Speculating on 3,000 Hits
To the Generals I posed the following: What player age 25 and under has the best chance at 3,000 hits? Here are the responses:
Andrew Cleary: I am going to take a step out of my comfortable place in the statistical analysis kiddie pool, wade into the debate here, and say Jose Reyes has the best chance. Wright and Cabrera are solid choices, but over the last three years, Reyes has put up 190, 194, and 191 hits with a BABIP of .298, .320, and .302, respectively. It would seem that those sessions with Rickey Henderson really set Reyes up for a consistent career. His injuries a few years ago make me a little nervous, but what the heck. I'm sticking with my call.
Jeremy Tomasulo: I am going to stick with Miguel Cabrera as my choice, and give a couple of other options. I just look at a guy with 842 hits already and only 24 years old. I also consider him to be such a talent that will transcend some of the statistical analysis that goes with these types of discussions. This guy is one of those players that I think if you gave him a dinner knife he would go up there and bang out 150 hits a season. Detroit may sap some HR from him, but that spacious park will be generous to his batting average. Leyland is batting him fifth now, but I expect him in the 3 hole before too long.
I give you a sleeper option - Robby Cano. 509 hits so far and his totals have risen each year. I think that he is the Yankees' #3 hitter of the very near future and has one of the prettiest swings that I have seen in a long time. He is often compared to Rod Carew - and for this type of discussion, that is an apt comparison. I can see the guy winning multiple batting titles in the near future.
Final sleeper - Ryan Zimmerman - 373 hits so far and only 22 years old. I am willing to believe that with age will come a drop in strikeouts which should hopefully lead to more hits. The new DC park is supposed to be kinder to hitters, so there is hope for him, assuming that Nats hold onto him for a while.
Brian Joura:My pick is Miguel Cabrera, who does not turn 25 until April 18th of this season and who already has 842 hits. In the past four years, he’s been both healthy and productive. Cabrera has missed just 15 games the past four seasons and has averaged nearly 190 hits per year over that span.
To reach 3,000 hits, you’ve got to be both willing and able to play for a long time. Does Miguel Cabrera fit either category? I don’t know. But one thing that Cabrera does have in his favor is the bat to play another position. At least 12 of the current members of the 3,000 hit club played 500 or more games at another position. If Cabrera’s defensive woes move him off third base, he can switch to the outfield. If he eats himself out of the outfield, his bat will play at both first base and designated hitter.
The other players I seriously considered were Jose Reyes and David Wright. Reyes seems like the type who would want to play long enough to reach 3,000 hits. But he’s the same baseball age as Cabrera and is already 127 hits behind him. And will Reyes have the bat that managers want to keep in the lineup if he can no longer play in the infield? Wright seems like a much safer pick than Cabrera to age well. But it’s hard to ignore the 212-hit difference already between the two players, especially when Wright is several months older than Cabrera.
Who else should be considered? Well, 13 of the 27 players to reach 3,000 hits are outfielders while both Pete Rose and Robin Yount also spent a big chunk of their careers in the OF, too. So, we probably shouldn’t dismiss Grady Sizemore, Jeff Francoeur or even Nick Markakis, despite them being significantly behind the under 25hit leaders. I think Ryan Zimmerman is someone to watch, too.
Mike Podhorzer: I'm going to agree with Andrew here and tally another vote for Reyes. 190 hits each of his 1st 3 full years and as Andrew has smartly pointed out, he's not benefitting from a high BABIP that is questionable to hold up as he ages. He also has a good chance of staying in the lead off spot his entire career, allowing him to rack up the ABs and hits, even if he's not hitting over .300 each year. I like him over Hanley because I'm worried he might eventually become a permanent #3 hitter, losing him around 80 ABs a year. With regards to Wright and Cabrera, they are going to need to play for longer since they both hit in the heart of the lineups (missing out on more ABs), and they are both relying on very high BABIPs of over .350, so when this number eventually drops as they age and lose speed, it will be tougher to accumulate those hits.
Matt Finkelstein: I think Cabrera's a prodigious hit machine, and the most likely to attain 3000. Wright may draw too many walks to compile hits the way Miggy hacks them out there. There's another player who hasn't even peaked according to baseball HQ: Hanley Ramirez. At age 23, he has two full seasons under his belt and a contact rate of 80% in 2006 (185 hits) and 85% in 07 (212 hits), with second half growth both years. He will bat leadoff this year. With continued growth and even more at bats, could he reach 230 hits this year?
Andrew Cleary: I am going to take a step out of my comfortable place in the statistical analysis kiddie pool, wade into the debate here, and say Jose Reyes has the best chance. Wright and Cabrera are solid choices, but over the last three years, Reyes has put up 190, 194, and 191 hits with a BABIP of .298, .320, and .302, respectively. It would seem that those sessions with Rickey Henderson really set Reyes up for a consistent career. His injuries a few years ago make me a little nervous, but what the heck. I'm sticking with my call.
Jeremy Tomasulo: I am going to stick with Miguel Cabrera as my choice, and give a couple of other options. I just look at a guy with 842 hits already and only 24 years old. I also consider him to be such a talent that will transcend some of the statistical analysis that goes with these types of discussions. This guy is one of those players that I think if you gave him a dinner knife he would go up there and bang out 150 hits a season. Detroit may sap some HR from him, but that spacious park will be generous to his batting average. Leyland is batting him fifth now, but I expect him in the 3 hole before too long.
I give you a sleeper option - Robby Cano. 509 hits so far and his totals have risen each year. I think that he is the Yankees' #3 hitter of the very near future and has one of the prettiest swings that I have seen in a long time. He is often compared to Rod Carew - and for this type of discussion, that is an apt comparison. I can see the guy winning multiple batting titles in the near future.
Final sleeper - Ryan Zimmerman - 373 hits so far and only 22 years old. I am willing to believe that with age will come a drop in strikeouts which should hopefully lead to more hits. The new DC park is supposed to be kinder to hitters, so there is hope for him, assuming that Nats hold onto him for a while.
Brian Joura:My pick is Miguel Cabrera, who does not turn 25 until April 18th of this season and who already has 842 hits. In the past four years, he’s been both healthy and productive. Cabrera has missed just 15 games the past four seasons and has averaged nearly 190 hits per year over that span.
To reach 3,000 hits, you’ve got to be both willing and able to play for a long time. Does Miguel Cabrera fit either category? I don’t know. But one thing that Cabrera does have in his favor is the bat to play another position. At least 12 of the current members of the 3,000 hit club played 500 or more games at another position. If Cabrera’s defensive woes move him off third base, he can switch to the outfield. If he eats himself out of the outfield, his bat will play at both first base and designated hitter.
The other players I seriously considered were Jose Reyes and David Wright. Reyes seems like the type who would want to play long enough to reach 3,000 hits. But he’s the same baseball age as Cabrera and is already 127 hits behind him. And will Reyes have the bat that managers want to keep in the lineup if he can no longer play in the infield? Wright seems like a much safer pick than Cabrera to age well. But it’s hard to ignore the 212-hit difference already between the two players, especially when Wright is several months older than Cabrera.
Who else should be considered? Well, 13 of the 27 players to reach 3,000 hits are outfielders while both Pete Rose and Robin Yount also spent a big chunk of their careers in the OF, too. So, we probably shouldn’t dismiss Grady Sizemore, Jeff Francoeur or even Nick Markakis, despite them being significantly behind the under 25hit leaders. I think Ryan Zimmerman is someone to watch, too.
Mike Podhorzer: I'm going to agree with Andrew here and tally another vote for Reyes. 190 hits each of his 1st 3 full years and as Andrew has smartly pointed out, he's not benefitting from a high BABIP that is questionable to hold up as he ages. He also has a good chance of staying in the lead off spot his entire career, allowing him to rack up the ABs and hits, even if he's not hitting over .300 each year. I like him over Hanley because I'm worried he might eventually become a permanent #3 hitter, losing him around 80 ABs a year. With regards to Wright and Cabrera, they are going to need to play for longer since they both hit in the heart of the lineups (missing out on more ABs), and they are both relying on very high BABIPs of over .350, so when this number eventually drops as they age and lose speed, it will be tougher to accumulate those hits.
Matt Finkelstein: I think Cabrera's a prodigious hit machine, and the most likely to attain 3000. Wright may draw too many walks to compile hits the way Miggy hacks them out there. There's another player who hasn't even peaked according to baseball HQ: Hanley Ramirez. At age 23, he has two full seasons under his belt and a contact rate of 80% in 2006 (185 hits) and 85% in 07 (212 hits), with second half growth both years. He will bat leadoff this year. With continued growth and even more at bats, could he reach 230 hits this year?
posted by Patrick DiCaprio at
Monday, March 10, 2008
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