Jacoby Ellsbury Is The Steal of The 2008 Draft
Ok, I took a massive beating in my latest Expert Mock Draft hosted by Mock Draft Central for many of my picks, but I really got hammered for taking Jacoby Ellsbury with the last pick in the 9th round or the 108 overall pick. Sure it was early. Yahoo! has him ranked 126, and his average draft position is 132.1. Mock Draft Central has him ranked at a ADP of 122. So why then did I get hammered for taking him with the 108 pick when I wouldn't have another pick till 132?
Allot of experts don't see the potential of Jacoby Ellsbury, and I'm here to put the doubters out on their heels. Last season Ellsbury emerged in September and was on fire for 15 games. He batted .353 in 33 total games. He added 3 home runs and 9 stolen bases with 41 hits. The guy was a monster. He continued his hot streak into the 2007 playoffs (including the World Series) going 10/24 (.416 average), 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2 SB, and 4 extra base hits.
He did all that while being a rookie with only 116 major league at bats on one of the biggest stages of them all, the World Series. Talk about pressure on a 24 year old! So now we are at 2008, and still some of the experts don't feel he'll be the starting center fielder for the Red Sox. I can't possibly think of a reason why? Odds are the Red Sox will trade Crisp with the resigning of Keilty, and even if there is a miracle chance Crisp starts he'll be replaced by Ellsbury by early May.
Of course forget that everyone in Boston loves the kid including Terry Francona, Theo Epstein, and my wife. The Boston Herald even did a story interviewing the greatest Red Sox center fielder Fred Lynn called Lynn: Ellsbury has familiar look. In this excellent article Fred praises Ellsbury's skills and compares Ellsbury to himself in his early years and a stellar Red Sox center fielder in 1975.
Could 2008 be Jacoby Ellsbury's remaking of Fred Lynn's 1975 where Lynn won the Rookie of the Year and the MVP? Let's not get crazy, no MVP is coming his way. In our opinion he's a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year for the American League. Here's our projections for Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008 as the lead-off batter for the Boston Red Sox. Assuming he starts and he will, we see the following 2008 Projections:
500+ At Bats
.315
12 Home Runs
45 SB
.365 OBP
75 RBI
100+ runs.
You got it. That's what we expect out of him and we are being somewhat conservative. I'm banking on the fact that the kid hammered the ball in the world series with more pressure on him than the atmosphere of Venus. It's crazy to expect less from this rising star in MLB. Even Geoffrey Stein over at Mock Draft Central agrees, "Ellsbury is the rookie to have". I don't doubt that if he starts on opening day for the Red Sox he'll be a All-Star candidate.
So back to the draft. I took him with the 108th pick in the Expert Mock draft and I think it was an absolute steal. No question about it. The draft was being being Broadcast by Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports. Paul is highly respected throughout fantasy baseball and by Fantasy Baseball Search, but we disagree with his comments on the pick. He commented on my pick as being "questionable" and Tony Cincotta over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia commented the pick was "too early". I respectfully disagree with both.
If I feel that Ellsbury is going to put up the projected numbers I think he will, then he was an absolutel theft in the middle of the night while the other experts were sleeping.
Also consider the fact that he very well would have been gone by the time my 11th pick (132 overall) came around, so it was a genius pick on my part. In my opinion Ellsbury should be a 5th or 6th round pick, so if you get him after that he's a steal.
Listen to my radio show as I will be watching this kid closely and discussing him with the experts all season. Hey, if I'm wrong, well at least I won't be alone. The Red Sox, Fred Lynn, and many experts like Geoffrey Stein will also be wrong.
Don't worry, he'll give Jose Reyes a run for his money. Get the pun "Run", you know speed? COME ON!
Todd "The True GURU" Farino
Allot of experts don't see the potential of Jacoby Ellsbury, and I'm here to put the doubters out on their heels. Last season Ellsbury emerged in September and was on fire for 15 games. He batted .353 in 33 total games. He added 3 home runs and 9 stolen bases with 41 hits. The guy was a monster. He continued his hot streak into the 2007 playoffs (including the World Series) going 10/24 (.416 average), 6 runs, 4 RBI, 2 SB, and 4 extra base hits.
He did all that while being a rookie with only 116 major league at bats on one of the biggest stages of them all, the World Series. Talk about pressure on a 24 year old! So now we are at 2008, and still some of the experts don't feel he'll be the starting center fielder for the Red Sox. I can't possibly think of a reason why? Odds are the Red Sox will trade Crisp with the resigning of Keilty, and even if there is a miracle chance Crisp starts he'll be replaced by Ellsbury by early May.
Of course forget that everyone in Boston loves the kid including Terry Francona, Theo Epstein, and my wife. The Boston Herald even did a story interviewing the greatest Red Sox center fielder Fred Lynn called Lynn: Ellsbury has familiar look. In this excellent article Fred praises Ellsbury's skills and compares Ellsbury to himself in his early years and a stellar Red Sox center fielder in 1975.
Could 2008 be Jacoby Ellsbury's remaking of Fred Lynn's 1975 where Lynn won the Rookie of the Year and the MVP? Let's not get crazy, no MVP is coming his way. In our opinion he's a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year for the American League. Here's our projections for Jacoby Ellsbury in 2008 as the lead-off batter for the Boston Red Sox. Assuming he starts and he will, we see the following 2008 Projections:
500+ At Bats
.315
12 Home Runs
45 SB
.365 OBP
75 RBI
100+ runs.
You got it. That's what we expect out of him and we are being somewhat conservative. I'm banking on the fact that the kid hammered the ball in the world series with more pressure on him than the atmosphere of Venus. It's crazy to expect less from this rising star in MLB. Even Geoffrey Stein over at Mock Draft Central agrees, "Ellsbury is the rookie to have". I don't doubt that if he starts on opening day for the Red Sox he'll be a All-Star candidate.
So back to the draft. I took him with the 108th pick in the Expert Mock draft and I think it was an absolute steal. No question about it. The draft was being being Broadcast by Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports. Paul is highly respected throughout fantasy baseball and by Fantasy Baseball Search, but we disagree with his comments on the pick. He commented on my pick as being "questionable" and Tony Cincotta over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia commented the pick was "too early". I respectfully disagree with both.
If I feel that Ellsbury is going to put up the projected numbers I think he will, then he was an absolutel theft in the middle of the night while the other experts were sleeping.
Also consider the fact that he very well would have been gone by the time my 11th pick (132 overall) came around, so it was a genius pick on my part. In my opinion Ellsbury should be a 5th or 6th round pick, so if you get him after that he's a steal.
Listen to my radio show as I will be watching this kid closely and discussing him with the experts all season. Hey, if I'm wrong, well at least I won't be alone. The Red Sox, Fred Lynn, and many experts like Geoffrey Stein will also be wrong.
Don't worry, he'll give Jose Reyes a run for his money. Get the pun "Run", you know speed? COME ON!
Todd "The True GURU" Farino
posted by The True GURU at
Thursday, February 28, 2008
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