Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/23; Congrats Mark Buehrle!!

Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game today against the Tampa Bay Rays. As much as I thought he would be a consistent performer, never did I expect this kind of season. Buehrle is now 11-3 and his ERA sits at 3.28. Although his ERA likely won't take an astronomical jump, I am expecting somewhat of a dropoff from Buehrle. He still is a lock to win 15 games, but I would be very surprised to see him get to 18. If it is at all possible, I would try to deal him while his value is at an all time high.

Buehrle's opponent, Scott Kazmir, had another in his line of good start/bad start pattern. He allowed five runs over six innings, walked three and struck out five. Here is what you can expect from Kazmir for the rest of the season. He will win his share of games, and he will look like Sandy Koufax at least a handful of games during the season. However, most of the time he will be very average, and he won't pitch deep into games. He will help you in strikeouts, but he will crush your WHIP. There will be some days, like today, where he isn't very good. He will give up too many runs and he will hurt you for the week. If he has ten starts left (which is likely not accurate I just picked that for round numbers), he will likely be lights out three times, average five times, and bad twice. I would nearly guarantee that he is better than any one in your free agent pool, so I wouldn't consider letting him go.

Barry Zito gave up a run in the second inning on a home run but that was it for the day as he improved to 6-10. He went through a period where he was getting some fantasy attention, but he is not someone that I would hold on my roster, even with this performance. He doesn't strike out enough guys, he doesn't win enough, and he has too many outings where he allows five runs or more. Against some of the weak hitting National League teams he is worth a spot start, but I would pitch him and ditch him against the Nats, Pads, etc.

Jarrod Washburn hates me. No matter how many times I call him and tell him that I keep writing and saying he sucks, he won't help a brother out. He threw seven shutout innings to improve to 8-6 and he now has four straight starts where he allowed one run or less. This was against the Tigers who are a pretty decent offensive team too. I will stay with what I have been telling you all since the beginning of the year. Washburn will falter down the stretch, even if it happens later than I expected.

Even though his ERA doesn't reflect it, Kerry Wood is actually on a little roll. Wood saved his fourth game in the month of July, but it was his first since July 11th. Wood has been a bitter disappointment to those who drafted him (except for him strikeouts), and especially for the Indians. This was Wood's 13 saves on the year, and there is basically no chance that he will get to 25. You have no chance to trade him and get anything but a Happy Meal in return, so all you can do is continue to have Wood in your lineup and going to church on Sunday wouldn't hurt either.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/6

I always give Derrek Lee a hard time and tell you that he sucks, so I have to report when he is on a hot streak. Lee homered for the fifth time in the last seven games, and has 14 RBI over that span. If you have him I would take this time to try to sell high on him. Even with this recent surge, I still don't have confidence that it will continue.

It was not a good night to be Johnny Cueto. Hell, it wasn't a good night to be any Cincinnati pitcher. Cueto allowed NINE earned runs over just two-thirds of an inning, walked three and struck out only one. Even with this horrible outing, Cueto's ERA is still only 3.45, so I don't see any reason to panic over this one incredibly bad start. Cueto is a young, up and coming stud. I know this outing hurts your ERA for the week, but don't put too much stock into it.

John Smoltz struggled again for the Red Sox, making it two of his three starts that he has been below average. He is now 0-2 after allowing five runs over six innings and struck out just three. I don't know how much is reasonable to expect from Smoltz, but he should be better than this. He won't be a savior to your pitching staff, but should at least be worth holding on your roster.

Brett Anderson had the best start of his young career, as he hurled his first major league shutout against the Boston Red Sox. Anderson came into the season as the number one prospect for the Oakland A's, but has gone through many of the same struggles that most young pitchers do. He has done a good job of keeping his walks under control, but he hasn't gone very deep into games and he has been allowing too many runs. However, he does have a ton of talent and should get better as time goes on. He is certainly a guy to hold on to in keeper leagues, so try to be patient.

Armando Galarraga had his best start since April, and perhaps he is starting to turn things around some. Galarraga allowed just one run for the second consecutive outing, but this time he didn't walk the entire ballpark. He was a pretty good pitcher coming into the season, and we all expected better than this. Don't go picking up Galarraga just yet, but certainly watch his next start. One more good turn and he could be worth picking up again.

Ricky Romero shocks me more with each outing. I have been telling you for a while now that you should have him while he is hot, but to just wait for the collapse to come. Well, it hasn't shown up yet. Romero beat the Yankees on Monday by allowing three runs over six innings and striking out five. It wasn't a great outing as he also walked three, but it was enough for him to collect his seventh win of the year against just three defeats. I stand by my philosophy from months ago. Continue to pitch Romero, but a regression is coming......I'm pretty sure anyway.

Randy Wells is the NL carbon copy of Romero. He is pitching well and you should continue to ride him while he is hot, but I see a regression in his numbers. Wells is a good strikeout pitcher, but his minor league ERA was always in the 4.00s. The funny thing is in the majors he has gotten fewer strikeouts, but his ERA is much better (2.48 after today). Perhaps he made some adjustments when coming to the majors, but I still say that he can not keep this pace up.

Alfredo Aceves is the front runner to take the rotation spot for Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees. Aceves has been pitching well out of the bullpen this year with a 5-1 record and a 2.25 ERA. He was always a starter in the minors, so this isn't totally unexpected. He pitched well at AA, but struggled at AAA and gets just under a strikeout an inning. Aceves will likely be on a pitch count in his first couple starts, so they might not be that great. He is not someone that I would add before his first start, but I would monitor how he does. Aceves was supposed to be a good starter, so if he is successful he could be worth having in the near future.

Jason Marquis is now 11-5 after another eight shutout inning effort. This can not be happening. Marquis is not this good and should come back to Earth whenever the spaceship brings the real Jason Marquis back from wherever they brought him. His lifetime ERA is 4.50, and I'm sure it will be around there again this season. Definitely a sell high candidate.

Jarrod Washburn continues to pitch so much better than he should be as he threw a shutout tonight against the Orioles. His record might be 5-6, but his ERA is only 3.08. I assure you that it can not last, if you look at Washburn's career, his ERA has been well into the 4.00 range in the last three seasons, and there's no reason that 2009 won't be the fourth.

Last thing of the night, there will be another Fantasy Roundtable with Steve Gardner and myself at the usatoday.com. I have talked about his Fantasy Windup blog for a couple months now and hopefully you all have checked it out. The latest Fantasy Roundtable will be this Tuesday at 12pm EST just like last week and likely last between 60 to 90 minutes. For those of you unfamiliar, this is different from a regular chat. Instead of throwing your questions into a hopper and hope the host answers them, this is a chat room type discussion where questions are asked and answered in real time. Join me and Steve and get your questions answered. It will be on the final exam, so I hope to see you all there. I know Jennifer and Martha were both there last week, so if you can leave a comment if you found it valuable that would be appreciated. Here is a link to last week's chat.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.