THE STARTING LINE 8/9 - James Shields
THE STARTING LINE
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
James Shields
2008: 10-7, 24 GS, 158 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 125 K
Count me among those who think that the best way to learn more about starting pitchers is to actually watch them pitch (which can be a debateable concept in the SABR crowd). Sadly, my Central Oregon location and my unfriendly cable system means that, other than whatever bones I get thrown on national ESPN and TBS games, I'm pretty much stuck with Mariners games, which has obviously not been an oasis of starting pitching this year. Friday night, though, the scheduling gods arranged me for to watch James Shields pitch and I was reminded of why I love this kid, and his future value, so much.
Young pitchers these days usually get hype due to their radar-busting fastball, or their ill slider. Shields is a different type of pitcher--a "thinking man's pitcher" you might say. One thing I love to see is the ability to mix pitches, and Shields is one of the best. He throws roughly 15 pitches per inning and knows how to keep hitters off-balance--on average, in one of those innings he'll throw 7 fastballs, 3 cutters, a curveball, and 4 changeups. Only Cole Hamels and Edinson Volquez throw a higher percentage of changeups.
And what a changeup it is--multiple batters on Friday looked like little leaguers, lunging out as the sinking 80 mph change just died in front of them. If you thought the Mariners offense was an easy target, welcome to August, where Seattle has a major-league leading .326 BA. They got to Shields once, when Balentin took a high fastball deep into the stands in the second inning, but all night Shields kept them guessing what he was going to throw next.
The 26-year-old Shields, despite having a healthy strikeout rate of 7.1, throws an extremely efficient 3.6 pitches per batter faced and, if you subtract the Red Sox game where he was tossed in the second, he averages a tidy 100 pitches and 7.1 IP per start, numbers his teammate (and purported team ace) Scott Kazmir would love to get close to. His disasters so far this year are forgiveable -- twice at Boston, once at Anaheim, and once at Cleveland (which wasn't really a true disaster). These disasters have made his home/road splits uglier than last year, and for now he should be used cautiously on the road against great offenses, but he's also lowered his home ERA all the way down to a sick 2.21 -- the best in the major leagues among ERA-qualifying starters. Oh, and don't forget his complete lack of walks--his 5.00 K/BB is fourth in the majors.
Keep an eye on Shields next year. It's almost guaranteed that strikeout specialists with sick stuff like Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Chad Billingsley, and Joba Chamberlain will get taken before him in the draft, while Shields and his middling 90 mph fastball is overlooked. What Shields will give you is consistency, health, above-average strikeouts, low WHIP, and wins on a team that clearly is going to be a contender for a while. He is, and will be, a fantastic second starter on any fantasy team. Someday James Shields will contend for an AL Cy Young, and you should make sure he's on your fantasy team when that day comes.
~Evan the Censor
(send SP comments and questions to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com)
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
James Shields
2008: 10-7, 24 GS, 158 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 125 K
Count me among those who think that the best way to learn more about starting pitchers is to actually watch them pitch (which can be a debateable concept in the SABR crowd). Sadly, my Central Oregon location and my unfriendly cable system means that, other than whatever bones I get thrown on national ESPN and TBS games, I'm pretty much stuck with Mariners games, which has obviously not been an oasis of starting pitching this year. Friday night, though, the scheduling gods arranged me for to watch James Shields pitch and I was reminded of why I love this kid, and his future value, so much.
Young pitchers these days usually get hype due to their radar-busting fastball, or their ill slider. Shields is a different type of pitcher--a "thinking man's pitcher" you might say. One thing I love to see is the ability to mix pitches, and Shields is one of the best. He throws roughly 15 pitches per inning and knows how to keep hitters off-balance--on average, in one of those innings he'll throw 7 fastballs, 3 cutters, a curveball, and 4 changeups. Only Cole Hamels and Edinson Volquez throw a higher percentage of changeups.
And what a changeup it is--multiple batters on Friday looked like little leaguers, lunging out as the sinking 80 mph change just died in front of them. If you thought the Mariners offense was an easy target, welcome to August, where Seattle has a major-league leading .326 BA. They got to Shields once, when Balentin took a high fastball deep into the stands in the second inning, but all night Shields kept them guessing what he was going to throw next.
The 26-year-old Shields, despite having a healthy strikeout rate of 7.1, throws an extremely efficient 3.6 pitches per batter faced and, if you subtract the Red Sox game where he was tossed in the second, he averages a tidy 100 pitches and 7.1 IP per start, numbers his teammate (and purported team ace) Scott Kazmir would love to get close to. His disasters so far this year are forgiveable -- twice at Boston, once at Anaheim, and once at Cleveland (which wasn't really a true disaster). These disasters have made his home/road splits uglier than last year, and for now he should be used cautiously on the road against great offenses, but he's also lowered his home ERA all the way down to a sick 2.21 -- the best in the major leagues among ERA-qualifying starters. Oh, and don't forget his complete lack of walks--his 5.00 K/BB is fourth in the majors.
Keep an eye on Shields next year. It's almost guaranteed that strikeout specialists with sick stuff like Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Chad Billingsley, and Joba Chamberlain will get taken before him in the draft, while Shields and his middling 90 mph fastball is overlooked. What Shields will give you is consistency, health, above-average strikeouts, low WHIP, and wins on a team that clearly is going to be a contender for a while. He is, and will be, a fantastic second starter on any fantasy team. Someday James Shields will contend for an AL Cy Young, and you should make sure he's on your fantasy team when that day comes.
~Evan the Censor
(send SP comments and questions to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com)
Labels: James Shields, starting pitchers
posted by Evan the Censor at
Saturday, August 09, 2008
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