Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/25

Sometimes when you write about fantasy sports, it is important to admit when you are wrong. Well, I think it is about that time for me and Aaron Hill. He hit home runs number 23 and 24 today, and it is painfully obvious that he is having a far better season than I could have dreamed about if I wanted to dream about a good season for Aaron Hill. He is also hitting near .290 and has driven in 67 runs. It looks like Hill has a heck of a shot at 35 homers and 95 RBI. I still think there is a decent chance he struggles down the stretch, but I have to give the man credit when it is due.

I almost included in the article last night to count on the fact that Gio Gonzalez was going to get absolutely tattooed today by the Yankees. In his last start he had allowed 11 earned runs, and his ERA is over 9.00. The Yankees are rolling, winners of eight in a row. Makes sense right? And that is why, as they say, you play the game. Gonzalez was great today as he allowed just one run over 6.2 innings and struck out six. More times than not, you can figure that Gonzalez will struggle. He has been starting some and coming out of the bullpen some as well. His strikeouts are good, with 35 in 33 innings, but he is too unreliable to start each time he takes the ball.

Ted Lilly was placed on the 15 day Disabled List due to inflammation in his shoulder. Worse news than that is Lilly will be having arthroscopic knee surgery that will force him to miss four or five starts at the minimum. The Cubs are hoping that he will be able to return sometime in mid-August. This is not good news for fantasy teams, but hopefully Lilly will be back in time for your fantasy playoffs. Stash him on your injury spot if you can.

David Price is another guy that it appears that I won't be right about, but this is in the opposite direction. Considering the way that this guy pitched in the playoffs last season for the Rays, I don't think I was alone in predicting great things for the young phenom this season. He has had some short stints of greatness this year, but he has had more short outings than good outings. You really have no choice to keep Price on your roster. I can't blame you if you decide not to start him in certain matchups, but there is no way that you can cut him. Personally, I didn't draft him in any league I am in, but that was because he went before I took him, not because I didn't want him. But if I did have him, I would keep throwing him out there.

Are the Indians actually going to start to get something out of some of their young pitching prospects? In consecutive nights both Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey have both collected wins. Last night Laffey threw seven shutout innings and struck out seven to improve to 4-2, however most of those wins are from his time as a reliever. In 2007, Laffey was ranked the #5 prospect for the Indians, but he has struggled mightily in the majors and the minors. Even with his impressive outing last night, you can't add Laffey. Tonight, Jeremy Sowers returned from a stint in the minors and also threw seven shutout innings, but struck out only two. While Sowers has also struggled badly in the majors, he was always good in the minors. In six starts this year, he was 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA with 27 Ks in 37 innings. Even though the Indians are sure to be terrible for the rest of the season, Sowers might be worth a look. Unless you are really desperate, let him make another start before you pick him up, but definitely see how he does the next time out. Sowers was once one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball, and in 2006 was ranked as the second best in the Cleveland organization.

Chone Figgins is hitting and running like it's 2005. Figgy his his third home run of the season (second this week), and stole three bases, giving him an impressive 31 on the season. He is also hitting over .310, and this isn't anything that you should be too surprised about. The last couple years he had only played 115 games a season because of injury, but when he has been healthy in his career, Figgins has been an elite basestealer who generally hits around .300. With third base becoming such a shallow position, Figgins value is at its highest point in years.

Bobby Jenks blew his second consecutive save opportunity and has now allowed at least one earned run in five of his last six appearances. I still don't think that Jenks will be replaced based on this outing, but I do think the leash that he is on is getting a little shorter. For those of you who are in the market of grabbing middle relievers in the hopes that they become closers, Matt Thornton got a save the other day when Jenks needed a day of rest.

Rodrigo Lopez continues to pitch pretty well, but you still have to wonder about how secure his rotation spot is. Pedro Martinez continues to get closer to the majors, and the Phillies are still the lead team in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes according to rumors. But Lopez improved to 3-0 after beating the Cardinals, allowing three earned runs over six innings and struck out two. This was actually his worst of his four starts for Philly. I'm not a huge fan of Lopez, but the Phillies are rolling and he is hot. For a short term fix, I think he is valuable. If you think he will fix your staff's problems, you are likely to be disappointed.

After being a colossal disappointment Rick Ankiel has all of a sudden decided he wants to contribute. In the last three days, Ankiel has seven hits which includes two home runs and two doubles. With Matt Holliday now in St. Louis, either Colby Rasmus or Ankiel have to lose at bats. If he can keep it up, you have to figure Ankiel will be in centerfield, as he is also a great centerfielder.

Johnathon Niese got another start in the majors for the Mets tonight, and this time he made the most of his opportunity. In his previous two starts for New York, Niese lasted just two innings and had an ERA near 6.00. But he was so hot down at AAA and the Mets needed him after the injury to Fernando Nieve. Niese allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out three. In the minors he struck out more batters than he showed tonight, so IF he can keep pitching this way and IF the Mets can get healthy, Niese could be fantasy worthy. For those of you who are out of it and looking for a potential keeper, I would grab him on speculation now. If you are competing, I wouldn't grab him unless you are desperate for pitching. Niese is out a while, so unless he really stinks, Niese should be up for a while if not the rest of the season.

Can Luke Hochevar please decide if he is going to be good or if he is going to suck, because he is confusing me. He has actually now won four consecutive decisions, but in two of them he gave up a combined nine runs. Now, in the last two he gave up a combined three runs. On Saturday he allowed two runs over seven innings and struck out 13. Although he is likely to still be inconsistent and struggle to get a ton of wins because he is on the Royals, I think he is worth adding in 12 team leagues. He was a top ten overall pick and has a ton of talent. This could be his time when he finally figures it all out.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

Halfway Home

As the book closes on the first half of the MLB season, we look back at a unforgettable first half. So far, we've seen numerous injuries, suspensions, slumps, breakouts, and an abundance of young talent. As major league teams gear up for a second half run, we as fantasy owners must follow suit.

It's time to address your team needs, as well as the needs of other owners in your league. Throwing out a blind trade is an absolute no no in the world of fantasy baseball. Figure out what categories your team is lacking in, and what categories you can afford to give up. This is especially important in roto leagues, where extra stats like stolen bases will be wasted. Whether you win the stolen bases category by five or 50, you still get the same end result. If you can find a team who has what you need and needs what you have, you're well on your way to getting a deal done. It's important to always keep in mind what the other fantasy owner needs. If you consistently offer bad trades, you're really just shooting yourself in the foot, and in the end nobody will want to trade with you. When it comes to trades, name recognition is what most people use to evaluate a trade, but it's the superior fantasy owners who look past this. What matters most is team needs, for both owners. Last I checked, the name on the back of the jersey doesn't have it's own category in fantasy baseball. It's also important to keep an eye on the actual trades going on around the majors, which can help or hurt a player's fantasy value.

With that being said, it's time to review some of the first half happenings around the big leagues. Of course, Manny Ramirez has been all over the news with his recent return, and it appears he's continuing right where he left off. With the All Star voting nearing an end, Manny and Alex Rodriguez did not make the roster, a pleasant surprise to many. Although the voting process is highly flawed, it seems that the voters got something right for once.

As we've seen numerous breakout stars, such as Adam Jones and Adam Lind, none stand out more to me than Toronto's Aaron Hill. Hill, who spent most of last season on the disabled list is having a monster season. He is currently batting .295, with 20 home runs and 59 RBI. Although this pace may not hold up, a 30+ home run season and 100 RBI isn't too bad from a second baseman who was drafted at about 177th overall in ESPN leagues. Hill is not only a breakout player, but a comeback player, which makes his story extra sweet.

Two other comeback players who top my list are Justin Verlander and Victor Martinez. Verlander, who had a lackluster season last year is back and better than ever with a 9-4 record, 141 Ks, and a 3.59 ERA. Not only has Verlander been dominant but his pitch location is much improved. Last season, his K/BB ratio was slightly less than 2:1, not even close to the 4:1 ratio posted thus far. Victor Martinez is having a solid season after missing much of last year due to injury. With a .299 batting average, 14 home runs, and 57 RBI, V-Mart is a fantasy stud with his catcher/1B eligibility. Not only does he help with roster flexibility, he also gets more playing time than most catchers who sit out on regular rest.

Unfortunately, not everybody can come out of the gate flying. Jimmy Rollins has been a disappointment to everybody who drafted him, but is showing signs of life this past week. True, Rollins was drafted too early in most leagues, I guess an MVP award can do that (cough cough Dustin Pedroia), but is he worth trading? I say no, hold on to him if you've got him. The shortstop position is slim this year, and I believe Rollins will have a productive second half. He won't start hitting home runs like Albert Pujols or stealing bases like Carl Crawford, but the value you'll get in the second half will most likely exceed the value you'd receive in a trade. Rollins has a good lineup around him and is a proven winner. He is currently batting .224, with seven home runs, 33 RBI, and 11 stolen bases, but he has actually been swinging the bat fairly well. If he ends up with close to 20 home runs, 75 RBI, and 30+ stolen bases, I won't be surprised. With that, the average and runs scored will improve. I'm convinced that Rollins will turn it around soon, most likely after the All Star break. He may be aging, but his experience should help him bust out of this slump, and it always helps when you play for the reigning World Series Champs.

Remember, as the second half of the season begins, be sure to keep an eye on the waiver wire as well as what trades are being made in the majors. A fantasy championship is rarely won on draft day. It takes dedication and consistent management down the stretch to dominate the competition. Don't get caught sleeping behind the wheel, or you'll find yourself riding the pine.

2009 FBS Sleeper Player: Aaron Hill

Team: Toronto Blue Jays

Bats: Right

Position: 2B

Aaron Hill was a player ready for a breakout season in 2008. Then a couple of months into the season he had an on-field collision with David Eckstein, which effectively ended his season with what they called a mild concussion. Aaron Hill is primed and ready for 2008 and at the prime age of 27 he can certainly do it. We look for him to be in the running for comeback player of the year. He is a solid starting second basemen and might even add shortstop to his available positions with a move to shortstop this season. Hill has 15-20 homerun power, and has the capability of stealing 5-10 bases. He has always been a good hitter, batting .291 2 out of 3 years. We see him have a great year and avoiding injury. His head injury is all but gone and he will be ready for spring training. He is a sleeper because of his poor stats from last season and because of his season ending injury. He should be available late in the draft and it would be a steal to get him after the 14th round.

The True Guru Projections: 20 Hrs, 87 RBI, 90 Runs, .292 Avg, 7 SB

We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season.
Check out the rest of our sleepers here

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