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Thursday, July 30, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/30


Johan Santana threw shutout baseball for the third time in his last four starts, as he looks to have the kind of second half that he is famous for in fantasy circles. For his career after the All-Star Break, Santana is now 60-18 with an ERA around 2.71. If you have even considered trading him because the Mets are riddled with injury, don't do it. In fact, I would try to see if his current owner might be a bit down on him because of the situation in New York.

Jorge De La Rosa continues to roll as he won the nightcap of the double dip with the Mets and has now won seven straight decisions. He gave up two runs over 6.1 innings and struck out five. During this streak he has only given up more than three runs once, and he has struck out at least five batters in every appearance. De La Rosa has never shown this kind of consistency at any point in his career to this point, so I'm not sure how long it will last, but definitely enjoy the ride while he stays hot.

Johnathon Niese took the loss against Colorado, but he wasn't too bad. Niese allowed four runs over 6.1 innings. He had some control issues, walking four guys, but given it was his second start since being recalled, and against a fairly good offensive team it isn't too bad. Unless you are in a bind I wouldn't be using Niese until the Mets get healthy (if they get healthy), but if you are in a head to head matchup and perhaps you need a win or a few strikeouts, Niese might be worth a shot in a situation like that.

Luke Hochevar proved today that while he is making progress he still has a long way to go. After throwing two straight gems, Hochevar got rocked allowing seven runs over six innings against the Orioles. He is worth owning on your team, but you have to understand that there will be games like this and he will still get tattooed from time to time. The problem with dropping him after this is that he will likely do good again very soon, and if you keep dropping him every time he does bad and adding him every time he does well, you will never get the good starts.

Johnny Cueto lost his fourth straight decision, and has fantasy owners thinking about letting him go. I urge you to fight that because there is likely no one better in free agency. Cueto is still doing better than he was last year when he was a fantasy darling. He is striking out a few less guys, but his ERA is a run lower than it was in 2008, and I truly believe that he will break out of this funk.

Kevin Hart pitched well for the fourth consecutive start for the Cubs and then his reward was being traded to the Pirates. He hadn't been pitching deep into games, and he hasn't been striking out too many guys and with his move to Pittsburgh he loses what little fantasy value he had left. I would stay away from Hart at this point.

Rick VandenHurk pitched well for the third consecutive start, but given his history you should not be making a move on him. He has been up and down to all levels of the minors with some stints in the majors over the past few years, and he has never shown much of anything before. He was not a high ranking prospect at any time, and his career ERA in the majors is 6.50. I know he has been doing somewhat well, but it won't last.

Derek Holland pitched the game of his life, and nearly threw a complete game but fell just one out short. He has had a good start here and there but mostly he has been pretty awful and has been moved in and out of the rotation a few times. Holland does have a world of potential and was ranked as the second best prospect in the Rangers' organization coming into the season, so this didn't come entirely out of left field, but you really shouldn't expect this to continue.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

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