Mock Draft Central ADP Analysis: SP Part 1

A look at over/undervalued players at each position.

After a short break from analyzing MDC's Top 250 ADP report, I'm back in action. Fortunately for us, Sport Fanatics has updated their list as of March 10th, which is what I'll be looking at today. Starting pitcher is easily the position with the most disagreement, and I expect my list of over/undervalued players will include some you have a differing opinion on. But as we all know, I'm right, and you're wrong, so pay close attention. I'm kidding of course, but I'll be focusing on the underlying skills that 90% of fantasy owners don't, instead seeing a name and a 2007 ERA and drafting based on those. This first part will take a look at the overvalued group.

Overvalued

John Lackey (52nd overall, 7th amongst SP)- 3 straight years of xERAs in the high 3's and a K rate that has fallen each of the last 3 years. Last year's 3.01 ERA (benefiting from a high 77% strand rate) and 19 wins is boosting his ADP, but his xERA was actually 3.75. His 7.2 K/9 is above average, but nowhere near elite and not high enough to warrant a top 10 SP ranking. The Spring Training elbow problems certainly don't help either. I had him ranked 18th among SPs for my last draft.

Justin Verlander (65, 10)- The final straw of his overrating came when I saw a poster on a message board I frequent rank him as the 4th best SP. The hype has officially gotten out of control! His walk rate is only average and he's a neutral GB/FB pitcher. His only above average attribute is his K/9, which was 8.2 last year. I get it, people are obsessed with his stuff and 257 MPH fastball. But we all know that whatever stuff he has will show up in the stats! Assuming a similar GB/FB ratio, he'd have to lower his BB/9 to around 2.5 and increase his K/9 for the 2nd straight season to 8.5 just to be worth the 10th best SP. That's asking a lot and certainly no one should be paying for that. Oh yeah, I had him ranked 21st among SPs for my last draft.

Carlos Zambrano (69, 11)- This one is too easy. A terrible BB/9, a declining K/9 that has dropped to merely above average, ERAs benefiting from BABIPs between .260 and .280 that could regress any year, and a zillion innings for a pitcher who's only 26. Even his once stellar GB% has declined for 4 straight years! His name must be the only thing right now causing people to draft him so early, because the skill set certainly doesn't explain it. Umm, I had him ranked 34th among SPs for my last draft. Yup, 34th.



Chris Young (85, 17)- .252 BABIP last year and .237 the year before. Does he possess the rare ability to control his hits allowed? Well in 2005 (while in Texas), his BABIP was a near league average .304, so I'm not so sure. I doubt PETCO could have THAT much of an effect. His HR/F was also a ridiculously low 4% last year. Think it's PETCO again? Well in 2006 in PETCO, his HR/F was 10%, so seems like last year was simply the result of great luck. He has a poor BB/9, increasing the last 2 years (but an improving K/9, which has probably peaked) and gives up a ton of flyballs. His xERAs have been over 4 the last 3 years. He also hasn't pitched more than 179 innings in his major league career. Add this all up, and you got a pitcher I have ranked 26th.

Fausto Carmona (106, 21)- No surprise here after the season he had. He has a solid skill set, inducing a ton of ground balls and possessing decent control. But the K/9 is simply too low and limits his upside. Last year's 3.06 ERA benefited from a .281 BABIP and a high 77% strand rate. He also pitched over 100 innings more than '06, increasing burnout risk. I had him ranked 31st.

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