Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/16; The Second Half Begins

Ervin Santana had his best outing since June 5th. On Thursday, Santana threw eight great innings, allowed just one run and struck out four. His ERA for the season is still at 6.70, but I know many of you still have hope given the stats that he put up in 2008. He should improve on his first half, but I don't expect him to pitch in the second half like he did last year. With two wins on July 16th, he could get up to eight wins.

Cliff Lee teased his owners again tonight. Lee went the distance, allowed just one run, didn't walk a batter and struck out six. He really has been pitching better than his 5-9 record would indicate. His ERA is a more than respectable 3.31, even if his WHIP is a little higher than you would like at 1.36. His strikeouts are right about where they usually are (99 in 136 innings), so it is the fact that his team stinks that explains his record. If he gets hot, he could win 12 or 13 games, so if you have Lee, keep throwing him out there every five days.

Rich Harden had the kind of outing that we had become accustomed to him having in his career on Thursday. Harden threw six shutout innings, allowed just three hits and struck out seven. His record is now back to .500, but his other stats are just pedestrian. I don't think that I would seek out a trade for Harden because I just don't know what to expect going forward. My head tells me he has to improve, but my eyes tell me he has been little more than average this season.

Derrek Lee is really starting to make me nuts now. I always like to write about how over rated he is, but lately he has been on an incredible hot streak that apparently took no break during the All-Star festivities. Lee came out of the break with three hits and his 18th homer of the year. Barring injury he has a shot at 30 home runs, a total he hasn't hit since 2005. I would still look to sell high on Lee for a guy like Joey Votto, but if you want to hold on to him he looks fairly strong.

Homer Bailey was more like the Bailey that I expected. I felt like a prostitute having to say that he might be worth a roster spot a couple weeks ago, but now he is back to normal. Bailey gave up seven runs over 5.1 innings, walked four and struck out three. He isn't going to be consistent, I had a quick brain fart there. Stay away from Bailey, he just won't pan out. I know he was a top prospect, but they just all don't pan out.

Edwin Encarnacion has done better than I anticipated coming back from the DL, but I am still not a big fan. He has had one hit or more in every game but two since July 3rd, and tonight he had three hits including his second home run this month. He has driven in seven runs this month, but they all came in two games. As a bench guy to have in case of injury I like Edwin, but I would not want him in my everyday lineup.

Chad Gaudin continues to get great strikeout numbers, but being on the Padres, that limits his fantasy value. Against the Rockies on Thursday, Gaudin allowed just one earned run, and struck out eight over five innings. He is strictly a one category pitcher. His ERA is nearly 5.00, his WHIP is over 1.40 and he only has four wins, but he has 93 strikeouts in 87 innings. If you need Ks, grab Gaudin, but beware he will hurt your other pitching categories.

Jaime Moyer was awesome tonight, but don't fall into that trap. Sure, his record looks good at 9-6, but his ERA is over 5.50 and his WHIP is over 1.40. Add that together with very few strikeouts and the fact that he plays in a hitters' park, and I would not own Jaime Moyer. Unless you are in a 16-20 team league or an NL-only league, there MUST be better options.

The neverending rain here in New York threatened another softball game on Thursday, but we were able to get an official game in between the rain, thunder, and lightning. We led off the game with five runs in the first inning, which I had an RBI double right down the third base line. A nice liner that got past the third baseman. I walked the second time up, before popping out to fairly deep right as I continue to experiment with hitting to the opposite field. All in all, 1-2 with a walk, an RBI, and two runs scored. I also tagged up on a pop fly to the first baseman. It was a lazy fly that kind of had him spun around and I was pretty sure he wouldn't expect me to run. It would have been a very close play if the throw was good and the 3B was able to field the ball. Luckily he tried to catch me more than the ball and I was able to get my foot on the bag before he could corral the ball. We had a rain out game on Sunday which I will recap on Friday.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/6

I always give Derrek Lee a hard time and tell you that he sucks, so I have to report when he is on a hot streak. Lee homered for the fifth time in the last seven games, and has 14 RBI over that span. If you have him I would take this time to try to sell high on him. Even with this recent surge, I still don't have confidence that it will continue.

It was not a good night to be Johnny Cueto. Hell, it wasn't a good night to be any Cincinnati pitcher. Cueto allowed NINE earned runs over just two-thirds of an inning, walked three and struck out only one. Even with this horrible outing, Cueto's ERA is still only 3.45, so I don't see any reason to panic over this one incredibly bad start. Cueto is a young, up and coming stud. I know this outing hurts your ERA for the week, but don't put too much stock into it.

John Smoltz struggled again for the Red Sox, making it two of his three starts that he has been below average. He is now 0-2 after allowing five runs over six innings and struck out just three. I don't know how much is reasonable to expect from Smoltz, but he should be better than this. He won't be a savior to your pitching staff, but should at least be worth holding on your roster.

Brett Anderson had the best start of his young career, as he hurled his first major league shutout against the Boston Red Sox. Anderson came into the season as the number one prospect for the Oakland A's, but has gone through many of the same struggles that most young pitchers do. He has done a good job of keeping his walks under control, but he hasn't gone very deep into games and he has been allowing too many runs. However, he does have a ton of talent and should get better as time goes on. He is certainly a guy to hold on to in keeper leagues, so try to be patient.

Armando Galarraga had his best start since April, and perhaps he is starting to turn things around some. Galarraga allowed just one run for the second consecutive outing, but this time he didn't walk the entire ballpark. He was a pretty good pitcher coming into the season, and we all expected better than this. Don't go picking up Galarraga just yet, but certainly watch his next start. One more good turn and he could be worth picking up again.

Ricky Romero shocks me more with each outing. I have been telling you for a while now that you should have him while he is hot, but to just wait for the collapse to come. Well, it hasn't shown up yet. Romero beat the Yankees on Monday by allowing three runs over six innings and striking out five. It wasn't a great outing as he also walked three, but it was enough for him to collect his seventh win of the year against just three defeats. I stand by my philosophy from months ago. Continue to pitch Romero, but a regression is coming......I'm pretty sure anyway.

Randy Wells is the NL carbon copy of Romero. He is pitching well and you should continue to ride him while he is hot, but I see a regression in his numbers. Wells is a good strikeout pitcher, but his minor league ERA was always in the 4.00s. The funny thing is in the majors he has gotten fewer strikeouts, but his ERA is much better (2.48 after today). Perhaps he made some adjustments when coming to the majors, but I still say that he can not keep this pace up.

Alfredo Aceves is the front runner to take the rotation spot for Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees. Aceves has been pitching well out of the bullpen this year with a 5-1 record and a 2.25 ERA. He was always a starter in the minors, so this isn't totally unexpected. He pitched well at AA, but struggled at AAA and gets just under a strikeout an inning. Aceves will likely be on a pitch count in his first couple starts, so they might not be that great. He is not someone that I would add before his first start, but I would monitor how he does. Aceves was supposed to be a good starter, so if he is successful he could be worth having in the near future.

Jason Marquis is now 11-5 after another eight shutout inning effort. This can not be happening. Marquis is not this good and should come back to Earth whenever the spaceship brings the real Jason Marquis back from wherever they brought him. His lifetime ERA is 4.50, and I'm sure it will be around there again this season. Definitely a sell high candidate.

Jarrod Washburn continues to pitch so much better than he should be as he threw a shutout tonight against the Orioles. His record might be 5-6, but his ERA is only 3.08. I assure you that it can not last, if you look at Washburn's career, his ERA has been well into the 4.00 range in the last three seasons, and there's no reason that 2009 won't be the fourth.

Last thing of the night, there will be another Fantasy Roundtable with Steve Gardner and myself at the usatoday.com. I have talked about his Fantasy Windup blog for a couple months now and hopefully you all have checked it out. The latest Fantasy Roundtable will be this Tuesday at 12pm EST just like last week and likely last between 60 to 90 minutes. For those of you unfamiliar, this is different from a regular chat. Instead of throwing your questions into a hopper and hope the host answers them, this is a chat room type discussion where questions are asked and answered in real time. Join me and Steve and get your questions answered. It will be on the final exam, so I hope to see you all there. I know Jennifer and Martha were both there last week, so if you can leave a comment if you found it valuable that would be appreciated. Here is a link to last week's chat.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.