Todd-o-logue #5: Explaining a Breakout & Sleeper

A debate is now raging withing the industry as to what is the definition of a "breakout" and a "sleeper". For the astute listeners and readers you probably have realized that fantasy sports sites don't often share the same definition. While all definitions are probably similar, each site has made its own modifications to best predict and present the player as a breakout or sleeper. I have had many long discussions with my brother (Chris Farino, http://www.profantasybaseball.com/) and others in the industry concerning the definitions and to this date we only agree that we have different interpretations for breakouts and sleepers.

When I started delivering my analysis on Fantasy Baseball Search, I wanted a way to express special players who were setup, poised, or even destined for a great season. The standard terms used at the time and still are sleepers or breakouts. Like everyone else, I have my own modified definitions for the two types.

Now, for the people and other experts out there who continue to question my sanity for the choices I make at breakouts and sleepers just to justify how bad they really are? Those are the experts who don't get it because they don't even know how to spot a sleeper, let alone predict a breakout. So how can they then judge my breakouts? For the few who don't get my complicated four group system (Grains, Fruits, Vegetables, Meats or Legumes for the newbies) with my diabolical schemes, remote sensing, OnStar, folk dancing, and the dreaded long-division. That's right, RC also dances the polka while picking breakouts.

Sleeper - The sleeper is by far the most exciting player in the draft to take. He normally is picked at an exceptional value, which is the major reason he is the sleeper. The value of a sleeper is based on how good he will perform against where he is taken in he draft, its that simple. Sleepers are also players that can be relatively young and unknown or the veteran who's poised for a big unexpected season. The key for my definition of a sleeper is a player that slips in the drafts, but plays to the value of a high draft pick.

Last year some of my sleepers were Jacoby Ellsbury, Tim Lincecum, and Jon Lester. Those were three players that you could draft much later in the draft and get top value for them. This year Ellsbury is a 4th round pick, last year 12th round. Lincecum is a 2-3rd round pick this year, last year 10-11th. Even better was Lester, who wasn't even drafted in most leagues and is now being drafted as early at the 8th round. In reality, picking sleepers is like trying to find the next studs.

Breakouts are much different and the definitions vary far more. For me a breakout player is someone who is lined up for a big season based on various scouting, situational considerations, and statistics. You can consider a breakout season a career year for that player or even better, a well known player hitting his prime. Of course I like to use my breakouts to also point players who have their stars aligned for a special season. These players can already be studs like Johan Santana, but even studs are surrounded by some doubt and need that "veil of doubt" lifted from them.

Is Santana worth a #1 or #2 draft pick? Will he continue to regress? Will the team around him continue to fail him. I've taken a minor beating for calling Santana a breakout. Sure it's a little crazy, and maybe I should remove him from the list. However, I think he is in for a special season. Assuming he says healthy, I think he is due for a big year and another Cy Young award. He has 1 full year under his belt in the National League, he has a more united unselfish team, a killer closer, and a new coach opening the season. Last year he was leaned on too many times to have amazing performances and when he was ready to come out, the manager had to leave him in because of the Mets terrible bullpen. Bottom line, I want my readers and listeners to know that last year was an anomaly created by a mixture of bad situations. 2009 is different and I think he will improve his stats across the board including 21+ wins. That is why I call him a breakout.

So for the people who want to tell me that my breakouts are questionable, tell me that after I picked Sizemore as a breakout last year. Was he a questionable call in hindsight going 30/30? How about Brian McCann who had a huge breakout season hitting 30 home runs and batting .300. Even BJ Upton, who was a top pick and a breakout in my eyes. I felt he was a 30/30 player in the making last year, but a torn labrum stopped him short on the home runs, while he still doubled his stolen base totals. Again, in 2009 he is a breakout on my site. He had surgery and he is healthy for the new season. I still believe Upton is a 30/30 player and I think that if he stays healthy he will achieve that. So, when it comes to your second round pick I'm telling you to take Upton early because next season he will be a first round pick after we watch him play in 2009.

My job is to make sure I'm crystal clear in the players I think you should draft in order to win. No silly formulas or cheesy GUT picks. The way I present that "clarity" is with sleepers and breakouts. If you don't agree with my definitions that is fine, but you cannot doubt the success of my picks. You cannot argue with the fact that I'm not giving advice to smug wannabe experts with overrated college degrees who think they know better then everyone else, but to the novice player in his first season. I have to play the field because those are our customers and not all of them study baseball as closely as I do.

We all have good and bad picks. Trust me, I miss as much, if not more than I hit. Let's leave the criticizing to the season in play and make our judgements after that. In the end some go home winners and some go home losers. No matter how you define sleeper or breakout, that is all that matters.