Russell Martin, Warren Buffett and Fantasy Baseball
By Joe Werner (www.ThoughtsFromTheTeePee.com)
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful
- Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett, billionaire tycoon extraordinaire, has made fortunes living by that simple mantra. People in general seem to lack the courage to buck modern trends and go against public opinion while falling prey to “mob mentality” thinking. Well, if so-so said it is bad then it HAS to be bad. It happens every day. Look at stock market activity or current fashion trends or most importantly, fantasy baseball tendencies. Reaction – Over Action – Market Correction.
Everyone can agree that Russell Martin is not the same offensive player he was when he broke into the league. Way back in 2006 Martin made fantasy waves by hitting .282/.355/.436 with 10 HR and 10 SB in 415 AB and followed that up in his second season with a .293/.374/.469 line while narrowly missing the 20-20 mark. He regressed in 2008 and crashed head first in 2009 with sub average stats. The masses yell out Do not draft Russell Martin – there are better options. Joe Torre has ruined him - too much time behind the plate. But if you listen closely enough Warren Buffett is shuffling around.
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful
– Warren Buffett
Martin may or may not ever reach his 2007 production again but that does not mean he is not being undervalued right now. Since he broke into the league in 2006, catchers have scored 60 or more runs 28 times – Martin has done it 4 of those time. Again, catchers reached double digit steals only 5 times since ‘06- Martin has done it 4 of those times. He may not hit like Joe Mauer or have the potential of Matt Wieters’ but Russell Martin still remains a viable fantasy option. According to my own projection algorithms which have been developed over the past 4-5 years, Martin should hit to the tune of .270/.376/.417 with 16 HR, 71 RBI, 59 R, 15 SB. Only 12 times since 1954 has a catcher put up double digit steals and homeruns – look for Martin to be the 13th time. Reaction – Over Reaction – Market Correction.
Some of the world’s most intelligent people can be swayed by popular opinion but its independent thinking that leads to greatness. Fantasy GMs will over react on Martin’s down year but his projected numbers are solid-above average for catchers and you should take advantage of his down year to pounce on his declining stock before there’s a market correction. If the upper echelon of catchers have already been taken…sit back and enjoy knowing that Russell Martin and his falling stock can help bring a fantasy championship to you.
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful
– Warren Buffett
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful
- Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett, billionaire tycoon extraordinaire, has made fortunes living by that simple mantra. People in general seem to lack the courage to buck modern trends and go against public opinion while falling prey to “mob mentality” thinking. Well, if so-so said it is bad then it HAS to be bad. It happens every day. Look at stock market activity or current fashion trends or most importantly, fantasy baseball tendencies. Reaction – Over Action – Market Correction.
Everyone can agree that Russell Martin is not the same offensive player he was when he broke into the league. Way back in 2006 Martin made fantasy waves by hitting .282/.355/.436 with 10 HR and 10 SB in 415 AB and followed that up in his second season with a .293/.374/.469 line while narrowly missing the 20-20 mark. He regressed in 2008 and crashed head first in 2009 with sub average stats. The masses yell out Do not draft Russell Martin – there are better options. Joe Torre has ruined him - too much time behind the plate. But if you listen closely enough Warren Buffett is shuffling around.
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful
– Warren Buffett
Martin may or may not ever reach his 2007 production again but that does not mean he is not being undervalued right now. Since he broke into the league in 2006, catchers have scored 60 or more runs 28 times – Martin has done it 4 of those time. Again, catchers reached double digit steals only 5 times since ‘06- Martin has done it 4 of those times. He may not hit like Joe Mauer or have the potential of Matt Wieters’ but Russell Martin still remains a viable fantasy option. According to my own projection algorithms which have been developed over the past 4-5 years, Martin should hit to the tune of .270/.376/.417 with 16 HR, 71 RBI, 59 R, 15 SB. Only 12 times since 1954 has a catcher put up double digit steals and homeruns – look for Martin to be the 13th time. Reaction – Over Reaction – Market Correction.
Some of the world’s most intelligent people can be swayed by popular opinion but its independent thinking that leads to greatness. Fantasy GMs will over react on Martin’s down year but his projected numbers are solid-above average for catchers and you should take advantage of his down year to pounce on his declining stock before there’s a market correction. If the upper echelon of catchers have already been taken…sit back and enjoy knowing that Russell Martin and his falling stock can help bring a fantasy championship to you.
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful
– Warren Buffett
posted by MrBranchRickey at
Thursday, March 04, 2010
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