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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight. 7/29


Joba Chamberlain had perhaps the best outing of his young career, as he shutout the Rays over eight innings and struck out five. This is now the third straight time to the mound that Joba has pitched into the seventh inning as he looks to turn the corner to a reliable starter. As happy as his fantasy owners have to be about this outing, there is still talk here in New York that he is supposed to be on an inning limit of 150. Will he be shut down? Will he go to the 'pen? Will the Yankees take the kid gloves off and just let the guy pitch? Only time will tell, but if I had to guess right now I would think he is a few weeks away from going back to the bullpen, crushing his value.The Cleveland Indians traded their ace Cliff Lee to the Philadelphia Phillies for four prospects. What should you expect from Lee in the National League? Well, for one that sub-.500 record should be a thing of the past. Lee was not getting nearly the run support that he deserved, and it showed in his 7-9 record. But Lee's ERA is just 3.14 and he has 107 strikeouts on the year. He won't have a C.C. Sabathia-type impact in the National League, but he should get more wins and the rest of his numbers should also improve in the lighter hitting National League.

The Indians got prospects pitcher Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson, young pitcher Jason Knapp, and shortstop Jason Donald. For fantasy purposes in 2009 the only guy you likely have to worry about is Carrasco. He was once a pretty high ranking prospect for the Phillies, but he has struggled over the past couple seasons. His ERA at AAA was over 5.00 this season, so while he might get a look in the rotation, he is not someone I would go get. Donald could play shortstop for them someday, but not likely this season. Knapp is still in single-A, but is a hard throwing guy. IF the Indians do trade Victor Martinez in the next couple of days Marson could see some time in the big leagues, but Kelly Shoppach would see most of the starts there. So, for the Indians side this trade doesn't have much fantasy impact in 2009.

The Pirates made a couple of deals, first trading Jack Wilson and Ian Snell for a bunch of prospects including Jeff Clement from Seattle. Clement was once a top ten pick in the draft, and if Pittsburgh decides to call him up he could have some fantasy impact. He bascially has nothing more to prove in the minor leagues, but his talent has yet to translate to the majors. If the Pirates decide to take a long look at Clement, he is likely to be catcher eligible, and should be worth a look if you have any need for a backstop. He likely will struggle again, but is worth taking a flier on.

The better move for the future of the Pirates was when they acquired young pitching prospect Tim Alderson from the San Francisco Giants for Freddy Sanchez. Now, I understand that Sanchez is a better actual baseball player than in fantasy, but Alderson was one of the top 50 prospects in the whole game according to Baseball America even though he was just in AA. There is very little chance that Alderson will see the majors this season, but he is 6-1 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts. Keep him on your radar for young pitchers to watch in 2010.

Aramis Ramirez is hitting like crazy, despite reports that HE said he didn't think he would hit for much power for the rest of the season because of his shoulder injury. Well, I guess Aramis even shortchanged himself. He homered for the fourth time in his last six games on Wednesday and now has nine dingers in 36 games. I guess despite his own questions about his abilities, that Ramirez will be his usual power hitting self. If he has nine homers right now, look for him to challenge 20 for the season despite missing a huge chunk of the year.

Howie Kendrick had three hits including his sixth home run and drove in five runs. Even with this outburst, he is still hitting in the .260s and he just isn't bringing much to the table as far as fantasy is concerned in 2009. Is this the start of something good for Kendrick? Anything is possible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Howie was pegged as a batting champion waiting to happen, but so far he hasn't shown much. He likely will never hit for much power or steal many bases, so I foresee Kendrick being a guy who is more valuable in actual baseball rather than in fantasy.

Chris Tillman made his first career major league start for the Orioles, and while it wasn't anything to get excited about at all, you have to keep your expectations under control. Tillman has a ton of talent and very well could go out and throw gems in his next few starts. You can see it now, next time out Tillman will likely last six innings and give up three runs again and strikeout five. It may take a little while, but this kid should be special.

Mat Latos improves a little bit each time out, and on Wednesday he took a pretty good step forward. Latos allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out four against a pretty decent hitting Reds team. He continues his command of the strikeout, as he has only walked four batters in his three starts. I know he has two wins in his first three starts, but being on the Padres will limit his win possibilites. At just 21 years old, it appears this is the start of a long, fabulous career, but with all young pitchers there will likely be a fair share of bumps in the road. So far, Latos looks like he might be the real deal, but I always get worried with pitchers who make the jump from AA to the majors.

Brett Anderson had a tough first inning, but then dug in and gave up nothing further to the Red Sox and earned his sixth win of the season. Anderson also struck out eight in his six innings of work, and continues to look like the guy we thought we would see when the season started. He has only given up more than three runs once since the middle of June and should be a good contributor for the rest of the year. If you are in a keeper league and he is out there, don't hesitate to pick him up. Seasonal leagues, I think he certainly warrants consideration, and if you don't grab him after this outing if he pitches well again five days from now then he would have to be picked up.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

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