The True Guru's 2008 Season Review: Top 10 Myths of 2008
Let’s face it, 2008 was a very exciting year with a number of predictions that came true and a number that never materialized. Many of us made bold strategic and managerial predictions that simply never came about. It is important to consider the information you take in before and during spring training. At best all of us experts are giving you are best educated guesses, but none of us are Nostradamus. So choose your fantasy baseball information wisely or it could cost you the season.
Here are the top 10 myths for 2008:
1. Outfield Power Scarcity - I'd like to know who came up with this theory. When the idea was first proposed to me I considered it as realistic, but after a few days I backed off and said that it is ridiculous. Every year hitters come out of the wood works, have breakouts years, or others come off injured seasons. Here are some numbers from the 2008 season. There were 13 outfielders who hit 30 or more home runs. Only 28 players hit 30 or more homeruns. That's 46% of the over 30 crowd outfielders by trade. If you look at the number of outfielders who it 25+ homeruns the number jumps to 26/50 for a whopping 52% of the hitters. Tons more hit over 20 dingers, so the assumption can be made that outfield power scarcity was in fact a myth.
2. Albert Pujols Surgery - This was the hottest topic in spring training. Albert Pujols' ailing elbow took center stage and allot of experts seized on it so viciously that this once #1 draft pick 1st basemen dropped in average draft position to 9.5 by the start of the season. What a bargain for the 9th overall pick. We know this; Pujols never had surgery on his elbow and he played 148 games and his stats were amazing; .357 avg, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 100 runs, and 7 stolen bases. He is the likely NL MVP and we can consider his elbow surgery a myth.
3. Drafting closers in the high rounds - All season I fought this battle and continued the revolution for the closer. By most respected experts in the industry it is considered taboo to draft a closer in the early rounds like 4-7. You are crazy if you do by many people's standards. The primary school of thought is you can get saves later in the draft or free agency, so focus on hitting early. I thought that was hogwash.
You can find lots of hitting later in the draft or free agency (look up Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Nate McClouth), so the value of the hitters has the same reach. My thoughts on this mini-controversy was simple. I'd rather not draft junk like Todd Jones or Joe Borowski because they could fall into 40 saves by accident. I told my readers and listeners to get a bonifided closer early that will not only stay closer through thick and thin, but one that if he is traded he will remain a closer. My best recommendations for early picks were Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathon Papelbon, Jose Valverde, and JJ Putz. Francisco Rodriguez finished with a record 62 saves, 18 more than the next closest closer Valverde at 44. That is an amazing statistic and without a doubt worth a 4th round pick if not a 3rd round pick. However people out there still say closers are only 1 category guys. My answer to that and further proof that their draft status should be higher is they carry so much more strategic value than just one category.
In both rotisserie and H2H leagues having powerhouse closers and a supporting staff will easily get you to the top in one category giving you an easy advantage throughout the year as you battle for the other 9 categories in a H2H or rotisserie while your opponents battle for 10 categories.
Getting a top notch closer like Francisco Rodriguez is the equivalent to getting Jose Reyes. Both absolutely dominate 1 category. Both provide great support for the other 4 categories respectfully. Also, once you get past the first 4 or even 5 picks closers look very good as the offensive players start to slip. There was plenty of late offense to make up for getting a powerhouse closers.
Regardless of what is said they simply aren't just one category pitchers. In a rotisserie league where a team can compile 1200 strikeouts, operating with at least 3 closers that bring 275 K's to the match up provided the team with 23% of its strikeouts. Every strikeout counts in rotisserie. Their ERA also helps and in a league where you can throw 2000 innings, just having 3 closers provides 11% of those.
I fully admit there are closers that will get you lots of saves like Soria in the later rounds, but they are rare. However they come with risks like low strikeouts, high ERA, getting benched or traded. Those are not concerns of a Jonathon Papelbon owner.
One final note. In my Fantasy Baseball Search points league, Francisco Rodriguez had 978 points compared to the offensive leader Jose Reyes at 998.
Only 3 closers new to the full time job had 30+ saves, Sherill, Soria, and Wilson. From the top 10 drafted closers only 2 failed to get 30saves, Wagner and Putz. Both injury related. Overall, a myth.
4. Justin Verlander -I think Justin Verlander burned every expert in the world. We all thought this young man was on his way to another 100 MPH hour fantasy baseball season, but things blew up all around him and his Tiger teammates and he ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of 2008. Why? How about a record of 11-17 and an ERA 4.84 to start. Nothing really changed for Verlander except he added a changeup to the mix. He started 33 games (32 in 2007) and pitched nearly identical innings (201.2/201). Whatever happened to him injury, personal problems, just awful luck this we know; his strikeouts decreased by 11%, his walks jumped 30% and his WHIP leaped to 1.40 (24%). Justin Verlander's preseason value was certainly a myth.
5. Pitchers in the first round - No more pitchers in the 1st round. I've always been a big supporter of pitchers in the first round, while most experts do not agree. Most experts are right. Only 2 pitchers were considered in the first round, Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. Grant Santana finished the season 16-7 with 206 K's, and 2.53 ERA he just didn't carry the same value as many of his fellow players picked in the first round. Peavy was much worst, dealing with injuries and only getting 10 wins and 166 K's. He didn't even have a winning record. If the strategy of taking a 1st round pitcher was brought up to you, consider it a myth.
6. Ryan Braun - This one has some heat on it. Ryan Braun was not respected by the Sabermetric guys and many experts were afraid he'd have a sophomore slump. Well, he didn't. Besides qualifying for the outfield along with third base, Braun hit 37 home runs, and 106 RBI, and still managed to steal 14 bases. His average did suffer with 160 more at bats then last season, but many didn't expect .324. His .285 was 39 points off, but his performance and value earned him a 2nd round draft pick and a myth indeed.
7. Stolen Base Scarcity - For years there has been a philosophy that big stolen base guys are a scarcity. For several years that was true, but in 2008 it no longer held up as a relative theory and it became a myth. The key number for a stolen base guy is 20. If you can get 20 you are solid, but hopefully the player can support that with 20+ home runs. Either way chasing the elusive SB was not as hard this year with a emergence of base stealers. Guys who grabbed base stealers early in the draft paid a heavy price with other managers getting stolen bases much later and competing all year for that category. In 2008 there were 37 players with 20 or more stole bases, 16 with 30+, and dozens more with 10-20 stolen bases. With more teams like the Red Sox, Phillies, and Dodgers running allot more, stolen bases are easier to find and when drafting for them easier to get. If you decide to wait on stolen bases you will find some treasures late in the draft proving stolen bases are plentiful and the scarcity question a myth.
8. Lack Of Offense In The Later Rounds - This one is easy. It is one of the most widely accepted myths in the fantasy baseball. Almost everyone preaches drafting offense early and often. Here is a list of players you could have gotten in your drafting round 15 and beyond or free agency:
Kevin Youkilis, 29/115/.312
Ryan Ludwick 37/116/.299
Carlos Quentin 36/100/.288
Carlos Delgado 38/115/.271
Dustin Pedroia 17/83/.326
Nate McLouth 26/94/.276
Aubrey Huff 32/108/.304
Jorge Cantu 29/95/.277
Xavier Nady 25/97/.305
Joey Votto 24/84/.297
Jose Guillen 20/97/.264
Evan Longoria 27/85/.272
There are lots more like Luke Scott, Jhonny Peralta, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. All these guys provided plenty of offensive power from the lower end of the draft or free agency. Nearly every one of the players listed above ranked in the top 60 offensive players in 2008.
9. Carlos Marmol - In the start of the season all eyes turned to Carlos Marmol as the Cubs closer. The talented young 6-2 flamethrower has all the talent in the world to be a closer, but got bumped for veteran Kerry Wood. We were all over this and even drafted Kerry Wood in the expert league in the late rounds. Marmol was the consensus favorite for the job, and we admit Wood was a long shot. However are analysis came up with factors that pointed towards Wood getting the job. He can't start, he's an fan favorite, he's being paid allot of money, he's a veteran, he has closer stuff, and he has to be limited in appearances and innings. The main factor was that Pinella liked having the younger guy as the setup man, so he can throw more innings and used his crafty veteran less as a closer. Respectively Marmol through 87.1 to Wood's 66.1. Since Wood ended up with 34 saves we can call this one a myth.
10. The New York Yankee Fantasy Value - The much heralded an vaunted New York Yankees offense and pitching was a puke this season. The team has a payroll that rivals the national debt, yet produced only the 10th best team in total runs at 789 and the 15th in ERA at 4.28. At one point a few years back this team was considered a fantasy team, but now its a garage sale of junk that maybe can get turned into treasure. At the start of the season there was high value players like Derek Jeter, AROD, Chamberlain, Damon, Abreau, Cano, Posada, Hughes, Kennedy, and Wang to name a few. Here are some facts about the 2008 team to sum up this season. The team high in batting average was .303, home runs 35, and RBIs a paltry 103. Only one pitcher broke 15 wins and that was Mussina, and bright spot on a dim team with 20 wins. Some major disappointments for this team were Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jorge Posada. The Yankees didn't have the fabulous of a 2007, and 2008 showed further decline. Team batting average was down 8%, runs were down 15%, home runs down 10%, and RBI production down 22%. For the guys expecting a powerful fantasy punch from the Yankee offense you got a myth.
Todd "The True Guru" Farino
Here are the top 10 myths for 2008:
1. Outfield Power Scarcity - I'd like to know who came up with this theory. When the idea was first proposed to me I considered it as realistic, but after a few days I backed off and said that it is ridiculous. Every year hitters come out of the wood works, have breakouts years, or others come off injured seasons. Here are some numbers from the 2008 season. There were 13 outfielders who hit 30 or more home runs. Only 28 players hit 30 or more homeruns. That's 46% of the over 30 crowd outfielders by trade. If you look at the number of outfielders who it 25+ homeruns the number jumps to 26/50 for a whopping 52% of the hitters. Tons more hit over 20 dingers, so the assumption can be made that outfield power scarcity was in fact a myth.
2. Albert Pujols Surgery - This was the hottest topic in spring training. Albert Pujols' ailing elbow took center stage and allot of experts seized on it so viciously that this once #1 draft pick 1st basemen dropped in average draft position to 9.5 by the start of the season. What a bargain for the 9th overall pick. We know this; Pujols never had surgery on his elbow and he played 148 games and his stats were amazing; .357 avg, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 100 runs, and 7 stolen bases. He is the likely NL MVP and we can consider his elbow surgery a myth.
3. Drafting closers in the high rounds - All season I fought this battle and continued the revolution for the closer. By most respected experts in the industry it is considered taboo to draft a closer in the early rounds like 4-7. You are crazy if you do by many people's standards. The primary school of thought is you can get saves later in the draft or free agency, so focus on hitting early. I thought that was hogwash.
You can find lots of hitting later in the draft or free agency (look up Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Nate McClouth), so the value of the hitters has the same reach. My thoughts on this mini-controversy was simple. I'd rather not draft junk like Todd Jones or Joe Borowski because they could fall into 40 saves by accident. I told my readers and listeners to get a bonifided closer early that will not only stay closer through thick and thin, but one that if he is traded he will remain a closer. My best recommendations for early picks were Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathon Papelbon, Jose Valverde, and JJ Putz. Francisco Rodriguez finished with a record 62 saves, 18 more than the next closest closer Valverde at 44. That is an amazing statistic and without a doubt worth a 4th round pick if not a 3rd round pick. However people out there still say closers are only 1 category guys. My answer to that and further proof that their draft status should be higher is they carry so much more strategic value than just one category.
In both rotisserie and H2H leagues having powerhouse closers and a supporting staff will easily get you to the top in one category giving you an easy advantage throughout the year as you battle for the other 9 categories in a H2H or rotisserie while your opponents battle for 10 categories.
Getting a top notch closer like Francisco Rodriguez is the equivalent to getting Jose Reyes. Both absolutely dominate 1 category. Both provide great support for the other 4 categories respectfully. Also, once you get past the first 4 or even 5 picks closers look very good as the offensive players start to slip. There was plenty of late offense to make up for getting a powerhouse closers.
Regardless of what is said they simply aren't just one category pitchers. In a rotisserie league where a team can compile 1200 strikeouts, operating with at least 3 closers that bring 275 K's to the match up provided the team with 23% of its strikeouts. Every strikeout counts in rotisserie. Their ERA also helps and in a league where you can throw 2000 innings, just having 3 closers provides 11% of those.
I fully admit there are closers that will get you lots of saves like Soria in the later rounds, but they are rare. However they come with risks like low strikeouts, high ERA, getting benched or traded. Those are not concerns of a Jonathon Papelbon owner.
One final note. In my Fantasy Baseball Search points league, Francisco Rodriguez had 978 points compared to the offensive leader Jose Reyes at 998.
Only 3 closers new to the full time job had 30+ saves, Sherill, Soria, and Wilson. From the top 10 drafted closers only 2 failed to get 30saves, Wagner and Putz. Both injury related. Overall, a myth.
4. Justin Verlander -I think Justin Verlander burned every expert in the world. We all thought this young man was on his way to another 100 MPH hour fantasy baseball season, but things blew up all around him and his Tiger teammates and he ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of 2008. Why? How about a record of 11-17 and an ERA 4.84 to start. Nothing really changed for Verlander except he added a changeup to the mix. He started 33 games (32 in 2007) and pitched nearly identical innings (201.2/201). Whatever happened to him injury, personal problems, just awful luck this we know; his strikeouts decreased by 11%, his walks jumped 30% and his WHIP leaped to 1.40 (24%). Justin Verlander's preseason value was certainly a myth.
5. Pitchers in the first round - No more pitchers in the 1st round. I've always been a big supporter of pitchers in the first round, while most experts do not agree. Most experts are right. Only 2 pitchers were considered in the first round, Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. Grant Santana finished the season 16-7 with 206 K's, and 2.53 ERA he just didn't carry the same value as many of his fellow players picked in the first round. Peavy was much worst, dealing with injuries and only getting 10 wins and 166 K's. He didn't even have a winning record. If the strategy of taking a 1st round pitcher was brought up to you, consider it a myth.
6. Ryan Braun - This one has some heat on it. Ryan Braun was not respected by the Sabermetric guys and many experts were afraid he'd have a sophomore slump. Well, he didn't. Besides qualifying for the outfield along with third base, Braun hit 37 home runs, and 106 RBI, and still managed to steal 14 bases. His average did suffer with 160 more at bats then last season, but many didn't expect .324. His .285 was 39 points off, but his performance and value earned him a 2nd round draft pick and a myth indeed.
7. Stolen Base Scarcity - For years there has been a philosophy that big stolen base guys are a scarcity. For several years that was true, but in 2008 it no longer held up as a relative theory and it became a myth. The key number for a stolen base guy is 20. If you can get 20 you are solid, but hopefully the player can support that with 20+ home runs. Either way chasing the elusive SB was not as hard this year with a emergence of base stealers. Guys who grabbed base stealers early in the draft paid a heavy price with other managers getting stolen bases much later and competing all year for that category. In 2008 there were 37 players with 20 or more stole bases, 16 with 30+, and dozens more with 10-20 stolen bases. With more teams like the Red Sox, Phillies, and Dodgers running allot more, stolen bases are easier to find and when drafting for them easier to get. If you decide to wait on stolen bases you will find some treasures late in the draft proving stolen bases are plentiful and the scarcity question a myth.
8. Lack Of Offense In The Later Rounds - This one is easy. It is one of the most widely accepted myths in the fantasy baseball. Almost everyone preaches drafting offense early and often. Here is a list of players you could have gotten in your drafting round 15 and beyond or free agency:
Kevin Youkilis, 29/115/.312
Ryan Ludwick 37/116/.299
Carlos Quentin 36/100/.288
Carlos Delgado 38/115/.271
Dustin Pedroia 17/83/.326
Nate McLouth 26/94/.276
Aubrey Huff 32/108/.304
Jorge Cantu 29/95/.277
Xavier Nady 25/97/.305
Joey Votto 24/84/.297
Jose Guillen 20/97/.264
Evan Longoria 27/85/.272
There are lots more like Luke Scott, Jhonny Peralta, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. All these guys provided plenty of offensive power from the lower end of the draft or free agency. Nearly every one of the players listed above ranked in the top 60 offensive players in 2008.
9. Carlos Marmol - In the start of the season all eyes turned to Carlos Marmol as the Cubs closer. The talented young 6-2 flamethrower has all the talent in the world to be a closer, but got bumped for veteran Kerry Wood. We were all over this and even drafted Kerry Wood in the expert league in the late rounds. Marmol was the consensus favorite for the job, and we admit Wood was a long shot. However are analysis came up with factors that pointed towards Wood getting the job. He can't start, he's an fan favorite, he's being paid allot of money, he's a veteran, he has closer stuff, and he has to be limited in appearances and innings. The main factor was that Pinella liked having the younger guy as the setup man, so he can throw more innings and used his crafty veteran less as a closer. Respectively Marmol through 87.1 to Wood's 66.1. Since Wood ended up with 34 saves we can call this one a myth.
10. The New York Yankee Fantasy Value - The much heralded an vaunted New York Yankees offense and pitching was a puke this season. The team has a payroll that rivals the national debt, yet produced only the 10th best team in total runs at 789 and the 15th in ERA at 4.28. At one point a few years back this team was considered a fantasy team, but now its a garage sale of junk that maybe can get turned into treasure. At the start of the season there was high value players like Derek Jeter, AROD, Chamberlain, Damon, Abreau, Cano, Posada, Hughes, Kennedy, and Wang to name a few. Here are some facts about the 2008 team to sum up this season. The team high in batting average was .303, home runs 35, and RBIs a paltry 103. Only one pitcher broke 15 wins and that was Mussina, and bright spot on a dim team with 20 wins. Some major disappointments for this team were Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jorge Posada. The Yankees didn't have the fabulous of a 2007, and 2008 showed further decline. Team batting average was down 8%, runs were down 15%, home runs down 10%, and RBI production down 22%. For the guys expecting a powerful fantasy punch from the Yankee offense you got a myth.
Todd "The True Guru" Farino
posted by The True GURU at
Thursday, October 02, 2008
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