The True GURU Gets Slammed; Final Rebuttal On Closers
OK, so I've gotten hammered in the last few days by some of my expert friends in the industry who feel that closers are a one category play and should not be heavily invested in.
Even know I completely disagree with that I do understand the argument being presented. However, do represent a new breed of expert. One who not only doesn't think that the roto 5x5 is the almighty way of playing fantasy baseball, but also recognizes that thousands of leagues don't play that style either. I'm working on getting those Numbers to show just how many leagues this year weren't 5x5 roto, but I believe when dispensing advice you have to consider H2H and points leagues in the discussion. Now, my background is primarily H2H, but my theory still stands on roto 5x5.
The point I was desperately trying to get across was that when you are drafting, you have to draft according to several factors like rules, what other teams are doing, and your strategy. You also have to make sure you have a balanced team. Now, consider the option that you wait on a closer till the 14th round and you got low tier closer. OK, sure there is a possibility that he would be a great player, but there is also the chance he can stink and lose his job in April (refer to Corpas). Same goes for hitters, some hitters have terrible season like Andruw Jones who was a top pick until last season. Allot of teams got screwed when they picked him. Of course, nearly no one picked Mike Lowell until the extreme later rounds and he exploded.
The point is pick your team where you feel its best. If you want to gaurantee a strong bullpen get Papelbon, KROD, etc.. If you want to take a chance and get more offense, do that. I just don't think your draft philosophy going into the draft should be one of tight set rules like no closers till later.
You may not get enough closers! Finally, they are simply not 1 category players. Even in a roto 5x5 league categories are very tight at the end of the year. What if (the dreaded what if) you were in 8th place in strikeouts nd needed 45 more strikeouts to get to 5th places getting you 3 more points. Your closers are Brain Wilson, George Sherill, and Gagne.
Now imagine your closers are Papelbon, Putz, and Valverde. You get the 50 more strikeouts, and three more roto points and now you are winning the league. I can do the same thing with wins, WHIP, and ERA.
Closers are not one category pitchers.
Even know I completely disagree with that I do understand the argument being presented. However, do represent a new breed of expert. One who not only doesn't think that the roto 5x5 is the almighty way of playing fantasy baseball, but also recognizes that thousands of leagues don't play that style either. I'm working on getting those Numbers to show just how many leagues this year weren't 5x5 roto, but I believe when dispensing advice you have to consider H2H and points leagues in the discussion. Now, my background is primarily H2H, but my theory still stands on roto 5x5.
The point I was desperately trying to get across was that when you are drafting, you have to draft according to several factors like rules, what other teams are doing, and your strategy. You also have to make sure you have a balanced team. Now, consider the option that you wait on a closer till the 14th round and you got low tier closer. OK, sure there is a possibility that he would be a great player, but there is also the chance he can stink and lose his job in April (refer to Corpas). Same goes for hitters, some hitters have terrible season like Andruw Jones who was a top pick until last season. Allot of teams got screwed when they picked him. Of course, nearly no one picked Mike Lowell until the extreme later rounds and he exploded.
The point is pick your team where you feel its best. If you want to gaurantee a strong bullpen get Papelbon, KROD, etc.. If you want to take a chance and get more offense, do that. I just don't think your draft philosophy going into the draft should be one of tight set rules like no closers till later.
You may not get enough closers! Finally, they are simply not 1 category players. Even in a roto 5x5 league categories are very tight at the end of the year. What if (the dreaded what if) you were in 8th place in strikeouts nd needed 45 more strikeouts to get to 5th places getting you 3 more points. Your closers are Brain Wilson, George Sherill, and Gagne.
Now imagine your closers are Papelbon, Putz, and Valverde. You get the 50 more strikeouts, and three more roto points and now you are winning the league. I can do the same thing with wins, WHIP, and ERA.
Closers are not one category pitchers.
posted by The True GURU at
Thursday, May 01, 2008
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