Matt Holliday was traded today to the St. Louis Cardinals for prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. Holliday now goes back to the National League, back to a team with a chance to win, and he is now hitting right behind Albert Pujols. All of these factors lead me to believe that Holliday will have a great end of the season. Now, you can't expect his numbers back from his days with Colorado, but I definitely think he will be better than he was in Oakland. St. Louis isn't Coors Field, but it is better for hitters than Oakland is. If you have been holding Holliday all year long, today is a day for a small celebration. Holliday had his own celebration by having a four hit night against the Phillies.
Even though he faltered in the eighth inning, Joba Chamberlain pitched well and Phil Coke bailed him out. Joba lasted seven innings and threw just over 100 pitches, allowing just one run and striking out six. This is the second consecutive start that Chamberlain has gotten into the seventh inning, after three straight of not being able to complete six. I hate to be a buzzkill, but I have to report what I hear. On NY sports talk radio today all the chatter was about the return of the Joba Rules and how many innings the Yankees were going to let him throw. It seems the limit is somewhere near 150 innings. Well, with his seven tonight, that brings Joba to 102 for the season. You don't need a math degree to figure out that he won't be starting for the rest of the season. So, is does he go back to the bullpen? Do they just shut him down? It is very unlikely they stop him from pitching. I would think he has seven or eight starts left in him and then he's back to the pen. But if the Yankees are scratching for a playoff spot and he keeps pitching like this, perhaps they will let him continue to start, but from what I heard today that is highly unlikely. With Mariano as the closer and Hughes seemingly entrenched in the eighth inning, I'm not sure what kind of role Chamberlain would have in that Yankee pen.
Carlos Guillen played in a game for the first time for the Tigers since May 4th, and he did pretty good. Guillen was DHing for Detroit in both games of a doubleheader on Friday, and he collected three hits combined in the games, including a home run. He had an injury riddled 2008 season that saw his statistics go in the toilet, but the guy can still hit. Unfortunately, he likely won't get regular playing time right away, so if you do make a move to pick him up, don't be surprised if he gets some regular days off the first few weeks. I wouldn't expect too much from Guillen for the rest of this year, but maybe over the last four to five weeks of the season when he is feeling better he might have a hot streak in him.
Aramis Ramirez had four hits, including his second home run since the All-Star Break, maybe he will be OK. I have been very leery of Aramis since he came back from the Disabled List since I read quotes from him that he didn't expect to hit for much power for the rest of the year due to his shoulder injury. Today he goes out and hits two doubles and a homer. Given his career history I suppose you have to figure that he will be ok and play him every day. I only own him in one league, and of course he was on my bench today. He won't be tomorrow.
Congratulations to Padres' rookie Mat Latos for collecting his first career victory in the major leagues in just his second start. Latos allowed just two runs over 5.2 innings and struck out five. Latos is the Padres best pitching prospect who made the big jump from AA all the way to the majors. He is only 21 years old, so even though he has a ton of talent, my guess is that the rest of 2009 will be full of ups and downs for Latos. In keeper leagues and deeper seasonal leagues he is worth the risk, but if you are in a 12 team league I would think there are safer options out there. At worst he will help you with strikeouts, the rest of the categories are a crap shoot right now.
This may be a little late, but for those of you who don't pay attention to the box scores every night, it appears that J.P. Howell has taken over as the Rays closer. He collected his 11th save of the year tonight, and his fifth this month. The Rays are back to their winning ways, so if he is available and you need saves, I would certainly jump on that bandwagon for as long as it lasts. He allowed just three earned runs in June and July combined, and they all came in one outing. He also has 58 Ks in just 47 innings.
Manny Parra screwed everyone who started him today. After allowing just one run in his first two starts after coming back from the minors, Parra gave up four runs over five innings against the Braves who don't exactly have Murderer's Row for a batting order. While he should be better than he was to start the season, it appears that the inconsistency that has been the trademark of his career will continue.
Am I wrong on Martin Prado? While he seems to be one of the most added players in fantasy over the last month, I am still resisting that temptation. Prado had two hits on Friday, including a three run home run. He initially got fantasy attention because of his multi-position eligibility, but he has hit great in July. He has only gone hitless in two games the entire month of July so far, and he has 11 RBI this month. He never showed much power or much speed in his five years in the minors, so I'm not sure where this production is coming from. I can't say it is a bad idea to pick him up while he is hot, but just make sure you aren't giving up anyone that is too good, and don't be shocked if this nice run drops off.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.
Josh Hamilton finally hit his first home run and stole his first base since returning from the Disabled List, and he did them both in the same game. Hamilton was 3/4 and drove in three runs, calming some of his fantasy owners' fears that he would not return to the form we are accustomed to after his many injuries this year. It is just one game, but this is a step in the right direction. The guy was a monster last year, if he is healthy, and we have to believe he is, he should mash in the second half.
Chris Carpenter continues his magical season with another dominating performance against the Diamondbacks on Friday. Carpenter scattered seven hits over eight innings and struck out seven batters. He is now 8-3 with an ERA of only 2.26 and a WHIP of 0.88. He was a large injury risk coming into the season, but for those of you with some stones, he is paying off big time. I certainly hope I don't need to say that Carpenter is a must start every single game he is in.
Clay Buchholz pitched very well for himself, and now the question is whether he will be able to stay in the big leagues or whether he will be headed right back down to Pawtucket. Buchholz allowed only one run over 5.2 innings, walked three and struck out three. It wasn't dominant, but it was obviously more than the Sox needed. He certainly deserves to stay with the big club, but barring a trade of Brad Penny or an injury somewhere, I have to think that he is going back down. Man, I hope I'm wrong!
Aramis Ramirez hit his first homer since May 6th, and it was his first since coming back from injury. He is a perpetual 30 home run guy, and although he won't get there this year, he should have a good second half of the year. Look for Aramis to threaten to hit 20 homers, but I believe he will fall a little short.
Ricky Romero was able to strike out eight batters on Friday, but he couldn't even get through the fifth inning, and he also walked five guys. Romero allowed four runs, and his WHIP went up over 1.30. I have been skeptical of him all season long, and to this point he has proven me wrong. Is this the start of a bad streak? I don't wish that on anyone, but I would not be surprised if he had a bad stretch at the end of July.
Edwin Encarnacion homered for the second straight game, and is now 7/7 in the two games after the All-Star Break. If all goes well, Edwin could hit ten or twelve more homers before the end of the year, and he is worth at least a bench spot on your team, I just wouldn't put much stock in him. He is helped by the fact that there are about four good 3Bs this year.
Martin Prado continues to hit, and I continue not to buy in to it. Prado doubled and homered on Friday, raising his season average to .330. He has certainly gotten a stranglehold on the second base job for Atlanta and he has five multi-hit games in the last eight. This is the first chance in his career to get regular at bats and he is certainly making the most of it, but I really don't see this trend continuing. You might be able to sell high on him while he is hot.
Chad Billingsley had his worst outing of the season by far, as he didn't even get out of the second inning. Billingsley was pounded for six runs and didn't strikeout a batter. This is his second straight HORRIBLE start. However, there is no indication that anything is wrong with Billingsley physically, so you have to continue to pitch him every fifth day. He has to turn this around sometime soon, he is too good to pitch this poorly.
Alex Gordon was back in the lineup for the first time since April 15th, and he was able to contribute a single. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from him in the second half of this season. Chances are he will continue to disappoint, not only has he not played in three months, but I have also read that he is coming back at less than 100%. If you have a roster spot that is just rotting he is worth a flier, but other than that I would leave him be.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
Wandy Rodriguez continues to pitch quite impressively at home, as he threw a complete game shutout on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, striking out 11. Wandy is a guy that I have learned to have more faith in this season, especially at Minute Maid (which is surprising considering some of its dimensions). He is a guy that I have on a few of my teams, generally as my fifth starter. Even if your staff is good, he is worth picking up for a good, home matchup from time to time. When he's on, Rodriguez can deal.
Chris Volstad is impossible to figure out. Volstad had lost six of his last seven decisions, and then all of a sudden (when I benched him!) he goes out and throws a shutout. In his last outing, he only lasted three innings against the PIRATES! Why would I have started him, or anyone for that matter, against the Giants who have been hitting. I still really like Volstad, and he is one of the better young pitchers in Florida, but he is going to have his moments that will make you want to touch that drop button.
Jorge De La Rosa won his fourth straight start, allowing three runs over 6.1 innings and struck out five. He has been an incredibly streaky guy. He started the season by losing his first six decisions. Since then he has gone 6-1. Which guy is the real one? Your guess is as good as mine. If nothing else he will get you a pretty good number of strikeouts, so even when he is bad he will help you in one category. However, even with this win his ERA sits at 5.03 and his WHIP is 1.43, mostly because of too many walks.
Chad Gaudin is another pitcher that you can look at if you really need strikeouts. He is on a roll lately, but this one won't last. Tonight Gaudin allowed just one run over 6.2 innings and struck out seven. That now makes it four of his last five starts that he allowed three runs or less. He mostly pitched out of the bullpen (ineffectively) last season, and wasn't a good starter for the A's back in 2007. Put that together with the fact that he pitches for the Padres and that makes him a guy that you can't put too much stock in. You can expect strikeouts, but not much else.
David Hernandez is one of the good young arms that the Orioles have coming through their farm system. He might be the worst of the group, but that doesn't mean he won't be good. Hernandez had a good minor league career, with a record of 15-6 record, and ERA under 3.00 and 245 Ks in 198 innings. So far in his last three starts in the majors, Hernandez has looked pretty good. The strikeouts haven't been there, but he allowed just two runs over six innings against the Mariners. He has also been walking too many guys, but his control should improve as he gets more comfortable and could be a guy who has a solid second half.
Homer Bailey was good again, even though he wasn't in line for a win. Bailey allowed just two runs over six innings and struck out six. The best part of the start was that Bailey didn't walk anyone. His control has been by far the biggest problem, and if he can continue to pitch like this, perhaps he will finally start to live up to all of the hype that was given to him when he was in the minors.
Scott Kazmir had his first bad start since coming back from the Disabled List, and BOY was it bad. Kazmir allowed seven runs over 6.1 innings, but kept his control walking only two and striking out four. Feel free to start Kazmir like you would have before his injury. He was good most of the time, but was prone to this kind of outing once in a while.
I know I promised I would never talk about him again, but I feel it is worth mentioning that Oliver Perez was back for the Mets, and was his usual self. It was like Oliver never left. He only allowed two runs over five innings against a great Dodgers' team and actually collected the win. However, like I said, the same old Oliver showed up. Perez walked seven guys over his five innings and threw 108 pitches in that span. He is worth a look if you are desperate, but don't put too much stock in this one outing, he has always pitched good against good teams.
Martin Prado continues to hit for the Braves, accumulating another two knocks and drove in his 16th run of the year. He had 17 hits over the last eight games, and has been on fire since being named the starter at second. I would consider using him as a short-term replacement for a middle infield spot, but I still don't have faith that he will keep this up for the rest of the year. He never showed much power or speed in the minors, so I think this is just a hot streak, and in a month we won't be talking about Prado anymore.
Andruw Jones had three homers on Wednesday, giving him 14 on the season. I don't think that this is a guy that you want to focus on. He does have seven homers in his past ten games, but even with that production, Jones is still not playing every day. This is a good story that he was able to find his talent again in Texas, but I still don't believe Jones to be fantasy worthy unless you are in an AL-only league.
Ervin Santana was bad again, and now the question comes "what should you do with him?" I would say this; While I don't have him in any league, I have to admit that it would be difficult for me to keep him on my roster considering the way he has been pitching. However, what are your options in free agency? If there is a solid pitcher out there that probably shouldn't have been dropped, then go ahead and drop him. If you are thinking of picking up Oliver Perez or Chad Gaudin or someone like that, I would hold on to Santana. The leash he would be on couldn't get any shorter though.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
John Smoltz had his second start of the season interrupted by rain, but it was much better than his first. Smoltz only pitched four innings, but allowed just three hits, one run, and struck out two. I am still on the fence on what to expect from him this season, but this was definitely a step in the right direction. At this point in his career he is more of a fifth starter in your rotation or even an end of the roster kind of guy. As of right now, I would continue to start him, but keep expectations under control.
What can we expect from Johan Santana while the entire Mets' offense is on the DL? He must have so much pressure on himself to perform, that perhaps he will go into a funk as well. He has now lost three of his last four starts, and was less than stellar on Tuesday. Santana allowed four earned runs over six innings, walked four and struck out four. The walks are so not like Santana that you have to figure that the trend won't continue. If you have worries about Santana, take a look at his career second half numbers, that should make you feel better.
Joe Saunders has had a pattern of one good start, one bad start. Unfortunately for his owners, this was his turn to be a bad start. Saunders allowed eight runs over just 3.2 innings, walked five and struck out only two. He still is on pace to win 15 games, but given his second half last year, I'm not sure if he will reach that number. If you can get a good return for him in a trade, I would certainly consider moving Saunders. I still think he is good enough that I wouldn't just flat out drop him.
Bronson Arroyo got off to a pretty good start, but has been struggling badly of late. He gave up five earned runs on Tuesday, and has now allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts. Arroyo is not a guy that I would hold on my roster unless your league has 16 teams or more. If Arroyo gets a matchup against a weak hitting NL teams I would give him a start, but other than that I would leave him in free agency.
Martin Prado had a great 4/5 game including the winning hit, but don't fall into the trap of picking up the hot hand. Prado has never really been a full-time player, and while he might be earning some playing time with his recent success, there is no way that it will continue. He is a fine part time player, but if he were to play everyday I guarantee his numbers will suffer. Leave him in free agency, that is where he belongs.
Ross Ohlendorff has now given up three runs or less in four of his last five starts after his Tuesday outing. He shut the Cubs out for seven innings and struck out eight batters. Ohlendorff is not anywhere near that kind of strikeout pitcher, as he only had 44 in his previous 89 innings. It was impressive that he was so good against the Cubbies, but this isn't a guy that I would pick up unless I was in an NL only league.
Gordon Beckham had his second consecutive three hit game, and his second consecutive two RBI game. The kid has a ton of potential that I have talked about in these articles before, and now he is starting to put it together some. I still don't believe that he is ready to be a consistent fantasy force, but all those Ofers that he took when he came up are likely behind him. He is worth having on your team (and in keeper leagues is a must have), but I just don't know that he will help you on a daily basis.
Mailing List
I'm not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don't get a request to join it. For those of you who haven't seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
