THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft Review
THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Mock Draft
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The Censor was privileged to participate in the first 2009 expert mock draft on Sunday night (thanks to Tony Cincotta for the invite). While there were plenty of storylines and strange picks (including some sketchy mid-round offense picks by yours truly)--and a whole lot of reaches on drafting catchers--my role here is that of the SP nerd and I will focus my attention accordingly. You've hopefully been following along as I've been ranking the top 20 SPs for 2009; here is the Who and the Where of the top 20 starters in the first real 2009 draft.
1. Johan Santana (r2p14) - Yours truly was more than happy to get the party started. Frankly I think Santana is a first-rounder but with the soft wheel, I took a power 1B in Howard and crossed my fingers to get Johan coming back. Verdict: Definitely a fair spot.
2. C.C. Sabathia (r3p30) - You can't blame anyone for loving Sabathia after what he's done in the last two months. Now that he's going to the playoffs and getting his offseason money, it might be worthwhile to be a bit leery. Verdict: Not bad, but a bit risky for my taste.
3. Jake Peavy (r3p33) - This owner was reaching all day long and this was no different--no pitcher with a single-digit win season can be taken this high, especially with Peavy's breakdown this month and no real hope of the Padres getting much better next year. Verdict: At least a full round too early.
4. Brandon Webb (r3p36) - Webb's string of poor starts late in the season probably cost him the Cy Young, but he's a horse and one of the few sure things around, so even though I have a pitcher ranked above him, Webb is a solid pick in the late third or early fourth. Verdict: Hard to disagree with.
5. Tim Lincecum (r4p38) - The Censor's second SP was taken here with much elation. If you ever have the opportunity to take the major league strikeout leader in the fourth round, it is cause to celebrate. I realize there's injury concerns with the high pitch count but not enough to discount him and his sick numbers this far. Verdict: A value pick at worst and a potential act of larceny.
6. Roy Halladay (r5p55) - A perfect spot for the 20-game winner and IP monster. Cross your fingers he keeps the strikeouts up. Verdict: Right where I would have taken him.
7. Dan Haren (r6p63) - There were so many times this season when Haren looked like a top-tier pitcher, but another late season fade probably should have pushed him a bit lower than this. If an owner really wants Haren though, this is a fair spot. Verdict: I'd rather have Hamels, but the 6th round is fair value for Haren.
8. Scott Kazmir (r6p64) - Another questionable pick by the owner who took Peavy. Kazmir's potential is maddening but until he sees the seventh inning with consistency and gets his awful pitches per batter faced number down, he is nowhere near this level. Verdict: At least five pitchers on the board who should have gone before Kazmir.
9. Cliff Lee (r6p67) - My feelings on Lee are well-known--this is exactly where I've always said he should go and exactly where I have him in my rankings. A 22-win season is probably not repeatable, but his peripherals point to another top-10 season next year--for an improved Indians team. Verdict: Well done.
10. Josh Beckett (r6p68) - I don't know if this was an autopick, or just an excitable Red Sox fan, but this is a bad pick. Josh Beckett is not a top 20 pitcher going into 2009. Verdict: Whoops.
11. Cole Hamels (r6p69) - Should have gone earlier than the four pitchers taken before him--if Hamels drops into your lap this late in a draft, the fates have smiled upon you. Even a weary Mets fan like the Censor knows that Hamels has a Cy Young or two in his near future. Verdict: Smashing value; the fourth round is justifiable for Hamels.
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka (r7p75) - The WHIP obviously needs to come down a bit but pitching for such a good team is always going to be a positive. DiceK actually had a win for every nine innings he pitched--think Jake Peavy is jealous? Verdict: Looks high at first glance, but in reality a solid pick.
13. John Lackey (r8p85) - I have dropped Lackey and his declining strikeout rate lower than this in my rankings, but don't forget he has a solid track record and pitches for a great team. With a full season of health, an uptick is a reasonably expectation. Verdict: No higher than this, and not before Billingsley, but Lackey in the 8th round is probably fair.
14. Chad Billingsley (r8p86) - I've had words about Billingsley being overrated, but this is far from overrated, and I was more than happy to make him my third SP in this spot. In reality he should have gone before the two pitchers taken before him. Verdict: At the risk of self-congratulating, I have to call this great value.
15. Felix Hernandez (r8p88) - Every time I watch him actually throw the ball, I bump him up about five slots, so it's tough to fault someone for this, but in reality he's still a spec play until he puts it together for a full season--and he pitches for the worst team in baseball. Verdict: He could have waited another round at least.
16. Roy Oswalt (r8p89) - Here's another example of trusting a track record. We all wish Oswalt could have been a bit more steady instead of a bad run, then an amazing run, but as a second starter he's a great choice. Verdict: The upside is not great but it's tough to argue with after the last two months.
17. James Shields (r8p90) - I've said many times that I think Shields and his unreal changeup are going to win a Cy Young, and that could be soon. There's a great chance he's the ace of the Rays next year. I wouldn't take him earlier than this but I will be looking for him in the late 8th or early 9th all year, and I can't wait to see him pitch in the playoffs. Verdict: Just about right, and could pay huge dividends next year.
18. Carlos Zambrano (r9p99) - A weird, weird season. The only problem here is the injury and whether the no-hitter may have really exacerbated it. But we should know that for sure by February and if all looks good, Zambrano's stuff makes him a solid top 20 pitcher. Verdict: A toss-up until we see how he holds up in the playoffs.
19. Yovani Gallardo (r9p101) - Far too early for a guy who still has yet to throw an entire major league season and is coming off injuries. Raw talent shouldn't get you much higher than the 12th round, where Liriano was generally taken last year. Verdict: Far too much risk for my liking, with many better options still available.
20. Rich Harden (r9p102) - Even if he exactly duplicates 2008's season--including the 140 IP--his absolutely disgusting numbers make this nothing but value. We've seen the upside and man, is it sweet. Verdict: Now that we know what he can do, he is well worth the risk and should have gone at least a round and five SPs earlier than this.
Another season in the books. Good luck in football and stay tuned for updated 2009 rankings as the offseason progresses.
~Evan the Censor~
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
The Censor was privileged to participate in the first 2009 expert mock draft on Sunday night (thanks to Tony Cincotta for the invite). While there were plenty of storylines and strange picks (including some sketchy mid-round offense picks by yours truly)--and a whole lot of reaches on drafting catchers--my role here is that of the SP nerd and I will focus my attention accordingly. You've hopefully been following along as I've been ranking the top 20 SPs for 2009; here is the Who and the Where of the top 20 starters in the first real 2009 draft.
1. Johan Santana (r2p14) - Yours truly was more than happy to get the party started. Frankly I think Santana is a first-rounder but with the soft wheel, I took a power 1B in Howard and crossed my fingers to get Johan coming back. Verdict: Definitely a fair spot.
2. C.C. Sabathia (r3p30) - You can't blame anyone for loving Sabathia after what he's done in the last two months. Now that he's going to the playoffs and getting his offseason money, it might be worthwhile to be a bit leery. Verdict: Not bad, but a bit risky for my taste.
3. Jake Peavy (r3p33) - This owner was reaching all day long and this was no different--no pitcher with a single-digit win season can be taken this high, especially with Peavy's breakdown this month and no real hope of the Padres getting much better next year. Verdict: At least a full round too early.
4. Brandon Webb (r3p36) - Webb's string of poor starts late in the season probably cost him the Cy Young, but he's a horse and one of the few sure things around, so even though I have a pitcher ranked above him, Webb is a solid pick in the late third or early fourth. Verdict: Hard to disagree with.
5. Tim Lincecum (r4p38) - The Censor's second SP was taken here with much elation. If you ever have the opportunity to take the major league strikeout leader in the fourth round, it is cause to celebrate. I realize there's injury concerns with the high pitch count but not enough to discount him and his sick numbers this far. Verdict: A value pick at worst and a potential act of larceny.
6. Roy Halladay (r5p55) - A perfect spot for the 20-game winner and IP monster. Cross your fingers he keeps the strikeouts up. Verdict: Right where I would have taken him.
7. Dan Haren (r6p63) - There were so many times this season when Haren looked like a top-tier pitcher, but another late season fade probably should have pushed him a bit lower than this. If an owner really wants Haren though, this is a fair spot. Verdict: I'd rather have Hamels, but the 6th round is fair value for Haren.
8. Scott Kazmir (r6p64) - Another questionable pick by the owner who took Peavy. Kazmir's potential is maddening but until he sees the seventh inning with consistency and gets his awful pitches per batter faced number down, he is nowhere near this level. Verdict: At least five pitchers on the board who should have gone before Kazmir.
9. Cliff Lee (r6p67) - My feelings on Lee are well-known--this is exactly where I've always said he should go and exactly where I have him in my rankings. A 22-win season is probably not repeatable, but his peripherals point to another top-10 season next year--for an improved Indians team. Verdict: Well done.
10. Josh Beckett (r6p68) - I don't know if this was an autopick, or just an excitable Red Sox fan, but this is a bad pick. Josh Beckett is not a top 20 pitcher going into 2009. Verdict: Whoops.
11. Cole Hamels (r6p69) - Should have gone earlier than the four pitchers taken before him--if Hamels drops into your lap this late in a draft, the fates have smiled upon you. Even a weary Mets fan like the Censor knows that Hamels has a Cy Young or two in his near future. Verdict: Smashing value; the fourth round is justifiable for Hamels.
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka (r7p75) - The WHIP obviously needs to come down a bit but pitching for such a good team is always going to be a positive. DiceK actually had a win for every nine innings he pitched--think Jake Peavy is jealous? Verdict: Looks high at first glance, but in reality a solid pick.
13. John Lackey (r8p85) - I have dropped Lackey and his declining strikeout rate lower than this in my rankings, but don't forget he has a solid track record and pitches for a great team. With a full season of health, an uptick is a reasonably expectation. Verdict: No higher than this, and not before Billingsley, but Lackey in the 8th round is probably fair.
14. Chad Billingsley (r8p86) - I've had words about Billingsley being overrated, but this is far from overrated, and I was more than happy to make him my third SP in this spot. In reality he should have gone before the two pitchers taken before him. Verdict: At the risk of self-congratulating, I have to call this great value.
15. Felix Hernandez (r8p88) - Every time I watch him actually throw the ball, I bump him up about five slots, so it's tough to fault someone for this, but in reality he's still a spec play until he puts it together for a full season--and he pitches for the worst team in baseball. Verdict: He could have waited another round at least.
16. Roy Oswalt (r8p89) - Here's another example of trusting a track record. We all wish Oswalt could have been a bit more steady instead of a bad run, then an amazing run, but as a second starter he's a great choice. Verdict: The upside is not great but it's tough to argue with after the last two months.
17. James Shields (r8p90) - I've said many times that I think Shields and his unreal changeup are going to win a Cy Young, and that could be soon. There's a great chance he's the ace of the Rays next year. I wouldn't take him earlier than this but I will be looking for him in the late 8th or early 9th all year, and I can't wait to see him pitch in the playoffs. Verdict: Just about right, and could pay huge dividends next year.
18. Carlos Zambrano (r9p99) - A weird, weird season. The only problem here is the injury and whether the no-hitter may have really exacerbated it. But we should know that for sure by February and if all looks good, Zambrano's stuff makes him a solid top 20 pitcher. Verdict: A toss-up until we see how he holds up in the playoffs.
19. Yovani Gallardo (r9p101) - Far too early for a guy who still has yet to throw an entire major league season and is coming off injuries. Raw talent shouldn't get you much higher than the 12th round, where Liriano was generally taken last year. Verdict: Far too much risk for my liking, with many better options still available.
20. Rich Harden (r9p102) - Even if he exactly duplicates 2008's season--including the 140 IP--his absolutely disgusting numbers make this nothing but value. We've seen the upside and man, is it sweet. Verdict: Now that we know what he can do, he is well worth the risk and should have gone at least a round and five SPs earlier than this.
Another season in the books. Good luck in football and stay tuned for updated 2009 rankings as the offseason progresses.
~Evan the Censor~
posted by Evan the Censor at
Sunday, September 28, 2008
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