Scott Kazmir returned to the Rays' rotation, and I have to say he pitched much better than I anticipated. Kazmir was struggling badly before he was placed on the DL, but his pitching line was pretty sharp on Saturday. Kazmir was his usual self, only lasting five innings, but allowed just two runs, walked only one and struck out five. While I expect Kazmir to be better than he was to open the year, I figured he would struggle in his first couple times to the mound. Regardless of whether he was good or not today, Kazmir is the kind of pitcher that you start every time out, regardless of the matchup. To make room for Kazmir the Rays sent Andy Sonnanstine to the minors, which is great news for David Price owners. It certainly seems like he was another candidate to be sent down.
A.J. Burnett has had a very up and down season for the Yankees, but today was what they expected when they handed out that contract. Granted the Mets have a ton of injuries, but Burnett was masterful none the less. He threw seven shutout innings, allowed just one hit and struck out ten. I don't believe that this is Burnett turning the corner, I still think that he will be very inconsistent and will have his share of difficult outings. On a positive note, he has been perfectly healthy so far in 2009.
For those of you who listen to the Tuesday podcast of Fantasy Baseball Tonight, you know I have been waiting for the start by Homer Bailey. I said he would stink, Jeff said pick him up. Now, he only allowed three runs in five innings, but Bailey walked seven. I stand by my position. DO NOT pick this guy up. Not every high ranking prospect always pans out, and I stand firm by my belief that Bailey will not be a successful Major Leaguer.
John Lackey finally pitched like the John Lackey that we know, and he is a guy that I think will round into shape and will begin to pitch better more often than not in the future. Lackey didn't allow an earned run over seven innings and struck out nine. Lackey has had some injury troubles in the past couple seasons, but when he is in there, Lackey is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. If you can get him kinda cheap I would think about making a move to trade for him, but if you have him, feel good that you should be getting more production from him in the future.
J.A. Happ had the performance of day though, making his fantasy owners Happ-y as he threw a complete game shutout against the Blue Jays. Happ allowed just five hits, didn't walk anyone and struck out four to raise his record to 5-0. He had a couple of rocky outings recently, so it was good to see him get back on track. To me Happ is the kind of guy that you can expect to give up three runs over six innings and strikeout four. That should be the average outing for him. Some will be better, some far worse, but overall he should be a useful pitcher to have.
Scott Podsednik continues to play for the White Sox, and he continues to produce. His four hit game on Saturday was his third straight contest with two hits or more, and all he needed was a triple for the cycle. I still don't have supreme confidence that he will be a reliable player all year long, but right now he is hot, and if you need batting average and stolen bases, Podsednik could be just the shot in the arm your team needs.
Nolan Reimold is perhaps my favorite rookie of the first half of the season. He hit his ninth homer of the year today, and continues to hover around the .300 mark. Reimold has been starting on every team that I own him on, and unless your outfield is unusually stacked, he should be starting for you as well.
I guess Pablo Sandoval wasn't happy about me saying that I didn't expect a ton of power out of him yesterday, because he went out on Saturday and hit two more homers. Sandoval is now up to 11 on the season to go with his .340 average. I was happy that I picked him for my guy in the 56 Game Hit Streak game on USA Today.com. He got my streak going again after it was broken by Curtis Granderson. Please join our group to see if you can do any better. Just follow the link above, and the private group is called Fantasy BBall 2nite and the password is fantasy.
Kyle Blanks drove in the first three runs of his major league career with a two double game against the Rangers. Blanks is one of the better power hitting prospects in the majors, but he has struggled to start his time with the Padres. Keeper league players will want to stash him on your bench, while seasonal players probably don't need to own him at this point.
Kazuo Matsui has hit in every game but two since returning from the Disabled List last week, and hit his first home run since the third game of the year. Matsui isn't the best option in the world, but if you have a need at second base or middle infield he could offer you a little help. He is traditionally a .280 hitter and has stolen 20+ bases in each of the last two seasons. He has a tough time staying healthy, but tends to be fairly productive when he plays.
Chris Davis hit his second homer in three days, and third in the last eight. He has also gotten his average above the Mendoza line, up to .212. Is this the start of the hot streak we all have been waiting for over the last three months? I am not ready to say that yet, heck I'm not even ready to take him off my bench yet. But he has my attention because of the power that he is capable of.
Chris Davis (L/R) -- Rangers -- I guess you could call Davis' '08 season a breakout as he hit 17 HR's in just 295 AB's. Davis is a true power hitter in every sense. A left handed bat like his playing in the notoriously short right field porch in Texas is nothing short of the perfect storm. He is an absolute top of the line power hitting and run producing 1B who will also not drag your team down in BA or OBP categories. He is assured of being the Rangers starting 1B and will hit in the middle of the order with great protection in Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young around him. I expect Davis to have a very big season and finish among the top 5 in fantasy production among AL first basemen.
Gaby Sanchez (R/R) -- Marlins -- Mike Jacobs hit 32 HR's and drove in 93 runs for the Marlins last season yet was traded to the Royals for middle reliever Leo Nunez. The Marlins were blasted for not acquiring more for such a prolific power hitter but this is a clear indication the team sees Gaby Sanchez as ready to take over. Sanchez may not have the power that Jacobs provided but he has good extra base power to all fields and should collect between 16-24 HR's himself. Sanchez will get on base far more than Jacobs and hit for a higher BA thus will score more runs and drive in close to amount of Jacobs. Sanchez is a more complete player, the kind you love to have on your fantasy team.
Nick Johnson (L/L) -- Nationals -- I am aware that Johnson's days of being a "prospect" are long over as he now enters his 30's. But I have always liked the way he plays the game and feel that he could be a huge find late in most fantasy league drafts this year. After missing the '07 season with a broken femur (ouch!) Johnson returned to lead the Nationals in OBP and RBI before tearing a ligament in his wrist just 38 games into the season. Reports are that Johnson is taking batting practice and will be a full go for spring training. When healthy, Nick Johnson is one of the most prolific on-base players in the league. He also has plus power and above average speed rare for a 1B. Keep an eye on Johnson's progress this spring. If he remains healthy you could easily avoid wasting early picks on the top 1B and use late round picks to grab a great comeback player like Nick Johnson.
John Bowker (L/L) -- Giants -- Travis Ishikawa is likely to be the Giants staring 1B on opening day, but I see Bowker coming on strong this season. Bowker was a third round pick of the Giants back in 2004 and proceeded to hit for a high average in four minor league seasons. Before the '07 season Bowker put on 15 pounds of muscle which allowed him to put up a career high 22 HR's at AA Connecticut. In spring training last year the Giants staff had Bowker move closer to the plate which resulted in much better pitch selection and a drastic power increase especially to right field. Bowker is a "team" type guy who is always willing to listen and put in extra time to make himself better. His ability to play the corner OF positions as well as 1B will earn him a spot in the Giants opening day roster. If he continues to progress the way he has been Bowker will be the Giants starting 1B and a run producer in the lower middle of their lineup.
Bryan LaHair (L/R) -- Mariners -- LaHair is a bit of a mysetery but a good story nonetheless. He has been in the Mariners system for 6 seasons the last 3 at AAA Tacoma. He worked with Seattle strength coach James Clifford to develop a stronger base which seems to have paid off. At 6'5" 220 lbs. LaHair is quite an intimidating presence in the batters box. The 1B job appears to be his to lose though he will see plenty of time as DH as well. LaHair has dropped his strikeout totals each of the past 3 seasons, a very good sign for a young power hitter. Though his BA may rarely rise above the .270 mark, he will be a major run producer for the Mariners in 2009.
Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com
Chris Davis is a very intriguing player this year. He came onto the stage last year and in 80 games belted 17 home runs in 295 at bats with a .285 average. We watched for several games last year scouting him primarily for this season. There is no doubt he will start at first base for the Rangers and could see time at third base as well. He has tremendous power to all fields and has a quick compact stroke that drives the ball. A big advantage is he hits in Arlington, so the balls will flyout when he is home. His big problem is strikeouts. He struck out 28% of the time and only had 20 walks. The Rangers hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo will have work with his young hitter and ask him to be much more patient at the plate. He was one of the worse hitters last year with 3 balls and that makes no sense. n his Sophomore season we expect him to grow as a player and still surprise some pitchers who haven't seen him. We expect him to strikeout quite a bit, but not as much as last season. Also, we do expect some slumps and at least one prolonged slump,but overall we expect a fantastic season for this power hitting left-handed hitter.
The True Guru Projections: 30 Hrs, 105 RBI, 85 Runs, .283 Avg, 3 SB
We feel he will achieve these projections through our formula based on our secret formula of 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season.
He didn't arrive with much fanfare, but Mike Aviles has been one of the better rookie hitters so far in 2008. The Royals 2007 Minor League Player of the Year hit 17 HRs and drove in 77 runs in 2007. He was on pace to crush that season in 2008 before the Royals summoned him to play with the big boys (.336/10/42 in 51 games in '08). Aviles got off to a great start, but had many fantasy owners not believing that he was for real. Like all young hitters he will slump from time to time (no hits in last nine at-bats currently), but his track record says that he will continue to hit. And with no competition to take his job with the Royals, he should be a great pickup at a weak position.
Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
.254, 4 HRs, 6 RBI (15 games)
Headley is one of the better hitting prospects in baseball, and would have had a starting job out of Spring if he was ready to play left field. But he went down the minors, crushed the baseball, and learned the outfield. Now that he is back with the Pads, he is looking to keep on doing what he has been.....hitting baseballs out of the park. Since his call up on June 17th, Headley has only gone hitless twice, and has an eight game hitting streak going right now. He has shown pretty good power at the major league level and just needs to cut down on the strikeouts. I don't see him returning to the minors again anytime soon, so if you need some help, Headley could be a good option for you.
Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers
.150, 1 HR, 3 RBI (6 games)
Has Jarrod Saltalamacchia fallen out of favor in Texas already? Everyone thought he would be the starting catcher out of Spring, but the job was given to Gerald Laird. Then Laird gets hurt, and up from AA comes Max Ramirez. Ramirez was making the minors look like Junior Varsity as he was hitting .363 with 17 homers and 50 ribbies in just 67 games. However, it is looking like the jump from Double-A to the majors might have been too big for Max, as he is struggling mightily at the plate. Don't be surprised to see him return to the farm if he struggles more in the next few days. Keep his name in the back of your mind for next season, however, perhaps then he might be ready for prime time.
Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
.100, 1 RBI, 2 SBs (3 games)
The Yankees needed to inject some speed into their lineups and did so with the promotion of Gardner. He is certainly never going to wow you with his power, as he never even hit 10 homers in a season in the minors, but that's not why you would own him. Gardner has blazing speed and has the potential to steal 50 bases in the majors if he were ever to get regular playing time. That's a problem on the Yankees, as with Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui, at-bats in the outfield are tough to come by. But with Matsui hurt, and Damon crashing into the wall on Friday, perhaps Gardner will get some playing time, and if you need steals, this is a good place to go to get them.
Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
.316, 3 HRs, 7 RBI (7 games)
The Rangers best hitting prospect came to the majors to inject some more power into that lineup, and so far he has delivered. Davis was putting up big numbers in the minors before his call up (.333/14/42 in just 46 games) and has continued hitting in Texas. Rumors are that he might return to the minors when Hank Blalock returns from the DL, but I have two thoughts on that. One, if he keeps hitting like this, how do you send him down? Two, Hank Blalock come off the DL? Who really thinks that is going to happen anytime soon? Or even if he does it is just a matter of time before he is hurt again. I like Davis, big time.
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
.428, 1 HR, 1 RBI (4 games)
One of the top hitting prospects in ALL of baseball, Butler has been a guy that we have been waiting for to hit .315 or better and bash out 25+ home runs. However, in his short major league career he has yet to show that power potential that he flashed in the minors. In 2007 at AAA, Butler connected on 13 homers in just 57 games, which translates to nearly 40 over an entire season. However, in his 149 games at the major league level he has just ten. Butler has a world of talent and in deeper (16+ teams) or keeper leagues, you should probably make a move on Butler now, depending on your roster.
Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
.333, 3 HRs, 10 RBI (8 games)
This is far from Lind's first stint in the major leagues, but so far it has certainly been his most productive. I have been one of Lind's biggest critics as I haven't seen anything in his game to match all the hype that surrounded his ascension to the majors. He had shown SOME power in his other trips to Toronto, but his batting average was so bad, that you couldn't afford to keep him on your roster. In his previous call-up earlier this year, Lind was only able to collect one hit in six games, while striking out three times. Something might have finally clicked for him though, as he has been a nice shot in the arm for the Blue Jays offense. He has driven in six of those runs in the past three games, and although his average is still not impressive, he might be worth a spot on your team.
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By this time of the year everyone is watching free agency trying to plug that injury hole, or that guy we thought was going to be a star that didn’t pan out.These are a few guys that could help your roster and keep you on track toward the title.
Hitters
Mike Aviles, KC.The Royals Minor League Player of the Year in 2007, Aviles has been just what the doctor ordered in Kansas City since his call up.In 18 games, Aviles is hitting .336 with three homers and 13 RBI.At AAA last season, Aviles hit .296 with 17 homers and 77 ribbies, which means this production isn’t necessarily a fluke.Given his age and the fact he plays a middle infield position, I see no reason not to take a flier on the young shortstop, he has the everyday job for now.
Elijah Dukes, WAS.In his last six games, Dukes has nine hits, two homers and three ribeyes.He is currently hitting .264, and although he looks like someone worth owning, you have to be aware of his off the field problems.Dukes is always just a day away from a possible suspension or act that could cause him to be looked upon unfavorably in the organization.Take into account the time just a couple of weeks ago where he refused to slap his manager five, after Manny Acta took exception to Dukes and Milledge dancing.It doesn’t appear to have cost him this time, but the potential is always there.
Adam Lind, TOR.When Blue Jays Shawn Marcum got hurt, it came with the recall of one of their better hitting prospects, Adam Lind. Lind has been up with the big club before, but it has seemed on each one of his tours of duty that he was completely overmatched and might not be able to hit major league pitching. So far in his first time with the big club he has been hitting this time (although it is only three games). Lind connected on his second homer in three games, and he has the talent to be a great hitter, perhaps he will start to put it together.
Jorge Cantu, FLA.It might be too late for Cantu already, but he is certainly setting the fantasy world on watch in recent weeks.Bring back memories from 2005 when Cantu was a big hitting 2B, he is hitting .280 with 14 homers and 43 driven in.Even though he is now at third and not the shallow second base position, Cantu is proving to be someone who belongs on someone’s roster, if not their starting lineups.
Just coming to the majors:Chris Davis, 3B, TEX
Pitchers
Mike Pelfrey, NYM.Is this time that he starts living up to all the potential we have been hearing about?Take it easy, it is too soon to make that statement yet.Pelfrey has been pitching better as of late, in four of his last five starts he allowed two runs or less.If I had a spot at the end of my rotation, or an injury to someone like Carlos Zambrano, I would carry Pelfrey on my roster until I got healthy.Just temper your expectations and don’t expect an ace and you won’t be disappointed by Pelfrey.
Charlie Morton, ATL.The latest rookie to try to keep the Braves’ ship afloat, Morton was called up after he was posting some pretty impressive numbers at AAA.In three starts he has yet to allow more than three runs and his record is 1-1.He pitched pretty well his last time out despite battling the flu, and in the short term Morton isn’t a bad option.He was 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA (72 Ks in 79 IP also) at AAA Richmond, but those were by far his best numbers as a minor leaguer.I am not on the Morton bandwagon as of now, but as a band-aid, he looks to be a decent option.
Darryl Thompson, CIN.He is about to make his second start of the season, and if it is like the first, you might think about picking him up.Even though he walked four batters, Thompson threw five shutout innings in Yankee Stadium in his major league debut, and immediately got the attention of some fantasy owners.He had pretty good minor league numbers, as he was 3-2 with a 1.76 ERA and nearly a strikeout an inning.It is tough to make the transition from AA to the majors, but it has been done before and the Reds seem to have the knack with young pitching all of a sudden.
Luke Hochevar, KC.Hochevar has had a very up and down rookie season, and it is looking more like he is going to be a pretty good pitcher.In three of his last four starts he has allowed only two runs, but he is still walking too many batters and striking out too few.Hochevar was a former number one overall pick, so he has a world of potential, the Royals and fantasy players are just waiting for him to become a little more consistent.
Just Coming to the Majors:John Parrish, SP, TOR
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