THE STARTING LINE - Watching the Wire
WATCHING THE WIRE
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
It's likely, with more pitchers getting shut down daily, that many of us looking to max out innings will be trolling the starting pitcher waiver wire. It's likely that if you sort by whatever ranking function your engine uses for available SPs, you'll see these five guys at or near the top. Here's the Censor's advice on whether they're worth a roster spot for the last month.
Kyle Lohse
Season: 182.0 IP, 13-6, 106 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Last 30 days: 37.1 IP, 0 W, 28 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
After a rough August, Lohse looked like he found his form again on Wednesday versus the Diamondbacks, tying a season high with seven strikeouts. His growth this season has been impressive in two areas: the decline in flyball rate (a career-low 32%) and the sharp decline in walk rate (a career low 2.18 BB/9). At the same time, although K/9 rate for the season is still below his career average, it has been steadily increasing over the last two months. The 29-year-old has the Cubs twice, Pittsburgh on the road, and Arizona at home, and although the start at Wrigley is troubling, those looking for innings and ERA help will find Lohse a wise sniper start candidate.
Jesse Litsch
Season: 143.2 IP, 10-8, 71 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Last 30 days: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 12 K, 0.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
You can't ask for a four-start streak better than Litsch's--and against four fairly scary opponents at that. However, the streak brings some concern. In all four games, Litsch threw more than 103 pitches, which he had only done twice the entire season previously. His walk rate also has crept up since his return to the majors, and he still brings no strikeouts to the table--less than 4.0 K/9 over this streak is just too scary to justify a fantasy spot. Litsch doesn't throw a pitch faster than 90 mph and doesn't have the selection ability of a Buehrle or Glavine to make that work consistently. His next three starts are Boston twice and at Chicago, so it's best to let him go and see how he does leading into the final weekend at Baltimore. He may be worth a final sniper start in that situation.
Yusmeiro Petit
Season: 52.1 IP, 3-4, 41 K, 3.44 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Last 30 days: 22.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP
Petit's last start, Tuesday against the Cardinals, made him look like a young, HR-prone pitcher who hadn't pitched for ten days, which was exactly what he was. Although his offspeed stuff can be effective at times and his control stats are very strong, his GB/FB rate is a very disconcerting 0.68 and his BABIP is a disgustingly lucky .196. His schedule, which includes a matchup with Tim Lincecum and a date with Coors Field, is not in his favor and the Diamondbacks are always prone to skip him in the rotation anyway. Don't be too eager to jump on him.
Braden Looper
Season: 174.0 IP, 12-11, 87 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Last 30 days: 39.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
There's very little to like about Looper. The strikeout rate is much too low, the complete absence of a changeup or curveball leaves his arsenal too limited, and he is already at his career high for IP in his second season as a starter. Looper has gone 7+ innings in seven of his last eight starts, but will only strike out three or four in a given start and is prone to frequent disasters. He is only worth consideration in great matchups in very deep or NL-only leagues.
Nick Blackburn
Season: 169.2 IP, 9-8, 86 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Last 30 days: 29.2 IP, 0 W, 15 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Why would I dig on Looper and then recommend Blackburn, who appears to have a very similar line? For one thing, the schedule is much more favorable for Blackburn, who gets Kansas City (potentially twice) and Baltimore. But Blackburn's variety of pitches is what has helped him avoid anything that could be considered a disaster start since June. He throws a changeup that is a full 10mph slower than his fastball, which is an elite speed gap. He doesn't walk anyone and his GB/FB rate has stayed above 1.20 all season. Blackburn isn't going to carry anyone's team and shouldn't be used if you're close to your innings max and need strikeouts, but there's no reason he should be on the wire in standard leagues.
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
It's likely, with more pitchers getting shut down daily, that many of us looking to max out innings will be trolling the starting pitcher waiver wire. It's likely that if you sort by whatever ranking function your engine uses for available SPs, you'll see these five guys at or near the top. Here's the Censor's advice on whether they're worth a roster spot for the last month.
Kyle Lohse
Season: 182.0 IP, 13-6, 106 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Last 30 days: 37.1 IP, 0 W, 28 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
After a rough August, Lohse looked like he found his form again on Wednesday versus the Diamondbacks, tying a season high with seven strikeouts. His growth this season has been impressive in two areas: the decline in flyball rate (a career-low 32%) and the sharp decline in walk rate (a career low 2.18 BB/9). At the same time, although K/9 rate for the season is still below his career average, it has been steadily increasing over the last two months. The 29-year-old has the Cubs twice, Pittsburgh on the road, and Arizona at home, and although the start at Wrigley is troubling, those looking for innings and ERA help will find Lohse a wise sniper start candidate.
Jesse Litsch
Season: 143.2 IP, 10-8, 71 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Last 30 days: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 12 K, 0.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
You can't ask for a four-start streak better than Litsch's--and against four fairly scary opponents at that. However, the streak brings some concern. In all four games, Litsch threw more than 103 pitches, which he had only done twice the entire season previously. His walk rate also has crept up since his return to the majors, and he still brings no strikeouts to the table--less than 4.0 K/9 over this streak is just too scary to justify a fantasy spot. Litsch doesn't throw a pitch faster than 90 mph and doesn't have the selection ability of a Buehrle or Glavine to make that work consistently. His next three starts are Boston twice and at Chicago, so it's best to let him go and see how he does leading into the final weekend at Baltimore. He may be worth a final sniper start in that situation.
Yusmeiro Petit
Season: 52.1 IP, 3-4, 41 K, 3.44 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Last 30 days: 22.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP
Petit's last start, Tuesday against the Cardinals, made him look like a young, HR-prone pitcher who hadn't pitched for ten days, which was exactly what he was. Although his offspeed stuff can be effective at times and his control stats are very strong, his GB/FB rate is a very disconcerting 0.68 and his BABIP is a disgustingly lucky .196. His schedule, which includes a matchup with Tim Lincecum and a date with Coors Field, is not in his favor and the Diamondbacks are always prone to skip him in the rotation anyway. Don't be too eager to jump on him.
Braden Looper
Season: 174.0 IP, 12-11, 87 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Last 30 days: 39.2 IP, 2 W, 22 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
There's very little to like about Looper. The strikeout rate is much too low, the complete absence of a changeup or curveball leaves his arsenal too limited, and he is already at his career high for IP in his second season as a starter. Looper has gone 7+ innings in seven of his last eight starts, but will only strike out three or four in a given start and is prone to frequent disasters. He is only worth consideration in great matchups in very deep or NL-only leagues.
Nick Blackburn
Season: 169.2 IP, 9-8, 86 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Last 30 days: 29.2 IP, 0 W, 15 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Why would I dig on Looper and then recommend Blackburn, who appears to have a very similar line? For one thing, the schedule is much more favorable for Blackburn, who gets Kansas City (potentially twice) and Baltimore. But Blackburn's variety of pitches is what has helped him avoid anything that could be considered a disaster start since June. He throws a changeup that is a full 10mph slower than his fastball, which is an elite speed gap. He doesn't walk anyone and his GB/FB rate has stayed above 1.20 all season. Blackburn isn't going to carry anyone's team and shouldn't be used if you're close to your innings max and need strikeouts, but there's no reason he should be on the wire in standard leagues.
posted by Evan the Censor at
Saturday, September 06, 2008
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