The True Guru's 2008 Season In Review: Part 1 "Luck and Sabermetrics"

Well, this has been one heck of a tough year for me and my radio show with other personalities. I had some problems in the industry that I did not expect or see coming, but in contrast I also made many new friends with some wonderful websites. SO overall its been a great year.



One reason I made some people in the industry upset is I don't subscribe to the same old school philosophies that have guided the industry for years. That I not only use my own formula for success, but that I also use it in full view of the fantasy baseball community with huge success. I did this through blogs, radio shows, and an expert league. Another reason they may not be happy is the fact that I tell it like it is and I don't care much for unwritten rules or agreeing just to be nice. I've said all year, if you disagree with me come on my show to defend your ideas or prove it to me in a H2H expert league.



So the whole point on this diatribe is to discuss one of two issues that were brought up on my show and blogs several times through out the year and that is the question of LUCK. This was the topic of one argument between me and a former co host of The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show. To note, my former co host's managing philosophy is build completely around sabermetrics. Now there are many managers who believe in luck, and there are even several different ways they believe in it. Those ways can be injuries, breakout or unexpected performance, scoring points at the right time, or your player playing more or less then expected, etc...

For the most part as I've said on my shows, luck exists how my former co host would say "in a vacuum". You see luck effects every team nearly every day, so chalk it up no different then RSTLN E on Wheel Of Fortune (Those are the letters chosen so often for the grand prize game that Wheel Of Fortune ended up making them automatic and allowing the contestant to pick 4 more letters.)

Luck is automatic except in cases of injury where we call it "bad luck". Its as simple as that and anyone who argues it different cannot consider themselves a champion of this game. By no means can you assume and I mean making an ASS out of YOU and ME. That's right you cannot assume that a player is lucky for whatever reason or that one player had bad luck. That a pitcher who gives up 14 more home runs then the year before is bad luck or a hitter stealing 10 more bases good luck. Its just not.

Since we already established that it's automatic for everyone then we can accept that at one point or another we all have good and bad luck.

My thoughts are simple; there are skills, strategies, pinpoint perfect moves, but there is not bad luck. There are educated guesses, match ups at the wrong time, and breakout performances that ruin your week, but no such bad luck.

The people that crow the most about "luck" are followers of the Religion of Sabermatrics (ZALTAR!). This is an amazing breakthrough as a tool used to enhance scouting in MLB, but instead it has been transformed by fantasy experts and has replaced scouting in that arena. That is just not what its meant for.

The reason they cry "luck" more than anyone is they refuse to admit that there are serious flaws in their precious calculations and that sabermetrics can and often does fail. Therefore it becomes their answer to something sabermetrics could not explain. It must be luck.


Let's see if this works in other professions:

Well, I don't know how it happened, but with some good luck I managed to give you a heart transplant.

I don't know why she died. I guess I was having bad luck cause my CPR didn't save her.

I got a "F" on my exam BAD LUCK!

OK, you all get it. Its an excuse because they can't explain what happened. The difference in statisticians, voyeurs, scouting experts, gut guys, and other experts don't have that problem nearly as often if ever. We analyze actual data or film and make expert decisions. We don't plug numbers into a formula and draft a team based on a few percentages and formulas.

So when you hear about "luck" from a sabermetrics expert know that what he is actually telling you is, "I can't explain why that happened GOOD LUCK OR BAD LUCK.

Here are some 2008 Examples that sabermetric experts would attribute luck too:

Gavin Floyd - He was lucky
Xavier Nady - He was lucky
Jose Reyes - He was unlucky
Jacoby Ellsbury - He was lucky

(Trust me there are many more)


To wrap this up, I hope I've made my point clear that using luck outside of injuries is a weak excuse and if the experts that you take advice from whip out luck as an excuse because what they said didn't happen, walk away and go towards the light of an expert who explains luck rather than use it to hide their flaws and mistakes..


I promise The True Guru doesn't believe in luck like that, just winning.


Todd "The True Guru" Farino