Jed Lowrie was in the Red Sox lineup for the first time since April 11th, and he made the most of his return. He might have only had one hit, but it was for his first home run of the year. He is an interesting fantasy player because he doesn't hit for a lot of power and he doesn't steal a whole lot of bases. However, Lowrie will hit around .300 and he drives in a good number of runs. Last year when he came to the majors he had 46 RBI in just 81 games. If he is available, I would try to make a place for him on your roster. He has eligibility at a couple different positions and depending on the size of your league should be a nice help to your squad, even if it is just in an insurance role.
Scott Kazmir didn't get the win, but he did allow just one run over six innings, and now has three good starts of his four since coming back from the Disabled List. Even though he walked four guys in six innings, this outing will likely calm down the fear of Kazmir's owners who were sweating after he allowed seven runs in his last start. He isn't an elite pitcher, but he is definitely worthy of being your third pitcher. Kaz should be good more often than not, and you should start him in confidence against any opponent.
For all of you Johan Santana owners who are worried about your pitcher because of either his recent performances or the injury situation in New York, hopefully today rested your mind. Please remember two things. Some of his teams in Minnesota that he pitched on weren't that great. Second, Johan's career second half numbers are disgusting. After the All-Star Break for his career, Santana is 58-17 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He also has 734 strikeouts in only 714 innings. Does that make you feel better?
Same thing with the Nolan Reimold owners. I know that a lot of you were very happy with the rookie when he was called up, but he went in a decent sized slump just before the All-Star Break. Good news is he now has two straight multi-hit games since the break has ended. He will likely be somewhat inconsistent for the rest of the season, but I still think he will have a solid season and hit 17-18 home runs.
Alex Rodriguez continues to mash the baseball and is again an elite fantasy player even without the great batting average or his usual 20 stolen bases. A-Rod bombed out his 18th dinger of the year, and now has 51 RBI, despite missing the first month of the season. I don't care that he is hitting in the .250s and he only has three homers, look for Alex to hit at least 25 taters this season, and if he gets hot, perhaps challenge 40.
Can someone please teach Mike Hampton the correct way to transition the baseball from his bare hand to his glove? Hampton looked like he was going to pound the ball into his glove in frustration after allowing a base hit, but there was just one problem. He missed his glove and the ball nearly rolled to the dugout allowing Matt Kemp to score. UGH! Not a good night to be a Houston fan.
Jered Weaver had his sixth straight start that he allowed three earned runs or more, and his amazing start is starting to become more of a distant memory than a part of the norm. He is still getting a good number of strikeouts, and is a basic lock to exceed his career high in wins, but Weaver has been disappointing his owners lately. Given the season he had last year, I can't say that I am supremely confident that this is a small bump in the road and won't continue. I still think Weaver has a good chance to win at least 15 games, but seeing that he had 10 wins at the break, is that really a very good thing?
Charlie Morton had his best start since coming to Pittsburgh from Atlanta in the Nate McLouth trade. Morton threw seven shutout innings, allowed just three hits and struck out six. Now, before you get too excited, his minor league ERA was over 4.00 for his career, and in 15 starts for the Braves last season his ERA was over 6.00. He is not a guy that I would trust unless you are in a 20 team league and you have been dealt a hand that includes a lot of injuries. Stay away from Morton at this point.
Franklin Gutierrez has been a popular pickup lately because he has been so hot, but please don't expect this hitting to continue. He showed some promise in the lower levels of the minor leagues in the earlier in the decade, but since then the projections for his future have dropped. He is already very close to his career highs for homers and RBI and he will likely surpass them, but he will not continue to produce at this clip. Sell high if you can, if not, ride him while he is hot but don't expect it to continue.
Randy Wells actually collected a win on Saturday, but it was the second consecutive start that he allowed four earned runs. He improved to 5-4, but only struck out one batter and raised his ERA to an even 3.00. For those of you who have been reading this column for a while, you know I don't have a ton of confidence in Wells going forward. I think that he will have his share of decent starts, but I think these last few where he has allowed four runs are the start of a trend. Look for that ERA to continue to climb for the rest of July and August.
Manny Parra had his second consecutive solid start since returning from the minor leagues, and now looks like he belongs on fantasy rosters again. Parra allowed only one run over six innings and struck out six against the Reds who aren't an anemic offense. I can't say that I have supreme confidence in Parra going forward, but he has at least proven that he made some sort of adjustment in his time in AAA, and hopefully will stay on the right track. He is a bit of a risk, but it is a good risk at this point.
The demise of Zack Greinke has been horribly over publicized and is just not factual, and tonight he put another chapter in his fantastic season. He might not have gotten the win, but Greinke was rock solid against the Rays. He allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out seven. For all of you who have been worried about Greinke, he has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just twice all year long, and still has more strikeouts than innings pitched. Wins are a bit more of a problem since the Royals have gone in the tank, but he is still an elite pitcher and one of the better keepers as far as pitchers are concerned.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
Johnny Cueto is scheduled to start for the Reds tonight in a 7:10 PM match up against the Mets at Citi Field. Cueto, who was hit hard in his last start, only retired two batters and didn't even make it out of the first inning. When it was all said and done, Cueto allowed nine earned runs on five hits.
If you're a Cueto owner, I wouldn't get too alarmed. Cueto had been experiencing lower back pain, but that shouldn't affect him too much tonight. If you're on the fence about starting or sitting him, I would recommend starting him. Tonight's game is the perfect scenario for a bounce back performance. Cueto will have pitcher friendly Citi Field combined with a depleted Mets' lineup working together in his favor. Look for him to have a quality start, with the right conditions to have a huge game. I wouldn't be surprised if he went seven to eight innings with two or less earned runs and eight or more strikeouts. With the All-Star Break bringing extra days off, Cueto like many pitchers may be on an extended leash. Remember, the Mets have been held to two runs or less in six out of their last seven games, including three shutouts. The Mets are slumping badly, and David Wright has been at the center of it all. The only downside is that Cueto will be facing off with Met's ace Johan Santana. However, Santana has been a little inconsistent his last handful of starts. With Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto swinging the bat well of late, look for Cueto to have a solid shot at a win.
David Wright is just 26 years old, yet has the weight of the world on his shoulders. With a plethora of injuries plaguing the Mets, Wright not only has to pick up the slack on the field, but also in the clubhouse. The Mets are in turmoil, and Wright is one the few players who can turn things around. Sure, Johan Santana is a great figure, but the Mets need an everyday player to step up and lead the team. With players like Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado on the DL, the Mets have been forced to call up many players from the minors, some of which are just not quite ready for the big show. Wright needs to lead by example on the field and off. He needs to take these youngsters in and show them the way.
So what does all of this have to do with fantasy baseball? The answer, It has EVERYTHING to do with fantasy baseball, and not just in regards to David Wright. So far, Wright has posted an impressive .340 batting average, with 20 stolen bases, however his power numbers are quite pedestrian, with just five home runs and 42 RBI. 54 players currently have more RBI that David Wright, including names like Cody Ross and Casey Blake. On top of this, a staggering 161 players have more HR than Wright. What's the deal? Obviously the lack of protection around him has something to do with it. When you combine this with the apparent pitcher friendly Citi Field, you're headed for disaster. Even with a healthy roster, Wright's power numbers would mostly likely be down considerably. From the outside looking in, Wright's lack of power might scare some fantasy owners, but taking a closer look, Wright has merely adjusted his game to adapt to the new ballpark. He's spraying the ball around and looking for a base hit, taking advantage of the spacious dimensions of Citi Field, hence his .340 batting average.
This brings me to my next point. It's not just David Wright who is being affected, the pitching staff is suffering from lack of run support and poor defense. Johan Santana, currently with 9 wins has been a bit shaky of late. On top of poor run support, the Mets defense has been a highlight reel of errors. Misjudging a fly ball, throwing the ball away when there is no chance to get the out, and missing third base, it's like watching a bad little league instructional video on what NOT to do. In Santana's last start, he was clearly rattled after a number of errors and brain farts, as he too joined in on the circus, and blatantly airmailed a ball over the third baseman's head. After the inning, his discontent was clear in the dugout. I believe his words were something to the tune of, "I've had enough of this bleep, let's go!" That sounds about right.
The bottom line is that Wright is still a very valuable fantasy player, but his power numbers are just not there this season. Normally with a player of his caliber, I'd say that he's bound to turn the corner and start mashing. Sadly, I'm afraid I'm on the other side of the fence on this one. Citi Field isn't going to change, and Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado are still huge question marks. Even with a healthy lineup, I'm convinced that Wright's power number would still be down enough for one to take notice. Wright is currently on pace for 11 home runs, while he's hit 63 the past two seasons.
If you're looking for help with stolen bases and batting average, I would recommend keeping Wright on your roster. However, if you're in need of some pop and could use some extra power, you're better off trading Wright. Despite the poor power numbers, his exceptional average and stolen base numbers combined with name recognition will fetch a solid player in return. So don't panic yet, Wright is still an asset to your team, but in the long run if power is what you need, you're going to need to look elsewhere.
John Smoltz had his second start of the season interrupted by rain, but it was much better than his first. Smoltz only pitched four innings, but allowed just three hits, one run, and struck out two. I am still on the fence on what to expect from him this season, but this was definitely a step in the right direction. At this point in his career he is more of a fifth starter in your rotation or even an end of the roster kind of guy. As of right now, I would continue to start him, but keep expectations under control.
What can we expect from Johan Santana while the entire Mets' offense is on the DL? He must have so much pressure on himself to perform, that perhaps he will go into a funk as well. He has now lost three of his last four starts, and was less than stellar on Tuesday. Santana allowed four earned runs over six innings, walked four and struck out four. The walks are so not like Santana that you have to figure that the trend won't continue. If you have worries about Santana, take a look at his career second half numbers, that should make you feel better.
Joe Saunders has had a pattern of one good start, one bad start. Unfortunately for his owners, this was his turn to be a bad start. Saunders allowed eight runs over just 3.2 innings, walked five and struck out only two. He still is on pace to win 15 games, but given his second half last year, I'm not sure if he will reach that number. If you can get a good return for him in a trade, I would certainly consider moving Saunders. I still think he is good enough that I wouldn't just flat out drop him.
Bronson Arroyo got off to a pretty good start, but has been struggling badly of late. He gave up five earned runs on Tuesday, and has now allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts. Arroyo is not a guy that I would hold on my roster unless your league has 16 teams or more. If Arroyo gets a matchup against a weak hitting NL teams I would give him a start, but other than that I would leave him in free agency.
Martin Prado had a great 4/5 game including the winning hit, but don't fall into the trap of picking up the hot hand. Prado has never really been a full-time player, and while he might be earning some playing time with his recent success, there is no way that it will continue. He is a fine part time player, but if he were to play everyday I guarantee his numbers will suffer. Leave him in free agency, that is where he belongs.
Ross Ohlendorff has now given up three runs or less in four of his last five starts after his Tuesday outing. He shut the Cubs out for seven innings and struck out eight batters. Ohlendorff is not anywhere near that kind of strikeout pitcher, as he only had 44 in his previous 89 innings. It was impressive that he was so good against the Cubbies, but this isn't a guy that I would pick up unless I was in an NL only league.
Gordon Beckham had his second consecutive three hit game, and his second consecutive two RBI game. The kid has a ton of potential that I have talked about in these articles before, and now he is starting to put it together some. I still don't believe that he is ready to be a consistent fantasy force, but all those Ofers that he took when he came up are likely behind him. He is worth having on your team (and in keeper leagues is a must have), but I just don't know that he will help you on a daily basis.
Mailing List
I'm not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don't get a request to join it. For those of you who haven't seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.
As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.
