Mock Draft Central ADP Analysis: OF Part 2

A look at over/undervalued players at each position.

And now for Part 2 of the OF ADP analysis, this time taking a look at undervalued players and some outside the Top 250. If you missed the 1st part checking out the overvalued guys, you can read it here.

Undervalued

Nick Markakis (47th overall, 15th amongst OF)- Yeah yeah, the team sucks, the lineup sucks, no protection, they lost Tejada, blah blah blah. My response: the lineup is underrated (2 season simulations using CHONE and CAIRO projections have them scoring close to 5 runs per game), protection is BS, and really, Miguel Tejada, he of the steroid scandal and .789 '07 OPS? Now if Roberts is traded, maybe his RBIs drop by like...5, but he's still an Oriole. Anyway, .290-.300 average, power is still growing, and 18 SBs last year at a good enough 75% clip. I can't be sure the steals will stay at this level, but it sounds like the team wants to run. I'd rather have Markakis than Magglio, Manny, and Dunn all who are being drafted earlier.

Shane Victorino (98, 27)- Haven't read much on him, seems to be slipping under the radar. Not sure if owners don't believe last year or just forgot due to his injury-shortened season. He's absolutely legit as the speed has always been there. A possible 40 SBs, double-digit HRs and a won't hurt you AVG around .280 on the best NL offense? Folks, these are simply not statistics worth less than those from 27th other OFers.

Juan Pierre (106, 29)- OK, I get it. You were worried Andre Ethier would split time with Pierre, relegating him to only a half-season worth of ABs, and rendering him worthless in many smaller, mixed leagues. Lucky for fantasy owners, it doesn't seem like Joe Torre is interested in putting his best team on the field, as evidenced by Nomar likely winning the starting 3B job over the young top prospect Andy LaRoche. And it seems as if Matt Kemp, not Pierre, will be the one to lose playing time to Ethier. Honestly, how do Major League baseball managers continue to receive jobs if they can't even get the most basic of functions correct- giving your best players the most ABs! So back to Pierre, you know what he gives you in a full season. And that's worth a heck of a lot more than only the 29th most valuable OFer!

Michael Bourn (192, 44)- Will only help in Runs and SBs, of course, but if he holds down the full-time job and leads off all year, with 600 ABs he could easily steal 50-60. In his last 2 years, including the Majors and Minors, he's stolen 64 bases and only been caught 8 times!! That's a ridiculous 89% success rate for someone who steals so often. He's basically Juan Pierre but without the helpful average. Still, he should be an absolute steal as the 44th drafted OFer.

Nate McClouth (245, 56)- More of a sleeper pick really than someone who is being undervalued. Still fighting for the CF job, but does Nyjer Morgan really have a chance? Of course, these are the Pirates we're talking about. Excellent power/speed combo, could go 15/25 with full-time ABs with upside for more. Won't help in average, however, if his contact rate remains under 80% and his FB rate is anywhere near as high as last year at 53%. Of course less FBs also means less HRs, but 15 doesn't seem too optimistic. If he ends up winning the job, could be one of those picks that make you look like a genius after the season.

Outside the Top 250

Felix Pie- Another player better described as a sleeper, should win the CF job and regardless of where he ends up in the batting order (probably 8th), will provide another nice power/speed combo, like McClouth, but with a chance at a better average. It seems like he's been around forever, so I'm eager to watch what the kid could do given 500 ABs and not being jerked around.

Jason Kubel- One time top prospect ruined by injuries, he looks to have finally returned to that form. A 2nd Half OPS of .870 after only a .701 mark in the 1st Half brought him some well-deserved attention. I have no confidence that the Twins will give him as many ABs as he deserves, and he might sit against lefties, but the potential is there for 20+ HRs, a .290-.300 AVG, and maybe even 5-10 steals.

Austin Kearns- Most people have probably given up on him already, waiting for that huge break out year. But remember he's still just 27. Moving into a new ballpark and away from the death that was RFK, Kearns should see a nice boost to his HR totals and RBIs and RUNS as a result. And of course no one will really be shocked if one of these years he posts a .290-35-110 kind of year, right? We know, or at least thought, he has the talent (wasn't he supposed to be better than Adam Dunn?).

Josh Hamilton- Supposedly hitting 2nd or 4th in a great offensive ballpark, the only question is health. I would think he's a lock for 30 HRs if he was able to stay on the field all season. The upside is just too great to leave him outside the top 250.

And that wraps up the OFers. Up next is my favorite positon- the starting pitchers!! Check back soon for part 1 looking at the overvalued arms.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.