Central of 4.14 and around 3 on Yahoo!, while Chone Figgins currently has an ADP on Mock Draft Central of 54.96 and Yahoo! he comes in at 46. Let's examine each player based on 1 and 3-year projections, their 2008 projections, and other advantages and disadvantages to determine who is the better draft value.


Last year Jose Reyes had a down year in his young career. While playing in 160 games and getting a mind-blowing 681 at bats, he put together a .280 Avg with 119 runs, 12 home runs, and 78 stolen bases. Those numbers aren't the type you expect for the overall 3rd or 4th pick in the draft, especially for the 5x5 rotisserie leagues. I firmly believe Reyes is getting much of his value is from his 2006 season where he batted .300, 122 runs, 19 home runs, and 64 Steals. That season was outstanding for the second year shortshop, but it should be noted that what he gained in home runs he gave up double in steals hurting his value in a 5x5 rotisserie leagues. On a three year average Reyes' numbers are a little more down to Earth averaging 67 stolen bases, 113 runs, 12 home runs, 65.3 RBI, and a .284 average. Now the plus side for this 25 year old star is he is the master of stolen bases, and has tons of potential to tap as he heads towards his prime in 2-4 years.

Now on the other side of this debate is Chone Figgins, a six year veteran who has hit his stride and is certainly in his prime. He is speedy and hits well for average. Last season he had HIS career year in a injury shorten season with a .330 avg, 81 runs, 3 home runs, and 41 stolen bases in only 442 at bats. There are allot on non-believers out there who don't think highly of Chone Figgins. These experts, that I'd rather not embarrass in my blog don't even think he's worth a #60th pick! What's worse is when I drafted him #60th overall in an expert mock draft on Mock Draft Central , I was ripped for it on the LIVE radio broadcast, something I obviously took a little personal. His three year average actually gives him some serious thought as to what he can do healthy. He averaged a .296 avg with 95 runs, 7, home runs, 59 RBI, and 52 stolen bases between 2005 through 2007.

You also have to consider the fact that he did that playing only 115 games in 2007 after playing 155 and 158 the 2 years before. Players had injuries, and Chone Figgins normally is a healthy player and not injury prone. That should not factor in your draft decision. Now lets compare the two 3-year averages side-by-side:

(avg, runs, hr, rbi, sb)

Jose Reyes .284 113 13 65 67

Chone Figgins .296 95 7 59 52

I can easily see that looking at the averages Reyes in three full seasons outperforms Chone Figgins in 4 of the 5 5x5 rotisserie categories, but that is not the debate. I'm hear to prove that getting Chone Figgins 50 picks later is far better value than using your early first round pick on Jose Reyes. Consider what Figgins' numbers would be if he played the full 2007 season and look at his projections for 2008. Also, consider some of the more overlooked minor advantages Figgins has over Reyes.

First off, let's put down our 2008 projections for both players

Jose Reyes .292 110 12 67 67(sb)

Chone Figgins .309 103 8 55 54(sb)

Now looking at our projections for a healthy 2008, I'd say Chone Figgins is a far superior value at the 54th pick than Reyes is at 3rd or 4th pick. Add in that Figgins plays in the American League, and that means better offenses, more runners, more chances to score and knock in runs. One reason I feel Reyes' number of stolen base number will slip a bit is the improved Met's pitching. A factor overlooked by many experts. When you are winning late, you tend to steal less, and the Mets won't need to steal as much this season with the addition of Johan Santana and several of their pitchers like Perez and Maine getting better in 2008. Also, consider the Mets improved bullpen. Another consideration is that while the Mets awesome offense hasn't changed much for 2008, the Angels improved their offense by adding Tori Hunter, and getting some key players into the starting lineup like Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar. That means the Angels are poised to run and score allot more this year. We all know both teams like to run aggressively, but with the Angels weaker offense they will be in much tighter games requiring them to steal more bases later in the game

Finally, position analysis is key between these two players. in most leagues like Yahoo! and CBS Chone Figgins qualifies for 3 positions, 3B, 2B, and OF. That is a huge advantage that can't be overlooked. Playing three important positions against Reyes who only qualifies at shortstop speaks volumes and in invaluable.

So when you go to draft in the remaining spring training think about this, would you rather have Miguel Cabrera or Matt Holiday, then get Figgins in the 5th? Or have Jose Reyes and another 5th round pick? Wait, what about them both?

Either way, when your 4th or 5th round pick comes along and you need a third or second basemen, you need to be considering Chone Figgins.

You couldn't make a safer pick taking the poor man's Jose Reyes, and you will certainly be getting more value from that 5th pick then you would with your 1st pick.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino