THE STARTING LINE - 2009 Top Ten SP, v1
THE STARTING LINE: 2009 Top Ten SP, v1
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
August means many things...county fairs, triple-digit temperatures, last-ditch family trips trying to stave off the return to school--and for many, the final fantasy baseball surrender. Early August is about the time you'll see messages start to fly around in keeper leagues: "Hey guys, the white flag is waved, let's talk about keeper deals for next year." If you drafted Erik Bedard and Chone Figgins expecting great things this year, you probably are ready to start doing some hard thinking about next year, and since fantasy owners are consistently obsessed with future potential anyway--what better time to take a look at one censor's preliminary rankings of next year's starting pitchers!
Note that these rankings are as of 8/1/08, determined based only on information I have to date. These are subject to change as pitchers rise and fade during the last two months of the season and will be updated every couple of weeks until the offseason.
1. Johan Santana - He is still the best of the best, the most consistent, and the healthiest. Remember that "ugly" six-game streak where Santana went 0-5 recently? His ERA during those six games: 2.48. Every other pitcher would love those numbers during a six-game winning streak. And he plays on a perennial contender.
2. Jake Peavy - The brief health scare this year always sends a chill through owners, but he has come back as good as ever. Last year he went before Santana occasionally, but the low win total on a bad Padres team knocks him down a few picks--four out of five years with a sub-3.00 ERA, and five straight years with a 9+ K/9 rate, means he is still the unquestionable #2.
3. Brandon Webb - The third leg of the Holy Trinity of starters, Webb's once-concerning low K/9 rate has increased (for the fourth year in a row) up to 7.6. He is on pace for his fifth straight 200+ IP season and guess what--his WHIP is at a career low 1.13. We may not even have seen his best years. Just like Santana and Peavy, his ranking is a no-brainer and should be universal.
4. CC Sabathia - Number four is where it starts to get a little dicey, but based on Sabathia's recent run (which may be slightly contract-fueled), he has to go here. Innings-eating machines like CC are great for the ERA and WHIP stats, because even in subpar starts they are left in there to smooth things out. His 8.72 K/9 is a career high and if he doesn't break down once he gets above 230 innings, he may lead the majors in strikeouts. Imagine what his ratio stats would look like if not for those ugly back-to-back 9 ER games back in April.
5. Tim Lincecum - And if Sabathia doesn't lead the league in strikeouts, Tiny Tim will be right behind him. There was no question about Lincecum's talent; the question was always whether his control would be good enough to keep the pitch counts low. The answer this year: a spectacular yes. Lincecum has started 22 games this year and has pitched at least six full innings every single start but one. In an era of babied young arms and Kazmir-esque pitch counts, Lincecum's stuff is so sick and so consistent, he is just one or two more years of track record away from being at the top.
6. Roy Halladay - The seven complete games are no surprise; the real treat of Halladay's renaissance season is the 7.58 K/9 rate, a seven-year high and a whopping increase over the 5.5 average of the last two seasons. The health and age are of moderate concern; Halladay will be 32 next May, will cross 2000 IP next year, and has lost major parts of three of the last eight seasons to injury. But a pitcher who throws a complete game every three starts with a 1.51 BB/9 rate will always give himself a chance to get a win--and couldn't we all use more wins. Depending on where Sabathia signs, Halladay might be the top starter in AL-only leagues.
7. Cliff Lee - There is an epidemic of skepticism about Lee's season, which is statistically the best in the majors among starting pitchers. I would challenge each and every skeptic to find statistical evidence why a decline is imminent. Lee's absurd 6.25 K/BB leads the majors (only Haren's 5.58 is close), his 0.43 HR/9 also leads the majors, and his ERA of 2.58 is second to the soon-to-crash Justin Duchscherer. So let's see: strikes out a ton, never walks anyone, and doesn't give up any home runs. Sounds like my kind of fluke.
8. Dan Haren - Haren must be really angry about Lee's great season, because it's keeping writers from using the same superlatives about him. In this case, though, skepticism is more limited since Haren is simply pitching exactly like we'd expect. His K/9 of 8.17 is a career high--and he has improved that rate every single year in his six-year career. His BB/9 of 1.46 is a career low, as is his 0.67 HR/9. His .275 BABIP implies a bit of luck involved, and he doesn't pitch in the greatest park. But if Haren does not slow down in August as he did last year, he could continue moving up.
9. Carlos Zambrano - Post-contract hangover has had no effect on Big Z, who has posted a sparkling 2.80 ERA and cut his BB/9 from a career rate above 4.0, all the way down to 2.92 this year. The K/9 rate of 6.10 is definitely on the low side but he's adjusted his style to pitch much better to contact, and he is still the ace of a really great team who eats innings the same way Sabathia and Halladay do. He is on track for 210+ IP for the sixth straight season.
10. Cole Hamels - Among young, lefty strikeout monsters, Hamels surpasses Scott Kazmir by virtue of his ability to pitch deeper into games. During an incredible nine-game streak recently, Hamels never pitched fewer than 7.0 innings while only going over 110 pitches twice. I would love to see him in a better home park but at least he has a solid offense behind him. Hamels is still only 24 and even though he pitches in the NL (where, based on this list, the vast majority of great pitchers are), he's got a Cy Young or two--or more--in his future as long as he keeps throwing his dazzling Santana-like changeup and devastating curveball.
The Next Ten
11. Rich Harden
12. Scott Kazmir
13. Chad Billingsley
14. Edinson Volquez
15. Ryan Dempster
16. John Lackey
17. Ben Sheets
18. James Shields
19. Erik Bedard
20. Felix Hernandez
Rankings will be updated every two weeks. Take heart, surrenderers--2009 is almost here!
~Evan the Censor
(please send all SP comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com - I will print them in future columns)
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
August means many things...county fairs, triple-digit temperatures, last-ditch family trips trying to stave off the return to school--and for many, the final fantasy baseball surrender. Early August is about the time you'll see messages start to fly around in keeper leagues: "Hey guys, the white flag is waved, let's talk about keeper deals for next year." If you drafted Erik Bedard and Chone Figgins expecting great things this year, you probably are ready to start doing some hard thinking about next year, and since fantasy owners are consistently obsessed with future potential anyway--what better time to take a look at one censor's preliminary rankings of next year's starting pitchers!
Note that these rankings are as of 8/1/08, determined based only on information I have to date. These are subject to change as pitchers rise and fade during the last two months of the season and will be updated every couple of weeks until the offseason.
1. Johan Santana - He is still the best of the best, the most consistent, and the healthiest. Remember that "ugly" six-game streak where Santana went 0-5 recently? His ERA during those six games: 2.48. Every other pitcher would love those numbers during a six-game winning streak. And he plays on a perennial contender.
2. Jake Peavy - The brief health scare this year always sends a chill through owners, but he has come back as good as ever. Last year he went before Santana occasionally, but the low win total on a bad Padres team knocks him down a few picks--four out of five years with a sub-3.00 ERA, and five straight years with a 9+ K/9 rate, means he is still the unquestionable #2.
3. Brandon Webb - The third leg of the Holy Trinity of starters, Webb's once-concerning low K/9 rate has increased (for the fourth year in a row) up to 7.6. He is on pace for his fifth straight 200+ IP season and guess what--his WHIP is at a career low 1.13. We may not even have seen his best years. Just like Santana and Peavy, his ranking is a no-brainer and should be universal.
4. CC Sabathia - Number four is where it starts to get a little dicey, but based on Sabathia's recent run (which may be slightly contract-fueled), he has to go here. Innings-eating machines like CC are great for the ERA and WHIP stats, because even in subpar starts they are left in there to smooth things out. His 8.72 K/9 is a career high and if he doesn't break down once he gets above 230 innings, he may lead the majors in strikeouts. Imagine what his ratio stats would look like if not for those ugly back-to-back 9 ER games back in April.
5. Tim Lincecum - And if Sabathia doesn't lead the league in strikeouts, Tiny Tim will be right behind him. There was no question about Lincecum's talent; the question was always whether his control would be good enough to keep the pitch counts low. The answer this year: a spectacular yes. Lincecum has started 22 games this year and has pitched at least six full innings every single start but one. In an era of babied young arms and Kazmir-esque pitch counts, Lincecum's stuff is so sick and so consistent, he is just one or two more years of track record away from being at the top.
6. Roy Halladay - The seven complete games are no surprise; the real treat of Halladay's renaissance season is the 7.58 K/9 rate, a seven-year high and a whopping increase over the 5.5 average of the last two seasons. The health and age are of moderate concern; Halladay will be 32 next May, will cross 2000 IP next year, and has lost major parts of three of the last eight seasons to injury. But a pitcher who throws a complete game every three starts with a 1.51 BB/9 rate will always give himself a chance to get a win--and couldn't we all use more wins. Depending on where Sabathia signs, Halladay might be the top starter in AL-only leagues.
7. Cliff Lee - There is an epidemic of skepticism about Lee's season, which is statistically the best in the majors among starting pitchers. I would challenge each and every skeptic to find statistical evidence why a decline is imminent. Lee's absurd 6.25 K/BB leads the majors (only Haren's 5.58 is close), his 0.43 HR/9 also leads the majors, and his ERA of 2.58 is second to the soon-to-crash Justin Duchscherer. So let's see: strikes out a ton, never walks anyone, and doesn't give up any home runs. Sounds like my kind of fluke.
8. Dan Haren - Haren must be really angry about Lee's great season, because it's keeping writers from using the same superlatives about him. In this case, though, skepticism is more limited since Haren is simply pitching exactly like we'd expect. His K/9 of 8.17 is a career high--and he has improved that rate every single year in his six-year career. His BB/9 of 1.46 is a career low, as is his 0.67 HR/9. His .275 BABIP implies a bit of luck involved, and he doesn't pitch in the greatest park. But if Haren does not slow down in August as he did last year, he could continue moving up.
9. Carlos Zambrano - Post-contract hangover has had no effect on Big Z, who has posted a sparkling 2.80 ERA and cut his BB/9 from a career rate above 4.0, all the way down to 2.92 this year. The K/9 rate of 6.10 is definitely on the low side but he's adjusted his style to pitch much better to contact, and he is still the ace of a really great team who eats innings the same way Sabathia and Halladay do. He is on track for 210+ IP for the sixth straight season.
10. Cole Hamels - Among young, lefty strikeout monsters, Hamels surpasses Scott Kazmir by virtue of his ability to pitch deeper into games. During an incredible nine-game streak recently, Hamels never pitched fewer than 7.0 innings while only going over 110 pitches twice. I would love to see him in a better home park but at least he has a solid offense behind him. Hamels is still only 24 and even though he pitches in the NL (where, based on this list, the vast majority of great pitchers are), he's got a Cy Young or two--or more--in his future as long as he keeps throwing his dazzling Santana-like changeup and devastating curveball.
The Next Ten
11. Rich Harden
12. Scott Kazmir
13. Chad Billingsley
14. Edinson Volquez
15. Ryan Dempster
16. John Lackey
17. Ben Sheets
18. James Shields
19. Erik Bedard
20. Felix Hernandez
Rankings will be updated every two weeks. Take heart, surrenderers--2009 is almost here!
~Evan the Censor
(please send all SP comments, questions, and vulgar flames to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com - I will print them in future columns)
Labels: 2009, rankings, starting pitchers
posted by Evan the Censor at
Sunday, August 03, 2008
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