Some Pitchers Doomed for Collapse

Brandon Lyon-Being named the closer recently has shot up his value. Don't go giving him 40 saves just yet. PECOTA is projecting a 4.56 ERA and a 56% chance of collapse; numbers that will definitely make him lose his job. Pena and Qualls are more than capable, and even Juan Cruz could probably make do.

With a 4.9 K rate and a 2.7 BB rate, there is no way Lyon should hold this job all year. It is possible he could have some resurgence of skill, but there is no reason to predict it. Moreover, he had a 4.94 xERA last year versus an actual ERA of 2.68 (!) and a base performance value far below what is expected of a successful closer. Sell, sell, sell and now.
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