A Look at Some Leaders & Laggards in xFIP-ERA

As we hit early May, after completing over a month of the season, I thought it would be interesting to look at a metric I like to check out every so often: xFIP. This is a statistic provided by The Hardball Times, and is similar to DIPS ERA, using the components of HRs allowed, strikeouts, and walks to estimate what the pitcher's ERA "should" be absent luck. It's easier to calculate than DIPS and gives a reasonable estimate. However, I just described the basic FIP stat. I'm actually going to be using xFIP which normalizes the HRs allowed component to a league-average and is based on the number of HRs allowed per outfield fly. This metric now eliminates the flaw in the basic FIP formula that includes actual HRs allowed, rather than expected HRs allowed, which has been shown to be mostly luck related and regress toward 10%-11% of fly balls allowed.

The lists below aren't the exact top 10 leaders and laggards, but rather the more interesting pitchers near the top and bottom. I also only included pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings so far this year. Just to be clear, an xFIP below actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been unlucky, whereas an xFIP above actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been lucky.

Read the rest of the article to find out who made each list!