RISK FACTORS IN THE TOP 25

As I prepare for my fantasy drafts this season, I tend to really work on the middle round decisions and the late round gems. After all, that is where you win your fantasy leagues. But as I turn my attention to the top of the draft board I am seeing some disurbing trends that threaten to take me out of my comfort zone.

The Top 25 used to be a place that was a very safe place to play. Sure we would debate if Chase Utley were a Top 8 or Top 15 player but we knew he would be there. We would talk about Ryan Howard's batting average or taking a pitcher early, almost always that was Johann Santana. The debates were interesting but in the end, the players were relatively consistent. Not anymore!

As I was looking at our rankings on FantasyBaseballSearch.com, and I was surprised at how some players have risen and fallen. Our site is not afraid of bucking the trend and our site administrator, Todd Farino, encourages counterintuitive thought. Some of the ranking raised an eyebrow so I decided to look at other sites and compare. To my astonishment, beyond Albert Pujois and Hanley Ramirez, no one agrees with how the players should be ranked.

Let's take a look at some sites, look at where the players are ranked, and dedicate a risk factor of one to ten on each of them with one being a safe bet and ten being a high risk selection. The sites I will use are:

1. FantasyBaseballSearch.com
2. Yahoo.com
3. ESPN.com
4. MockDraftCentral.com (Note: They determined ADP and is not necessarily a rank)

Remember, you don't win your league with your top four picks but you sure as heck can lose your league with bad ones.

1. JUSTIN UPTON, OF- D'BACKS Brandon Funston is working the man crush over at yahoo with a number 12 ranking. Mock Draft is at 26, ESPN is at 20, and we are #23. I know this guy is full of talent but I just can't see myself late in the first round stepping up and taking Upton as a cornerstone player. Great upside but that would flat out be scary. RISK FACTOR: 9
2. JOE MAUER, C -TWINS I guess I am the only guy that remembers Joe hitting the operating table like an ambulance chasing attorney! Disjointed Joe was constantly fighting an array of nagging ailments. Last years 28 dingers were awesome but he only had 29 homers in THE THREE PREVIOUS YEARS COMBINED! You know you are getting average but taking him 10 through 17, not me. RISK FACTOR: 8
3. JASON BAY, OF-NY METS Lot of debate on how CITI Field will affect Bay and just as important, the motivation after the big contract. FantasyBaseballSearch and MDC are almost identical at 24 and 25 but ESPN and Yahoo are at 40 and 38 respectively. I agree with the big boys on this one. I see much greater value further down the draft board and would pass on him anywhere in the first four rounds. RISK FACTOR: 9
4. DAVID WRIGHT, 3B-NY METS Ten Home Runs, five at home, five on the road, and I am supposed to take him as a bounce back candidate in the second round. Of the four sites, we are the most bullish at 27 Wright is far from a sure thing in the second round. I think he will bounce back but I will not pull the trigger in the first two rounds. RISK FACTOR: 7
5. TIM LINCECUM, P-GIANTS Great pitcher, Cy Young, filthy stuff, huge K numbers. What is not to like? How about taking him with your 8th pick overall. All four sites are right together so step up and take him in the first round. No way! I am not burning my first round pick on a guy that only won 15 games a year ago and has never won 20 games in his career. If I am taking a pitcher in the first round he has to deliver in ALL catagories. RISK FACTOR: 4

Finally, who is number three. I am still working through this as I slot my draft board and I am still undecided. Here are our choices:

1. AROD Mr Consistency is back, low steal total but with a full year is still pounding the rock. (YAHOO AND MOCK DRAFT)
2. Ryan Braun Check out his last three year numbers: .308/34/106/99/16. Yea, still has upside. I wish he played a different position, but I think this is the second best player in baseball. Hanley plays shortstop, so you have to take him number two, but Braun is a beast. (FANTASYBASEBALLSEARCH AND ESPN)

As you can see, the top tier of players is far from a sure thing. I hope we all guess right!

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Johnny B. Good

Johnny Cueto is scheduled to start for the Reds tonight in a 7:10 PM match up against the Mets at Citi Field. Cueto, who was hit hard in his last start, only retired two batters and didn't even make it out of the first inning. When it was all said and done, Cueto allowed nine earned runs on five hits.

If you're a Cueto owner, I wouldn't get too alarmed. Cueto had been experiencing lower back pain, but that shouldn't affect him too much tonight. If you're on the fence about starting or sitting him, I would recommend starting him. Tonight's game is the perfect scenario for a bounce back performance. Cueto will have pitcher friendly Citi Field combined with a depleted Mets' lineup working together in his favor. Look for him to have a quality start, with the right conditions to have a huge game. I wouldn't be surprised if he went seven to eight innings with two or less earned runs and eight or more strikeouts. With the All-Star Break bringing extra days off, Cueto like many pitchers may be on an extended leash. Remember, the Mets have been held to two runs or less in six out of their last seven games, including three shutouts. The Mets are slumping badly, and David Wright has been at the center of it all. The only downside is that Cueto will be facing off with Met's ace Johan Santana. However, Santana has been a little inconsistent his last handful of starts. With Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto swinging the bat well of late, look for Cueto to have a solid shot at a win.

Wrighting The Ship

David Wright is just 26 years old, yet has the weight of the world on his shoulders. With a plethora of injuries plaguing the Mets, Wright not only has to pick up the slack on the field, but also in the clubhouse. The Mets are in turmoil, and Wright is one the few players who can turn things around. Sure, Johan Santana is a great figure, but the Mets need an everyday player to step up and lead the team. With players like Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado on the DL, the Mets have been forced to call up many players from the minors, some of which are just not quite ready for the big show. Wright needs to lead by example on the field and off. He needs to take these youngsters in and show them the way.

So what does all of this have to do with fantasy baseball? The answer, It has EVERYTHING to do with fantasy baseball, and not just in regards to David Wright. So far, Wright has posted an impressive .340 batting average, with 20 stolen bases, however his power numbers are quite pedestrian, with just five home runs and 42 RBI. 54 players currently have more RBI that David Wright, including names like Cody Ross and Casey Blake. On top of this, a staggering 161 players have more HR than Wright. What's the deal? Obviously the lack of protection around him has something to do with it. When you combine this with the apparent pitcher friendly Citi Field, you're headed for disaster. Even with a healthy roster, Wright's power numbers would mostly likely be down considerably. From the outside looking in, Wright's lack of power might scare some fantasy owners, but taking a closer look, Wright has merely adjusted his game to adapt to the new ballpark. He's spraying the ball around and looking for a base hit, taking advantage of the spacious dimensions of Citi Field, hence his .340 batting average.

This brings me to my next point. It's not just David Wright who is being affected, the pitching staff is suffering from lack of run support and poor defense. Johan Santana, currently with 9 wins has been a bit shaky of late. On top of poor run support, the Mets defense has been a highlight reel of errors. Misjudging a fly ball, throwing the ball away when there is no chance to get the out, and missing third base, it's like watching a bad little league instructional video on what NOT to do. In Santana's last start, he was clearly rattled after a number of errors and brain farts, as he too joined in on the circus, and blatantly airmailed a ball over the third baseman's head. After the inning, his discontent was clear in the dugout. I believe his words were something to the tune of, "I've had enough of this bleep, let's go!" That sounds about right.

The bottom line is that Wright is still a very valuable fantasy player, but his power numbers are just not there this season. Normally with a player of his caliber, I'd say that he's bound to turn the corner and start mashing. Sadly, I'm afraid I'm on the other side of the fence on this one. Citi Field isn't going to change, and Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado are still huge question marks. Even with a healthy lineup, I'm convinced that Wright's power number would still be down enough for one to take notice. Wright is currently on pace for 11 home runs, while he's hit 63 the past two seasons.

If you're looking for help with stolen bases and batting average, I would recommend keeping Wright on your roster. However, if you're in need of some pop and could use some extra power, you're better off trading Wright. Despite the poor power numbers, his exceptional average and stolen base numbers combined with name recognition will fetch a solid player in return. So don't panic yet, Wright is still an asset to your team, but in the long run if power is what you need, you're going to need to look elsewhere.