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Thursday, March 6, 2008

The Principles of War, continued (Simplicity)

One of the characteristics that distinguish real Generals from voyeuristic wannabes is the former’s commitment to their profession. Real Generals absorb everything and anything they can find about their job, their mission, and their operations. They literally live their job. A General must know as much as possible in order to develop uncomplicated plans, because the result of misunderstanding or confusion is frequently failure. The genius of a good military plan is often described with the principle of war ‘simplicity’. But how does this apply to drafting a fantasy baseball team?

There are many excellent sources of baseball information. Almost everything about the game that can be analyzed is analyzed, and the information is equally available to everyone. On the Internet, even a casual search (FBG is a good place to start) provides a linkage to every sort of numerical dissection, from strikeout-to-walk ratios to batting-average-on-balls-in-play, injuries, roster movement, and so on. In any league, each player has access to the same information, opinion, and statistical breakdowns as every other, yet every league has only one winner in September.

There is no definitive “A Ha!” moment when it comes to learning about your team, your league, and the game; no snapshot in time when you will have learned everything that may be known. The key question that every owner must ask is “how much do I need to know to win?” In a H2H Yahoo league, for instance, playing against anonymous opponents who may range from a 10-year old novice to a retired 72-year old retired CEO, the range of the opponents’ knowledge will vary widely. In your competitive local league, in which you may have grown up with the members, you’ll have a pretty good idea of who is an expert and who is done by the All Star break. In both cases, and every one in between, you need to know enough, and that is a tough limit to define. Do you need to know the differences among Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill and Howie Kendrick? Maybe. Maybe not.

Regardless, the more you know about the players and the rules, the better prepared you will be to stay on task during your draft, to KISS (Keep It Simple, Sir). Your scoring may be as basic as Runs/BA/RBI/HR for batters, but your depth of knowledge about the players will allow you to push forward through the fog of uncertainty and make the best selections for your situation.

Simplicity is a misnomer. The word implies ‘easy’, but the simplest successful plans are always rooted in a vast depth of knowledge. The point is, every owner needs to know enough, but a General needs to know more.

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