After Todd Jones FINALLY retired it looked as though Fernando Rodney would finally get his chance to close games full time. Throughout his career he has been given opportunities whenever injuries or ineffectiveness have forced the Tigers to throw him in the 9th. 2009 looked to be the year that he would be the undisputed closer from the start. However, the Tigers did acquire Brandon Lyon to help push Rodney and perhaps take the job from him. Lyon did get off to a good start last season before imploding late in the season, so I'm not sure how much competition he will be. Rodney has always had an electric arm that always results in a good number of strikeouts. He has battled wildness throughout his career however, which could put a hurting on your WHIP. The Tigers should have a much better season than they did last year, which means that Rodney should have plenty of opportunities to get you saves. I wouldn't go picking him before the elite closers, or even someone like B.J. Ryan, but as a low end second closer or a very good third closer, Rodney should be a very solid pick who will fill up your strikeout column if nothing else.
Often when a rookie comes to the majors and doesn't immediately become the next Babe Ruth, fantasy owners cast them aside as yesterday's news. Well, often players don't succeed right off the bat, as there are many factors that come into play in someone's success. Many times it is years before a player lives up to the proverbial hype, take Brandon Phillips for example. Well, after being touted as "the next big thing" last season, Jeff Clement came to Seattle and promptly fell on his face. Even though he hit just .227 and had just five homers in 66 games, there is reason to be optimistic with Clement. In his 2007 season at AAA, Clement hit 20 HRs and drove in 80 runs in just 125 games. After being sent back to the minors after struggling in the majors, Clement hit even better. In 48 games, Clement hit .335 with 14 homers and 43 RBI, giving us all reason to believe that he didn't lose his confidence and should bounce back. Clement has the ability to hit for a high average, hit for good power, and he plays a position that features very few stars. The Mariners have come out and said that Clement will play, and play plenty. If he isn't catching he will be at DH, so he should get ample opportunity to make us forget 2008. Chances are that the few solid options will go off the draft board rather quickly, so if you don't draft one of them Clement is a guy that you should target later on.
Fields first introduced himself to the fantasy world two seasons ago when White Sox 3B Joe Crede went down with one of his famous back injuries. Fields would play 100 games that year and swat 23 homers. He would also, unfortunately, hit just .244 and whiff 124 times. Back to the minors in 2008, Fields still showed some power, but still struggled some causing his stock to drop some since that second half surge of 2007. However, the third base job is his to lose this spring, and with only Wilson Betemit to challenge him, Fields should be at the hot corner for the Pale Hose in 2009. He has always showed good pop in his bat throughout his professional career, and there's no reason to believe that it won't continue. He does need to work on his plate discipline and batting average, but before 2007 he always hit for a solid average so it is very possible that he could get up into the high .270s. Now that he has more maturity and experience, look for Fields to break through and keep a stranglehold on the starting job for the White Sox for a long, long time. He won't bring you speed, but for those of you who miss out on the David Wrights and A-Rods, Fields is definitely a young guy who can boost your power numbers, and should be targeted very late in drafts, especially in keeper leagues.
After failing to land a proven option at closer, the St. Louis Cardinals are looking at a pair of young pitchers to fill that position for 2009. After the injury to Jason Isringhausen and the monumental failure of Ryan Franklin to close games, St. Louis was forced to give young Perez a chance to close games. He had seven saves in eleven chances in 2008, but the majority of them he made very interesting. His ERA of nearly 3.50 and WHIP of over 1.30 is far too high for a closer. However, Perez has an electric fastball, even if he doesn't always know where it is going. He struck out just over a batter an inning in 2008, but he also walked 22 guys in just 41 innings. Ever since he was drafted by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2006 draft he has been thought of as the future closer of this club, I just don't think it was supposed to be this soon. Perez is just 23 years old, so there is plenty of room for improvement yet. He will battle fellow rookie Jason Motte for the closer's role in St. Louis in Spring Training, but it is a battle he should win given his short experience closing the door in 2008. If he is able to win the closer's job, and hold on to it, Perez should be a big time sleeper for 2009 given the fact that his team is usually competitive, and he has been known to touch 100 mph on the radar gun.
When the Florida Marlins brought Josh Johnson off of the Disabled List on July 10th, no one knew what to expect. He was only 10 months removed from Tommy John surgery, while most pitchers take 12-18 months to recover from that type of procedure. Much to everyone's surprise, Johnson performed at an incredibly high level. In his 14 starts in 2008, Johnson gave up more than three earned runs only twice, and struck out five or more batters in nine of those starts, including a stretch of five straight starts. All told, Johnson went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA and 77 Ks in 87 innings. At 6'7" and 230 pounds, Johnson is an intimidating presence on the mound, and throughout his career he has always put up similar statistics. Johnson plays in one of the better pitcher's parks in all of baseball, and that should help keep his ERA down. As long as he stays healthy, and shows no lingering effects from the Tommy John, there's no reason not to expect big things from him in 2009.
Few players have had the strikeout totals that Kevin Slowey had in the minor leagues without an overpowering fastball. Featuring impeccable control, Slowey struck out nearly a batter an inning throughout his time down on the farm. Even more impressive is his ability not to offer the free pass. In 2007 in AAA, Slowey walked just 18 batters in 133.2 innings and allowed just four home runs. While his low walk rate has continued during his time in the majors, the strikeout rate has fallen some. In his last three starts of 2008 Slowey allowed 12 earned runs and failed to get through the fifth inning in two of them. However, Slowey definitely showed signs of future success. There was a stretch from late July to mid-September that Slowey gave up three runs or less in nine out of ten starts. Slowey also threw three complete games, with two of them being shutouts. The Twins always win more games than we expect them to, so I can easily see Slowey topping his win total of 12 from 2008. With the experience he will gain the more he pitches, we expect his numbers to increase across the board.
Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Projected First Round with Commentary January 30, 2009JunkyardJake.Com
#1 David Wright,NY Mets, 3B David Wright is certainly not the most popular #1 choice, but the reason we think he is worthy of such lofty status is based on his five category production, his durability and consistency, his surrounding cast and the fact that at just 26, he is entering his prime. These of course should be the primary considerations when picking any player at #1, and it seems that Wright conforms to the formula as well as any player this year.
#2 Hanley Ramirez,Florida Marlins, SS Hanley Ramirez will go #1 in many drafts, and for damn good reason, as he represents that very rare middle infielder that offers 30 HR/50 SB potential. Ramirez is a little light in the RBI department, with 67 last season, and his stolen bases dropped from 51 in 2007 to 35 in 2008, but that's about as critical as you can get about the Marlins offensive sparkplug..
#3 Jose Reyes,NY Mets, SS Jose Reyes does not provide the power numbers of Hanley Ramirez, and a fair projection for him is probably around 15, or approximately half of what we might see out of Ramirez. He does represent a more consistent stolen base threat however, and has swiped at least 56 bases over the past four years. So long as he can maintain an average in the .285 to .300 area, he should continue to be an elite fantasy player.
#4 Alex Rodrigez,NY Yankees, 3B You obviously have to respect Alex Rodriguez's illustrious career of producing silly numbers since about 1996, but the only caution here is that he showed some signs of slowing down last year as he dropped from 54 HRs and 156 RBIs in 2007, to 35 HRs and 103 RBIs last year.
#5 Albert Pujols,St. Louis Cardinals, 1B So much for the elbow injury that was supposed to slow him down last year, as Pujols proceeded to belt 37 HRs to go along with his amazing .357 average. You can't expect more than 5-8 SBs out of Pujols, but assuming that there are no adverse effects from his October elbow surgery, he is a clear top-5 pick in any format.
#6 Matt Holliday,Oakland A's, OF This draft spot for Holliday is based on the assumption that he can deliver at a pace commensurate with his production levels over the past three seasons with the Rockies. Of course, Holliday is with the A's now, so he has some risk associated with him, but if you believe that 30 HRs and 25 SBs with a .320 average is still a strong possibiity, this is where he should be drafted.
#7 Ryan Howard,Philadelphia Phillies, 1B It would be nice to see Howard get his average back near the .300 mark, but there is no denying his ability to help carry your team in the homerun and RBI categories. He should once again provide about 50 homeruns, with 140-150 RBIs in the Phillies potent lineup, and assuming a modest increase in batting average to about .275, he is a great #7 pick.
#8 Grady Sizemore,Cleveland Indians, OF Although Grady Sizemore's average dropped 9 points to .268 in 2008, he was able to boost his HRs from 24 to 33, and his stolen bases (38), as well as RBIs (90) were career highs. Sizemore's unique fantasy value is based on his power/speed combination, and at 26, he should be entering the peak years of his career.
#9 Miguel Cabrera,Detroit Tigers, 1B In his first season with the Tigers Miguel Cabrera started off slow in 2008, hitting only 10 HRs thru June. He managed to turn it up a few notches in the last three months of the season however, hitting .303 with 26 HRs and 79 RBIs over this span, and should make a very safe 1st round pick in 2009 by virtue of his high power, RBI production and batting average potential.
#10 Ryan Braun,Milwaukee Brewers, 3B We kindof suspected that Ryan Braun's rookie season was a little too good to be true, afterall, his 34 HRs and 97 RBIs over 113 games in 2007 suggested that he could hit about 48 HRs and 139 RBIs over a full 162 game season. He ended up with 37 HRs and 106 RBIs over 151 games in 2008, so Braun is no mirage. Enhancing his fantasy appeal, Braun also seems to have consistent 15 stolen base potential, so there should be no reservations about snagging him in the 1st round.
#11 Josh Hamilton,Texas Rangers, OF Well, we finally got to see what Josh Hamilton could over a full season in the majors, and the results were impressive. Of course it took Hamilton long enough to make it out of the minors due to injuries and general indiscretions, and the risk here is that Hamilton is just a shooting star. However, it's hard to believe that any player can hit 32 HRs with 130 RBIs by accident, and remember Hamilton was the #1 overall pick in 1999, so many scouts were expecting Hamilton to already have a couple seasons like 2008 at this point in his career.
#12 Chase Utley,Philadelphia Phillies, 2B Chase Utley can be such an asset to your fantasy team, that he deserves 1st round consideration in any draft. When healthy, he can generally be counted on for 25-30 HRs, around 100 RBIs, a .300 average, and even 10 stolen bases. Of course, we need to be a little cautious about Utley in 2009 as he recovers from offseason hip surgery. but the latest prognosis still calls for the standout second baseman to be ready on Opening Day.
Bats: Left Position: DH/1B David Ortiz is finally healthy. The last couple of of years Ortiz has been battling knee and wrist injuries. The last two years Ortiz has hit 58 homeruns, while in 2006 he hit 54. David will be 33 for this season and that is getting up there in age for a MLB hitter. The great thing about Ortiz is he is healthy, he only DH's, and he really plays younger then he is. He has gotten his tremendous power back and he will deliver for fantasy managers across the board in 2009. What I think will really improve is is OBP because once he heats up, Ortiz will see more intentional walks this year with only Jason Bay backing him up. However, with Pedroia and Ellsbury setting the table he can have monster RBI totals this year.
The True Guru Projections: 38 Hrs, 129 RBI, 99 Runs, .302 Avg, 1 SB
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our breakouts here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
James Loney was a sleeper last year, but he failed to live up to many of his abilities. I admit I expected too much out of him too soon in 2008. In 2009, Loney has a year under his belt in the majors and turns 25 hitting his prime years. He is first and foremost a batting average hitter. Once Loney fully matures he has the skills to hit .320 to .335 in the majors for several years. The secondary skill for Loney is the hidden power he possesses. He has power to dead center and right field. Last year he only hit 13 homeruns. We believe he can reach 20-25 homeruns a season. We don't think he will get that high in 2009, but 2010. Finally, for a big 6'3" frame, Loney can steal bases. Last year he had 7, and with the dodgers going a bit softer and even if Kemp bats behind him we see him stealing a few more bases in 2009. Expect good things from Loney this year, and don't worry if you chose him as your first basemen.
The True Guru Projections: 19 Hrs, 102 RBI, 75 Runs, .312 Avg, 11 SB
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
After two years of chances at holding down the Rockies starting catching job, and failing, Iannetta seemed to finally lock the job down in 2008. Although his average wasn't nearly as high as it was in the minors, Iannetta showed a good deal of pop in his bat last season. In just 108 games in 2008, Iannetta was able to hit 18 homers and drive in a more than respectable 65 runs. Was this just a one time power surge or is Iannetta ready to become the next legitimate power hitting catcher? Well, during his time in the minors he hit for a much higher average than he did last season, and in 2006 he hit 11 home runs in just 44 games at AA. Given that information there is no reason to think that he can't even improve on his 2008 statistics. Iannetta goes into the season as the undisputed starter at catcher for the Rockies and should be able to bring you great value for a guy that you will be able to get later in drafts. He will most likely be drafted as low as the tenth catcher off the board, but could possibly bring you statistics similar to the top four or five catchers in the majors.
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
Ok, 2009 has arrived for fantasy baseball and your draft is probably coming up. If you play in a 5x5 rotisserie league then you know you need a very good draft strategy in order to out draft your opponents .This year isn't that much different from last year for me. Last year I keyed on players who hit homeruns and stole bases along with closers. This year I'm keying on batting average and saves while keeping the power hitting, base thieves close by. I want you all to note that the draft is not everything. It isn't the end-all-be-all of your season. There is still lots of work to do and decisions to make during the season. However, it is important to get off on the right foot.
Batting Average In every draft strategy, you have to decide on what angle you want to attack the draft from. As I mentioned above, last year I focused on players with certain skills like power and speed and it paid off. This year is a tad different, but rather than focus on homeruns/steals (there is just a plentiful supply in 2009), focus on batting average. I love batting average in 2009 because it covers the field when it comes to 5x5 scoring and gives you the greatest advantage during the draft. You might ask, how does targeting one category give me the greatest advantage? First off, you need to come out of the draft dominating a category if you can. There are 10 categories, normally 12 managers. Someone has to be the best team for each category, right? If you draft more focused instead of targeting across the board it will give you an advantage going into the season. The first key is getting players with high batting average potential from the start and throughout the draft whenever possible. A player with a good batting average tends to have other qualities. I mean if he's getting lots of hits, can some of them be homeruns? If he is getting lots of hits, then he is on base allot and being on base means more steals and more runs? Finally, if you are getting the hits, there has to be guys on base at some point, so RBIs come across.
There is one more advantage for going for batting average and that has to do with what I said earlier about dominating a category. Having the best overall team average coming out of the draft gives you a foundation to work from and it sets you up nicely in the other categories as mentioned. For example in the first round, if you can avoid players like Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, or Grady Sizemore that would be great. Getting a Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, even AROD would serve you much better. Say you get Albert Pujols. With Pujols you get average, homeruns, RBIs, and runs. The key is you get average. Later in the draft say you get Jacoby Ellsbury. We assume he will get to the .300 mark, steal 50 bases, and score 100+ runs. So when your pick comes up for offensive players and YOU HAVE to choose between a few similar players, lean towards the high average potential (HAP for acronym lovers) guys.
Saves The save category is just as important as batting average only for the pitching side. Good closers always tends to carry a low ERA, decent WHIP, get 60-80 strikeouts, and notch a half a dozen wins or so. So in fact having a strong bullpen really gives you a strong pitching staff. We have always advocated drafting closers early as they hold as much value as some of the top hitters. Lets consider the two top closers for 2008 Francisco Rodriguez and Jonathan Papelbon. If you drafted Rodriguez early last year than you has a huge advantage in saves, which as far as I remember counts as one category or 10% of the categories. However, he also added 77 strikeouts to your totals and with the average starting pitcher getting 155 strikeouts that is allot of strikeouts to make a difference on your total. Finally his ERA was 2.24 and 2 wins. Papelbon was nearly the same only less saves. He had 41 saves, 77 Ks, 5 wins, and a microscopic .95 WHIP. Both closers pitched roughly 69 innings. Regardless of what some people think of closers, if you have enough of them they will make a tremendous impact on your pitching rotation and give you the 12 points in the saves category. They will also move you up the ladder in ERA, strikeouts, and even wins and WHIP.
So by dominating those two categories you can effectively dominate the draft and go into the season the front runner. Now, it's hard to come out of a draft on top of two categories, but those are often the two most overlooked categories during a draft as they are overshadowed by homeruns and steals. We do recommend that the secondary categories you should get are homeruns and steals, especially gem players who score well in both catyegories. If you have to give up average for a pick, do it for a 20/20 or 30/30 type guy. Clearly the best player you can get in a draft is a power hitting, base stealing, high average player. That is probably obvious, and that is why guys like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holiday, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, etc... make the first round. There are players later in the draft who will impact homeruns and steals as well, so never fear you will get your numbers.
Just a note, last year I won the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. Now, this was a 5x5 H2H format, but when the rotisserie numbers were totaled at the end, I won the league in a standard roto format as well with 96 total points. Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority finished the next closest at 91 points. Now, I'm not mentioning this merely to show off or brag. I'm telling you this because I scored the best in team average and the save categories netting me 24 points and a clear advantage across the board. Having those two categories wrapped up, I managed to also score big in Homeruns (10), RBI (12), ERA (11), WHIP (11), and wins (9). My worse pitching category was strikeouts (8). I'm not saying that dominating saves and batting average did all that for me. What I am saying is it setup a strong foundation for my team to excel across the board and limited slumps and absolute weakness in 90% of the categories. I did score poorly in SBs (4), but we all can't be perfect.
Team: Chicago White Sox Bats: Right Position: 2B/SS
Alexei Ramirez had a special rookie season. Allot of experts had their eye on the Cuban national and he did not disappoint. In his rookie season he belted 21 homeruns while stealing 13 bases and batting .290. He only played in 136 games, so if he remains healthy we expect him to play a full season. Ramirez also has value because of the multiple positions he plays. Last year he played 2B, SS, CF, and one game at third base. We assume he will play second base the entire season, but you never know with Ozzie Guillen. As Ramirez matures and gets more comfortable with MLB he will get better. He has tremendous pull power and though he looks smaller than normal, he has power. Ramirez set a record for White Sox rookies with 4 grand slams in 2008. He will have ample RBI opportunities and he will get plenty of pitches to see in that lineup. Consider Ramirez a rising start in the fantasy ranks.
The True Guru Projections: 26 Hrs, 85 RBI, 90 Runs, .307 Avg, 20 SB
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
Last year all the rumors were that Morrow would close. Why not? He has a 98 MPH fastball and a very impressive break ball. He did close and close well. Morrow collected 12 saves before J.J. Putz came back. They then threw him into the starting rotation where he nearly threw a no-hitter against the Yankees. Morrow is a very impressive 25 year old pitcher. He has excellent command of all his pitches and mixes them surprisingly well. The Mariners were smart to move him into the starting rotation as he will flourish there. We highly recommend you drafting Brandon Morrow. We see a fantastic sophomore season. He will continue to develop, so there will be bumps in the road, but overall he will have a great 2009.
The True Guru Projections: 3.35 ERA, 16-7 rec, 1.19 WHIP, 195 K
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
Last year Upton hit the scene in a big way with 44 steals. However, he disappointed owners with only 9 homeruns and a .273 batting average. Now Upton will start the season coming off of shoulder surgery and that will drive his value down a bit. If anyone watched the 2008 American League playoffs, then you saw what Upton was capable of doing and he did that with a bum shoulder. Muscling out all those homeruns and batting nearly .400. We saw a man maturing right in front of our eyes and you can bet he will continue his tear in 2009. B.J. Upton is a special talent. He has a very sweet and fluid swing that allows him to drive the ball to any part of the field. If he can stay healthy, B.J. Upton can put together an amazing season.
The True Guru Projections: 23 Hrs, 80 RBI, 104 Runs, .285 Avg, 40 SB
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
Aaron Hill was a player ready for a breakout season in 2008. Then a couple of months into the season he had an on-field collision with David Eckstein, which effectively ended his season with what they called a mild concussion. Aaron Hill is primed and ready for 2008 and at the prime age of 27 he can certainly do it. We look for him to be in the running for comeback player of the year. He is a solid starting second basemen and might even add shortstop to his available positions with a move to shortstop this season. Hill has 15-20 homerun power, and has the capability of stealing 5-10 bases. He has always been a good hitter, batting .291 2 out of 3 years. We see him have a great year and avoiding injury. His head injury is all but gone and he will be ready for spring training. He is a sleeper because of his poor stats from last season and because of his season ending injury. He should be available late in the draft and it would be a steal to get him after the 14th round.
The True Guru Projections: 20 Hrs, 87 RBI, 90 Runs, .292 Avg, 7 SB
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
The Angels always produce great young pitchers and in their stacked bullpen they have 24 year old Jose Arredondo. We thought he was the heir to the closer job with KROD leaving, but the Angels when out and signed Brian Fuentes and he is clearly the closer at the start of the season. Arredondo has great stuff and will be the closer of the future for the Angels or some other team. We think he will be the closer in 2009 for the Angels. Mike Scioscia isn't a patient man when it comes to his releiver. He will give Brian Fuentes plenty of time to adjust to American League hitters, but we don't think he is a good fit for the American league and will most likely be replaced by Arredondo by June. Arredondo throws a hard fastball with electric movement and a nasty breaking ball. His assortment of pitches keep batters guessing and it is exactly what closers need to have. His drawbacks are that he is young and is prone to slumps and probably doesn't have the mental make up of a closer quite yet. However, in 2008 Arredondo was 10-2 with 7 saves, and a 1.61 era. He pitched 61 innings as a relief pitcher with 55 strikeouts and 22 walks. The walks need to come down and the strikeouts are on target for 1 per inning. Even if he doesn't close he is likely to be the 7th ot 8th inning guy for the Angels.
The True Guru Projections: 2.12 ERA, 8-3 rec, 1.11 WHIP, 72K, 29 Saves, (14 Holds)
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
Kevin Kouzmanoff is barely a sleeper and on the verge of a breakout player. The reason we include his as a sleeper is we feel so many will over look him because of east coast bias. In his rookie season Kouzmanoff smacked 23 homeruns with 84 RBIs. His batting average of .260 was nothing to write home about, but in 2009 he will improve that. Kouzmanoff will suffer offensively because he is on a bad team in the Padres and plays in a pitchers ballpark, but he has the skills to produce even in that setting. Kouzmanoff has tremendous pull power and is a great breaking ball hitter. What that translates into is more hits and less outs. Most pitchers use breaking balls as their out pitch. For Kouzmanoff if a pitcher leaves one hanging breaking ball on a two strike pitch, its most likely gone. He did have a high strike rate of 22% last year, but we feel that will come down in 2009. Look for another solid season from Kevin Kouzmanoff.
The True Guru Projections: 26 Hrs, 91 RBI, 80 Runs, .281 Avg, 2 SB
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
In 2009 29 year old Matt Lindstrom will start the Florida closer carousel (as it's called) and likely finish it. We like Lindstrom and even liked him in 2008. Lindstrom fits the mold of a closer. His pitches are dominant. He uses a 100 MPH fastball and mixes in a 100 MPH slider and a work-in-progress split finger fastball. The only issue left for Lindstrom to prove is can he mentally handle the job. We think he can. The Marlins have retooled their team and should be in allot of close games. Lindstrom should see plenty of activity. The one downfall of Lindstrom and really any pitcher that heavily relies on power pitching is ERA. He will get hammered sometimes, especially when he relies too much on his fastball. His ERA won't be kind to you, but the rest of his numbers will.
The True Guru Projections: 3.41 ERA, 5-4 rec, 1.35 WHIP, 69K, 36 Saves
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.
Here is the Evan Dicken'sMock Draft 1st round for 2009 presented by Fantasy Baseball Search. Mock Draft Round 1 1. Hanley Ramirez - A strong statistical argument could be made for any of the Big 3, but the absolute wasteland of the SS position gives the #1 nod to Hanley.
2. Albert Pujols - A man among boys--eight straight years of first-round production and still only 29 years old.
3. Alex Rodriguez - Now 33 years old--but with Big Tex hitting behind him could see some additional runs, and let's face it, there's still no one better when he's on a hot streak.
4. David Wright - Wright is now, and likely will continue to be, the most balanced category hitter in fantasy baseball, and will likely go #4 in 95% of drafts.
5. Jose Reyes - Cross your fingers for .300, but even if not Reyes is going to lead the majors in SB and runs, and you can bet on that.
6. Ryan Braun - It's funny that all the major projection sites rank Sizemore ahead of Braun but then spit out numbers that clearly show Braun and his incredible balance make him the #1 OF in fantasy--especially in 5-OF leagues.
7. Ryan Howard - In an age when power is becoming more and more scarce, HR and RBI totals like these are wonderful. Just make sure you stay ready to compensate in speed and average in later rounds.
8. Grady Sizemore - At age 26, he is just entering his prime after a sick season--but do not overlook his .268 batting average, which was his career full-season low. He would be a top three pick if only he could improve that category.
9. Miguel Cabrera - Peripherals show his average is due for a rise this year and he will still be racking up the RBIs. Also in 10-game eligibility leagues, he will be 3B-eligible (14 games in 2008) which could be huge if you can get Teixeira or Berkman in the second round.
10. Josh Hamilton - With all the offense in Texas and all the prospects ready to make their mark, Hamilton's runs and RBI could be due for a rise from their lofty 08 totals (98 and 130). Don't rule out a slump but don't plan on one, because there's actually still some upside.
11. Matt Holliday - It's incredible how large of a dip Holliday's value has taken with the move to a non-Coors ballpark--doubt his skills at your own peril and don't forget the X-factor: he's a great base-stealer and is going to a team that believes in running.
12. Jimmy Rollins - He will still run and will still score a lot but the declining HR rate and the mediocre average put him a level below HanRam and Reyes.
Please continue to check our 2009 Draft Kit for more fantastic draft analysis, cheat sheets, and prospects research. Today we added 2 prospect positions, a expert mock draft, and analysis of that draft. Check it our here:
On January 19th, I participated in a challenging expert mock draft at Mock Draft Central. There were many great experts recruited for this draft, and I ended up with the 11th pick. Overall my strategy going into the draft was to walk away from the draft with the a strong team based on batting average and saves, plus come out strong in the homeruns category and if possible stolen bases. The first thing I had to consider was who I was drafting against. I know the tendencies of many of the participants in the draft, but not all of them. I primarily focused on the two experts directly before and after me, Jason Sarnay at the 10th pick and Patrick DiCaprio at the 12th pick. I know both those individuals philosophies very well, so I tried my best to use that to my advantage. Below is the remaining draft order:
1. Joshua Randall, Baseball HQ 2. Derek Carty, The Hardball Times 3. J.P. Kastner, Creative Sports 4. Jason Pliml, MockDraftCentral.com 5. Ray Flowers, Fanball 6. Tom Kessenich, Fantasy Sports Magazine 7. Grey Albright, Razzball 8. Eric Hinz, Fake Teams 9. Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Sports Empires 10. Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms 11. Todd Farino, Fantasy Baseball Search 12. Patrick DiCaprio
Please note that I was broadcasting this draft (www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru) for 2 hours to discuss my draft strategies with my listeners and I drafted with my co-hosts RC Rizza and Jason Swist. It was a fun, but at times a hectic evening. I will cover the expert mock draft by first explaining my overall draft strategy. Then discuss my thoughts on the two experts picking immediately around me. Finally, I will analyze all 23 of our picks and discuss why we picked the players and what we expect of them.
Overall Draft Strategy As I mentioned earlier, the draft strategy I have adopted for 2009 is to target batting average and saves for category domination. After that I recommend grabbing power and speed throughout the draft when it is the best pick you could make. The hard part of this draft is you didn't pick a bench, just your starters. Normally you have a bench and you can make some great pickups that become starters, but every pick was for a starting roster spot in this 23-round draft. It is always my aim to come out of a draft with a very balanced team that is strong in the right places. If you don't come out with a well-balanced team you are in for trouble and most likely you will be very active with waivers from the start. You have to also keep in mind that only one team can win the league (like I needed to write that!), so you have to stand out from the rest during the draft or at least its your first chance to stand out from the pack. Even know I'll never use this team, I drafted as though it was my own expert league team and used every strategy I would use in a regular league draft, holding back nothing. The key to any draft this year is balancing youth with veterans, batting average with saves, and homeruns with steals. Last but not least, taking chances on players who can have a breakout season, but could also bust. Nobody ever wins a league because they avoid players who have a bust year. That can prevent you from losing your league, but not help you win it (I hope that makes sense). However, in order to WIN your championship you must have several breakout players on your roster.
Knowing The Experts Before and After Me I drafted in-between two brutally smart experts in Jason Sarnay and Patrick DiCaprio. Even though they came to the draft well prepared and ready to pick, I felt I had a distinct advantage over both, and a really big advantage over Patrick DiCaprio. Both experts subscribe to sabermetrics, but Sarnay is fantastic at finding the sleepers and breakout players of the draft, while Patrick depends much more on sabermtrics to determine his picks. My advantage over Patrick was clear. I knew exactly how he'd pick because one of the many drawbacks of sabermetrics is everyone can use it and it doesn't change much from user to user. So as long as I was aware of the sabermetrics numbers of the players that were being considered, I had a good idea of what he might do and drafted accordingly. Even know I would NEVER use the majority of sabermetrics formulas, just like Patrick DiCaprio I have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus to get the great volumes of sabermetric statistics from them.
Draft Analysis R1p11 - Matt Holiday, OF (OAK) - This was purely my pick and I felt Matt Holiday was a steal here. Why a guy capable of 30/30 lasted till the 11th pick I'm not sure. I think many experts were afraid that with Holiday leaving Colorado and the thin air it provides that his value would go down. It is true that Holiday hit more HRs at home, but he also stole more bases on the road. I felt he would probably not hit more than 25 homeruns, but he could steal 35 bases. Mainly because of the strikeout masters that will bat behind him and the fact Oakland will play small ball. With this pick I was able to get a great average player along with homeruns and stolen bases.
R2p2 - Ryan Howard, 1B (PHI) - Again, this was my pick and a great one at that. This was given to be by the poor strategy of DiCaprio letting him slide to me. How someone could take Josh Hamilton or Mark Teixeira before Howard is beyond me. Howard did bat poorly last year average wise, but the two years before that he had a combined batting average of .291. Howard brings to the table monster HRs and RBIs. I fully expect him to rebound his average back up to .270 to .278. Basically, allowing me to get Howard gave me two legitimate 1st round draft picks. This did hurt my strategy for batting average, but gave me instant power and RBI. I'll get average later.
r3p11 - Brandon Phillips 2B (CIN) - Rounds 3 and 4 were the only rounds in the draft that DiCaprio gave me trouble. So far Jason Sarnay was drafting great, but wasn't taking the players I wanted so far. That will change later. I decided to grab Phillips over Matt Kemp because I felt he was a great pick in the 3rd round and would give me both HRs and stolen bases. I certainly see the 27-year old player having a much better offensive year and he should easily hit .285 to .290 with a better cast around him. I figured since Matt Kemp's ADP was around 40 and he would be there for the wrap around pick and I would get average, but he wasn't. Patrick robbed me of Mat Kemp and he was an outstanding pick. The funny part was Aramis Ramirez was the next guy on my list and Patrick got him with the next wheel pick.
r4p2 Francisco Rodriguez RP (NYM) - I gambled here a bit. I wasn't sure he'd be there the next time around, so took him early after suffering two picks lost before that. Still, my philosophy is to dominate saves and I got a great, and in my opinion the #1 closer in fantasy baseball. Saves were now in my corner. Remember, closers bring more than saves unlike what other silly people think. They lower WHIP, ERA, and throw in some valuable Ks throughout the season.
r5p11 Jacoby Ellsbury OF (BOS) - This was a great pick that RC and I agreed on. Obviously if you know me, you know Ellsbury was my #1 sleeper last year. I think this season will be even better for him, especially average wise. Last year he slumped after American League pitchers discovered his weakness for swinging at bad pitches. By late August he worked through and killed in September. I got him with the 59th pick. His ADP is 60.
r6p2 - Scott Kazmir SP (TAM) - This was one of RC's picks and I liked it. It was our first starting pitcher and Kazmir is a strikeout machine who is getting better each year. I have to admit it was very early for Kazmir compared to his ADP of 85, but RC exhibited allot of confidence in him for 2009 and that was enough for me.
r7p11 Cliff Lee SP (CLE) - Now I wanted Cliff Lee in round 6, but I went with RC's pick instead. This is where knowing your opponents is critical. I knew that sabermetrics was not kind to Cliff Lee and many experts doubted him. It was a risk letting him bounce for nearly 2 rounds, but needless to say I got him with the 83rd overall pick. ADP, 68.
r8p2 Troy Tulowitzki SS (COL) - Jason and RC were all over Tulo. He is coming off the injury plagued year. We all felt he was a steal in the 8th round if he gets back to his 2007 numbers. That was a risk we were willing to take.
r9p11 Mariano Rivera RP (NYY) - What many considered the steal of the draft, we all agreed that if Rivera got to us with the 9th round pick we'd take him. We were worried a bit, but Carlos Delgado and Felix Hernandez went right before we took him. We think we got the best pick in the 9th round and may have stolen DiCaprio's 9th round pick.
r10p2 Chris Iannetta C (COL) - On our wheel pick we grabbed our first of 2 required catchers as Jason and I fully supported this pick. Chris Iannetta had a breakout year in 2008 and we expect him to build on that for 2009.
r11p11 Edwin Encarnacion 3B (CIN) - This was a tough call. RC wanted Zimmerman, but Jason and I felt that Edwin Encarnacion had more upside and was a safer pick. He is due for a breakout year and these are the kind of picks that win championships.
r12p2 Nelson Cruz OF (TEX) - This was my first sleeper pick. I really loved what I saw from Cruz last year and I believe he has finally matured as a MLB hitter. He was our 3rd of 5 required outfielders.
r13p11 Carlos Zambrano SP (CHC) - Round 13th saw us unanimously draft our 3rd SP in Zambrano. Why he was still on the board in round 13th is beyond me when I'm DRAFTING, but I luckily got him at a high value. SO far I am in line for a big strikeout season. His ADP is 110, we got him at 155.
r14p2 Milton Bradley OF (CHC) - We stayed with the Cubs theme and hoped to improve our average, while getting some power and a tiny bit of speed. Bradley has great talent and was a fantastic 14th round pick.
r15p11 Paul Konerko 1B (CHW) - I have to admit, Konerko is not a guy I would normally draft. However my friend Cory Schwartz really likes him this year, and we all agreed that round 15 was a great value to get him.
r16p2 - Jeff Clement C (SEA) RC is very high on Clement and I like him as well. The great advantage of Clement is that he is likely to play DH, so in fact we got an everyday catcher. He is risky after a poor rookie season, but he is highly touted.
r17p11 Kelly Johnson - We still needed a MI player, and Kelly Johnson was ripe for the picking. I loved him last year and he is a rapidly improving hitter, and we think he was a great find in the 17th round.
r18p2 Joe Saunders SP (LAA) ON the wheel pick we got one of most astonishing picks of the draft. How was a 2nd -year top prospect for the Angels (known for great pitching) still sitting out there after the 2008 season he had. I know sabermetrics is not kind to him and that is why sabermetrics fails owners. Solid pick.
r19p2 Gavin Floyd SP (CHW) - This was my pick, and the other guys weren't keen to it. I knew that Floyd would hang out there. I felt he was worth the 14th round, but I got him in the 19th. AN absolute steal in my book.
r20p11 Jeremy Hermida OF (FLA) - At this point we still needed two more outfielders and Jason with RC's help found Jeremy Hermida. Every year is a possible breakout year of this guy. Getting an OF with 20 homerun capability in the 20th round is pretty good.
r21p2 J.J. Putz RP (NYM) - ON the wheel pick, Putz was the brain child of Jason Swist and RC and I agreed with it. We draft Putz to show that you should back up your big investment closers if you can.
r22p11 Cameron Maybin OF (FLA) - This pick was a bit of a reach for my final outfielder. Maybin has all the talent in the world and he's in a great lineup to develop it. Very low risk in the 22nd round.
r23p2- Brad Penny SP (BOS) - Very risky player, but not a risky pick in the last round. We needed a pitcher and I grabbed Penny who is one year removed from back-to-back 16 win seasons. He is also on a winning team and is in his prime.
Overall, I thing we had a fantastic draft. I don't feel that with this team I will compete much in batting average, and I was only able to get 2 closers. However, the closers I got were big ones and should keep me strong in the saves category. I think my true strength in this draft is HRs, RBI, SBs, Wins, and strikeouts. Clearly my team will compete in those categories plus saves. I want to point out that in writing this article I meant no disrespect to any of the other owners, nor sabermetrics followers. I was simply giving analysis form my view of this one draft. Please leave us comments and let us know what you thought of our draft. You can view the whole draft here:
Matt Wieters (S/R) -- Orioles -- There hasn't been a prospect this highly touted and ready for the major leagues since A-Rod in the mid '90's. There isn't a negative aspect to Wieters game. He's big, strong, a natural leader, hits for power, gets on base and is a plus defender all while playing the toughest position on the field. Make no mistake, Wieters is a game changer and is a symbol of a more promising future in Baltimore. Fantasy wise you won't find many catchers with his kind of ability especially in BA & OBP. In the coming years Wieters will be an automatic first round pick and won't last too long in your draft this year either. I suggest taking him early but be willing to keep him in reserve if he gets off to a slow start. Since he has not failed on any level he has ever played at it may take awhile for him to get adjusted to life in the big leagues. But when all is said and done, this guy will be a star.
J.R. Towles (R/R) -- Astros -- A lot of people are going to be down on Towles after he hit just .137 last season for the Astros. He remains a very solid catching prospect and without Brad Ausmus to fall back on, Houston will allow Towles to work through any future struggles that may come. Towles is a very grounded kid with strong Christian beliefs. He is a hard worker who will not let his previous struggles effect his mind the way many younger players do. His ability to get on base is rare for a catcher and we should see above average power numbers out of him hitting in a very right hand friendly ballpark in Houston. I believe '09 is a bounce back year for Towles and he begins his path on being one of the top catchers in the National League.
Kelly Shoppach (R/R) -- Indians --Shoppach will be viewed as a backup catcher for the Indians now that Victor Martinez is back but I am here to tell you this will not be the case. After a breakout season in '08, Shoppach showed that he can handle the everyday job and provide plenty of power and drive in runs from the lower third of the order. Martinez is likely to be moved to 1B and spend plenty of time at DH as well this season. Cleveland has a top line catching prospect in Carlos Santana waiting in the minors who is ready to assume the full time gig when given the chance. For 2009, V-Mart finds a new position, Shoppach steps in as regular behind the plate and Santana spends one last season crushing minor league pitching. You will be able to get Shoppach later in most drafts and pick up quite a steal in HR's, RBI and OBP out of the catching position.
Jeff Clement (L/R) -- Mariners -- Clement is going to get his chance this year to finally show whether or not he can cut it at the major league level. As a hitter I believe that he can. He has a good eye and has added a lift in his swing which has brought much better power over the past couple of seasons. KenjiJohjima is a better defensive catcher and will see his share of time especially if Clement struggles. But, Seattle will need to get Clement's bat in the lineup regularly and his power numbers should provide for a fine #2 catcher on any strong fantasy team.
Angel Salome (R/R) -- Brewers -- This is purely a selfish pick I must confess. But a guy I want you all to keep an eye on as this season progresses. Salome is one of the most unorthodox players I have seen yet has had nothing but success since he started pro ball at the age of 18. For starters, he is small at only 5'8" and under 200 lbs. He also has a unique hitting motion the will almost remind you of a right handed Ichiro. Salome has an unreal ability to make contact and has hit for high BA at every stop on his tour including .360 in the Southern League which won him the batting title. His defense is lacking a bit and his wild approach at the plate may not fly against top level pitching. But there is something about the guy that will bring a smile to your face while watching. He got a call up late in September which means Milwaukee is just as intrigued as I am about him. Salome will get a good look this spring. If he continues slapping the ball all over and getting on base he will break camp with the big club. If you draft early, I wouldn't bother taking him but do keep an eye out for him in the free agent pool come late April or early May.
Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Chris Davis (L/R) -- Rangers -- I guess you could call Davis' '08 season a breakout as he hit 17 HR's in just 295 AB's. Davis is a true power hitter in every sense. A left handed bat like his playing in the notoriously short right field porch in Texas is nothing short of the perfect storm. He is an absolute top of the line power hitting and run producing 1B who will also not drag your team down in BA or OBP categories. He is assured of being the Rangers starting 1B and will hit in the middle of the order with great protection in Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young around him. I expect Davis to have a very big season and finish among the top 5 in fantasy production among AL first basemen.
Gaby Sanchez (R/R) -- Marlins -- Mike Jacobs hit 32 HR's and drove in 93 runs for the Marlins last season yet was traded to the Royals for middle reliever Leo Nunez. The Marlins were blasted for not acquiring more for such a prolific power hitter but this is a clear indication the team sees Gaby Sanchez as ready to take over. Sanchez may not have the power that Jacobs provided but he has good extra base power to all fields and should collect between 16-24 HR's himself. Sanchez will get on base far more than Jacobs and hit for a higher BA thus will score more runs and drive in close to amount of Jacobs. Sanchez is a more complete player, the kind you love to have on your fantasy team.
Nick Johnson (L/L) -- Nationals -- I am aware that Johnson's days of being a "prospect" are long over as he now enters his 30's. But I have always liked the way he plays the game and feel that he could be a huge find late in most fantasy league drafts this year. After missing the '07 season with a broken femur (ouch!) Johnson returned to lead the Nationals in OBP and RBI before tearing a ligament in his wrist just 38 games into the season. Reports are that Johnson is taking batting practice and will be a full go for spring training. When healthy, Nick Johnson is one of the most prolific on-base players in the league. He also has plus power and above average speed rare for a 1B. Keep an eye on Johnson's progress this spring. If he remains healthy you could easily avoid wasting early picks on the top 1B and use late round picks to grab a great comeback player like Nick Johnson.
John Bowker (L/L) -- Giants -- Travis Ishikawa is likely to be the Giants staring 1B on opening day, but I see Bowker coming on strong this season. Bowker was a third round pick of the Giants back in 2004 and proceeded to hit for a high average in four minor league seasons. Before the '07 season Bowker put on 15 pounds of muscle which allowed him to put up a career high 22 HR's at AA Connecticut. In spring training last year the Giants staff had Bowker move closer to the plate which resulted in much better pitch selection and a drastic power increase especially to right field. Bowker is a "team" type guy who is always willing to listen and put in extra time to make himself better. His ability to play the corner OF positions as well as 1B will earn him a spot in the Giants opening day roster. If he continues to progress the way he has been Bowker will be the Giants starting 1B and a run producer in the lower middle of their lineup.
Bryan LaHair (L/R) -- Mariners -- LaHair is a bit of a mysetery but a good story nonetheless. He has been in the Mariners system for 6 seasons the last 3 at AAA Tacoma. He worked with Seattle strength coach James Clifford to develop a stronger base which seems to have paid off. At 6'5" 220 lbs. LaHair is quite an intimidating presence in the batters box. The 1B job appears to be his to lose though he will see plenty of time as DH as well. LaHair has dropped his strikeout totals each of the past 3 seasons, a very good sign for a young power hitter. Though his BA may rarely rise above the .270 mark, he will be a major run producer for the Mariners in 2009.
Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Laugh at it now and get it all out. How can I call Johan Santana a "breakout"? I will admit that his breakout status isn't that far from his expected projections, but we see him having a career year in 2009 and because of that we consider him a breakout. Let's start with his 2008 season. Despite have a great season, it wasn't his best, nor was he at his best. He had his highest WHIP in six years and only managed 16 wins. His strikeouts were way down at 206 and he walked 63 batters, the most in his career. So expecting better of him is possible and considering his final numbers of 2008 he is a clear breakout. At 29 he is at his pitching peak. Not only that, but the Mets have acquired a bullpen for him and consider this. If Santana had a reliable bullpen in 2008 he'd probably have 23 wins and the Cy Young. Because the Mets lacked a bullpen it forced Santana to pitch the most innings of his career in 2008 (late into game), and we expect his number of innings to go down in 2009 because of the newly installed bullpen. Finally, he now has a year under his belt in the National League and will fair much better the next time around against players he is now familiar with. Santana will have a career year and will win the National League Cy Young Award.
The True Guru Johan Santana Projections: 2.25 ERA, 22-5 rec, 1.08 WHIP, 238K
If anybody knows me, you know I take my closers very serious. Get the latest updates from our always copied, but never duplicated Closer Report. Here is our cheat sheet rankings for relief pitchers and primarily closers. We see some surprises this season with closers. Keep in mind we plan on updating it often up to the start of the season, so keep an eye out, and keep checking it.
Throughout the year we will be posting updates on closers. Here are three closer situations that we have some take on
Heath Bell - We all figured he was the heir to the closer job once Trevor Hoffman left. The Padres inked him to a 1 year deal through arbitration and are looking to lock him up long-term. Its his job for sure.
Roy Corcoran - Corcoran is the leading candidate for the closer job in Seattle and recently reported that he is confident he will get the job and that he can do it. We feel this job is still up in the air and it won't be decided till sometime during Spring Training, but we agree wit Roy. He is the leading guy for the closer role in Seattle
Chicago - Today Lou Pinella reported that Marmol isn't the shoe-in replacement for Kerry Wood. He will make Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg compete for the job during spring training. Going back to last year, Pinella loves Marmol in the 8th and a dominant closer in the 9th. The problem is, Gregg isn't dominant, so we think Marmol will emerge the closer, and Gregg the setup man.
Jon Lester is an outstanding mjor league pitcher. I'm sure many of you have heard his story of beating cancer and coming back. In his short career he has won World Series games, battled the Yankees head on in the biggest rivalry in sports, and he's thrown a no-hitter. It should come to no surprise that after we called him a sleeper last year, in 2009 he is a breakout player. Lester has great stuff and is developing into one of the most dominating left-handed pitchers in the league. In 2008 he handled righties alright, but absolutely dominate lefties with his cut fastball, fastball, and electric curveball. At 25 years old, Lester is hitting his prime and is firing on all cylinders. Last year was his first full season with 210 innings in the book. He finished 16-6 with 152 Ks. He pitched consistently well throughout the season, but was far weaker on the road at 5-5. We feel that Lester is poised for a huge 2008 in the 2nd or 3rd slot in the Red Sox rotation. As long has he stays healthy, he will battle for the Cy Young award and he will win 20 games. As he continues to master his pitches, his K rate will go up and his WHIP will go down. We have high hoped for this kid and he will be one of the surprise pitchers for 2009.
The True Guru Jon Lester Projections: 3.12 ERA, 20-8 rec, 1.17 WHIP, 168K
We have listed over 120 starting pitchers for our 2009 cheat sheets. There are lots of exciting new pitchers and many on new teams. Checkout what we think of this years crop of starting pitchers. Here is our cheat sheet rankings for starting pitchers. Keep in mind we plan on updating it often up to the start of the season, so keep an eye out, and keep checking it.
Blake DeWitt (L/R) -- Dodgers --DeWitt is on track to be the Dodgers starting second baseman on opening day, instantly making him one of the top breakout candidates at the position. Though playing mostly 3B in '08, DeWitt has plenty of experience at second in the minor leagues and performed quite well there during the Dodgers playoff run last season. With his position now settled, DeWitt will have a full season to concentrate on major league pitching and making adjustments to how he will be pitched to in his second year in the bigs. He has a very level left handed swing which creates few holes and allows for consistent contact through the zone. He projects more of a doubles hitter than a true power guy but will reach the 20 HR mark rather consistently which is great for a 2B. With his ability to get on base and developing power I easily see DeWitt creeping into the top 10 of fantasy 2B in 2009.
Alexi Casilla (S/R) -- Twins -- This guy is going to be very undervalued come draft day and that should be just fine with you. If you strike out on getting Pedroia, Kinsler, Utley or even DeWitt look for Casilla in the later rounds when you are in need of a on-base, run scoring base stealer. Casilla has shown great strike-zone discipline in the minor leagues and once he masters the art of hitting on the Metrodome turf should result in a .350+ OBP. Though Casilla only stole 7 bases in '08, he has twice stolen 50 bases in the minors and will no doubt be a factor on the basepaths for a Twins team that loves to run.
Mike Fontenot (L/R) -- Cubs -- Those who follow baseball closely should not be surprised by Fontneot's very productive second half of '08. Living in Chicago I see that even Cubs fans have no idea what they have in Mike Fontenot. This guy won countless awards while attending LSU including leading the Tigers to the 2000 College World Series along with his fellow Cub double play partner Ryan Theriot. Fontenot was a #1 draft pick by the Baltimore Orioles in 2001 and was their minor league player of the year in 2003. He came to the Cubs in exchange for Sammy Sosa in 2005. Despite his 5'8" 180 lb frame, Fontenot has decent power to go along with superior on base ability. With Chicago trading Mark DeRosa, Fontenot will be the full time 2B against righties while splitting time with Aaron Miles against lefties. This role will serve him quite well as he has always been a righty killer throughout his minor league career. Look for him to continue to feast Vs. RHP and get to the .290/.360/.870 levels with 15 HR's this season.
Emmanuel Burriss (S/R) -- Giants -- This spot could easily go to fellow teammate Eugenio Velez as both are exciting speedsters that will have my attention in spring training. Burriss gets the nod however for his ability to work counts and get on base. Burriss has electrifying speed as he swiped 68 bases in the minors in '07. He has risen fast in the Giants system getting called up to replace the injured Omar Visquel last season and wound up sticking around for most of the season. A .357 OBP as a rookie is very encouraging though the true test comes when major league pitchers adjust to his patient approach. He is likely to be the starting 2B in what appears to be the Giants attempt to build a speed orientated small-ball type offense.
Chris Getz (L/R) -- White Sox -- In case you weren't paying attention this offseason, Alexi Ramirez is now the Whitesox starting SS after a strong showing at 2B last year. This provides an opening for either Chris Getz or newly acquired Brent Lillibridge to start at second. I suspect Getz will get the call based on the teams love for his passion and work ethic as well as his on base mentality. I like the opportunity here for Getz to score tons of runs in an offense that is always among the leaders in that category. With sluggers Jim Thome, Carlos Quentin, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Alexi Ramirez hitting behind him in the order all he will have to do is reach base to be in scoring position. Getz is not a starting fantasy 2B but could provide some solid stretches as a backup in 2009.
Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Last year the Giants finally decided to go young and started bringing up prospects. One of those top prospects with Pablo Sandoval. IN the minors Sandoval exhibited power and batting for average and in 2008 continued to do that in his short stint in the majors. Sandoval batted .345 in 145 at bats with 3 homeruns. He won Rookie Of The Month honors for September and should qualify for two positions and by mid-season maybe 3. Currently the Giants have him slotted at 3B after playing him at catcher and first base last year. Sandoval is a big guy listed at 5'11" and a hefty 245lbs. He has very fast bat speed and a controlled swing. Another advantage for Sandoval is he's a switch hitter, and can get the advantage from either side of the plate. He should be able to maintain his average in his rookie season, but there is a worry that he could wear down by August, so keep a close eye on him and consider trading him mid-season. If he stays strong the whole year, he should have a great season. Also note he can steal some bases.
The True Guru Projections: 25 Hrs, 86 RBI, 79 Runs, .306 Avg, 2 SB
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our sleepers here
There are some big surprises at 3B with plenty of sleepers and breakouts. Here is our cheat sheet rankings for third base. Keep in mind we plan on updating it often up to the start of the season, so keep an eye out, and keep checking it.
Hey everyone. Get ready cause the big show is back for its second season. If you missed us last year, you missed some of the best award winning fantasy advice on Blog Talk Radio. Last season we gave so much great advice and analysis that my mother was proud. Whether it was strategy advice, debunking Sabermetrics, Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Braun, stoeln bases, closers, etc... We are coming back stronger then ever and funnier than we've ever been. Join me, Todd "The True Guru Farino", Ryan Hallam (http://www.fightingchancefantasy.com/), and RC Rizza (http://www.junkyardjake.com/) as we bring you no holds-barred fantasy baseball advice. We tell it like it is and don't kiss up to anyone. So bring your helmets and lets play ball tomorrow at 10pm EST at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru.
In our first show we will have special guest Cory Schwartz from MLB.com and we will discuss the impact of the off-season moves. We will also take you through our first round mock draft, and much more.
Join the Champion of the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Expert League Todd Farino and the runner-up RC Rizza and we lockup and entertain and inform for 90 minutes.
For tomorrow's broadcast of The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show we will be covering the first round of a 2009 draft and giving you our selections for the top 12 picks. I'm putting in my blog ahead of time so in case you miss the podcast, check it out here. However, we will be giving much more detailed information on the podcast, so catch the archive.
#1 - Hanley Ramirez (SS) Florida Marlins - In 2008 he was my first overall pick in the FBS Expert League. This year he is the first overall pick in all drafts. Hanley brings power, speed, and average to the table. Pros: 30+ homerun power, 40-50 stolen base potential, and a possibility to hit over .330. He is also in a somewhat weaker Marlins lineup, so you could see him running more. Cons: The Marlins lineup lost sluggers Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, so pitchers may pitch around Hanley more often. However, the Marlins do surprise with their prospects, so we will have to see how that develops. Hanley is also injury prone, but normally plays through it.
#2 - David Wright (3B) NY Mets - Had another banner year last season and at 26 he could be setup for a monster 2009. Pros: In a great lineup and is hitting his prime. He has power and speed, but most of all health. Cons: When the Mets slump, Wright slumps.
#3 - Alex Rodriguez (3B) NY Yankees- He is still one of the best in the business, if not the best. Pros: He hits for power, average, and is an MVP candidate every year. He also has help in the Yankee lineup with Tex being added Cons: Prone to slumps and his stolen bases are sliding a bit.
#4 - Albert Pujols (1B) St. Louis Cardinals - Albert Pujols is one of the best all round players in the league. Last year's MVP is 28 and going strong. Pros: Hits for power and can steal bases when needed. He hits for average better than any player in the first round. He can it 40 homeruns. Cons: You have to concern yourself with injury, but overall that is the only con.
#5 Grady Sizemore (OF) Cleveland Indians - Hit 30/30 last year, and developed into a first round draft pick. Pros: Sizemore is one of two 30/30 candidates in the first round. Cons: Not the best for average, and is on a highly inconsistent team in the Cleveland Indians.
#6 Jose Reyes (SS) NY Mets - Reyes regained his power stroke in 2008, but dropped in stolen bases. Pros: Steals an obscene amount of bases, and can hit 15-20 homeruns. He is the lead off man for a potent Mets offense. Cons: Highly inconsistent. You are not always sure what you will get from him.
#7 Ryan Braun (OF) Milwaukee Brewers - Followed up his sensational rookie season with a solid sophomore season. Pros: Entering his third year we expect his average to increase back to above .300 and he is developing into more of a control hitter. Has the ability to steal 20 bases, and hit 40 homeruns. Cons: There is risk in whether or not he can hit .300 and steal more than 15 bases.
#8 Jimmy Rollins (SS) Philadelphia Phillies - Had a injury laden 2008, but is still a premiere shortstop. Pros: He's a shortstop. He's coming off of a bad year that he still stole 47 bases, and two years removed from his MVP season. Cons: Turns 30, and he is injury prone lately. There is an issue of whether or not he can regain his power.
#9 Miguel Cabrera (1B) Detroit Tigers - Had a strong end to what was an otherwise bad year in 2008. Pros: One of the best overall hitters. When he is hot, its a frenzy of hits. Cons: Doesn't steal many bases anymore and is prone to slumps.
#10 Johan Santana (SP) NY Mets - He had a solid 2008, but with the Mets improved bullpen he could easily shred all other pitchers. Consider this, if the Mets had the guys they have now, Santana would have won 23 games. Pros: One of the best pitchers in the game. Over 200 Ks and 20 wins is possible. He will even throw a few complete games. In his prime at 29 years old. Cons: None.
#11 Ryan Howard (1B) Philadelphia Phillies - At 29 years old, Howard's average has been dipping badly. in 2006 it was .313 and in 2008 .251. Pros: He is a 50 homerun candidate and really the only one in the first round (maybe AROD). He can very well improve his numbers from last season. Cons: Hits poorly for average and is pitched around quite a bit, especially with Pat Burrel gone.
#12 Matt Holliday (OF) Oakland Athletics - Holliday is coming off his worse years in 2008 and he has been traded to the Oakland A's and a pitcher friendly Coliseum. We do know that he played through injury last season and that impacted his numbers. Pros: Hits for power and steals bases. The key for Holliday is getting on base, which he does allot. If he's on base he's likely to steal. 30+ steals isn't far fetched. 30/30 is possible because though he has to hit in the Coliseum for 81 games, he also gets many short porches in the American League ballparks to pound on. Cons: Changed teams and is no longer hitting in Coors field.
