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Thursday, April 10, 2008

CLOSERS Start Terrible in 2008. Watch For New Blood

Closers have been awful to start the 2008 season. That's not to say that they won't improve, but you have to pay attention to the sheer volume of blown saves and earned runs given up by closers. Here is a number for you to ponder. 56 for 67. That is the number of blown saves in the first 13 days of April from the top 20 closers in MLB. There is another 8 blown saves if I include Putz, Valverde, Rauch, etc... That doesn't even spell out the other problems that closers are having. Many of those blown saves are the 3-run variety. 9 of the top 20 closers actaully have an ERA over 6.00 and that includes Hoffman, Street, F. Rodriguez, Wood, and everyones favorite Joe Borowski. Now I know ERA's can get bloated early, but it will make any fantasy owner very nervous.

As each season starts and goes through it's regular cycles certain undeniable truths will emerge within the numbers. Like shortstops are hitting for power in 2007. Maybe the year develops into a great year for pitching and not so good for power. So far this season is developing bad for closers. Its something to keep an eye on because if it stays the same there very well could be allot of shake ups and allot of new or risky closers. This season opened with many new closers and most of them fantasy owners are wary of like Gagne, Soria, Sherrill, B. Wilson, CJ Wilson, Wood, Lyon, Lidge, and more. That is why I think the number of blown saves is a high so far this season, but I also think that when you have a new crop of closers and another crop of ones you are unsure of its going to take some time for them to pitch and when the dust settles see who the true closers are. If you have some of the greats like Rivera, Papelbon, Nathan, or Putz you should be OK.

On a positive note there have been some surprises outstanding performances by some inexperienced closers:
George Sherrill 4/4 saves
Joakim Soria 4/4 saves
C.J. Wilson 4/4 saves

Other notable strong starting closers in 2008
Jason Isringhausen 5/5 saves
Bobbie Jenks 4/4 saves

So if you have some good closers our recommendation is to hold onto them. You will start seeing trade offers coming in. Those are skilled managers trying to buy low when they know those closers will develop back to there game saving form. Especially in the leagues where closers are valuable you must hold onto them. Now if you have some of the more undeveloped closers whose value is high right now especially in leagues where closers are valuable we'd recommend trading them at a peak value. If you can get a great player for C.J. Wilson or Joakim Soria right now TAKE IT!. Those closers our bound to have some bad days and as the better teams improve they are also bound to see less saving opprotunities. Keep an eye on our closer report for more news on closers.

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