This weekend will be the last time to participate in a mock darft before pitchers and catchers report. This is significant in the fact that all of us have been using the mock draft based on flat out projections and whatever sabermetrics, hunches, or hometown inside information you may have.
Because of this, I have limited my participation in mock drafts this off season because many people are only using the mock drafts to enhance a view point or to inflate a player's value to throw you off track. Playing head games in early mock drafts is a poor lesson in futility that I participate in as a bystander only.
But now the preseason is over and daily reports will be coming out of Florida and Arizona. The news will not change the minds of many that are in mock drafts but those in between players that will win your fantasy league for you need to be disected and scrutinized. Not only that but I have to look at the sure things of the early rounds as well. With that being said, let's look at some players that I am going to take a strong look at during the Grapefruit and Cactus League season.
DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE INJURIES
Albert Pujois had offseason elbow surgery and is said to be 100%. As a Cardinal fan I want to believe and he is the consensus first pick overall. Don't discount the power outage late in 2009, I want to see something that tells me he is ready to go and lead my team to the Yahoo shower.
Jose Reyes is a runner with bad hammies. I want to see some steals or at least him go from first to third like the Reyes of old.
Grady Sizemore is said to be fully healed from abdominal and elbow surgeries and has already resumed baseball activities. After a subpar 2009 season, I sure hope so.
Aramis Ramirez has an ailing left shoulder and did not have any surgery in the offseason. I want to believe but he is a Cub!
REHAB OF A CAREER-TAKE NOTICE
Brad Penny is under the watchful eye of pitching guru Dave Duncan. Can he demonstrate he is a pitcher and not just a thrower.
J J Hardy goes to the Twins with a new start and a damaged reputation. As streaky as they get but in 2007 and 2008 he had 50 home runs combined. Still alot of power and only 27 years old.
Garrett Atkins goes to the Orioles as the forgotten man. He averaged over 100 RBI a season for three years until 2009 and is looking for a fresh start. This one time keeper now has an ADP of 269.
David Ortiz is 34 years old, had a nice rebound, but is being looked at as an afterthought in most drafts. People draft him and then write in the chat room, "I had to take him here (ADP 181), didn't I." Usually silence ensues.
HE CAN STILL PITCH, CAN'T HE?!?!
Joel Pinero was a great story last year but now he goes to the Angels and the American League. Skeptics abound and Joel is getting no love.
Rich Harden also goes to the American League in the hotbox that is Texas. We all know the injury story, can he make past 150 innings, let alone 200. We will find out in August when it is 100 degrees in the shade.
Erik Bedard seems to be letting everyone know that his three-quarters of a season two years ago was just a fluke. Seattle resigns, let's him know he is the third or fourth starter with a much stronger team. Do you believe? Not right now. (ADP 215)
The Entire Reds Rotation Johnny Cueto (ADP 217), Homer Bailey (ADP 283), Edison Volquez (NR) , Aaron Harang (ADP 291), and Bronson Arroyo (ADP 308) Volquez says he will pitch in 2010 but with a rotation like this, I am not sure I want him too. The Reds think they will be better but someone will have to step up and be the man.
SOMEBODY SIGN ME PLEASE
Felipe Lopez fired Scott Boras. He might find a job now
Willy Taveras was release by the A's last week. Didn't he used to be a base stealer extraordiare not too long ago.
Carlos Delgado is old but still wants to play. Get in line
John Smoltz is old but still wants to play. Get in line
This list just scratches the surface but I love the intrigue of this season. This is the most volatile offseason I think I have ever seen. There just doesn't seem to be very many sure things in 2010.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Matt Holliday was traded today to the St. Louis Cardinals for prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. Holliday now goes back to the National League, back to a team with a chance to win, and he is now hitting right behind Albert Pujols. All of these factors lead me to believe that Holliday will have a great end of the season. Now, you can't expect his numbers back from his days with Colorado, but I definitely think he will be better than he was in Oakland. St. Louis isn't Coors Field, but it is better for hitters than Oakland is. If you have been holding Holliday all year long, today is a day for a small celebration. Holliday had his own celebration by having a four hit night against the Phillies.
Even though he faltered in the eighth inning, Joba Chamberlain pitched well and Phil Coke bailed him out. Joba lasted seven innings and threw just over 100 pitches, allowing just one run and striking out six. This is the second consecutive start that Chamberlain has gotten into the seventh inning, after three straight of not being able to complete six. I hate to be a buzzkill, but I have to report what I hear. On NY sports talk radio today all the chatter was about the return of the Joba Rules and how many innings the Yankees were going to let him throw. It seems the limit is somewhere near 150 innings. Well, with his seven tonight, that brings Joba to 102 for the season. You don't need a math degree to figure out that he won't be starting for the rest of the season. So, is does he go back to the bullpen? Do they just shut him down? It is very unlikely they stop him from pitching. I would think he has seven or eight starts left in him and then he's back to the pen. But if the Yankees are scratching for a playoff spot and he keeps pitching like this, perhaps they will let him continue to start, but from what I heard today that is highly unlikely. With Mariano as the closer and Hughes seemingly entrenched in the eighth inning, I'm not sure what kind of role Chamberlain would have in that Yankee pen.
Carlos Guillen played in a game for the first time for the Tigers since May 4th, and he did pretty good. Guillen was DHing for Detroit in both games of a doubleheader on Friday, and he collected three hits combined in the games, including a home run. He had an injury riddled 2008 season that saw his statistics go in the toilet, but the guy can still hit. Unfortunately, he likely won't get regular playing time right away, so if you do make a move to pick him up, don't be surprised if he gets some regular days off the first few weeks. I wouldn't expect too much from Guillen for the rest of this year, but maybe over the last four to five weeks of the season when he is feeling better he might have a hot streak in him.
Aramis Ramirez had four hits, including his second home run since the All-Star Break, maybe he will be OK. I have been very leery of Aramis since he came back from the Disabled List since I read quotes from him that he didn't expect to hit for much power for the rest of the year due to his shoulder injury. Today he goes out and hits two doubles and a homer. Given his career history I suppose you have to figure that he will be ok and play him every day. I only own him in one league, and of course he was on my bench today. He won't be tomorrow.
Congratulations to Padres' rookie Mat Latos for collecting his first career victory in the major leagues in just his second start. Latos allowed just two runs over 5.2 innings and struck out five. Latos is the Padres best pitching prospect who made the big jump from AA all the way to the majors. He is only 21 years old, so even though he has a ton of talent, my guess is that the rest of 2009 will be full of ups and downs for Latos. In keeper leagues and deeper seasonal leagues he is worth the risk, but if you are in a 12 team league I would think there are safer options out there. At worst he will help you with strikeouts, the rest of the categories are a crap shoot right now.
This may be a little late, but for those of you who don't pay attention to the box scores every night, it appears that J.P. Howell has taken over as the Rays closer. He collected his 11th save of the year tonight, and his fifth this month. The Rays are back to their winning ways, so if he is available and you need saves, I would certainly jump on that bandwagon for as long as it lasts. He allowed just three earned runs in June and July combined, and they all came in one outing. He also has 58 Ks in just 47 innings.
Manny Parra screwed everyone who started him today. After allowing just one run in his first two starts after coming back from the minors, Parra gave up four runs over five innings against the Braves who don't exactly have Murderer's Row for a batting order. While he should be better than he was to start the season, it appears that the inconsistency that has been the trademark of his career will continue.
Am I wrong on Martin Prado? While he seems to be one of the most added players in fantasy over the last month, I am still resisting that temptation. Prado had two hits on Friday, including a three run home run. He initially got fantasy attention because of his multi-position eligibility, but he has hit great in July. He has only gone hitless in two games the entire month of July so far, and he has 11 RBI this month. He never showed much power or much speed in his five years in the minors, so I'm not sure where this production is coming from. I can't say it is a bad idea to pick him up while he is hot, but just make sure you aren't giving up anyone that is too good, and don't be shocked if this nice run drops off.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Josh Hamilton finally hit his first home run and stole his first base since returning from the Disabled List, and he did them both in the same game. Hamilton was 3/4 and drove in three runs, calming some of his fantasy owners' fears that he would not return to the form we are accustomed to after his many injuries this year. It is just one game, but this is a step in the right direction. The guy was a monster last year, if he is healthy, and we have to believe he is, he should mash in the second half.
Chris Carpenter continues his magical season with another dominating performance against the Diamondbacks on Friday. Carpenter scattered seven hits over eight innings and struck out seven batters. He is now 8-3 with an ERA of only 2.26 and a WHIP of 0.88. He was a large injury risk coming into the season, but for those of you with some stones, he is paying off big time. I certainly hope I don't need to say that Carpenter is a must start every single game he is in.
Clay Buchholz pitched very well for himself, and now the question is whether he will be able to stay in the big leagues or whether he will be headed right back down to Pawtucket. Buchholz allowed only one run over 5.2 innings, walked three and struck out three. It wasn't dominant, but it was obviously more than the Sox needed. He certainly deserves to stay with the big club, but barring a trade of Brad Penny or an injury somewhere, I have to think that he is going back down. Man, I hope I'm wrong!
Aramis Ramirez hit his first homer since May 6th, and it was his first since coming back from injury. He is a perpetual 30 home run guy, and although he won't get there this year, he should have a good second half of the year. Look for Aramis to threaten to hit 20 homers, but I believe he will fall a little short.
Ricky Romero was able to strike out eight batters on Friday, but he couldn't even get through the fifth inning, and he also walked five guys. Romero allowed four runs, and his WHIP went up over 1.30. I have been skeptical of him all season long, and to this point he has proven me wrong. Is this the start of a bad streak? I don't wish that on anyone, but I would not be surprised if he had a bad stretch at the end of July.
Edwin Encarnacion homered for the second straight game, and is now 7/7 in the two games after the All-Star Break. If all goes well, Edwin could hit ten or twelve more homers before the end of the year, and he is worth at least a bench spot on your team, I just wouldn't put much stock in him. He is helped by the fact that there are about four good 3Bs this year.
Martin Prado continues to hit, and I continue not to buy in to it. Prado doubled and homered on Friday, raising his season average to .330. He has certainly gotten a stranglehold on the second base job for Atlanta and he has five multi-hit games in the last eight. This is the first chance in his career to get regular at bats and he is certainly making the most of it, but I really don't see this trend continuing. You might be able to sell high on him while he is hot.
Chad Billingsley had his worst outing of the season by far, as he didn't even get out of the second inning. Billingsley was pounded for six runs and didn't strikeout a batter. This is his second straight HORRIBLE start. However, there is no indication that anything is wrong with Billingsley physically, so you have to continue to pitch him every fifth day. He has to turn this around sometime soon, he is too good to pitch this poorly.
Alex Gordon was back in the lineup for the first time since April 15th, and he was able to contribute a single. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from him in the second half of this season. Chances are he will continue to disappoint, not only has he not played in three months, but I have also read that he is coming back at less than 100%. If you have a roster spot that is just rotting he is worth a flier, but other than that I would leave him be.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
Wandy Rodriguez continues to pitch quite impressively at home, as he threw a complete game shutout on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, striking out 11. Wandy is a guy that I have learned to have more faith in this season, especially at Minute Maid (which is surprising considering some of its dimensions). He is a guy that I have on a few of my teams, generally as my fifth starter. Even if your staff is good, he is worth picking up for a good, home matchup from time to time. When he's on, Rodriguez can deal.
Chris Volstad is impossible to figure out. Volstad had lost six of his last seven decisions, and then all of a sudden (when I benched him!) he goes out and throws a shutout. In his last outing, he only lasted three innings against the PIRATES! Why would I have started him, or anyone for that matter, against the Giants who have been hitting. I still really like Volstad, and he is one of the better young pitchers in Florida, but he is going to have his moments that will make you want to touch that drop button.
Jorge De La Rosa won his fourth straight start, allowing three runs over 6.1 innings and struck out five. He has been an incredibly streaky guy. He started the season by losing his first six decisions. Since then he has gone 6-1. Which guy is the real one? Your guess is as good as mine. If nothing else he will get you a pretty good number of strikeouts, so even when he is bad he will help you in one category. However, even with this win his ERA sits at 5.03 and his WHIP is 1.43, mostly because of too many walks.
Chad Gaudin is another pitcher that you can look at if you really need strikeouts. He is on a roll lately, but this one won't last. Tonight Gaudin allowed just one run over 6.2 innings and struck out seven. That now makes it four of his last five starts that he allowed three runs or less. He mostly pitched out of the bullpen (ineffectively) last season, and wasn't a good starter for the A's back in 2007. Put that together with the fact that he pitches for the Padres and that makes him a guy that you can't put too much stock in. You can expect strikeouts, but not much else.
David Hernandez is one of the good young arms that the Orioles have coming through their farm system. He might be the worst of the group, but that doesn't mean he won't be good. Hernandez had a good minor league career, with a record of 15-6 record, and ERA under 3.00 and 245 Ks in 198 innings. So far in his last three starts in the majors, Hernandez has looked pretty good. The strikeouts haven't been there, but he allowed just two runs over six innings against the Mariners. He has also been walking too many guys, but his control should improve as he gets more comfortable and could be a guy who has a solid second half.
Homer Bailey was good again, even though he wasn't in line for a win. Bailey allowed just two runs over six innings and struck out six. The best part of the start was that Bailey didn't walk anyone. His control has been by far the biggest problem, and if he can continue to pitch like this, perhaps he will finally start to live up to all of the hype that was given to him when he was in the minors.
Scott Kazmir had his first bad start since coming back from the Disabled List, and BOY was it bad. Kazmir allowed seven runs over 6.1 innings, but kept his control walking only two and striking out four. Feel free to start Kazmir like you would have before his injury. He was good most of the time, but was prone to this kind of outing once in a while.
I know I promised I would never talk about him again, but I feel it is worth mentioning that Oliver Perez was back for the Mets, and was his usual self. It was like Oliver never left. He only allowed two runs over five innings against a great Dodgers' team and actually collected the win. However, like I said, the same old Oliver showed up. Perez walked seven guys over his five innings and threw 108 pitches in that span. He is worth a look if you are desperate, but don't put too much stock in this one outing, he has always pitched good against good teams.
Martin Prado continues to hit for the Braves, accumulating another two knocks and drove in his 16th run of the year. He had 17 hits over the last eight games, and has been on fire since being named the starter at second. I would consider using him as a short-term replacement for a middle infield spot, but I still don't have faith that he will keep this up for the rest of the year. He never showed much power or speed in the minors, so I think this is just a hot streak, and in a month we won't be talking about Prado anymore.
Andruw Jones had three homers on Wednesday, giving him 14 on the season. I don't think that this is a guy that you want to focus on. He does have seven homers in his past ten games, but even with that production, Jones is still not playing every day. This is a good story that he was able to find his talent again in Texas, but I still don't believe Jones to be fantasy worthy unless you are in an AL-only league.
Ervin Santana was bad again, and now the question comes "what should you do with him?" I would say this; While I don't have him in any league, I have to admit that it would be difficult for me to keep him on my roster considering the way he has been pitching. However, what are your options in free agency? If there is a solid pitcher out there that probably shouldn't have been dropped, then go ahead and drop him. If you are thinking of picking up Oliver Perez or Chad Gaudin or someone like that, I would hold on to Santana. The leash he would be on couldn't get any shorter though.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
The calendar says we are half way home, how are you doing in your leagues this year? We are now through April, May and June with July, August and September yet to go.
Adam Lind hit his 16th homer of the year, and the questions will arise again about his future. Is this a breakout season for Lind or just a one year wonder. I think it is somewhere in the middle. While I feel that Lind is going to be a quality player going forward, I don't think that he will be a consistent 30-35 homer kind of guy. Lind has a heck of a chance to get to 30 jacks this year, but he is on pace for 35+ and I can't see him reaching that.
Leo Nunez looks like he is now healthy enough to be the closer for the Marlins as long as Lindstrom will be out. After Dan Meyer got the first few chances, Nunez has gotten the last couple saves and he is looking pretty good. Nunez didn't allow a hit or a walk and struck out two. If for some reason he hasn't been added in your league, absolutely pick him up.
Jordan Zimmerman was good again, but again the Nationals weren't good enough to get him a win to show for his effort. Zimmerman allowed two runs over six innings and struck out six. The kid has five straight starts that he has allowed two runs or less. Unfortunately he has only one win to show for it. He is a good pitcher to own....unless you need wins.
Ricky Romero continues to pitch well, but for some reason I'm still not jumping on the bandwagon. Romero has an ERA under 3.00, WHIP of 1.24, and he is 6-3. What is there not to like? I still go back to his minor league statistics. I know that you can't put total stock in those numbers, but I can't forget them. I have picked him up and pitched him, but I am just waiting for the implosion.
The Orioles might have blown his win, but Brad Bergeson pitched well yet again. Bergeson allowed just one run over eight innings and struck out six. After allowing four runs to the Nationals on May 24th, Bergeson's ERA was 5.49. Seven starts and four straight wins later, Bergeson's ERA is now sitting at 3.53. Now I feel the need to point out that he faced Philly (his bad start), the Mariners twice, Atlanta, and Washington during this streak, but today was versus the Red Sox. I am not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet, but I have poured it into the glass.
Mike Pelfrey gave the Mets just what they needed, a huge outing from a starting pitcher. He threw 7.2 shutout innings, walked just two and struck out six. It was his best and longest outing in quite a while, and although I would like to trust Pelfrey, I am not adding him to my teams. The Mets are just so riddled by injuries right now that I don't trust that they can put any kind of consistent offense together (like tonight's one run), and thus their starters have to be perfect in order to win. He's decent, not great, but certain times he is very good. I wish you luck figuring out when those times might be.
Jason Hammel has been a great addition to the Rockies pitching staff, but I still do not have enough faith in him to start him every time out. He pitched a full eight innings today, allowed just one run and struck out five. He didn't deserve the loss that dropped his record to 5-4, but that is where he stands. He has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last ten starts, but his career numbers say that this is not for real. His ERA has been well into the 5.00s throughout his career, so there has to be a correction to this great run that he is on.
Dallas Braden now has nine straight starts that he has allowed three runs or less, the problem being that tonight was his first win in his last five starts. He also isn't a huge strikeout pitcher, so his value is limited. He is helping you in ERA and WHIP (1.26), but wins and Ks he isn't bringing much to the table. Braden is a decent guy to have as your sixth pitcher, but if he is higher than that, you may need to improve your pitching staff.
Randy Wells is another guy who has been pitching pretty well that I am just not sold on based on his minor league statistics. Explain to me how a guy who had three seasons of an ERA over 4.00 and didn't even start exclusively can come up and get major league hitters out. It just doesn't add up to me. However, you can not argue with the fact that he has won three straight starts and has an ERA under 2.50. I'm standing by my opinion that Wells will come back to earth sometime in the near future.
Jose Contreras had a great outing after it seemed he was going back to being the average pitcher that we all know him as. Contreras threw eight innings, allowed two runs and struck out eight. I do not put any stock into Contreras going forward. He might be 56 years old for all we know, and I don't trust him to pitch well consistently. Don't fall into the trap.
I mentioned on tonight's Fantasy Baseball Tonight podcast that Erik Bedard might pitch on Saturday. That has now been edited that he will throw a simulated game on Friday, and could start on Tuesday now against the Orioles. He would be on a pitch limit of 80, and this start is not set in stone yet, so don't go activating Bedard just yet.
As of now Brandon Webb will avoid shoulder surgery and hopes to return in September. I am skeptical that a team going nowhere will bring back their ace pitcher with just a few weeks left. If you have DL spots left I would stash him, but if not, I am torn about what to do with him.
Aramis Ramirez will begin a rehab assignment on Friday and hopes to return ot the Cubs lineup on Monday. A guy like Aramis who has a history of injury could possibly have setbacks before he is activated, but as of now you might get your 3B back next week.
Nelson Cruz left tonight's game with a stiff back, and it is too soon to know if this injury will cost him any time. I never like to see an athlete have trouble with his back, so I am a bit concerned, but I am not ready to give any advice out until I hear more. Hopefully Cruz won't have to miss any games.
Alexei Ramirez also left the game tonight with an injured finger and his manager has already said that he will sit out Thursday's game. Ramirez has really turned it on this month, so his fantasy owners (me included) are really hoping that this is nothing. He is also supposed to undergo x-rays, so hold your breath that the news is good.
Newly acquired Cardinal Mark DeRosa will miss three to four games with a strained tendon in his wrist. Hopefully that is all that he will miss and the trade of Chris Perez wasn't for nothing. Keep DeRosa on your bench throughout the weekend.
