RISK FACTORS IN THE TOP 25

As I prepare for my fantasy drafts this season, I tend to really work on the middle round decisions and the late round gems. After all, that is where you win your fantasy leagues. But as I turn my attention to the top of the draft board I am seeing some disurbing trends that threaten to take me out of my comfort zone.

The Top 25 used to be a place that was a very safe place to play. Sure we would debate if Chase Utley were a Top 8 or Top 15 player but we knew he would be there. We would talk about Ryan Howard's batting average or taking a pitcher early, almost always that was Johann Santana. The debates were interesting but in the end, the players were relatively consistent. Not anymore!

As I was looking at our rankings on FantasyBaseballSearch.com, and I was surprised at how some players have risen and fallen. Our site is not afraid of bucking the trend and our site administrator, Todd Farino, encourages counterintuitive thought. Some of the ranking raised an eyebrow so I decided to look at other sites and compare. To my astonishment, beyond Albert Pujois and Hanley Ramirez, no one agrees with how the players should be ranked.

Let's take a look at some sites, look at where the players are ranked, and dedicate a risk factor of one to ten on each of them with one being a safe bet and ten being a high risk selection. The sites I will use are:

1. FantasyBaseballSearch.com
2. Yahoo.com
3. ESPN.com
4. MockDraftCentral.com (Note: They determined ADP and is not necessarily a rank)

Remember, you don't win your league with your top four picks but you sure as heck can lose your league with bad ones.

1. JUSTIN UPTON, OF- D'BACKS Brandon Funston is working the man crush over at yahoo with a number 12 ranking. Mock Draft is at 26, ESPN is at 20, and we are #23. I know this guy is full of talent but I just can't see myself late in the first round stepping up and taking Upton as a cornerstone player. Great upside but that would flat out be scary. RISK FACTOR: 9
2. JOE MAUER, C -TWINS I guess I am the only guy that remembers Joe hitting the operating table like an ambulance chasing attorney! Disjointed Joe was constantly fighting an array of nagging ailments. Last years 28 dingers were awesome but he only had 29 homers in THE THREE PREVIOUS YEARS COMBINED! You know you are getting average but taking him 10 through 17, not me. RISK FACTOR: 8
3. JASON BAY, OF-NY METS Lot of debate on how CITI Field will affect Bay and just as important, the motivation after the big contract. FantasyBaseballSearch and MDC are almost identical at 24 and 25 but ESPN and Yahoo are at 40 and 38 respectively. I agree with the big boys on this one. I see much greater value further down the draft board and would pass on him anywhere in the first four rounds. RISK FACTOR: 9
4. DAVID WRIGHT, 3B-NY METS Ten Home Runs, five at home, five on the road, and I am supposed to take him as a bounce back candidate in the second round. Of the four sites, we are the most bullish at 27 Wright is far from a sure thing in the second round. I think he will bounce back but I will not pull the trigger in the first two rounds. RISK FACTOR: 7
5. TIM LINCECUM, P-GIANTS Great pitcher, Cy Young, filthy stuff, huge K numbers. What is not to like? How about taking him with your 8th pick overall. All four sites are right together so step up and take him in the first round. No way! I am not burning my first round pick on a guy that only won 15 games a year ago and has never won 20 games in his career. If I am taking a pitcher in the first round he has to deliver in ALL catagories. RISK FACTOR: 4

Finally, who is number three. I am still working through this as I slot my draft board and I am still undecided. Here are our choices:

1. AROD Mr Consistency is back, low steal total but with a full year is still pounding the rock. (YAHOO AND MOCK DRAFT)
2. Ryan Braun Check out his last three year numbers: .308/34/106/99/16. Yea, still has upside. I wish he played a different position, but I think this is the second best player in baseball. Hanley plays shortstop, so you have to take him number two, but Braun is a beast. (FANTASYBASEBALLSEARCH AND ESPN)

As you can see, the top tier of players is far from a sure thing. I hope we all guess right!

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.