I am participating in a tout wars style auction league run by Fantasy Baseball Trade Market. This league has writers from multiple sites competing in it and I am going to make sure to keep everyone involved as I go through this season.
First thing, for those who don't know the tout wars scoring system here it is.
Standard rotisserie scoring with your basic 5X5 categories runs, RBI, steals, HR, AVG, wins, saves, K's, WHIP, and ERA. we had 260 dollars for the draft and will have a 100 dollar free agent budget to fill out a 28 man roster. starting roster is 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UTL, and 9 P.
Well, the draft was interesting it took 4 hours to complete and it was obvious early that bidding was a little high. My goal originally was to land at least one of the big boppers Hanley or Pujols but this plan quickly dissolved.
Once my plan had crumbled I changed direction and decided to spend the big bucks on Lincecum $38 and Halladay $37 which should give me a nice edge in the pitching categories. I now needed to try and piece together an offense with duck tape and sticks, which sucked but I was pleased with the results.
My roster:
Bay state scout (PFB)
C. Chris iannetta $3
C. Jorge Posada $4
1B. Billy Butler $20
2B. Scott Sizemore $3
3B. Aramis Ramirez $15
SS. Derek Jeter $21
CI. Carlos Pena $14
MI. Elvis Andrus $10
Of. Jacoby Ellsbury $27
Of. Alex Rios $15
Of. Matt Laporta $6
Of. Chris Coghlan $6
Of. Raul Ibanez $10
UTL. Hedeki Matsui $1
P. Tim Lincecum $38
P. Roy Halladay $37
P. James Shields $6
P. Carlos Zambrano $3
P. Roy Oswalt $2
P. Jeff Nieman $1
P. Ervin Santana $1
P. Matt Capps $1
P. Jose Valverde $8
BN. Conor Jackson $1
BN. Nick Johnson $4
BN. Kelly Johnson $1
BN. CJ Wilson $1
BN. Joel Pinero $1
Overall I am pretty balanced on offense with high average guys Jeter and Ramirez and 20 home run caliber players Butler and Rios nice sprinkle of speed with Andrus and Ellsbury leading the way. My weaknesses are most definitely saves and I would say RBI but I think I should be very competitive with this team as is. If I am able to pull off a couple solid deals I think I could win this thing but only time will tell.
I will update what is going on for me as I represent the PFB in this league. I will do a weekly article to fill everyone in on my free agent moves and possible trades and keep you all informed of my position in the standings.
I completed my final draft of the season tonight in RotoCommunity's MIC wars league. It is comprised of podcast and radio show hosts, hence "MIC". There were several top experts that I had to battle including Ray Flowers, Mike Kuchera, Johnny Archive, and David Gawron. I've already contended that I'm a great drafter, but running the team in-season is my weakness. I have to say that I've had good drafts, and then there are great drafts. This draft was a great one for me.
I had the #1 overall pick, which meant I'd get Albert Pujols and then have to wait 22 picks before I'd go again. Since I wasn't familiar with the drafting style or knowledge base of several of the managers in the league I used the first two rounds to guage what my strategy would be. I figured out real quick that there were a couple of H2H novices in the group and that allowed quality players to fall to the rest of us all night. I had a great first half of the 30 round draft, but the second half saw me lose several key players I wanted. In the end, I still had the most dominating head-to-head team in the league.
Just note the following:
It's a H2H league draft, not 5x5 roto.
I had a wheel pick.
ADP's noted below are 5x5 Roto ADPs and not H2H.
I bolded the picks that I thought were the best and colored RED the steals.
(1) FB Tonight - Albert Pujols 1B - ADP 1 (24) FB Tonight - Grady Sizemore CF - ADP 29 (25) FB Tonight - Mark Reynolds 3B - ADP 17 (48) FB Tonight - Kendry Morales 1B - ADP 51 (49) FB Tonight - Jonathan Broxton RP - ADP 64 (72) FB Tonight - Aaron Hill 2B - ADP 52
(73) FB Tonight - Yovani Gallardo SP - ADP 87
(96) FB Tonight - Alex Rios CF - ADP 119 (97) FB Tonight - Cliff Lee SP - ADP 57 (120) FB Tonight - Jason Bartlett SS - ADP 105
(121) FB Tonight - Jason Heyward RF - ADP 211
(144) FB Tonight - Huston Street RP - ADP 153 (145) FB Tonight - Rafael Soriano RP - ADP 151 (168) FB Tonight - Jorge De La Rosa SP - ADP 187
(169) FB Tonight - Brian Matusz SP - ADP 290 (192) FB Tonight - Yadier Molina C - ADP 203 (193) FB Tonight - Garrett Jones 1B - ADP 197 (216) FB Tonight - Marco Scutaro SS - ADP 191 (217) FB Tonight - Jason Frasor RP - ADP 284
(240) FB Tonight - Cameron Maybin CF - ADP 244
(241) FB Tonight - John Baker C - ADP 257
(264) FB Tonight - Jon Rauch RP - ADP 294 (265) FB Tonight - Jeff Niemann SP - ADP 215
(288) FB Tonight - David Freese 3B - ADP N/A (289) FB Tonight - Brett Gardner CF - ADP 300
(312) FB Tonight - Matt Guerrier RP - ADP 302 (313) FB Tonight - Michael Brantley CF - ADP N/A
(336) FB Tonight - Cliff Pennington SS - ADP N/A
(337) FB Tonight - Chris Dickerson LF - ADP N/A (360) FB Tonight - Fernando Rodney RP- ADP 219
Let me know what you think.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
On Saturday I had the privilege of drafting in Bob Sikon's 2010 Fantasy
Baseball Trade Market Premiere League. There were many talented minds drafting
as well and it was a challenge the whole way through. I had the fourth overall
pick and I was sandwiched in-between Rob Reed and Bob Sikon, so I spend the
draft in Mexican stare downs with those two.
My strength has always been drafting as far as my leagues go. I prepare a ton
for the draft and I make sure that my strategies are in line with the managers
I'm drafting against. I always commit to my pre-draft rules and I change
strategies on the fly whenever I needed. I think that allows mw to always come
out of the draft with a strong team. Of course, drafting is only about 60% of
your fantasy baseball experience with actually running the team, making pick
ups, and pulling off monster trades that will eventually make a champion.
Here is the draft recap:
Rounds 1-4
I couldn't be happier with my first four picks. I was hoping to get
Ryan Braun (1-4) in the first and he fell to me. Rob Reed claims his
computer froze, but be happy with AROD. After Getting Braun I
didn't pick till late in the second round. There was only two guys I were
interested in at that pick, Grady Sizemore or Mark
Reynolds. For my second pick I decided to go with last year's sixth
overall pick, a healthy Grady Sizemore (2-9) with the hope that Mark Reynolds would remain six picks later. Getting setup with
two outfielders early is outstanding, but I next needed one of the corners
covered and I got my wish with Mark Reynolds (3-4) in the third
round. I didn't think he'd get past Rob Reed, but I got lucky. I followed up
that pick with my third outfielder B.J. Upton (4-9). I wasn't
happy having to take three outfielders in the first four rounds, but I got four
guys I wanted and I can't complain about that. I did want Jonathan
Broxton here, breaking a rule of mine, but he was gone early in the
round. 2010 Projections: 125 Hrs, 110 SBs, .269 Avg
Rounds 5-8
Round five was my last round before taking pitchers and I secured a strong MI
with drafting Aaron Hill (5-4). He was a top sleeper of my
last year and getting him in the fifth round was a steal in my book. I then
changed my strategy on the fly and took an unprecedented 4 straight pitchers
starting with Adam Wainwright (6-9). I'm not the biggest fan
of Wainwright, but there is no denying his skill and his value in the sixth
round. I wanted Tommy Hanson in the 6th, but passed on him
ONLY to get him in the seventh round. I live my an age old rule, fi you are
trying to decide between two players and the one you didn't choose falls to the
next round, take him. Tommy Hanson (7-4) will be a Cy Young
candidate and have a huge season for the Braves. When my pick came in the late
eighth round I was shocked to still see Cliff Lee sitting out
there. His abdominal strain has people worried, but it's not a serious injury.
SO instead of getting a shortstop or closer, I took my third straight starter in Cliff Lee (8-9). When healthy, that three man rotation could
be one of the best in fantasy baseball. 2010 Projections: 28 Hrs, 6 SBs, .287 Avg. 54 Wins, 570 Ks, .298 ERA.
Rounds 9-12
I couldn't go any longer without a closer, so in round nine I drafted A's
closer Andrew Bailey (9-4). His arm concerns are not a worry
and he will be ready to start the season and give me a strong K/9 rate. I did
lose one of my favorites in Carlos Gonzalez to get Bailey. I
got back to offense with strong support for batting average with outfielder Chris Coghlan (10-9). He will leadoff for the Marlins and
should score plenty, have a .300+ batting average, and add in a few home runs
and steals. After Coghlan, I went right back to my bullpen and took a player
that I think will be a top three closer in 2010, Rafael Soriano (11-4).
He is healthy and brings one of the better K/9 rates amongst closers. He is a
poor man's Jonathan Broxton and I got him seven rounds later.
The Rays wear out their bullpen, so Rafael Soriano will see
plenty of action. In round 12 I felt compelled to complete my bullpen and
drafted stud closer Huston Street (12-9). He was one of the
best values on the board and after losing out on shortstops there was nothing
else I wanted. I did plan on grabbing Franklin Morales later in the draft. So
that makes 6/7 picks with pitchers. I've never done that, but my
excellent early offensive picks allowed me to make such picks. I won't be the
guy putting up LOST/REWARD signs for closers all season.
2010 Projections: 12 Hrs, 11 SB, .305 Avg. 124 Saves, 278 Ks.
Rounds 13-16
I got back to my offense roots with big-tie support players in these rounds.
Round 13 I selected my shortstop Marco Scutaro (13-4). He
wasn't my first choice for shortstop, but he should have a strong season hitting
in Fenway and provides average, runs, and stolen bases to my teams. Round 14 I
selected one of my breakout players and my CI James Loney (14-9). At
27, I'm expecting a big season from Loney. Round 15 I invested in my first
catcher, Miguel Montero (15-4). It's the earliest I've taken a
catcher, but I wanted at least one strong catcher that wouldn't be an average
killer. In round 16 I took one of my favorite sleeper picks in Garrett
Jones (16-9). He isn't a typical sleeper, but a guy his upside
shouldn't be going this late. He qualifies at 1B/OF and brings power, some
speed, and average to the table. Overall I really made up on average in these
rounds. 2010 Projections: 80 Hrs, 35 SBs, .294 Avg.
Rounds 17-20
I used these rounds primarly to bolster my pitching staff, but I opened round
17 with a key pick in outfielder Chris Young (17-4) from the
Diamondbacks. He had a solid second half last season and I have to hop he
continues on that pace for 2010. I followed that up with another starting
pitcher in Jeff Niemann (18-9), who has looked outstanding this
spring and will be the 4th starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays. The next
two picks were spent on my bullpen with Matt Guerrier (19-4)
and Franklin Morales (20-9). Guerrier will likely be the
closer for the Twins this year and Morales is my backup for Huston
Street. Franklin Morales is expected to close until
Street comes back in late April.
2010 Projections: 19 Hrs, 15 SBs, .255 Avg. 14 Wins, 250 Ks 25 Saves.
Rounds 21-24
This group of picks were all offense. In round 21 I grabbed one of my
biggest sleepers in 2010, Cameron Maybin (21-4). He will start
for the Marlins and has 20/20 potential if he can stay healthy. In round 22 I
when for a middle infielder and one I like allot, Clint Barmes (22-9).
He will start at second base in the Rockies potent offense and the savvy veteran
should produce well in my MI slot. My next pick was another outstanding sleeper
pick in Austin Jackson (23-4). Jackson is taking over the
leadoff spot and centerfield for Curtis Granderson for the Detroit Tigers and I
expect big things from this rookie. In round 24, I grabbed my second and final
catcher John Baker (24-9) a.k.a. Seven-Mary-Three. Baker is a above average
offensive catcher hitting in the Marlins strong lineup.
2010 Projections: 42 Hrs, 57 SBs, 275 Avg.
Remaining Picks:
25-4 - Cliff Pennington - Solid hitting sophomore shortstop for the Oakland
A's. I expect decent production from him with 10-15 SBs and 7-9 home runs.
26-9 - Gaby Sanchez - He's been on fire this spring and with nothing to prove
in the minors, Sanchez should has the starting slot all sewn up. Sanchez can
produce high average and some pop.
27-4 - Erik Bedard - When he's healthy, he is a great pitcher. I'll stash
him on the DL and pick up another starter, but Bedard could be a great pick if
he can remain healthy. It's a BIG IF.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our
weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us
LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
With less than a week to go before draft day in the Gateway Fantasy League, for the first time in a long time I am having trouble focusing on my last minute details. After playing fantasy baseball for twenty five years, I know how important "tech week" is when preparing for the big day. NOTE: Tech Week is a theater term that refers to the week before the show. Kudos to my wife, Laura and daughter Abigail, for enlightening me with that term. Draft day is still awesome and I cannot wait to see all the league owners but it sure seems like their is alot more going on this year. Let's take a look.
NCAA TOURNAMENT comes around the same time every year but has this tournament been great or what! My bracket is busted, thanks Roc Chalk Jayhawk, but I don't care. The games are great, the Cinderellas continue to grab at the slipper, and the level of competitive basketball seems to be at an all time high. How can I focus on Tiering out my middle relievers when Xavier and Texas A&M are dueling it out in OT!
THE MASTERS I can't concentrate until I know that Tiger Woods can regain the trust of all that endorsement money and the networks woes of making golf relevant without his presense. Poor Tiger, he has only made a gazillion dollars, has a hot wife, and is the best golfer on the planet. I am torn between preparation and writing unhealthy blogs on my "Tiger is god" fan blog.
HEALTH CARE REFORM The poor Democrats have control of the House, Senate, White House, and Press and STILL can't pass health care reform and more importantly, can't even get the message out about the really good points of the bill. Say what you want about Dick Cheney and Karl Rove (and we can) but they would have had this done and spun long ago. Sounds like my catcher quandry on Tier Four.
THE PALM COMMERICAL Hey, the gal in the red dress walking down the street playing with her phone is distracting! I'm just saying.
"EXPERT" PREDICTIONS I have read alot of information but at this point, I have to make a decision. These pundants will be talking me out of Hanley Ramirez at number two if I listen too much longer.
SPRING TRAINING STATS They may be the most misleading stat in fantasy baseball. It happens every year, my linchpin pitcher gets rocks in the Cactus League and panic strikes my draft board. It makes no difference how many years I see, I still get distracted by it.
THIS PARENTING AND MARRIAGE THING Now that my kids are older and my wife more tolerant, they know that tech week is a big week for me but that doesn't stop, plays, basketball practice, laundry, dinner, and the daily grind. One guy in our league always takes this week off so he can have time to himself. I think I may take a day off myself for that reason.
THE PETER, PAUL AND MARY GUY singing about his colon in that commercial. Now that is not distracting but it sure is uncomfortable. I have this vision of Puff the Magic Dragon having a colonoscopy...disturbing!
EARTHQUAKES Between Chile and Haiti, the volcanic eruption in Iceland, and my recent viewing of 2012, I am wondering if we will make it through the 2010 season alive!
FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS I am in the middle of a dynasty league slow draft that has 36 rounds. By Round 28 you are trying to not be the guy that drafts anyone cut, deceased, or retired.
More than anything, I am ready for the season to begin. With a little over fourteen days until the first pitch, I want to see if my sleepers blossom, my keepers produce, and my DNDs (Do Not Drafts) are validated.
Best of luck in your 2010 season.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com
SP Luke Hochevar,Royals, - Luke Hochevar's professional career has indeed gotten off to a tumultuous start, not unlike the chaotic process that brought him into the big leagues in the first place. Originally drafted by the Dodgers in 2002, Hochevar declined this option to pitch for the University of Tennessee instead. He went on to have a very successful college career, culminating in 2005 with a 15-3 record, an ERA of 2.26, Whip of 1.13 and 154 strikeouts in 139 innings. He was then selected by the Dodgers once again in the 2005 amateur draft, but couldn't reach an agreement. Finally, in 2006, the Royals made him the #1 selection and he began his professional career at the age of 22. Now 26, Hochevar has turned into somewhat of an enigma, with an accumulated 5.88 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over three major league seasons. Also surprising is how his K per rate has fallen from over 8 during his minor league seasons, to 5.8 at the major-league level. Hochevar has pretty good stuff, with a fastball that can reach the mid-90's, a hard slider and a good curve. On the basis of upside potential, he's worth a flier in the final rounds of fantasy drafts this year.
OF/2B Chris Coghlan,Marlins, - After getting the call in early May 2009 it took a little while for the 24 year-old Chris Coghlan to make an impression for the Marlins. He had a rough May, batting an anemic .212 in that month. By the All-Star break, he was hitting just .245, with 2 HRs and 4 SBs, and many fantasy teams had given up hope at that point. For those with patience, Coghlan went on to show significant improvement after the break, proceeding to hit .372, with 7 HRs and adding another 4 SBs in the second half of the 2009 season. He earned the NL rookie of the year award for his efforts, and now enters the 2010 season as the starting left-fielder for Florida. Coghlan's minor league history suggests that we probably shouldn't expect much improvement over his 2009 BA and HR numbers, but he does seem to have untapped 20 SB potential that failed to emerge last year. With his ADP still hovering around the 18th round area, Coghlan makes a solid player to add as your 4th or 5th fantasy outfielder in 2010.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
New year, same argument. What is Joba Chamberlain? Is he a relief pitcher/future closer or a starter? This debate continues to rage in New York state (my current home) and around baseball.
The arguments for both sides are simple:
He's a reliever - His body of work as a reliever is stellar. He has shown to be one of the best setup men in baseball and should take over when Mo finally retires. His body of work as a starter is average, not bad, but not great. (Not that it matters, but I agree with this argument)
He's a starter - Why take a guy with this much talent and limit him to one inning? Relief pitchers are easier to come by then starters. He may not be the ace of the Yankees, but he doesn't have to be. He's a solid starter and with potential to get much better.
Regardless of how you or I feel, the problem is that this issue is not resolved, not even close. With Phil Hughes and Chad Gaudin still pitching for the Yanks, the question will linger for most of spring training, if not beyond. Your draft is probably coming up soon, and no one knows for sure what we are going to get with Joba - a starting pitcher for one of the best teams in baseball, or a reliever. Depending on your league, one of those could be good while the other a waste.
I say leave this headache for someone else. I'm not against gambling with picks, but this gamble doesn't make sense to me. Unless he is available very late, and you have a deep bench, avoid him. If he becomes a reliever (oh by the way, his first spring start was awful), he will have little value in most leagues. If he becomes a starter (best case scenario for fantasy) he has shown himself to be average. By average I mean, sporadic. He has had great outings (which is the potential that people keep talking about) but he has also had terrible outings. Put the good with the bad, and you get average. Why gamble on a pick to get an average player?
Again, unless he is there very late, avoid him. There are plenty of pitchers with upside that will start this year that should be picked instead of Joba.
Joba the 'What'? How about Joba the 'Not on Your Team'!
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com
SP James Shields,Rays, - A very consistent fantasy option during the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Tampa Bay's James Shields fell victim to an uncharacteristically substandard second half in 2009, ending the year with a disappointing 4.14 ERA, and only 11 wins. While he started the 2009 season looking like the reliable pitcher we had become accustomed to, with 6 wins a 3.42 ERA and a Whip of 1.26 through the All-Star break, his 2nd half ERA 5.16 was an unpleasant surprise for fantasy owners. As a consequence, his fantasy value has taken a significant hit in 2010, with his ADP dropping from the 7th round in 2009 to about the 11th round in most recent 2010 drafts. Shields is never going to overwhelm hitters with his 90 MPH fastball, but it's his skill in combining this pitch with his excellent 80 MPH change-up and impressive control that makes him effective. Slated to be the Rays opening day starter, Shields seems undervalued and is a likely rebound candidate to target in fantasy drafts this year.
OF/1B Garrett Jones,Pirates, - Before his breakout season last year, 28 year old Garrett Jones seemed destined to languish as a career minor leaguer. Originally drafted by the Braves in 1999, Jones was shipped off to the Twins organization a few years later, and didn't begin to show his power potential until 2004 when he hit 30 HRs for Minnesota's AA affiliate that year. Still, up until last year, Jones had compiled just a .258 average during his time in the minors, and doubts remained about his ability to consistently handle major league pitching. After a trade to the Pirates in 2009, Jones received his first opportunity of significant playing time when the team traded Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals. He responded with 10 HRs and a .310 BA during the month of July, and finished the season with 21 HRs and a .293 average in 314 at-bats. It remains to be seen if Jones can follow through in 2010, and his .208 BA against left-handers last year is a concern, but he should represent a decent source of mixed-league power at a 15th round price.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
A talked about prospect who hasn't put it together in the bigs yet. That sentence could be used for a lot of players. Last year, that was what could have been said (and no doubt was) for Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels. He finally lived up to the hype and became a stud in fantasy. Yes, there are better 1B then Morales, but that list got dramatically shorter. And how good was it for you who grabbed him late or off the waiver wire? This year, we have someone on the same team who could do the same thing. Brandon Wood.
Brandon Wood has been the future SS or 3B for the Angels for what feels like many years now. Well, the future is now, barring injury or a terrible spring, he will be the starting 3B this year. Third base, like first base, is a position that demands attention in fantasy sports. These are positions that teams count on for production. So any starting player at these positions, even unknowns, should be watched closely. Wood, however, is not a complete unknown.
Wood's minor league stats shows great talent, with a good AVG (.280+), and above average power (30 HR potential). But in his 224 big league at-bats over the last 3 years he has only managed a .192 AVG, 7 HR, and 19 RBIs - not very exciting. But his playing time was sporadic at best, not the way to get into a groove. Being an everyday player, he has the potential to start to put it together and be the guy the Angels have been looking for. Which is exactly what happened with Morales last year.
Having two guys breakout in a big way, in back to back years, is unlikely, but not impossible. Even if Wood doesn't reach his full potential, he can still have good value as a late round pick (It's worth noting that Woods has already gone deep in spring training). He's not worth overpaying for, but is worth a bench spot in moderately deep leagues. These are the type of guys that can make your fantasy year - a late pick that produces like a high one. Learn from Morales and take a chance on Wood.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Soria had a tough year statistically in 2009 due to injury and some bad luck, which is good news for managers who draft him in 2010. Soria's biggest problem was the lingering injury he had last season, yet he still he finished with 30 saves, 2.21 ERA, and a much improved K/9 rate of 1.3. His last two seasons averaged a 1.04 K/9. Expect Soria to continue to dominate with his excellent control, zippy fastball, and nasty breaking ball. He is one of the elite closers in the league and would be rated much higher if he was on a better team.
The True Guru Strategy: Most owners won't notice Soria's improved K/9 rate because he got about the same amount of strikeouts. His numbers will also drop him in the draft a tiny bit. Don't be afraid to take Soria in the ninth round. Only the Royals can hold him back at this point and even they are improving.
The final ten rounds were used to fill the final holes I had left, which were a third basemen, catcher, and starting pitching. After that I then grabbed as many prospects and breakout players I could get in positions that I needed for my bench. Some people feel this part of the draft isn't worth much, but you can get a ton out of it if you draft it correctly. Forget the Casey Blakes, Willy Bloomquists, or the Mike Lowells. They'll all be there in free agency, but some of these picks could produce outstanding results I listed the final 10 picks with my thoughts on them.
21. Casey McGehee, 2B/3B - He's been a constant late round sleeper for me in all my drafts. He qualifies at 2B and 3B and should have big production this year.
22. Matt LaPorta, OF/1B - LaPorta was a risk pick to fill the corner infielder position, and qualifies in the outfield as well. I expect a great season out of LaPorta and the Cleveland Indians.
23. Ricky Romero, SP - This was a stretch pick, but a solid 5th starter.
24. Pedro Alvarez, 3B - A definite stretch, but I can't pass on the chance that he can provide 25+ home run potential in the 24th round.
25. Brian Matusz, SP - Great young starting pitcher and a fantastic 6th pitcher.
26. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C - Finally got my second catcher in Salty. I'm expecting him to pull away with the Texas job this year and see better stats.
27. Clayton Richard, SP - He's a sleeper of mine and I had to have him.
28. David Murphy, OF - What a steal in the 28th round. He may not have a starting spot, but he will see plenty of playing time.
29. Cliff Pennington, SS - I wanted a backup shortstop on my roster, and getting the young shortstop for the A's was a low risk, high reward pick in the 29th round.
30. Michael Brantley, OF - My last pick was future stud outfielder Michael Brantely. If Brantley breaks camp with the team and he should, he could have 40+ stolen base, 100 run potential.
Conclusion
This was a great draft from round 1 to 30, and all managers came out with strong teams to start the season. The strategies I employed worked very well for me, but I'll need some help from some of my prospects. Kicking catchers and building my middle infield and outfield worked great. I'm looking at around 120 home runs and 115 SBs from my outfield alone. My middle infield is solid with Bartlett, Rollins, and Phillips, but I'm more excited to see how my corner infielders workout in Garrett Jones and Casey MeGehee.
On the pitching front, I can't complain. My starting rotation Tommy Hanson, Jon Lester, Brett Anderson, and Jorge De La Rosa is very strong with Romero, Richard, and Matusz on the bench. As always, my bullpen is dominant with 5 closers ready to run up saves on any team, any week.
In the end, the draft is only about 60% of the battle. In order to win you need to get some good free agents, absorb injuries, and get a little luck from time to time. I feel I put together a good balance of youth and veterans that should serve me well and give me the depth I'll need.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Rounds 11-15 got crazy. I still couldn't nail down any of these guys or what they'd do next. Everyone had draft pretty well and I was in a sandwich show down with RC Rizza and Jason Swist. Swist got to see allot of good pitches with Tim McLeod drafting right behind him.
11. Huston Street
12. Brett Anderson
13. Leo Nunez
14. Garrett Jones
15. Frank Francisco
I quickly decided at round eleven that I was going to pursue a dominating bullpen with outfield and middle infield taken care of. I drafted Huston Street in the eleventh round. I felt he was the best available closer left on the board and is a bonified #1 closer in my book. Round twelve was a strange round for me. I so caught up in strategy that I forgot that Carlos Gonzalez was still out there, but lost him to Johnny Archive. Then John Lackey, Brian Fuentes, and one of my favorites Bill Wagner went off the board. I decided to throw a wrench into the draft and selected Brett Anderson. I could have taken a catcher, corner infielder, or another closer, but Anderson was a player I know other managers wanted, so the wrench was tossed. It did cost me a few more catchers, but I was kicking them at this point. In the end it paid off because in the 13th round I got my third closer Leo Nunez. While it was a bit early for him, closers were flying off the board and there wasn't many left with little risk at this point. I got my first corner infielder in round 14 with Garrett Jones. He qualifies in the OF/1B and has tremendous breakout ability. I ended the first half of the draft with probably the worst pick, Frank Francisco. I would have taken Bengie Molina, but he was taken by Rhett Oldham two picks earlier.
The next five rounds were still a challenge and still required some sneaky moves and big picks.
16. David Ortiz
17. Jorge De La Rosa
18 Chris Young
19. Ryan Madson
20. John Baker
In round 16 I got into a 3-way discussion with Rhett Oldham and RC Rizza about David Ortiz, where Rizza felt Ortiz wasn't worth taking. That upset me a bit, being I love David Ortiz, so I draft the slugger in the 16th round. I feel Ortiz still has 25-30 home runs in him and 100 RBI and a good OBP. It might have been a heart homer pick, but a good one. Then I had some fun. Before the 17th pick, I asked the chat room who liked Jorge De La Rosa. Jason Swist and Bob Sikon both let me know they liked the guy and at that moment I drafted him. Not much of a victory, but a solid pick in that round. In round 18 I was targeting a corner infielder and looking at Nick Swisher and Adam LaRoche. Swist got his revenge by taking LaRoche and Ryan Lester snatched Swisher leaving me a sneak pick in Chris Young, OF from the Diamondbacks. He was another player who came on strong last year and is poised for a breakout. I then made a bold pick, by taking the Phillies closer Ryan Madson, long after Jason had drafted Brad Lidge. This was a key pick for me cause it completed my bullpen and hopefully knocked Swist back a step. He did end up drafting two more relievers, I felt to compete with my over-sized bullpen. In the 20th round I finally got my first catcher John Baker. I kicked catchers for 19 rounds and I felt I had a pretty good catcher and a very good offense.
To be continued....
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Tonight I had the privilege of drafting a fantasy baseball team with some of the top minds in the industry. In my 18 or so years of drafting in fantasy baseball leagues I was never so spun around. This draft was so I know you and lets see who blinks first that the suspense continued into the very late rounds. The 12 managers each came into the draft with different strategies and philosophies, but one thing was for sure, it would be a chess game. This wasn't your mix-mosh industry pals expert league. These guys each have proven themselves in the industry and each bring a different style to the table.
(draft order)
Chris Farino - Pro Fantasy Baseball
Matt Lutvosky - The Sporting News
Rhett Oldham - Fantasy Baseball Search
RC Rizza - Junkyard Jake
Todd Farino The Closer Report
Jason Swist - Fantasy Baseball Search
Tim McLeod - RotoRob.com
Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market
Ryan Lester - Lesters Legends
Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
Roy Fantasy Baseball Hub
Johnny Archive - Johnny Archive
When I entered the draft room, I said my "hellos" and my "good lucks" chatted with my buddies, and even called RC Rizza for draft chat. Then I promptly told everyone that was listening that I'm drafting with a completely different strategy, so what you know about me, toss it out. That was partially a bluff to get them thinking, but I wasn't going to practice what I preach. When you draft against guys that are not only experts, but people who know you well, you just have to throw a change-up.
I threw out every rule I've ever developed or used. I decided I would play the draft like a game where I had to call out "plays" or "strategies" as the draft progressed. The ride I took for the next 2 hours and 45 minutes was wild and at times a bit too tense. Maybe I'm over doing it a bit, but if you've ever drafted in a good fantasy baseball draft, then you know you had a good time, paced off two pounds, pounded a few fists, and gave five minutes silent treatments to friends who stole your picks. Ok, maybe I only do it, but we all have our traditions and reactions. This was one of the best drafts I've ever participated in.
I started the draft out with the fifth pick and two strategies, get as many 30/30, 30/20, and 20/20 guys I could, while keeping a respectable On Base Percentage(OBP). And a hold back from last year, no pitchers till the sixth round. The first five rounds were going to be used to establish a dominant offense.
1. Matt Kemp
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Jimmy Rollins
4. Curtis Granderson
5. Brandon Phillips
In those rounds I feel a took allot of risk, but with big payoff. Last year, four of these guys were taken before the 3rd round, and three were #1 draft picks. Matt Kemp, Grady Sizemore, and Curtis Granderson are all 30/30 candidate players. Kemp surged over the past two years to a top pick and Grady Sizemore was hurt most of last year. Add in that Granderson has moved to now friendly Yankee Stadium with a jet stream in right field. I did decide to Jimmy Rollins after Mark Reynolds left the board because I just didn't feel like chasing middle infield the whole draft. At this point I decided to kick catchers till way later and push corner infielders back. Doing that allowed me to focus on the rest of the team, but just a little help. I like Rollins, who came on strong last year and I feel still has some in his tank. I followed up with my fingers crossed and took Brandon Phillips, completing my 2B/SS combo. There were a few surprises that effected me. I wasn't happy seeing Jason Swist taking Broxton in the fourth round. While it was a great pick, I wasn't going to get him since I wasn't taking pitchers in the first six rounds.
In the next 5 rounds I knew I'd get plenty of pitching and continue to build on outfield and middle infield.
6. Tommy Hanson
7. Jon Lester
8. Carlos Marmol
9. Hunter Pence
10. Jason Bartlett
By this part of the draft I had gotten what type of players I wanted, but not the guys I wanted. In round six I made sure I got who I wanted in Tommy Hanson. Similar to Jason's move 2 rounds earlier, I went a round early on Hanson. When my pick came I had a tough time deciding between Hanson and Jon Lester. I decided that Hanson just wouldn't be there so I took the Cy Young candidate. To my surprise Jon Lester was still there in the seventh round, so I grabbed him as well. In two quick picks, I had one of the stronger pairs of SPs in the draft. I continued on the pitchers run by getting my first closer, Carlos Marmol and his 100+ strikeouts. Interestingly, my nemesis Jason Swist too Rafael Soriano directly before me, triggering me to take Marmol next and maybe a tad earlier then I wanted too. I could have drafted another worthy closer like Huston Street, but after I missed out on another third basemen in Michael Young I decided to go with my fourth outfielder in breakout stud Hunter Pence. In round ten I filled my MI spot with speedster shortstop Jason Bartlett. I would have liked to get another closer like Francisco Rodriguez or Josh Valverde, but they were gone and Bartlett was a good fit.
Francisco Cordero is an anomaly in my eyes. He's such a risky closer because of his history of inconsistency for big chunks of seasons. Last year was one of the best years of his career, but owners should take a step back and consider some of the liabilities of drafting Cordero as a #1 closer in 2010. Here are a few. On average, Cordero blows close to eight games per year. Last year he blew 4. His career era is 3.18, last year 2.16. Even more bad news, his K/9 rate declined significantly in 2009 and turning 35 in May isn't helping the possibility of injury or further regression. The good news is the Reds will improve a ton in 2010. Cordero will pitch 70+ innings and get 38-40 saves, but don't expect the great numbers to go along with it.
The True Guru Strategy: I don't like drafting closers like Cordero. He is too much of a wild card and just too old. His ADP has him going in the ninth round and that is too high for Cordero. There are several closers I'd take before him. He is a good value in the 11th round and no sooner.
You are probably wondering why Hunter Pence is a breakout? He had a great year numerically and passed a big fantasy milestone. Pence is another one of the players who crossed the 1500 at bat milestone and gave us a glimpse of what to expect in 2010. For the months of August/September, Pence hit 12 home runs and 29 RBIs. In September, he batted .309 with 30 hits, five of them home runs.
Hunter Pence will turn 27 at the start of the season and is in store for a breakout season. Expect his home runs, RBI, and batting average to continue an upward trend. More surprising I expect Pence to get 20 stolen bases. The Astros lineup just doesn't have the pop it use to, so expect the Astros to run more and manufacture runs. Pence did attempt 25 swipes last season.
The inconsistency that we've all seen in the past from Hunter Pence will be almost gone. Like all players, he will have his slumps, but when he's hot one of the most exciting players to watch in baseball.
The True Guru Projections: .316 BA, 28 Hrs, 98 RBI, 85 Runs, 19 SB
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com
RP David Aardsma,Mariners, Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in 2003, David Aardsma progressed rapidly to the AAA, where he was being groomed as the clubs future closer. In 2004, he saved 11 games for AAA Fresno, but struggled with his control. That same year, he made it to the Giants, but continued to have trouble pitching strikes in his limited debut. From 2005-2008, Aardsma bounced between the minor and major league teams of 4 different organizations with erratic results. After seizing the closer assignment for Seattle in 2009, the 27 year old pitcher was finally able to produce a noteworthy season, with 28 saves, an ERA of 2.52 and a WHIP of 1.164. Aardsma has decent stuff, and his pitch selection/velocity is almost identical to Boston's Jonathan Papelbon. Both pitchers mix in a splitfinger fastball and slider while primarily relying on a 94-95 MPH fastball. Aardsma's 4.3 walks per nine innings wasn't awful in 2009, but the biggest potential liability associated with him remains the possible reemergence of control problems.
1B Kendry Morales,Angels, - It's safe to say the Angels look like geniuses after replacing the uber-expensive Mark Teixeira with farmhand Kendry Morales last year. That transition could not have worked out better, as Morales finished up his first season as the Angels new first-baseman with 34 HRs, 109 RBIs and an impressive .306 BA. Before 2009, Morales had exhibited 30 HR power in the minors, but it had never translated to expected performance when he was called up major league auditions during those years. Morales obviously quieted all doubts concerning his abilities last season, and looked especially good after the All-Star break, when he hit .330 with 19 HRs compared to .284 with 15 HRs in the first half. While there are always doubts and risk inherent with young players who generate sparkling fantasy numbers seemingly out of nowhere, when you consider his second half performance along with his minor league resume, Morales looks to be a legitimate rising star.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
David Freese is one of the intriguing rookies entering the season. He has a history of power and hitting for average. He's also likely to be the starting 3B in a very good St. Louis Cardinal lineup. Freese posses the ability to hit 25 home runs and bat .300+ and that makes him a tantalizing sleeper for 2010.
Freese came up last year and in 31 at bats scored 10 hits, a home run, and 7 RBI. I think that was a small sample of what to expect from the 27 year old third basemen this year. The Cardinals know what they have and Freese isn't your typical rookie. He is fully developed and ready to enter the big leagues in his prime. There are two issues that he will have to work through this season and you have to expect it. First, he is a rookie and he will have issues adjusting to major league pitching, but those slumps should be short. The other is he has the tendency to strikeout allot. However, throughout the minors he averaged one strikeout per five at bats. That isn't bad overall, but it could be a problem for him if not watched and corrected by his coaches.
Expect Freese to make a run at rookie of the year. Consider him a slightly smaller Chris Davis, only hits better, strikeouts less, and has better hair. As long as he doesn't get into any prolonged slumps and plays the full season, Freese will hit 25 home runs and clear 80 RBIs. He has the capability to hit over .315, but will likely finish ed a sub-.300 average.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful - Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett, billionaire tycoon extraordinaire, has made fortunes living by that simple mantra. People in general seem to lack the courage to buck modern trends and go against public opinion while falling prey to “mob mentality” thinking. Well, if so-so said it is bad then it HAS to be bad. It happens every day. Look at stock market activity or current fashion trends or most importantly, fantasy baseball tendencies. Reaction – Over Action – Market Correction.
Everyone can agree that Russell Martin is not the same offensive player he was when he broke into the league. Way back in 2006 Martin made fantasy waves by hitting .282/.355/.436 with 10 HR and 10 SB in 415 AB and followed that up in his second season with a .293/.374/.469 line while narrowly missing the 20-20 mark. He regressed in 2008 and crashed head first in 2009 with sub average stats. The masses yell out Do not draft Russell Martin – there are better options. Joe Torre has ruined him - too much time behind the plate. But if you listen closely enough Warren Buffett is shuffling around. We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful – Warren Buffett
Martin may or may not ever reach his 2007 production again but that does not mean he is not being undervalued right now. Since he broke into the league in 2006, catchers have scored 60 or more runs 28 times – Martin has done it 4 of those time. Again, catchers reached double digit steals only 5 times since ‘06- Martin has done it 4 of those times. He may not hit like Joe Mauer or have the potential of Matt Wieters’ but Russell Martin still remains a viable fantasy option. According to my own projection algorithms which have been developed over the past 4-5 years, Martin should hit to the tune of .270/.376/.417 with 16 HR, 71 RBI, 59 R, 15 SB. Only 12 times since 1954 has a catcher put up double digit steals and homeruns – look for Martin to be the 13th time. Reaction – Over Reaction – Market Correction.
Some of the world’s most intelligent people can be swayed by popular opinion but its independent thinking that leads to greatness. Fantasy GMs will over react on Martin’s down year but his projected numbers are solid-above average for catchers and you should take advantage of his down year to pounce on his declining stock before there’s a market correction. If the upper echelon of catchers have already been taken…sit back and enjoy knowing that Russell Martin and his falling stock can help bring a fantasy championship to you.
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful – Warren Buffett
Check out the big 90 minute podcast tonight. I'll be covering all top 50 relief pitchers for the season and tell you who to draft and when. 90 minutes of fatasy baseball closer talk! http://www.blogtalkradio.com/the-closer-report
