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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Analysis: FBS Expert League Draft Part 1

By Todd Farino, http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/
View Draft results here

Tonight I had the privilege of drafting a fantasy baseball team with some of the top minds in the industry. In my 18 or so years of drafting in fantasy baseball leagues I was never so spun around. This draft was so I know you and lets see who blinks first that the suspense continued into the very late rounds. The 12 managers each came into the draft with different strategies and philosophies, but one thing was for sure, it would be a chess game. This wasn't your mix-mosh industry pals expert league. These guys each have proven themselves in the industry and each bring a different style to the table.
(draft order)
Chris Farino - Pro Fantasy Baseball
Matt Lutvosky - The Sporting News
Rhett Oldham - Fantasy Baseball Search
RC Rizza - Junkyard Jake
Todd Farino The Closer Report
Jason Swist - Fantasy Baseball Search
Tim McLeod - RotoRob.com
Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market
Ryan Lester - Lesters Legends
Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
Roy Fantasy Baseball Hub
Johnny Archive - Johnny Archive

When I entered the draft room, I said my "hellos" and my "good lucks" chatted with my buddies, and even called RC Rizza for draft chat. Then I promptly told everyone that was listening that I'm drafting with a completely different strategy, so what you know about me, toss it out. That was partially a bluff to get them thinking, but I wasn't going to practice what I preach. When you draft against guys that are not only experts, but people who know you well, you just have to throw a change-up.

I threw out every rule I've ever developed or used. I decided I would play the draft like a game where I had to call out "plays" or "strategies" as the draft progressed. The ride I took for the next 2 hours and 45 minutes was wild and at times a bit too tense. Maybe I'm over doing it a bit, but if you've ever drafted in a good fantasy baseball draft, then you know you had a good time, paced off two pounds, pounded a few fists, and gave five minutes silent treatments to friends who stole your picks. Ok, maybe I only do it, but we all have our traditions and reactions. This was one of the best drafts I've ever participated in.

I started the draft out with the fifth pick and two strategies, get as many 30/30, 30/20, and 20/20 guys I could, while keeping a respectable On Base Percentage(OBP). And a hold back from last year, no pitchers till the sixth round. The first five rounds were going to be used to establish a dominant offense.

1. Matt Kemp
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Jimmy Rollins
4. Curtis Granderson
5. Brandon Phillips

In those rounds I feel a took allot of risk, but with big payoff. Last year, four of these guys were taken before the 3rd round, and three were #1 draft picks. Matt Kemp, Grady Sizemore, and Curtis Granderson are all 30/30 candidate players. Kemp surged over the past two years to a top pick and Grady Sizemore was hurt most of last year. Add in that Granderson has moved to now friendly Yankee Stadium with a jet stream in right field. I did decide to Jimmy Rollins after Mark Reynolds left the board because I just didn't feel like chasing middle infield the whole draft. At this point I decided to kick catchers till way later and push corner infielders back. Doing that allowed me to focus on the rest of the team, but just a little help. I like Rollins, who came on strong last year and I feel still has some in his tank. I followed up with my fingers crossed and took Brandon Phillips, completing my 2B/SS combo. There were a few surprises that effected me. I wasn't happy seeing Jason Swist taking Broxton in the fourth round. While it was a great pick, I wasn't going to get him since I wasn't taking pitchers in the first six rounds.

In the next 5 rounds I knew I'd get plenty of pitching and continue to build on outfield and middle infield.

6. Tommy Hanson
7. Jon Lester
8. Carlos Marmol
9. Hunter Pence
10. Jason Bartlett

By this part of the draft I had gotten what type of players I wanted, but not the guys I wanted. In round six I made sure I got who I wanted in Tommy Hanson. Similar to Jason's move 2 rounds earlier, I went a round early on Hanson. When my pick came I had a tough time deciding between Hanson and Jon Lester. I decided that Hanson just wouldn't be there so I took the Cy Young candidate. To my surprise Jon Lester was still there in the seventh round, so I grabbed him as well. In two quick picks, I had one of the stronger pairs of SPs in the draft. I continued on the pitchers run by getting my first closer, Carlos Marmol and his 100+ strikeouts. Interestingly, my nemesis Jason Swist too Rafael Soriano directly before me, triggering me to take Marmol next and maybe a tad earlier then I wanted too. I could have drafted another worthy closer like Huston Street, but after I missed out on another third basemen in Michael Young I decided to go with my fourth outfielder in breakout stud Hunter Pence. In round ten I filled my MI spot with speedster shortstop Jason Bartlett. I would have liked to get another closer like Francisco Rodriguez or Josh Valverde, but they were gone and Bartlett was a good fit.


To be continued.....

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