Vicious Experts at the MDC Expert Mock Draft 3

Wow was I railed by by the experts at the latest installment of Mock Draft Central's Expert Mock Draft. First off I want to state how impressed I was with Mock Draft Central's draft system and I recommend all leagues to use it and sign up with them for FREE ASAP.

The Expert Mock Draft held on February 25th was also broadcast by Paul Greco of Melnick And Greco Fantasy Sports. It included many experts from around the industry like ESPN, Rotowire, and MLB.com.

There are different philosophies at work in a draft, and I don't want to waste too much time on them, but here is my opinion on the different wisdom's used in a draft and the lack of genuine courtesy amongst fellow experts.

First off, what is an expert anyway? Do we just tag ourselves expert, do others call us an expert, or do we have a fancy nameplate on our desk that says, "Fantasy Baseball Expert".

Either way all of us think in one of two ways, conventional wisdom and unconventional wisdom. These two broad philosophies have been waging a quiet and somewhat peaceful war on the blogs and fantasy information pages throughout the Internet over the years.



On one hand you have the more common conventional wisdom, which stands by its proud and proven tools of statistical studies, 3-year projections, and future projections based on reliable current news and information. It's almost like a preset algorithm that you just pump the numbers into and shazzam you have 'Jose Reyes = Awesome Player'. Their logic is flawless, and they're information is updated with the latest team and player news. The only flaws in conventional wisdom is it sometimes ignores the unconventional that impacts fantasy baseball.



Then there is the less common, but growing philosophy of unconventional wisdom. While this wisdom takes into account all the tools and information that the conventional wisdom uses, it also considers unconventional factors involving players that will cause players to become more or less valuable then conventional wisdom thinks. You see, conventional wisdom didn't see Mike Lowell having such a great 2007, Johan Santana's down year, or Jonathan Papelbon's rise in 2006. Sure they will see Ryan Howard's breakout or Hanley Ramirez's mad skills, but can they spot the next unknown breakout? I believe unconventional wisdom thinkers do it all the time.

With that said, lets get back to the expert draft. I was so lucky to get the 12th pick in a 12 team draft (Sarcasm), which is a tough pick since you get 2 picks in a row, but then wait 23 picks to pick again. When my pick arrived I had a fairly simple choice. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, and others you'd expect to be around. In my situation I firmly believe both types of wisdom would choose Pujols as I did. His ADP (Average Draft Position is the 8th pick and regardless of his elbow problems he hit 32 HRs with it last season. If there was a significant chance he would be out for the year no one including me would take him.

Now, Paul Greco on his radio broadcast bashed me for my selection. Listen to his podcast here. Why would you bash a guy for selecting Albert Pujols with the 12th pick? MDC (Mock Draft Central) had two previous Expert Mock Drafts where Pujosl was taken #3 and #7 in the second draft.

First Expert Mock Draft
Second Expert Mock Draft

Unconventional wisdom, which I believe that I give and subscribe to dictates that I would actually pick the guys who I think are going to have an outstanding season. With unconventional wisdom I believe that Ryan Braun is going to have an outstanding season, so with my 13th overall pick I took Ryan Braun knowing he wouldn't be around by my next pick and knowing he will qualify as a OF/3B! Again Paul Greco and some other experts bashed me even know he has a ADP of 13.67, and I guess didn't realize he would be an outfielder as well.

Now, how do they know right now that I didn't make a great pick? Who are they to say I was wrong in selecting a player who hit 34 home runs in a shortened season? Its fair for them to disagree, but how can they say I'm wrong when the season still needs to be played out.

One focus of mine in this draft and with my own unconventional wisdom is I selected the players I have studied and feel will have great or breakout seasons. I didn't just go with the default ranking based on conventional wisdom and select the next ranked player. I went with my expert wisdom and I made other selections based on my own theories. I'm not saying all my picks were good, several weren't, but I've won enough leagues to know I'm doing something right.

Then I was bashed for my 5th round pick of Chone Figgins saying he was a one-dimentional stolen base player with one good season and nothing more. Well, again the unfair and ill informed analysis. Actually Chone Figgins has had three fairly stellar seasons with a total of 155 stolen bases, averaging 164 hits and a .296 average. Of course last season he batted .330. I like this guy. Not only do I think he will have a regular spot in the lineup (DUH), but he's a great lead off batter. Let's compare Chone Figgins to Jose Reyes in 2007:

Jose Reyes had 681 atbats, 191 hits, .280, 78 stolen bases.
Chone Figgins who was hurt last year had 442 atbats, 146 hits, .330, and 41 stolen bases.

Now, Jose Reyes was a justified 3rd pick of the draft. Chone Figgins was the last pick of the 5th round. Not bad value for the 5th round right? Especially when he only played in 115 games due to injury. The two previous seasons Figgins played in 158 and 155 games, and had over 600 at bats, so my EXPERT WISDOM sees allot of value in this player. Paul Greco and company did not agree. You have to ask yourself why? Were they bashing just to bash? Is there a friendly rivalry here? I don't know. Chone Figgins ADP is 54.58, and I got him with the 60th pick.

The final pick I will mention is my pick of Jacoby Ellsbury. First off I'm a huge Red Sox fan, and I have contacts close to the Red Sox organization that CF is his to lose. He will start there. Now, I took him with the last pick in the 9th round. Again, I have been telling my readers how great he can be, and I believe his numbers will rival Jose Reyes numbers. Based on that I think he was a steal in the 9th round. Last season in limited activity of 33 games, and only starting 16 games he got 41 hits, 3 home runs, and 9 stolen bases. If you just do the averages for a full season with conservative expectations he should get 600 atbats, 190 hits, 15 home runs, and 50-60 stolen bases. Now, how good does the pick look now? Sure it s a risk, but that what I'm here for. To tell you who will breakout in 2008 and now just spoon feed you the same great players from the previous season like conventional wisdom experts will do. I used my expert analysis to determine his value.

Of course I was bashed for taking him too early. Frankly I was bashed all night. My philosophy going into this mock draft was I wasn't going to play it safe. I wanted to pick the players I'm telling you to pick. Now, I have an expert league draft coming up so I wanted to be careful not to play my full hand, but I made my point.

I will hold on to this team and comment how well it did at the end of the season good or bad. To see the full mock draft I participated in:

MDC Expert Mock Draft 3

I want this post to serve as a warning to all experts who feel they have the right to bash other expert's rankings. We are all making educated guesses and we will all get some right and some wrong. We shouldn't be negative to our fellow experts and instead politely disagree. I will comment more on this on my Radio Show Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show I welcome your comments on my position.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino