Notes from the NJ First Pitch Forum
As I mentioned in a previous post, I attended Ron Shandler's annual First Pitch Forum last Saturday in NJ. I've been going for the last couple of years and love being surrounded by my fellow fantasy nerds, talking seriously for 3 hours about such an important global topic, fantasy baseball. It never fails to make me laugh when you step aside and really think about what's going on there!
Anyway, I've always found Rick Wilton's thoughts on injuries, injury risk players, and those returning from injuries to be by far the most valuable information at these Forums. It's not that the rest is bad, it's just that already owning the Baseball Forecaster and already using the same metrics that the speakers use, I find myself just nodding in agreement with most of what is said, rather than really learning anything new. With that said, let's go through some of the more interesting tidbits. I've gone with a note format for this article so I could quickly hit on many points.
-There is a large pool of mid-level (2nd & 3rd tier), high-skill starting pitchers this year. This includes players like Lincecum, Gallardo, Burnett, McGowan, Snell, Cain, Myers, etc. What this means is you could put an entire staff together full of these types for a modest price, while reaping the benefits of enormous upside. Of course, you could also end up in a league where everyone considers these players sleepers (a strong possibility), driving up the price of each and cutting into your profit potential.
-There is some burnout risk with CC Sabathia, as he posted his first 200 IP season, reaching 241, plus his postseason innings where he struggled. Could be a precursor to a disappointing 2008.
-Don't forget about Casey Kotchman. All he needs to do is hit more flyballs, and a 15-20 HR season is there for the taking, along with a .300 avg.
-Jonathan Sanchez is a nice sleeper in the Giants rotation. With Lowry's injury, has a shot to secure a spot. Needs to improve his BB rate, but has a nice K rate and of course the great park to hold in all his fly balls.
Click here for the rest of the article with more First Pitch Forum notes!
Anyway, I've always found Rick Wilton's thoughts on injuries, injury risk players, and those returning from injuries to be by far the most valuable information at these Forums. It's not that the rest is bad, it's just that already owning the Baseball Forecaster and already using the same metrics that the speakers use, I find myself just nodding in agreement with most of what is said, rather than really learning anything new. With that said, let's go through some of the more interesting tidbits. I've gone with a note format for this article so I could quickly hit on many points.
-There is a large pool of mid-level (2nd & 3rd tier), high-skill starting pitchers this year. This includes players like Lincecum, Gallardo, Burnett, McGowan, Snell, Cain, Myers, etc. What this means is you could put an entire staff together full of these types for a modest price, while reaping the benefits of enormous upside. Of course, you could also end up in a league where everyone considers these players sleepers (a strong possibility), driving up the price of each and cutting into your profit potential.
-There is some burnout risk with CC Sabathia, as he posted his first 200 IP season, reaching 241, plus his postseason innings where he struggled. Could be a precursor to a disappointing 2008.
-Don't forget about Casey Kotchman. All he needs to do is hit more flyballs, and a 15-20 HR season is there for the taking, along with a .300 avg.
-Jonathan Sanchez is a nice sleeper in the Giants rotation. With Lowry's injury, has a shot to secure a spot. Needs to improve his BB rate, but has a nice K rate and of course the great park to hold in all his fly balls.
Click here for the rest of the article with more First Pitch Forum notes!
posted by Mike Podhorzer at
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
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