RISK FACTORS IN THE TOP 25

As I prepare for my fantasy drafts this season, I tend to really work on the middle round decisions and the late round gems. After all, that is where you win your fantasy leagues. But as I turn my attention to the top of the draft board I am seeing some disurbing trends that threaten to take me out of my comfort zone.

The Top 25 used to be a place that was a very safe place to play. Sure we would debate if Chase Utley were a Top 8 or Top 15 player but we knew he would be there. We would talk about Ryan Howard's batting average or taking a pitcher early, almost always that was Johann Santana. The debates were interesting but in the end, the players were relatively consistent. Not anymore!

As I was looking at our rankings on FantasyBaseballSearch.com, and I was surprised at how some players have risen and fallen. Our site is not afraid of bucking the trend and our site administrator, Todd Farino, encourages counterintuitive thought. Some of the ranking raised an eyebrow so I decided to look at other sites and compare. To my astonishment, beyond Albert Pujois and Hanley Ramirez, no one agrees with how the players should be ranked.

Let's take a look at some sites, look at where the players are ranked, and dedicate a risk factor of one to ten on each of them with one being a safe bet and ten being a high risk selection. The sites I will use are:

1. FantasyBaseballSearch.com
2. Yahoo.com
3. ESPN.com
4. MockDraftCentral.com (Note: They determined ADP and is not necessarily a rank)

Remember, you don't win your league with your top four picks but you sure as heck can lose your league with bad ones.

1. JUSTIN UPTON, OF- D'BACKS Brandon Funston is working the man crush over at yahoo with a number 12 ranking. Mock Draft is at 26, ESPN is at 20, and we are #23. I know this guy is full of talent but I just can't see myself late in the first round stepping up and taking Upton as a cornerstone player. Great upside but that would flat out be scary. RISK FACTOR: 9
2. JOE MAUER, C -TWINS I guess I am the only guy that remembers Joe hitting the operating table like an ambulance chasing attorney! Disjointed Joe was constantly fighting an array of nagging ailments. Last years 28 dingers were awesome but he only had 29 homers in THE THREE PREVIOUS YEARS COMBINED! You know you are getting average but taking him 10 through 17, not me. RISK FACTOR: 8
3. JASON BAY, OF-NY METS Lot of debate on how CITI Field will affect Bay and just as important, the motivation after the big contract. FantasyBaseballSearch and MDC are almost identical at 24 and 25 but ESPN and Yahoo are at 40 and 38 respectively. I agree with the big boys on this one. I see much greater value further down the draft board and would pass on him anywhere in the first four rounds. RISK FACTOR: 9
4. DAVID WRIGHT, 3B-NY METS Ten Home Runs, five at home, five on the road, and I am supposed to take him as a bounce back candidate in the second round. Of the four sites, we are the most bullish at 27 Wright is far from a sure thing in the second round. I think he will bounce back but I will not pull the trigger in the first two rounds. RISK FACTOR: 7
5. TIM LINCECUM, P-GIANTS Great pitcher, Cy Young, filthy stuff, huge K numbers. What is not to like? How about taking him with your 8th pick overall. All four sites are right together so step up and take him in the first round. No way! I am not burning my first round pick on a guy that only won 15 games a year ago and has never won 20 games in his career. If I am taking a pitcher in the first round he has to deliver in ALL catagories. RISK FACTOR: 4

Finally, who is number three. I am still working through this as I slot my draft board and I am still undecided. Here are our choices:

1. AROD Mr Consistency is back, low steal total but with a full year is still pounding the rock. (YAHOO AND MOCK DRAFT)
2. Ryan Braun Check out his last three year numbers: .308/34/106/99/16. Yea, still has upside. I wish he played a different position, but I think this is the second best player in baseball. Hanley plays shortstop, so you have to take him number two, but Braun is a beast. (FANTASYBASEBALLSEARCH AND ESPN)

As you can see, the top tier of players is far from a sure thing. I hope we all guess right!

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 8/6

OK, I'm back. I'm sure you were all going through withdrawal as the posts are starting to slow down for the 2009 season. Plenty went on in the last few days, so let's get right to it!

Elijah Dukes is back in the majors, and his manager has said that he is going to see plenty of playing time in the outfield. You all know that I am not the biggest Dukes fan, but if you have an injury or a player who is really disappointing he might be able to help you in the short term. Dukes had three hits, including a home run, and drove in four runs. He could give you a little speed and a little pop in a Washington lineup that could badly use a shot in the arm.

Rick Porcello threw his second straight good start and won his tenth game of the year. Even though he picked up the win, his numbers weren't incredibly impressive. Porcello allowed two runs over 5.2 innings, but he walked three and only struck out one. I know a lot of you have considered letting him go, but I just don't think you should do that. In keeper leagues you should have your head checked for letting him go, but seasonal leagues I still think he has plenty of value. Just don't expect a thousand strikeouts.

Fausto Carmona had his second consecutive positive start, but I am not buying into him being a reasonable starting pitcher in the majors again. Three reasons. First he walks way too many and doesn't strike nearly enough out. Second, the Indians got rid of a lot of their talent at the deadline. Third, their closer, Kerry Wood is terrible, meaning sometimes even if he pitches well the lead might be blown for him. I would stay away from Carmona.

Cliff Lee was awesome again for the Phillies and is further proving how much the American League and the Cleveland Indians were holding him back. Lee allowed only one run for the second consecutive start and struck out nine over seven innings. If any of you had any concerns over Lee's transition (and I'm not sure who would) they have been answered resoundingly in his first two outings.

Brad Lidge had a fairly uneventful save for once tonight against Colorado as he allowed only one hit and struck out two in his appearance on Thursday. Perhaps this is the start of a solid finish to the season for Lidge. Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!

Tommy Hunter bounced back from his worst start since coming to the majors by beating the A's and improved his record to 4-2. His ERA is well under 3.00, but Hunter isn't a big strikeout guy at all. He only allowed more than three earned runs in one of his eight starts, and his WHIP is just 1.19. Hunter had been impressive in previous years in the minors, but had struggled this season at both AA and AAA. The Rangers know how to hit though, so he should always get run support. I wouldn't put a ton of stock in Hunter, but picking him up while he is hot isn't the worst idea.

Justin Upton landed on the DL with a strained oblique and is likely out for around a month. Oblique injuries take time to heal, so you are probably looking at early September before he is eligible to return. Hopefully you have some sort of reasonable option on your bench to plug in his place. If you need to pick up a free agent and need some advice, don't hesitate to email me.

Trent Oeltjen was called up to the majors when Justin Upton went on the Disabled List. He is not one of the Diamondbacks best prospects, but he could bring you some speed if you are in need, and perhaps even a little bit of power. This year was his best in the minors as he was hitting .300 in 106 games at AAA with 10 homers, 61 RBI with 19 steals. With Upton out he could earn good playing time in the outfield for the D'Backs. They have nothing going for them this year, so it makes sense for them to give a young guy a shot. Oeltjen got off to a good start with two hits (including a homer) and two steals. If he keeps this up you can bet he will see plenty of at-bats.

Geovany Soto is due to return from the Disabled List from his own oblique injury. He hasn't played since July 7th, so that gives you some indication on how long to expect Upton to be out. Soto was doing horrible even when he was healthy, so it is hard to know what to expect. However, if you have been stashing him, chances are you haven't found a better option while he ws hurt.

Jason Bay could miss the entire Yankee series this weekend according to his manager Terry Francona. He almost definitely will miss Friday's game and they will re-evaluate him from there. Bay reaggravated a hamstring injury on Wednesday against the Rays. Francona also said that Bay would avoid the DL, so hopefully he will be back before the weekend is over. Kevin Youkilis takes over in left field, so if you are in a league that only requires a game or two to gain eligibility Youk could gain even more value.

Chad Gaudin was traded from the San Diego Padres to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later. This is the equivalent of one of those third world children you see on the commercials that can be helped for just 25 cents a day being adopted by Angelina Jolie. He hadn't been pitching well, but he is pretty good at getting strikeouts. He will get a ton more run support in New York, but the change in ballparks won't be good for him though. His value obviously goes up in New York, but don't all of a sudden think that he is going to be some incredible pitcher.

Don't forget to send me an email about the football email list. Much like in baseball if I find breaking news I will shoot out a quick email to you so you can hopefully make a move before your competition. Put football mailing list in the subject line to fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.