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Friday, July 17, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/17


Josh Hamilton finally hit his first home run and stole his first base since returning from the Disabled List, and he did them both in the same game. Hamilton was 3/4 and drove in three runs, calming some of his fantasy owners' fears that he would not return to the form we are accustomed to after his many injuries this year. It is just one game, but this is a step in the right direction. The guy was a monster last year, if he is healthy, and we have to believe he is, he should mash in the second half.

Chris Carpenter continues his magical season with another dominating performance against the Diamondbacks on Friday. Carpenter scattered seven hits over eight innings and struck out seven batters. He is now 8-3 with an ERA of only 2.26 and a WHIP of 0.88. He was a large injury risk coming into the season, but for those of you with some stones, he is paying off big time. I certainly hope I don't need to say that Carpenter is a must start every single game he is in.

Clay Buchholz pitched very well for himself, and now the question is whether he will be able to stay in the big leagues or whether he will be headed right back down to Pawtucket. Buchholz allowed only one run over 5.2 innings, walked three and struck out three. It wasn't dominant, but it was obviously more than the Sox needed. He certainly deserves to stay with the big club, but barring a trade of Brad Penny or an injury somewhere, I have to think that he is going back down. Man, I hope I'm wrong!

Aramis Ramirez hit his first homer since May 6th, and it was his first since coming back from injury. He is a perpetual 30 home run guy, and although he won't get there this year, he should have a good second half of the year. Look for Aramis to threaten to hit 20 homers, but I believe he will fall a little short.

Ricky Romero was able to strike out eight batters on Friday, but he couldn't even get through the fifth inning, and he also walked five guys. Romero allowed four runs, and his WHIP went up over 1.30. I have been skeptical of him all season long, and to this point he has proven me wrong. Is this the start of a bad streak? I don't wish that on anyone, but I would not be surprised if he had a bad stretch at the end of July.

Edwin Encarnacion homered for the second straight game, and is now 7/7 in the two games after the All-Star Break. If all goes well, Edwin could hit ten or twelve more homers before the end of the year, and he is worth at least a bench spot on your team, I just wouldn't put much stock in him. He is helped by the fact that there are about four good 3Bs this year.

Martin Prado continues to hit, and I continue not to buy in to it. Prado doubled and homered on Friday, raising his season average to .330. He has certainly gotten a stranglehold on the second base job for Atlanta and he has five multi-hit games in the last eight. This is the first chance in his career to get regular at bats and he is certainly making the most of it, but I really don't see this trend continuing. You might be able to sell high on him while he is hot.

Chad Billingsley had his worst outing of the season by far, as he didn't even get out of the second inning. Billingsley was pounded for six runs and didn't strikeout a batter. This is his second straight HORRIBLE start. However, there is no indication that anything is wrong with Billingsley physically, so you have to continue to pitch him every fifth day. He has to turn this around sometime soon, he is too good to pitch this poorly.

Alex Gordon was back in the lineup for the first time since April 15th, and he was able to contribute a single. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from him in the second half of this season. Chances are he will continue to disappoint, not only has he not played in three months, but I have also read that he is coming back at less than 100%. If you have a roster spot that is just rotting he is worth a flier, but other than that I would leave him be.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.

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Sunday, July 5, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/5; Resurgence!?


Ricky Nolasco continued his dominance since returning from the minor leagues and had one of the best starts of his major league career. Nolasco pitched eight shutout innings of three hit ball, walked just two and struck out 12. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his starts since his recall, and has dropped his ERA nearly four full points. obviously he will have a few rough starts along the way, but I believe that you will see the pitcher from 2008 the vast majority of the time he takes the mound here on out.

OK, so his batting average might still be in the dumps, but David Ortiz is finally starting to show some signs of the power that turned him from an average hitter into BIG PAPI. Ortiz connected on his ninth of the season, and that was his third in the last ten days. At one point of the year everyone was wondering if he would hit 10 or 15 homers. Now it appears that 20 is well within his range. Still a bitter disappointment from our preseason expectations, but if he could get to a .250 average with 22 homers and perhaps 80 RBI maybe his owners would cancel their orders for the Ortiz voodoo dolls.

Jimmy Rollins is becomoing a regular on this column, as he continues to hit like it was 2007. Now, I am not saying this will last, but in the one league that I benched him in long ago, he finally got back in my starting lineup today. That's seven homers and 11 steals now. Like Ortiz, certainly not what we were hoping for, but much better than it looked like six weeks ago.

Gio Gonzalez has always had great strikeout potential, but he has always struggled in his chances at the major league level. Gonzalez was red hot in the minors this year and deserves this latest opportunity to stick with the big club. In 2007 he led the minor leagues in strikeouts with 185. On the flip side his major league ERA is 7.54. But perhaps today was the start of him turning the corner. Gonzalez pitched six innings, allowed just two runs and struck out eight. Sure it was against the Indians, but keep an eye on him. I wouldn't pick him up off this one good start, but keep an eye on him.

Josh Hamilton played both games of a doubleheader going 2/7 with a double, triple, and stolen base. There is still not a definite plan as of now when he will return to the Texas lineup, but he seems primed to join them within the next day or two. To show my confidence that he is on the brink of return, I am going to start him in the upcoming week in a league where my roster is set for the entire week.

Chad Qualls all of a sudden looks like he will be holding on to his job. After going nearly three weeks without a save (with a blown save and a loss in there), all of a sudden Qualls has recorded a save for the second consecutive day. Best of all is he didn't allow a base runner in either of these opportunities. What once looked like a lost cause has gained some life again. Qualls looks like he will be fine.......for now.

Scott Olsen had his second consecutive quality start since returning from the Disabled List, but I am still quite a ways a way from suggesting picking him up. He was just one out away from a complete game on Sunday, allowing three runs while walking five and striking out five. His ability to keep composure in pressure situations and his control have long been his biggest problems. Olsen was once a highly thought of pitching prospect for the Marlins, but inconsistency have him pretty much out of the minds of fantasy players. He has good strikeout numbers this year (41 in 56 IP), but they aren't good enough to make up for his horrible ERA and WHIP. Not to mention on the Nationals wins are hard to come by. Leave Olsen in free agency unless he is still on this kind of roll at the end of the month.

Justin Smoak was promoted to AAA, further fueling fantasy players hopes that he might be promoted later this year to replace strikeout machine Chris Young. Smoak did well at AA, but not dominating. In 49 games he hit .333 with six home runs and 29 RBI. Before the season started he was ranked as the 23rd best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. He should have some real power potential, and has been compared to Mark Teixeira. I still think he is a ways away from being promoted, but this is a positive sign.

This is how Bronson Arroyo messes with fantasy players. Between May 22nd and June 7th Arroyo allowed just one earned run in three of his four starts. Everyone was adding him to their team. Since then? Including today, Arroyo has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his last five starts and has lost three straight decisions. I often tell someone that a player "is who he is", any of you who have emailed me have probably heard that before. Well, same goes for Arroyo. He is an average pitcher who is capable of hitting some nice hot streaks. Problem is they are usually short lived, and followed by cold streaks of equal lengths. The proper way to use him is to pick him up against some of the weaker hitting National League teams, hope he does well, and then cast him aside until he gets another favorable matchup.

Tommy Hanson and Andrew McCutchen are getting all the press for the NL Rookie of the Year right now, but don't sleep on the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus. After a tough month of May where he hit for power but a .211 average, Rasmus hit .333 in June and is 8/17 so far in July. He has struggled against lefties, hitting just .173 against them, but he has shown some improvement in each month. The Cardinals think enough of him that he has been batting second in the lineup for quite a while now and he hit his tenth home run of the season today. I thought he would bring a little more speed to the table, but with the power he is showing and a .282 average he is worthy of being a fourth outfielder on any team.

Rick Porcello had his third straight less than stellar start, and his owners are likely starting to panic. Porcello allowed four earned in just four innings. His record is now 8-6, and his ERA has creeped over four. 20 year old pitchers are always going to go through rough spots, and I am still confident that is what is going on with Porcello right now. He will get back on track, although I would like to see him strikeout more hitters. He was the number one prospect for the Tigers coming into the season, and he will be back. You might not want to start him the next time out, but if he has a weak opponent I would keep him in.

Nick Blackburn continues to fly under the fantasy radar for the Twins, and the only explanation that I can come up with is because he doesn't get a ton of strikeouts. Blackburn went the distance on Sunday, allowed just one run and struck out six. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since May 16th, and with today's outing his ERA is now under 3.00. His record is now 7-4 and his WHIP is an average 1.27 so he really isn't hurting you in those categories either. It is his 51 strikeouts in 116 innings that causes him to be left on fantasy waiver wires. If you have a flamethrowing staff to begin with, Blackburn is a nice guy to have at the end to counteract one of those days when your usuals don't come through.

Jake Fox crushed his fourth homer of the season and has been hitting and playing defense well enough to stay in the lineup for the Cubs, but the question remains where will he fit in when Aramis Ramirez comes back? Ramirez should be back at some point this week, and Fox has mostly been holding down his position at third base. With Milton Bradley, Fukudome, and Soriano in the outfield, where does Fox get his playing time? I still think he should be in the Cubs outfield but only time will tell if he will be in the lineup when they are fully healthy. Of course with guys like Ramirez, Bradley, and Soriano another injury could pop up at any second. Until you see the full lineup and Fox still getting at bats, you have to remain worried about how much time he will get.

Randy Johnson left his start with some sort of shoulder strain. He was fooled badly on a pitch by Roy Oswalt, and grabbed his shoulder on the way back to the dugout. The next inning he allowed a couple of home runs and then made a throwing error. The Giants training staff made its way to the mound, and Johnson's day was over. He is pitching well better than expectations, so hopefully this is nothing that will cause him to miss a start. When you a pitcher over 40, they tend to be more cautious with you.

OK, back to the ESPN Arcade. Now today I have been sucked in by Extreme Trucks and Extreme Blast Billiards. The billiards game even slaps you in the face and calls you a wuss if you try to choose the "easy" difficulty setting. After playing it a couple dozen times, I wish there was an easy setting. I'm telling you, try the Concentration: Staches and you will be hooked. Haven't you ever wanted to play a memory game that has cards with Dave Winfield from the 70's and Johnny Damon in the midst of his Jesus look? There's games for everyone, I urge you to go there and see how fast it takes you to find a game that has you addicted.

Last thing of the night, there will be another Fantasy Roundtable with Steve Gardner and myself at the usatoday.com. I have talked about his Fantasy Windup blog for a couple months now and hopefully you all have checked it out. The latest Fantasy Roundtable will be this Tuesday at 12pm EST just like last week and likely last between 60 to 90 minutes. For those of you unfamiliar, this is different from a regular chat. Instead of throwing your questions into a hopper and hope the host answers them, this is a chat room type discussion where questions are asked and answered in real time. Join me and Steve and get your questions answered. I know Jennifer and Martha were both there last week, so if you can leave a comment if you found it valuable that would be appreciated. Here is a link to last week's chat.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.

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Saturday, July 4, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight; Happy Fourth of July!


Happy Birthday America! While we all celebrated today with parades, barbeques, and fireworks, let's not forget what this day is about. This is the day that we declared our independence from England, and the greatest country in the world was formed. We live in a place where anything is possible if you have a dream and work hard. Be thankful for the freedoms and the opportunities that are afforded us here in America, there is truly no other place like it. And of course, be thankful for the men and women who protect our country and keep us safe. Our Armed Forces are a special group and perform an important job. I have the utmost respect for each and every one of them and a special thank you goes out to them on this day. So again, Happy Birthday to the United States of America, the greatest nation in the world! Now, what's more American than baseball? Let's find out what happened today.

Josh Hamilton will not return to the Rangers on Sunday. His rehab game on Saturday was rained out, delaying his return to the majors at least one more day. There is still a chance that Hamilton might return on Monday, but nothing definite has been announced. I will give the news on this again tomorrow, because I am a Hamilton owner as well and I am very curious to see if I will be able to play him in my one league with weekly transactions. Hopefully he will be back on Monday.

Despite pitching less than great in a rehab assignment, Oliver Perez will be back in the Mets' rotation on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Perez allowed three runs over five innings, walking four and striking out four. I understand that given the Mets' situation that they need to get their starters back from injury as soon as possible, but this start doesn't instill any confidence in me that Perez will be any better than he was before he went on the DL. I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole before this start unless you are really desperate for help in pitching.

Kevin Slowey was placed on the 15 day DL, right after he had his worst outing of the season. Slowey allowed six earned runs over just three innings, but he got off the hook for the loss. Slowey has been diagnosed with a strained wrist. I have been unable to come up with a timetable for his return as of now, hopefully it will just be the required 15 days.

Howie Kendrick has been recalled by the Angels, and they optioned Sean Rodriguez. Kendrick hit .346 with two homers, 11 RBI, and four steals while he was in the minors. I would likely give Kendrick a try if he is available in your league. He has always supposed to be a great talent but has struggled in his time in the majors. He should hit for a good average with 10-12 homer power and a dozen steals. Not great, but if you need help at middle infield he could be worth a shot.

Erik Bedard is set to start on Tuesday against the Orioles. Bedard has been great when he has been able to stay on the mound, however he has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career. If you own him, definitely have him ready to start on Tuesday, Bedard is the kind of pitcher that you start against anyone.

Chien-Ming Wang allowed four runs over 5.1 innings, and after the game it was announced that he was diagnosed with a strained shoulder and bursitis. He will be re-evaluated on Sunday, but it seems likely he will miss his next start. I doubt he is owned in too many leagues, but if he is, it might be time to let him go.

Rich Harden had his worst start in who knows how long, and I am struggling to come up with an explanation for why he is pitching so poorly. I have speculated that he could have some sort of injury, but there is absolutely no sign of a report of anything wrong with him. Harden gave up seven earned runs in just two innings and struck out only one. All you can do is keep pitching him every time out. Harden is better than this, and it has to be just a matter of time before he starts to pitch like it.

Although the bullpen couldn't hold the lead for him, Tommy Hanson was great again. It might have only been against the Nationals, but Hanson allowed just one run over seven innings, striking out five. In five of his six starts, Hanson has allowed two runs or less, including three in which he allowed no earned runs. The walks are higher and the strike outs are lower than I expected, but Hanson has been everything else that he was supposed to be, and has to be the early front runner for the NL Rookie of the Year. Continue to start him every time out with extreme confidence.

Francisco Liriano might not have gotten the decision, but he had his third straight start that his owners had to be happy with. He allowed just three runs over seven innings and struck out eight. He has been much better over the last six weeks or so, and hopefully he will continue to improve and he can get back to the form that once made him one of fantasy baseball's most coveted pitchers. I have said before that I don't see his rookie year statistics coming back, and that hasn't changed, but it would be nice to see him pitch like this more often.

David Price was terrible again, and I don't know where the guy who pitched in the playoffs last year went. Price lasted just 1.1 innings, allowed six runs and walked five. Coming into the year I thought that Price was that rare young pitcher that wouldn't be susceptible to the growing pains that most rookies go through. Obviously that won't be the case. Keeper league players, I'm sorry to tell you that you just have to live through these tough times. Price has all the skills, and he will be awesome, who knows when that will be. Honestly, this might be a good opportunity for those who don't own him in keeper leagues to buy low on Price. Seasonal leagues I still wouldn't drop him, but I might see if there was someone in the league who might give you a good deal for him.

Jimmy Rollins is starting to show some signs of life, with five hits in the last three days. He also has three doubles and has driven in four runs over those games, and PERHAPS this is the start of something good. He's still hitting .213, so don't get too excited, but for those of us who have owned him all season long this is about as exciting as it has been all year long.

Is Emilio Bonifacio working his way back to fantasy relevance? He was 4/4 on Saturday and stole his 17th base of the year. He now has a hit in ten of his last eleven games, and six bases over that stretch. I would say if you need stolen bases that he is worth adding to your roster, but just be ready to cut ties with him if another cold streak starts to show.

ESPN.com has relaunched the ESPN Arcade with hundreds of games for you to play. Regardless of your interests there is sure to be something to get you addicted. Sports games, driving games, cards, puzzles, and even action sports. So far I have played Carniball (skeeball), a basketball shooting game, a baseball game in which you try to make a comeback in the bottom of the Ninth, and of course, some video poker. However, my favorite game so far is the Hair & Staches Concentration. This is a timed memory game in which you try to match up cards with some of the more interesting looks in baseball history. Not only fun but funny as well.

Mailing List

I'm not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don't get a request to join it. For those of you who haven't seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.

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